scholarly journals Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Jie Geng ◽  
Hai-Yang Zhang ◽  
Lin-Jie Yu ◽  
Chen-Long Lv ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Ecological Analysis ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractNationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals Effect of Weather on COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality in Lagos, Nigeria

Scientifica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Christian Ogaugwu ◽  
Hammed Mogaji ◽  
Euphemia Ogaugwu ◽  
Uchechukwu Nebo ◽  
Hilary Okoh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
Weak Negative Correlation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic with more than 4 million confirmed cases and over 280,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. Evidence exists on the influence of temperature and humidity on the transmission of related infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study therefore explored the effects of daily temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Lagos state, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Correlation analysis was performed using incidence data on COVID-19 and meteorological data for the corresponding periods from 9th March to 12th May, 2020. Our results showed that atmospheric temperature has a significant weak negative correlation with COVID-19 transmission in Lagos. Also, a significant weak negative correlation was found to exist between temperature and cumulative mortality. The strength of the relationship between temperature and the disease incidence increased when 1 week and 2 weeks’ predetection delays were put into consideration. However, no significant association was found between atmospheric humidity and COVID-19 transmission or mortality in Lagos. This study contributes more knowledge on COVID-19 and will benefit efforts and decision-making geared towards its control.

Bargaining under social distancing requirements: Effects of face masks on socio-economic decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramzi Fatfouta ◽  
Yulia Oganian
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Exchange ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Face ◽  
Human Social Behavior ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Face masks play a pivotal role in the control and prevention of respiratory diseases, such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite their widespread use, it is not known how face masks affect human social interaction. In this behavioral economics study (N = 475), we examined how mask-wearing modulates individuals’ likelihood of acceptance of unfair monetary offers in an iterated social exchange. Overall, participants accepted more offers, including more unfair offers, from mask-wearing opponents than from opponents without a mask. This effect was enhanced when participants ascribed more altruistic motives to their interaction partner. Importantly, this pattern of results was only present for surgical face masks, but not when a non-medical cloth face covering was used. This is the first study to uncover a new phenomenon, the face-mask effect, in which face masks can alter human social behavior.

scholarly journals The Novel Coronavirus Disease-COVID-19: Pandemic and Its Impact on Environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 13-21
Author(s):  
Mayur Gautam ◽  
Sneha Kumari ◽  
Shrestha Gautam ◽  
Ranjay Kumar Singh ◽  
R. S. Kureel
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Health Centers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Central Pollution Control Board ◽  
Normal Water ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Positive Effect

The global disturbance caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a number of effects and impacts on human beings and environment. The widespread coronavirus has caused diminishment worldwide in human lives and financial movement, inspite of the fact that typically major cause for concern, the inclining down of human movement and intervention shows a positive effect on the environment and climate. Industrial and transport outflows effluents have decreased measurable data bolsters the clearing of toxins and contamination in the air, soil and water. This impact is additionally in differentiate to carbon outflows, which was shot up by 5 percent after the worldwide financial related crash over a decade prior. As a result of boost investing on fossil fuels utilize to kick begin the worldwide economy. Water bodies have too been clearing and the Yamuna and Ganga as well as other rivers have seen critical advancement since the authorization of across and complete nationwide lockdown from 23rd March to 3rd June, 2020 as well as partial lockdown thereafter. Concurring to the real-time water observing information the normal water quality of 27 focuses of the Ganga seen in later days is reasonable for washing and proliferation of natural life and fisheries. Apart human lives, it has also been discussed that how to save our nature and environment by lockdown habit and guidelines need to be issued by Central Pollution Control Board disposed of precautionary material like gloves, mask, sanitizers and biomedical waste of medical health centers and quarantine centers.

scholarly journals Incorporating Human Movement Data to Improve Epidemiological Estimates for 2019-nCoV

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhidong Cao ◽  
Qingpeng Zhang ◽  
Xin Lu ◽  
Dirk Pfeiffer ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Infection ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reporting Data

AbstractEstimating the key epidemiological features of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic proves to be challenging, given incompleteness and delays in early data reporting, in particular, the severe under-reporting bias in the epicenter, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. As a result, the current literature reports widely varying estimates. We developed an alternative geo-stratified debiasing estimation framework by incorporating human mobility with case reporting data in three stratified zones, i.e., Wuhan, Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and mainland China excluding Hubei. We estimated the latent infection ratio to be around 0.12% (18,556 people) and the basic reproduction number to be 3.24 in Wuhan before the city’s lockdown on January 23, 2020. The findings based on this debiasing framework have important implications to prioritization of control and prevention efforts.One Sentence SummaryA geo-stratified debiasing approach incorporating human movement data was developed to improve modeling of the 2019-nCoV epidemic.

scholarly journals Prevention- Versus Promotion-Focus Regulatory Efforts on the Disease Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19: A Multinational Diffusion Study Using Functional Data Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 1069031X2096656
Author(s):  
V. Kumar ◽  
Ashish Sood ◽  
Shaphali Gupta ◽  
Nitish Sood
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data ◽  
Regulatory Focus ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Moderating Factors ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

