A Directional Theory of Issue Voting

1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Rabinowitz ◽  
Stuart Elaine Macdonald
Keyword(s):  
Study Data ◽  
Spatial Theory ◽  
Symbolic Politics ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Dominant Paradigm ◽  
The U.S

From Stokes's (1963) early critique on, it has been clear to empirical researchers that the traditional spatial theory of elections is seriously flawed. Yet fully a quarter century later, that theory remains the dominant paradigm for understanding mass-elite linkage in politics. We present an alternative spatial theory of elections that we argue has greater empirical verisimilitude.Based on the ideas of symbolic politics, the directional theory assumes that most people have a diffuse preference for a certain direction of policy-making and that people vary in the intensity with which they hold those preferences. We test the two competing theories at the individual level with National Election Study data and find the directional theory more strongly supported than the traditional spatial theory. We then develop the implications of the directional theory for candidate behavior and assess the predictions in light of evidence from the U.S. Congress.

Understanding the Tax Revolt: Eight Explanations

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 963-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lowery ◽  
Lee Sigelman
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Symbolic Politics ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Proposition 13 ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Alternative Research

Numerous explanations of the tax revolt have been offered since California's adoption of Proposition 13 in 1978. Unfortunately, many of these explanations remain untested or have been tested inappropriately, and the explanations are often jumbled together in a fashion that precludes theoretical clarity. We extract eight explanations from the literature, each of which assumes that the tax revolt is a systematic national phenomenon that is a function of individual-level social, economic, and political factors. Having tested these explanations by means of a discriminant analysis of data from the 1978 American National Election Study, we find little empirical corroboration for any of them. This leads us to consider two alternative research programs, one of which interprets the tax revolt within a symbolic politics framework.

Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 436-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Kuklinski ◽  
Darrell M. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
United States Senate ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Economic Expectations

Past individual-level studies of economic voting (1) have incorrectly operationalized the model they employ by using past-oriented rather than future-oriented questions and (2) have failed to examine the level of economic voting in United States Senate elections. Using the 1978 National Election Study, we show that economic voting exists in Senate but not House elections, presumably due to the differences in electoral context. Even when economic voting occurs, however, there is no guarantee that the public will influence the direction of macroeconomic policy.

scholarly journals Network Effects in Blau Space: Imputing Social Context from Survey Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 237802311986859
Author(s):  
Miller McPherson ◽  
Jeffrey A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Attitudes And Beliefs ◽  
Sociological Analysis ◽  
Network Characteristics ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Network Variable ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study

We develop a method of imputing ego network characteristics for respondents in probability samples of individuals. This imputed network uses the homophily principle to estimate certain properties of a respondent’s core discussion network in the absence of actual network data. These properties measure the potential exposure of respondents to the attitudes, values, beliefs, and so on of their (likely) network alters. We use American National Election Study data to demonstrate that the imputed network features show substantial effects on individual-level measures, such as political attitudes and beliefs. In some cases, the imputed network variable substantially reduces the effects of standard sociodemographic variables, like age and education. We argue that the imputed network variable captures many of the aspects of social context that have been at the core of sociological analysis for decades.

A Spatial Analysis of Male and Female Unemployment in the USA

2015 ◽  
pp. 1797-1809
Author(s):  
Edmund J. Zolnik
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Right To Work ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The U.S

An analysis of male and female unemployment in the U.S. explores how gender affects spatial variation in unemployment. The effects of spatially-unlagged and spatially-lagged unemployment rates on the likelihood that individual men and women are unemployed are also explored. Using a recent tabulation of microdata from the American Community Survey, multilevel models of male and female unemployment are fit. Results indicate that age and occupation at the individual-level and a right-to-work dummy at the PUMA-level are the variables that best distinguish unemployed men and women. Results also indicate that unemployment for men is more clustered in space than unemployment for women. Finally, results indicate that the vast majority of the variation in unemployment for individuals in the U.S. is attributable to the personal characteristics of unemployed men and women, not the locational characteristics of high-unemployment places. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the latter result.

scholarly journals Opposition to Irish Travellers’ halting sites in the Republic of Ireland: Realistic group conflict or symbolic politics?

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-206
Author(s):  
Joel S. Fetzer
Keyword(s):  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Group Conflict ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Symbolic Politics ◽  
Irish Society ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Republic Of Ireland ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Perceptions Of Crime ◽  
The Republic

Widely reviled by even well-educated citizens of the Republic of Ireland, Travellers rank at the very bottom of today’s multiracial Irish society according to most any attitudinal measure. This research note uses multivariate ordinary least-squares regression of the 2007 Irish National Election Study to test two prominent explanations of such prejudice. Overall, data analysis confirms the theories of realistic group conflict and symbolic politics about equally. In particular, unemployment, occupation, and perceptions of crime support the first interpretation, while results for conservatism and multiculturalism lend credence to the second.

