scholarly journals What Works to Control COVID-19? Econometric Analysis of a Cross-Country Panel

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liming Chen ◽  
David Raitzer ◽  
Rana Hasan ◽  
Rouselle Lavado ◽  
Orlee Velarde

The paper examines the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as captured by its reproduction rate 𝑅t. Using cross-country panel data, the paper finds that while lockdown measures have strong effects on 𝑅t, gathering bans appear to be more effective than workplace and school closures. Ramping up the testing and tracing of COVID-19 cases is found to be especially effective in controlling the spread of the disease where there is greater coverage of paid sick leave benefits. Workplace and school closures are found to have large negative effects on gross domestic product compared with other measures, suggesting that a more targeted approach can be taken to keep the epidemic controlled at lower cost.

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemant Kulkarni ◽  
Harshwardhan Vinod Khandait ◽  
Uday Wasudeorao Narlawar ◽  
Pragati G Rathod ◽  
Manju Mamtani

Whether weather plays a part in the transmissibility of the novel COronaVIrus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is still not established. We tested the hypothesis that meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and rainfall) are independently associated with transmissibility of COVID-19 quantified using the basic reproduction rate (R0). We used publicly available datasets on daily COVID-19 case counts (total n = 108,308), three-hourly meteorological data and community mobility data over a three-month period. Estimated R0 varied between 1.15-1.28. Mean daily air temperature (inversely) and wind speed (positively) were significantly associated with time dependent R0, but the contribution of countrywide lockdown to variability in R0 was over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Thus, abating temperatures and easing lockdown may concur with increased transmissibility of COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. e97-e98
Author(s):  
Sarah Gander ◽  
Kate Flood ◽  
Sarah Campbell ◽  
Katie Bonner

Abstract Primary Subject area Social Paediatrics Background The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a major global threat that emerged in 2020. Many countries have enacted policies such as mandatory school closures, business closures, and self-quarantining to keep people at home and prevent further spread of the virus. Previous research has shown that pandemics and subsequent disease containment measures negatively affect children and families, both psychosocially and economically. Objectives The current study explores the potential psychosocial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent disease containment measures on a number of domains (employment/business, education, finances, medical care, access to medication, technology, children/family, access to community services) through an online survey. The current abstract focuses on the emotional well-being of children and how families have been affected by the restrictions and changes related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/Methods Participants were asked to complete an online survey through a secure portal. The survey consisted of questions about household demographics and socio-economic status (SES), as well as five psychometric scales measuring satisfaction with life, psychological well-being, anxiety, depression, and substance use, and specific questions about how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted respondents’ daily lives in the previously identified domains. This is the first of four longitudinal surveys that will be conducted throughout this study. Results A total of 571 participants completed the survey. Of these participants, 41.3% identified as being a parent or guardian with children under 18. The focus of this abstract is the subset of respondents with children. Roughly three quarters of participants identified that their children were emotionally impacted by COVID-19, the school closures, or missing friends or family (Yes = 46.6%; Somewhat = 30.5%). Parents also reported loss of access to childcare, disruptions to their visits with their children living outside the home, and feeling like they could not access timely medical care for their children. Demographic information and other relevant responses and information can be found in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Conclusion The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will be felt for years to come and will shape an entire generation of children. Even in the current sample, which consisted largely of individuals from medium-high SES households, most reported that children had been impacted emotionally. Understanding and mitigating the impact on children and adapting resources in the short term and the long-term to meet the growing needs of our communities must be top priorities for pediatricians and community service providers.


2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 01018
Author(s):  
Crina Ionescu ◽  
Mihaela Iordache ◽  
Emilia Țițan

Research background: As COVID-19 is posing unprecedented challenges, the governments as well as the individuals have to adapt to the shift towards a new lifestyle. The preventing measures against the spread of the novel coronavirus has important consequences on economy sectors both at global and national level. In this regard, it is the right time to accelerate the development of the digital tools and technologies that can help neutralize or at least mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19. Purpose of the article: Therefore, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the current situation of digitization, focusing on the main transformations in recent months. Methods: Throughout the paper, there can be distinguished both qualitative and quantitative approach. The methods used include a secondary research from official information and primary quantitative research obtained from a conducted survey that explains the importance and the impact of digitization on economy in the face of a global pandemic. Findings & Value added: The article highlights the impact of digitization on the economy by comparing the findings from Romanian economy with other EU countries. It is noted that in areas where the digitization was more developed or where the adaptation to the new conditions imposed by the crisis generated by COVID-19 has been faster, the impact was significantly lower as well.


2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Verzani ◽  
Carla Bizzarri ◽  
Laura Chioma ◽  
Giorgia Bottaro ◽  
Stefania Pedicelli ◽  
...  