International marketing has rarely explored the diffusion patterns of the spread of a disease or analyzed the factors explaining the differences in the disease incidence patterns. The rapid diffusion of the novel coronavirus has engulfed the entire world in a very short time. Many countries experienced different levels of disease incidence and mortality despite implementing similar nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Drawing on the regulatory focus theory, the authors propose a framework to conceptualize and investigate the comparative efficacy of diverse NPIs that countries could adopt to prevent or curtail the diffusion of the disease incidence and mortality. They categorize these NPIs as prevention focused (containment and closures) or promotion focused (relief measures and public health infrastructure) and discuss the moderating factors that enhance or impede their effectiveness. Employing functional data analysis, the authors examine a comprehensive data set across 70 countries. They find that prevention-focused interventions inhibit disease incidence, while promotion-focused interventions enhance the nation’s ability to respond to medical emergencies and augment people’s ability to isolate themselves and slow the spread. The authors also generate insights on how a reallocation of resources between prevention- and promotion-focused efforts influence the evolution of disease incidence and mortality, with various countries falling in different clusters.

scholarly journals What Works to Control COVID-19? Econometric Analysis of a Cross-Country Panel

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liming Chen ◽  
David Raitzer ◽  
Rana Hasan ◽  
Rouselle Lavado ◽  
Orlee Velarde
Keyword(s):  
Lower Cost ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
School Closures ◽  
What Works ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Targeted Approach

The paper examines the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as captured by its reproduction rate 𝑅t. Using cross-country panel data, the paper finds that while lockdown measures have strong effects on 𝑅t, gathering bans appear to be more effective than workplace and school closures. Ramping up the testing and tracing of COVID-19 cases is found to be especially effective in controlling the spread of the disease where there is greater coverage of paid sick leave benefits. Workplace and school closures are found to have large negative effects on gross domestic product compared with other measures, suggesting that a more targeted approach can be taken to keep the epidemic controlled at lower cost.

scholarly journals Spatial Analysis of Disinformation in COVID-19 Related Tweets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Masoud Forati ◽  
Rina Ghose
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
County Level ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Twitter Users ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Misinformation can amplify humanity's most significant challenges. As the novel coronavirus spreads across the world, concerns regarding the spreading of misinformation about it and also people downplaying the severity of it are also growing. This article investigates social media activity in May 2020, specifically Twitter, with respect to COVID-19, the themes of tweets, where the discussion is emerging from, disinformation shared about the virus, and its relationship with COVID-19 incidence rate at the state and county level. A geodatabase of all geotagged COVID-19 related tweets was compiled. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression was employed to examine the association between social media activity, population, and the spatial variability of disease incidence; our results suggest that MGWR could explain 96.7% of the variations. Moreover, Covid-19 related twitter dataset content analysis reveals a meaningful strong spatial relationship that exists between social media activity and known cases of COVID-19. Discourses analysis was conducted on tweets to index tweets downplaying the Pandemic or disseminating disinformation; the discourses analysis findings suggest that states in where twitter users spread more misinformation and showed more resistance to pandemic management measures in May are experiencing a surge in the number of cases in July.

scholarly journals Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (26) ◽  
pp. e2100664118
Author(s):  
Joel Persson ◽  
Jurriaan F. Parie ◽  
Stefan Feuerriegel
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), governments have introduced severe policy measures with substantial effects on human behavior. Here, we perform a large-scale, spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic. We derive human mobility from anonymized, aggregated telecommunication data in a nationwide setting (Switzerland; 10 February to 26 April 2020), consisting of ∼1.5 billion trips. In comparison to the same time period from 2019, human movement in Switzerland dropped by 49.1%. The strongest reduction is linked to bans on gatherings of more than five people, which are estimated to have decreased mobility by 24.9%, followed by venue closures (stores, restaurants, and bars) and school closures. As such, human mobility at a given day predicts reported cases 7 to 13 d ahead. A 1% reduction in human mobility predicts a 0.88 to 1.11% reduction in daily reported COVID-19 cases. When managing epidemics, monitoring human mobility via telecommunication data can support public decision makers in two ways. First, it helps in assessing policy impact; second, it provides a scalable tool for near real-time epidemic surveillance, thereby enabling evidence-based policies.

Epidemic risks during endoscopic examinations in the conditions of a specialized COVID-19 hospital in the pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection

2021 ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Sergey Anatolievich Babanov ◽  
Mikhail Lvovich Shteiner ◽  
Yuriy Iskhakovich Biktagirov ◽  
Aleksandr Viktorovich Zhestkov ◽  
Leonid Aleksandrovich Strizhakov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Respiratory System ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Daily Work ◽  
The World ◽  
Epidemiological Risk ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection has posed additional challenges for endoscopy services. Endoscopy departments face a high risk of spreading airborne respiratory diseases in their daily work. This is especially true for endoscopic departments and offices that perform bronchoscopic examinations. The world scientific community recognizes the highest epidemiological risk of personnel infection during any interventional manipulations and operations related to the respiratory system, including bronchoscopic interventions.

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