scholarly journals The Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis: Revisiting the theory with new empirics for a spendthrift democracy

2021 ◽  
pp. 9-9
Author(s):  
Önal Konukcu
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Dynamic Structure ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Deficit Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This study revisits the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis in reference to the deficit-spending dynamics of Turkey in the period 1924 to 2008, during which the government was expanding along with the developing national economy and democracy. The empirical analysis of the hypothesis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, which is not only quite new in the literature on the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis but also superior to other single-equation cointegration approaches. The prevailing empirics for the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis reveal deficiencies in several respects, as they ignore the mixed orders of integration in regressors, the endogeneity of regressors, and the encompassing dynamic structure in the short and long runs. Within this context, the findings of this study imply the validity of the hypothesis for Turkey, providing empirical evidence on the premise that budget deficits financed by nontax sources are the main driving force behind the continuously increasing public spending in Turkey. This evidence is argued to be a reflection of the fact that the perceived tax price of public goods and services decreases with debtfinanced budget deficits over time.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals The Link Between Economic Growth, Crime and Deterrence Measures in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 24-40
Author(s):  
Adenuga Fabian Adekoya ◽  
Nor Azam Abdul Razak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Cost Of Crime ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Abstract The level of crime in Nigeria has become devastating and in order to put more sanity into the economy and the country at large, the Government has embarked on different deterrence measures in curbing crime. Thus, this study examined the interaction of deterrence measures with crime in order to see how economic growth was affected when they were used in curbing crime at different instances. That is, the interaction of deterrence measures with crime informed us how they have helped in lowering crime in Nigeria for a better economic growth to subsist. The deterrence measures considered in this work are in line with the rational choice theory being the cost of crime imposed on the society. Furthermore, this study considered data from 1975 to 2013 with the use of autoregressive distributed lag model. Moreover, the results showed that crime dependency on deterrence measures asymmetrically constituted means of lowering economic growth in the country. Hence, this study suggested that prosecution should be well funded and in order to curb crime and improve economic growth in Nigeria. That is, this would afford the country to reduce the congestion of prison inmates and thus, it would discourage long waiting trials.

scholarly journals Inflationary Impact of Funding Options for Budget Deficits in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
Apinran Martins ◽  
Ogiji Patrick ◽  
Laniyan Chioma ◽  
Usman Nuruddeen
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the inflationary impact of the various financing options for the federal government budget deficit which has accumulated overtime. Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and quarterly data over the period 2000Q1 to 2017Q2, the study found significant relationship between inflation and the current financing options of the Government. Overall, the result of our ARDL model affirm that the impact of fiscal spending in Nigeria on inflation is captured more in the short-run since none of the variables is significant in the long-run. In addition, the use of Banking System Financing to fund government deficits has better potentials as the optimal choice because its impact on inflation is insignificant. Federal Government Bonds as a tool for financing budget deficits is also considered an optimal choice because though it causes inflation to rise by the second quarter, but its impact on inflation is expected to fizzle out in the long-run. Ways and Means Advances on the other hand, was shown to have the highest inflationary impact and as such, its use as a tool for financing government deficit should be discouraged. We, therefore, recommend a couple of appropriate policy options for financing budget deficits in Nigeria namely monetary financing and the issuance of federal government bonds. On the policy side, more efficient public expenditure management. Capital market, co-financing arrangements with pension funds and issuance of project-tied bonds, would be beneficial.

scholarly journals Changes in Crude Oil Prices and the Flow of Government Revenue

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwunweike Stella ◽  
Achu Tonia Chinedu ◽  
Awa Kalu Idika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This work is set out as an investigation into the impact of change in oil prices on government revenue broken into oil and nonoil component. Drawing data from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and covering the period 1981 to 2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used because of its advantages over other regression techniques. It was found that changes in oil price affected oil revenue within the studied period leaving no significant impact on nonoil revenue. The result obviously reflects the Nigerian economy and its mono-product characteristic. It is therefore recommended that a conscious policy effort should be made to diversify the economy in a manner that makes revenue to the government multifarious functions.

