scholarly journals Eurizacija kao instrument monetarne politike Srbije?

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (168) ◽  
pp. 7-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikola Fabris
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Theoretical Aspect ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Monetary Regime ◽  
The Eu

The 1990s were characterized by two important yet mutually connected phenomena: the introduction of the euro as a national currency in the EU member countries, and recommendations for the introduction of dollarization as an instrument of attaining macroeconomic stability. Full dollarization (eurozation) is a relatively rare phenomenon. Yet in recent years it has attracted a lot of attention, which can be proved by an increasing number of studies dealing with this problem, as well as an increasing number of countries taking this course of action. This paper deals with the advantages and the disadvantages of dollarization, not only from the theoretical aspect but also on the basis of experience of other dollarized countries. The paper mostly deals with the analysis of the adequacy of dollarization (eurozation) as a monetary regime of Serbia. The unequivocal conclusion is that dollarization (eurozation) is not a monetary policy instrument that can be recommended to Serbia, the most relevant reasons for this being: the loss of capital surplus, the loss of some foreign exchange reserves, the danger of foreign exchange outflow through the balance of payment current account deficit, likely opposition from the EU, etc.

scholarly journals Arab Republic of Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Reform Effort ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Stabilization ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Reform Program ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances

Following a build-up of macroeconomic imbalances that had resulted in declining growth, rising debt, and a widening current account deficit, the Egyptian authorities undertook decisive policy actions since the launch of the reform program in November 2016. These efforts are increasingly yielding results in terms of restored market confidence, strengthening growth momentum, a narrowing of budget and current account deficits, and adequate foreign exchange reserves. Sustaining the reform effort will help secure macroeconomic stabilization and unlock Egypt’s potential for higher growth and much needed job creation.

MÜASİR ŞƏRAİTDƏ AZƏRBAYCANIN VALYUTA SİYASƏTİNİN TƏKMİLLƏŞDİRİLMƏSİ VƏZİFƏLƏRİ VƏ İSTİQAMƏTLƏRİ

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (05) ◽  
pp. 122-125
Author(s):  
Kamil Sayavush Demirli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Transit Service ◽  
Gas Balance

Key words: monetary policy, commodity trade foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, oil and gas, balance, transportation, transit service, international, capital, perspective

scholarly journals Ten years after the crisis in Hungary

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (s2) ◽  
pp. 121-142
Author(s):  
György Surányi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy ◽  
The Eu

Looking back to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, Hungary was among the first countries to be forced to make use of financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. The government, the MNB (the central bank of Hungary) as well as the domestic and foreign analysts cited the high public debt and the volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the crises. Though these were real weaknesses, this diagnosis was false as much as the following treatment. First and foremost, it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary to request outside financial assistance. The excessive fiscal tightening urged by the MNB only led to deepening of the crises. In general, the macropolicy – both fiscal and monetary policy – before, during and after the crises turned out to be painfully pro-cyclical. Due to the lack of sufficient reserves, the MNB became virtually powerless to intervene and could only watch from the side-lines as events unfolded. The orthodox mind-set after replenishing the forex reserves prevented it from implementing a broad scale of unconventional measures to ease the crises. The fiscal authority lost its capacity long before to reduce the severity of the crises. Thus, the excessive and incorrect structure of fiscal correction coupled with an unjustified orthodox monetary policy, the contraction of the Hungarian economy went much beyond the inevitable amount.

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

scholarly journals Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-105
Author(s):  
Emiliano Libman ◽  
Gabriel Palazzo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Stabilization Process ◽  
Eventual Collapse

This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.

scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND YIELD CURVE OF INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT BOND

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
pp. 34-48
Author(s):  
Perdana Wahyu Santosa
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Positive Effect

Purposes – Indonesian government bond (known as SUN) plays an essential role in financing sustainable development in Indonesia and is a fixed income investment vehicle that attracts foreign investors. This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic factors or macro-risk on the yield curve of the SUN bond. Methodology – The type of data used in this study is secondary data in the form of BI Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Current Account Deficit, and crude oil prices in the 2010–2019 period. This study used the error correction model (ECM) method. The primary sources of data are some government bodies such as the Bank Indonesia website (www.bi.go.id) and the Indonesian site Bond Market Directory (www.idx.co.id). Findings – The results showed that the exchange rate had a positive effect in the long run, while the foreign exchange reserves effect inversely on the yield curve. The BI rate, inflation rate, and oil price have a positive effect on yield significantly. Furthermore, the current account deficit has no significant impact on the yield curve for the long term and short term. Implications – There are some managerial and policy implications to maintain an efficient, fixed income market. The authorities need to promote GDP growth, pursue fiscal efficiency, keep up the credit rating and risk of current account deficit, keep a relatively low BI rate and expected inflation rate. The yield curve fluctuation is influenced by changes in some macro-monetary factors above, which should consider in making SUN investment decisions. Limitations – This study has two limitations. Firstly, the future model could use a re-specification analysis that employs the VECM method that can result in impulse response function with a shock and period study; secondly, this study could be adding some variables including budget policy and political dynamics. Originality – This study contributes to the literature by examining the yield curve using the current account deficit related to government debt and macroeconomic factors that affect the bond yield curve. These findings can arrange a strategy to develop the bond market and obtain funding with a low cost of debt funds.

scholarly journals Pengaruh ekspor, utang luar negeri, neraca transaksi berjalan dan neraca transaksi modal terhadap cadangan devisa di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Graselita Aritonang ◽  
Amril Amril ◽  
Zulgani Zulgani
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves

The purpose of this study is to (1) see the description of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance for the period 1998-2017. (2) analyze the effect of exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The method used in this research is quantitative descriptive analysis with multiple regression model analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study show that the average development of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves is 11.87 percent, exports are 7.38 percent, foreign debt is 4.51 percent, the current account balance is 514.89 percent and the capital account balance is 66.92 percent. Based on the results of the analysis carried out by exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with a coefficient of determination of 98.37 percent. Keywords: Foreign exchange, export, Foreign debt, Current account, Capital account

scholarly journals Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Didenko ◽  
N. I. Morozko ◽  
N. I. Morozko
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.

At a Glance …

2000 ◽  
Vol 171 ◽  
pp. 2-3
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Golden Rule ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Current Account

•The economy will grow by 3.2 per cent in 2000 and 2.3 per cent in 2001.•Manufacturing will enjoy its best year since 1994, with output expanding by 2.4 per cent in 2000.•Inflation will stay just below the government's 2.5 per cent target in 2000 and 2001.•The current account deficit will widen to £17 billion in 2001.•The Prime Minister's new objective to raise health spending as a proportion of GDP to the EU average by 2005 can be met without breaking the golden rule.

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