Political Stability of Two-Party and Multiparty Systems: Probabilistic Bases for the Comparison of Party Systems

1984 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 929-951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manus I. Midlarsky
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Minimum Entropy ◽  
Multiparty Systems ◽  
Restoring Forces ◽  
The Stability

The stability of the American two-party system is examined from 1866 until 1980. Following the approach of Stokes and Iversen (1962), restoring forces are posited for presidential elections, but restraining forces also are suggested for congressional elections, leading to an equilibrium between the two in elections to the House. Points of maximum restoration in presidential elections are derived using autocorrelations, and these points suggest a pattern of second-term Republican victories every 28 years beginning in 1872.Equilibrium properties of the American two-party system lead to the twin criteria of representation and restraint in multiparty cabinet coalitions in order to achieve cabinet durabilities on the order of those found in two-party systems. Minimum entropy-minimum winning coalitions satisfy these criteria. Cabinet durabilities on the order of two-party systems can be achieved by means of a 44-55 percentage of the legislative seats won by the first party in a multiparty system.

Rurality and Party System Fragmentation in the Nigerian Presidential Elections of the Fourth Republic

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-85
Author(s):  
Cletus Famous Nwankwo
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Composite Measure ◽  
Singular Measures ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Fourth Republic ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Negative Effect

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of rurality on party system fragmentation in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic. The findings show that party system fragmentation (PSF) has been characteristically low in the Nigerian presidential elections and rurality does not significantly predict party system fragmentation. Rurality has a negative effect on PSF in all the elections studied except the 2003 election but only significant in the 2011 poll. Thus, the paper cast doubt on previous studies that indicate that striking rural-urban differences manifest in party system fragmentation in African elections and attribute it to previous studies’ measure of rurality. The paper argues that the use of a composite measure of rurality instead of singular measures of rurality might provide better analysis that helps us understand the effect of rurality on party systems. Also, it argues that in the study of the rural-urban difference in voting behaviour or political behaviours more broadly, data should be aggregated based on cities and non-city areas because cities have distinctive urban characters compared with non-city places. Analyses done on states or constituencies level may not reveal the rural-urban difference because states and constituencies usually have a mix of rural and urban population and other characteristics.

scholarly journals Regime Types or Party Systems: What Matters More For Political Instability In The Developing World?

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
M. Moniruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Party System ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Regime Types ◽  
What Matters

<p>Political stability is desired by every state. But is it contingent upon regime types or party systems? Existing studies on political stability suggest that regimes such as authoritarianism, democracy, and dictatorship and their variants have variously influenced political stability. Some have proved to be friendly with political stability in certain countries, while counterproductive for some other. However, the existing literature has exclusively focused on regime types alone neglecting the factor of party systems. This article argues that not only regime types but party systems also influence political stability. Based on data from Asia, Africa and Latin America this article examines the following four assumptions. Firstly, absolute monarchy and absolute authoritarianism together with no or one party system generally maintain political stability. Secondly, constitutional monarchies together with multiparty system generally maintain political stability. Thirdly, presidentialism together with dominant party system generally maintains political stability. And finally, parliamentarianism together with multi-party system is generally negatively related with political stability.</p>

You Have to Know Where to Look in Order to Find It: Competitiveness in Botswana's Dominant Party System

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-126
Author(s):  
Stephanie Burchard
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
National Level ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Multiparty Systems ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Sub Saharan

Dominant party systems are defined by a lack of party alternation at the national level; however, dominant party systems do not inherently preclude electoral competition at the macro level, the micro level, or both. Nonetheless, little systematic work has documented the competitiveness of elections under a dominant party system. This article describes the nature of competition under one of sub-Saharan Africa's most enduring dominant party systems, Botswana. By examining electoral outcomes at the constituency level, this article demonstrates that elections in Botswana produce significant levels of competition, especially when compared to other sub-Saharan countries. Furthermore, electoral competitiveness appears unrelated to the party system at large: namely, competitiveness is no less or greater under dominant party systems than under multiparty systems.

