Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of the Vote

1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 1103-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
David W. Romero
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Equilibrium Solution ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Multivariate Model ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Election Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
General Candidate

Most applications of spatial modeling to the problem of electoral competition are pessimistic regarding the prospects for candidate equilibrium in more than one policy dimension. Probabilistic models of the vote, however, increase the likelihood of equilibrium. We expand the probabilistic model to include measured nonissue variables, thereby representing the general multivariate model of behavioral research. For this model we offer a general candidate equilibrium solution and illustrate with some simulations based on 1988 National Election Study data. The more complicated one's model of voters' motivations, the greater appears to be the chance of locating a candidate equilibrium position in policy space.

A Directional Theory of Issue Voting

1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Rabinowitz ◽  
Stuart Elaine Macdonald
Keyword(s):  
Study Data ◽  
Spatial Theory ◽  
Symbolic Politics ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Dominant Paradigm ◽  
The U.S

From Stokes's (1963) early critique on, it has been clear to empirical researchers that the traditional spatial theory of elections is seriously flawed. Yet fully a quarter century later, that theory remains the dominant paradigm for understanding mass-elite linkage in politics. We present an alternative spatial theory of elections that we argue has greater empirical verisimilitude.Based on the ideas of symbolic politics, the directional theory assumes that most people have a diffuse preference for a certain direction of policy-making and that people vary in the intensity with which they hold those preferences. We test the two competing theories at the individual level with National Election Study data and find the directional theory more strongly supported than the traditional spatial theory. We then develop the implications of the directional theory for candidate behavior and assess the predictions in light of evidence from the U.S. Congress.

Do Politicians Shape Public Opinion?

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetsuya Matsubayashi
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Quasi Experimental

Most research on political representation focuses on how citizens’ ideology and partisanship influence their support for political candidates – leaving the question of whether (and how) elected officials influence citizens’ positions on political issues open to debate. The hypothesis tested here – using a unique, quasi-experimental design with American National Election Study data between 1956 and 2004 – is that Democratic representatives shift the opinions of constituents in the pro-Democratic and liberal direction, while Republican representatives shift constituents’ opinions in the pro-Republican and conservative direction. The findings show that incumbent representatives indeed move their constituents’ opinions in a particular direction, and that representatives have a stronger impact on constituents who are more frequently exposed to their messages.

The Decline of Political Partisanship in the United States: Negativity or Neutrality?

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 941-950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin P. Wattenberg
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
The United States ◽  
Study Data ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Partisanship ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Major Trend ◽  
Party Decline

This article examines attitudes towards the two major political parties in the United States from 1952 to 1980, using national election study data from open-ended likes/dislikes questions. The major trend which is found is a shift toward neutral evaluations of the parties. A reinterpretation of party decline in the electorate is offered, in which the much-discussed alienation from parties is largely rejected as an explanation. Rather, it is argued that the link between parties and candidates has been substantially weakened over the years and hence that political parties have become increasingly meaningless to the electorate.

The Media's Persuasive Effects: The Priming of Leadership in the 1988 Canadian Election

1994 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Mendelsohn
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Media Exposure ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Study Data ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
The Media

AbstractThis article examines the effect of the media during the 1988 Canadian election. Using National Election Study data, three questions are investigated: do those with different patterns of media exposure change their vote intentions at different times; do those with higher media exposure remain more stable in their vote intentions, and do the media prime leadership? The article argues that patterns of media exposure have an effect: those with higher exposure to the media lead the opinion of others by about one week, they are more stable in their vote intentions, and they are more likely to vote on the basis of their trust in the leaders than on issue positions (in this case, the Free Trade Agreement) or party identification. However, there were few differences between those who relied on television as opposed to print for their information.

Competing Visions of Parental Roles and Ideological Constraint

2006 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID C. BARKER ◽  
JAMES D. TINNICK
Keyword(s):  
Power Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Values ◽  
Parental Roles ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Children And Parents ◽  
George Lakoff ◽  
Proper Power ◽  
Using Data

This paper explores the etiology of ideological constraint in the United States. In an effort to gain understanding of the ideational elements of political socialization, we concentrate on a provocative new theory put forward by cognitive linguist George Lakoff. Lakoff argues that many people reflexively envision proper power relations between citizens and government based on their understanding of proper power relations between children and parents: “nurturant” visions of parental roles engender egalitarian and humanitarian political values, whereas “disciplinarian” visions of proper parenting predict political individualism and traditionalism. Using data obtained from the 2000 National Election Study, we consider the empirical mettle of this account.

Political Voice across Issues

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Seth Levine
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Economic Insecurity ◽  
Political Organizations ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
The Past ◽  
The People ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Look Back

This chapter examines patterns of political participation more broadly across time and space. It directly compares people's likelihood of becoming active based on which political issues they consider most important. The data for this analysis are drawn from the American National Election Study data from the past three decades. The chapter asks: If we look back over the past thirty years, have the people who consider insecurity issues to be most important also been less likely to spend resources on politics than those who consider other issues to be most important? Have they been less likely to donate money to political organizations? And, if they are in the labor force, have they been less likely to volunteer as well? Moreover, do these differences remain even after we take into account other differences between the types of people who prioritize economic insecurity issues versus those who consider other issues to be most important?

Do Americans View Financial Threats as Important Political Issues?

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Seth Levine
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Job Insecurity ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
The People ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
The Cost

This chapter describes in greater detail the objective situation facing Americans in four major areas of financial threats: job insecurity, healthcare costs, retirement, and the cost of college. It analyzes the politics of such threats among the mass public. It examines the extent to which the people who consider such issues important are facing them in their own daily lives, as opposed to a situation in which their concerns are reflective of what others are facing. The data for this chapter are drawn from several sources, including time series data from Gallup beginning in the early 1950s as well as American National Election Study data from the past three decades that (broadly) match the time frame in which the objective situation in these four areas has become more insecure.

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