AbstractAt the end of 2019, an emerging atypical pneumonia called COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), caused by the novel coronavirus defined as SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), was first reported. COVID-19 rapidly expanded leading to an epidemic in China, followed by a global pandemic during the year 2020. In few weeks Italy was assaulted by a severe health emergency, constraining the Italian government to put in place extraordinary restrictive measures, such as school closures and a strict lockdown extended to the entire country at the beginning of March 2020. Since the beginning of lockdown, the Endocrinology Unit of Bambino Gesù Children’s Hospital has recorded a rapid increase of the outpatient consultations for suspected precocious or early puberty. We have now retrospectively analyzed all the consultations recorded in the database of our outpatient clinic from March to September 2020, and compared them with the consultations recorded in the same database from March to September 2019. Our preliminary data suggest a significant increase of precocious puberty cases in girls during the first period of COVID-19 pandemic. Further investigations in larger cohorts of children are needed in order to correlate the observed increase of precocious puberty with specific pathogenic factors.


Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Anna Davy ◽  
Michał Wielechowski

The paper aims to identify groups of countries characterised by a similar human mobility reaction to COVID-19 and investigate whether the differences between distinguished clusters result from the stringency of government anti-COVID-19 policy or are linked to another macroeconomic factor. We study how COVID-19 affects human mobility patterns, employing daily data of 124 countries. The analysis is conducted for the first and second waves of the novel coronavirus pandemic separately. We group the countries into four clusters in terms of stringency level of government anti-COVID-19 policy and six mobility categories, using k-means clustering. Moreover, by applying the Kruskal–Wallis test and Wilcoxon rank-sum pairwise comparison test, we assess the existence of significant differences between the distinguished clusters. We confirm that the pandemic has caused significant human mobility changes. The study shows that a more stringent anti-COVID-19 policy is related to the greater decline in mobility. Moreover, we reveal that COVID-19-driven mobility changes are also triggered by other factors not related to the pandemic. We find the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components as driving factors of the magnitude of mobility changes during COVID-19. The greater human mobility reaction to COVID-19 refers to the country groups representing higher HDI levels.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Jie Geng ◽  
Hai-Yang Zhang ◽  
Lin-Jie Yu ◽  
Chen-Long Lv ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractNationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trung Tran ◽  
Anh-Duc Hoang ◽  
Tien Trung Nguyen ◽  
Viet-Hung Dinh ◽  
Nguyen Yen Chi ◽  
...  

A dataset was constructed to examine Vietnamese student’s learning habits during the time schools were suspended due to the novel coronavirus - SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), in response to a call for interdisciplinary research on the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Elsevier, 2020). The questionnaires were spread over a network of educational communities on Facebook from February 7 to February 28, 2020. Using the snowball sampling method, researchers delivered the survey to teachers and parents to provide formal consent before they forwarded it to their students and children. In order to measure the influence of students’ socioeconomic status and occupational aspirations on their learning habits during school closures, the survey included three major groups of questions: (1) Individual demographics, including family socioeconomic status, school type, and occupational aspirations; (2) Student’s learning habits, including hours of learning before and during the period of school suspension, with and without other people’s support; and (3) Students’ perceptions of their self-learning during the school closures. There was a total of 920 clicks on the survey link, but only 460 responses accompanied by consent forms were received. Non-credible answers (e.g., year of birth after 2009, more than 20 hours of learning per day) were eliminated. The final dataset included 420 valid observations.


Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Yuxia Liang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractStrict interventions were successful to control the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China. As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection and disease, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact surveys data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact tracing information from Hunan Province. Daily contacts were reduced 7-9 fold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. Children 0-14 years were 59% (95% CI 7-82%) less susceptible than individuals 65 years and over. A transmission model calibrated against these data indicates that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. While proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they reduce peak incidence by half and delay the epidemic. These findings can help guide global intervention policies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-74
Author(s):  
Jibrin Katun Mohammed ◽  
Abdullahi Alhaji Aliyu ◽  
Usman Abubakar Dzukogi ◽  
Abdulafeez Abiodun Olawale

The housing market over the years has been impacted by various factors in different ways. This review paper examines the growing literature on the impact of COVID-19 on the housing market to ascertain its positive and negative effects. Thus, a total of 40 published conference papers, thesis, academic journal articles, and others obtained from secondary sources were reviewed and revealed that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in some scenarios had positive and negative impacts on the housing market. The paper found that the positive impacts include a rise in housing prices, increase in housing supply and reduction in mass evictions in some locations, while the negative impacts are on housing prices, demand and supply, constraints in mortgage return maintenance and delay in the construction of new housing apartments. The paper, therefore, concludes that both positive and negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are felt on the housing market globally. These thereby form a basis for further studies on the growing impacts of the pandemic concerning the housing market.


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