scholarly journals The determinants of Party System Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-129
Author(s):  
Riccardo Pelizzo
Keyword(s):  
Social Transformation ◽  
Party System ◽  
System Change ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Stability

This article examines what socio-economic factors are conducive to changes in the patterns of inter-party competition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The literature has in recent years paid considerable attention to measuring party system change, to identifying the consequences of party system instability for the proper functioning of democratic regimes, and to understanding what factors are responsible for the instability of party systems. In contrast to previous studies that view political change in general and party system change more specifically as the result of social transformation, development, modernization and change in the cleavage structure, this paper shows instead that poverty is the primary driver of party system change in the SSA region. In countries with high levels of poverty, political elites do enjoy little to no performance-based legitimacy. The lack of performance-based legitimacy is the reason why voters in such countries are willing to alter their voting habits and parties are unable to preserve their electoral fortunes over time—which is precisely why party systems do change. The literature showed that stable party systems are good for democracy. This paper shows that to enhance the stability of party system in SSA, poverty has to be reduced and possibly eradicated.

scholarly journals Forms of Inter-party Cooperation: Electoral Coalitions and Party Mergers

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raimondas Ibenskas ◽  
Nicole Bolleyer
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
System Development ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Structural Basis ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Electoral Coalitions ◽  
Analytical Scheme ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Functional Areas

This article is part of the special cluster titled Parties and Democratic Linkage in Post-Communist Europe, guest edited by Lori Thorlakson, and will be published in the August 2018 issue of EEPS Various forms of inter-party cooperation have important effects on party system fragmentation and stability in young democracies. However, the conceptualisation and measurement of these forms of inter-party cooperation and the examination of their consequences on party system development remain limited in the literature on parties and party systems. This research addresses this gap in the scholarship in three ways. First, we present the analytical scheme of different types of party cooperation. We argue that the forms of inter-party cooperation vary on two dimensions. The first dimension refers to their structural basis: the stability of the cooperation as captured by whether it is rule-based or, in other words, underpinned by shared rules that are mutually accepted. The second dimension refers to their scope: the number of functional areas of party life subject to cooperation. The two dimensions lead us to four basic forms of inter-party cooperation: (1) non-rule-based, functionally restricted coalitions; (2) rule-based, functionally restricted coalitions; (3) non-rule-based organization-wide mergers; and (4) rule-based organization-wide mergers. Second, we develop theoretical expectations on the frequency of these forms of inter-party cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe. Third, to test these expectations, we present empirical evidence on the number of electoral coalitions and mergers in the first six electoral periods in 10 countries in the region. The results of the analyses support our expectations: non-rule-based organization-wide mergers are rare. The other three forms of party cooperation (non-rule-based coalitions; rule-based coalitions; rule-based mergers) are fairly common in most countries in the region, although less so in the more recent electoral periods.

Party Systems: Types, Dimensions, and Explanations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsolt Enyedi ◽  
Fernando Casal Bértoa
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Informal Institution ◽  
Democratic Experience ◽  
The Stability

The study of political parties and party systems is intimately linked to the development of modern political science. The configuration of party competition varies across time and across polities. In order to capture this variance, one needs to go beyond the analysis of individual parties and to focus on their numbers (i.e. fragmentation), their interactions (i.e. closure), the prevailing ideological patterns (i.e. polarization), and the stability of the balance of power (i.e. volatility) in all spheres of competition, including the electoral, parliamentary, and governmental arenas. Together, these factors constitute the core informal institution of modern politics: a party system. The relevant scholarship relates the stability of party systems to the degree of the institutionalization of individual parties, to various institutional factors such as electoral systems, to sociologically anchored structures such as cleavages, to economic characteristics of the polity (primarily growth), to historical legacies (for example, the type of dictatorship that preceded competitive politics) and to the length of democratic experience and to the characteristics of the time when democracy was established. The predictability of party relations has been found to influence both the stability of governments and the quality of democracy. However, still a lot is to be learned about party systems in Africa or Asia, the pre-WWII era or in regional and/or local contexts. Similarly, more research is needed regarding the role of colonialism or how party system stability affects policy-making. As far as temporal change is concerned, we are witnessing a trend towards the destabilization of party systems, but the different indicators show different dynamics. It is therefore crucial to acknowledge that party systems are complex, multifaceted phenomena.