scholarly journals Testing the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the case of Ethiopia: An autoregressive-distributed lag approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-49
Author(s):  
Sisay Demissew Beyene ◽  
Balázs Kotosz
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Government

The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests that when the government attempts to stimulate the economy by raising debt-financed government spending, consumption and demand do not increase but rather remain the same. The objective of this study is to test the existence of the REH in Ethiopia, using annual data from 1990 to 2011 and by employing the autoregressive-distributed lag cointegration approach. The study includes three variables (budget deficit, government consumption expenditure, and government debt) which contribute to the REH along with another variable. The results show that only the budget deficit and government consumption expenditure fulfil the REH. However, government debt fails to fulfil it. Thus, limited evidence of the existence of the REH is found in Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Nexus between Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Odisha, India: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-144
Author(s):  
Pratap Kumar Jena
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in agricultural research as it is observed that the climate change has unfavorably distressed the agricultural production in different regions in India. Therefore, the present study has empirically examined the relationship between climate change and agricultural production in the selected districts of Odisha, India using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model over the period 1993 to 2019. The study found that the climate variables have adversely affected the crops production in the districts of Odisha. In order to minimize the impact of climate change on crops production in the state, there must have implementation of various policies and adaptive strategies by the government and farmers.

scholarly journals Event Tourism Demand and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: An Econometrics View of the Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Sally Ann Yu-Ing Yap ◽  
Norazirah Ayob ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Increase ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Event Tourism ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Assessing the substantial economic benefits of event tourism will provide insight into the effectiveness of tourism event in Malaysia.The significance of the tourism event sector has the potential to boost Malaysia’s economic growth, increase the arrivalof international tourists, increase tourist expenditure and further job creations.This study empirically investigates determinantsof event tourism demand in Malaysia during the period of 1991Q1to 2016Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniqueis used to find the long-run cointegration relationshipsof the model. The model is further tested by employing diagnostic tests(Normality test, Serial Autocorrelation, Heteroscedasticity and Ramsey’s RESET test) and stability tests(CUSUM and CUSUMSQ). The empirical analysis of the boundstest indicatesthat there is a long-run cointegration among the variables under study. Besides that, the ARDL model produces reliable results,as all of the computed coefficientsof the independent variables are statistically significant with the expected signs. The findings are consistent witheconomic theory and the model passed all of the diagnostic tests.The findings of this study imply that event demand can be improved significantly when government spending,theexchange rate and tourist receipts increaseand the crude oil price decreases. Hence, government authorities and the private sector should createan integrated plan to enhancethe profit gained through the Malaysian economyfrom event tourism.

scholarly journals The Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Croatia

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-126
Author(s):  
Sonia Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Renewable Energy Investment ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Abstract This paper investigates the effect of renewable energy on economic growth in Croatia for the period 1996-2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique is used to find the long run relationships between renewable energy, energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical analysis indicates that renewable energy has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the short and long run. These findings indicate that the Croatian government can continue to boost renewable energy investment without impeding economic growth.

scholarly journals Primary Fiscal Performance, Economic Growth, and Public Debt in Lebanon

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-197
Author(s):  
Carole Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Fiscal Performance ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

Lebanese public debt has been accumulating since 1990, after the end of the civil war. Recently, concerns about the ability of the government to keep servicing its debt have emerged, particularly because the debt-to-GDP ratio reached almost 147% at the end of 2018. This study aims to examine whether a cointegrating relationship exists among primary fiscal performance, real economic growth, and public debt in Lebanon using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model between 2000 and 2018. The ARDL results suggest the non-existence of a cointegrating relationship and hence the unsustainability of the Lebanese public debt. The evidence of the short-run estimation indicates that better primary fiscal performance and a higher economic growth rate reduce Lebanese public debt in the short run. This study proposes that immediate reforms that increase the primary fiscal surplus and attract investors are crucial to prevent a debt crisis in the country.

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