Party Choice and Support for Demagogues: An Experimental Examination

1969 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Jaros ◽  
Gene L. Mason
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Social Conflict ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Experimental Examination ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
Democratic Systems ◽  
American Party ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship of parties to democracy and to political stability has concerned scholars for years. Extant party systems have almost continually been under attack by reformers bent on achieving various objectives, among them greater party responsibility, greater honesty, and greater efficiency of governmental operation. But party systems have not suffered from a lack of defenders: reformers have often been engaged in vigorous debate. Such controversy, apart from the merits of the arguments on either side, focuses attention on a number of interesting empirical propositions about parties in democratic systems. These propositions, unfortunately, have not often been put to rigorous systematic test.For example, defenders of the American party system in particular point out that an important function of parties is the guiding of social conflict into moderate, non-revolutionary modes of expression. Attempts at reform, goes the argument, should be considered as to whether they might interfere with this beneficial function. Citizens are viewed as having inherent tendencies to perform destabilizing political acts or to vote for extremist political figures. Somehow, we are told, these citizens are restrained from indulging these immoderate predispositions by the party system. In a sense, the argument continues, parties save the great unwashed from themselves; all democrats should be thankful that they do and appreciate them for this service.

scholarly journals Looking at the Stability and Transformation of the Japanese Postwar Party System

1998 ◽  
Vol 13 (0) ◽  
pp. 27-49
Author(s):  
Jong-Won Lee
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party System ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Dominant Position ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Party Dominance ◽  
Near Future

The Japanese political system of 1946-1996 has often been defined by the continuous rule for four decades of the conservative Liberal Democratic party (LDP), which had held a majority of seats in the Diet between its formation in 1955 until it lost its majority in the Upper House (House of Councilors) in 1989. Under the Japanese political milieus, the LDP has been in a position of semi-permanent governance since 1955 except for a few years in the mid-1990s. The first questionable issue, here, is how the LDP had maintained its dominant position during that period and how one-party dominance system had sustained? How had electoral volatility affected the party system change? Can we expect a dramatic change in Japanese politics in near future? In relation to these questions, how can we apply the theories of comparative parties and party systems to 1946-1996 history of Japanese party politics.

Party Systems and Government Stability

1971 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Taylor ◽  
V. M. Herman
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Government Stability ◽  
Strong Relation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Opposition Parties

Arguments are presented for and against a series of hypotheses about the influence of the parliamentary party system on the stability of governments, and the hypotheses are tested against data on 196 governments in parliamentary democracies since 1945. A strong relation is found between the duration of governments and the fragmentation of the parliamentary party system and of the government parties, but the fragmentation of the opposition parties seems not to affect stability. One-party governments are more stable than coalition governments, and majority governments more than minority governments. The ideological dispersion of the parties—in the whole parliament, in the government, or in the opposition—does not explain stability any better than fragmentation, which is based upon only the number and sizes of parties; but the proportion of seats held by ‘anti-system’ parties (communists and neo-fascists, mainly) is a good indicator of stability. The best explanation of government stability found here is the combined linear influence of the size of the anti-system parties and the fragmentation of the pro-system parties.

13. Party systems

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Caramani
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Party System ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Competitive Interactions ◽  
Liberal Democracies ◽  
Multiparty Systems

This chapter examines how competition between political parties gives rise to different party systems. In liberal democracies, competition for power is based on popular votes. The shape and dynamics of party systems are determined by the electoral game, with parties as main actors. A party system is thus essentially the result of competitive interactions between parties. A party system has three main elements: which parties exist, how many parties exist and how big they are, and how parties behave. An obvious but important point is that party systems must be composed of more than one political party. The chapter begins with a discussion of the origins of party systems, followed by an analysis of the format of party systems, such as two-party systems and multiparty systems. It then considers the influence of the electoral system on party systems before concluding with an assessment of the dynamics of party systems.

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