scholarly journals Marital strain trajectories over a quarter century and spouses’ loneliness: Couple-level and individual pathways

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 821-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kandauda A. S. Wickrama ◽  
Tae Kyoung Lee ◽  
Catherine Walker O’Neal
Keyword(s):  
Extended Period ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Marital Strain ◽  
Over 40 Years

Although research suggests that stressful marital experiences may lead to feelings of loneliness in later life, little is known about the influence of marital strain over an extended period of time on loneliness in later years. Thus, in the present study, drawing from family systems and cognitive theories along with common fate and actor–partner interdependence modeling approaches, we hypothesized a hybrid model comprised of two multilevel pathways explaining the persistent influence of marital strain on loneliness, including: (a) a couple-level pathway and (b) an individual pathway involving within-spouse and between-spouse effects. Specifically, we investigated the influences of individual- and couple-level trajectories of marital strain over a period of 25 years (from 1991 to 2015) on loneliness outcomes in later years with a sample of 257 couples in enduring, long-term (over 40 years) marriages. The results mostly supported both hypothesized pathways. Consistent with the pathway involving a couple-level process, couple-level trajectories of marital strain predicted couples’ later-life loneliness as reflected by both spouses’ reports of loneliness (shared perceptions). In addition, at the individual level, each spouses’ unexplained variances (unique perception) in marital strain trajectories predicted his/her own later-life loneliness outcomes (within-spouse effect or actor effect). Findings are discussed as they relate to intervention and prevention programs focusing on the well-being of married couples in later life.

Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of the Vote

1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 1103-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
David W. Romero
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Equilibrium Solution ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Multivariate Model ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Election Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
General Candidate

Most applications of spatial modeling to the problem of electoral competition are pessimistic regarding the prospects for candidate equilibrium in more than one policy dimension. Probabilistic models of the vote, however, increase the likelihood of equilibrium. We expand the probabilistic model to include measured nonissue variables, thereby representing the general multivariate model of behavioral research. For this model we offer a general candidate equilibrium solution and illustrate with some simulations based on 1988 National Election Study data. The more complicated one's model of voters' motivations, the greater appears to be the chance of locating a candidate equilibrium position in policy space.

The Rise of Third Parties in the 1993 Canadian Federal Election: Pinard Revisited

2004 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 581-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Éric Bélanger
Keyword(s):  
Third Parties ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Party Dominance

Abstract. This study proposes a new test of Maurice Pinard's theory on the rise of third parties applied to the case of the 1993 Canadian federal election. We assess the effect at the individual level of Pinard's factors (one-party dominance and grievances) on support for the Reform party and the Bloc Québécois using data from the Canadian Election Study. Logistic regression analyses of vote choice indicate that the extent to which the second major party was perceived to be electorally weak at the constituency level was a significant factor in leading some Western voters to support Reform. In Quebec, however, perceptions of predominance did not matter to a vote for the Bloc because the latter is a “radical” third party attracting support mostly on the basis of communal values and interests. The results further show that political grievances, but not economic ones, were a significant predictor of support for both third parties in that election.Résumé. Cette étude propose un nouveau test empirique de la théorie de Maurice Pinard concernant la percée électorale des tiers partis. L'impact des facteurs de Pinard (prédominance d'un parti et présence de griefs) sur l'appui au Parti réformiste et au Bloc québécois à l'élection fédérale canadienne de 1993 est vérifié au niveau micro-sociologique à l'aide des données de l'Étude sur l'élection canadienne. Les analyses de régression logistique du vote indiquent que la perception que certains électeurs de l'Ouest avaient de la faible compétitivité du second parti traditionnel dans leur circonscription les a encouragés à appuyer le Parti réformiste. Au Québec, les perceptions de prédominance n'ont cependant pas eu d'effet significatif sur le vote en faveur du Bloc en raison du fait que ce dernier est un tiers parti “ radical ” dont l'appui repose principalement sur des valeurs et des intérêts de groupe. Les résultats indiquent enfin que, contrairement aux griefs de nature économique, les griefs politiques régionaux ont significativement contribué au succès électoral des deux partis.

Mass Incarceration, Penal Moderation, and Black Prisoners Serving Very Long Sentences

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 655-688
Author(s):  
Antje du Bois-Pedain
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Mass Incarceration ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Moral Imperative ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The U.S

The prevalent criminal justice practices in the U.S. have produced levels and patterns of incarceration that fewer and fewer politicians, scholars, and citizens care to support. There seems to be widespread consensus that the system is indicted as unjust by its outcomes no matter how these outcomes came about. But if that is so, how can it be turned back? Who should be eligible for release, and on what grounds? This article addresses the position of black prisoners serving very long sentences. Many of these prisoners are at risk of missing out under current legislative and administrative proposals designed to reduce overall levels of imprisonment. Partly this is due to the fact that the wrong of mass incarceration is often understood as a wrong suffered at the collective level by what has come to be referred to as “overpunished communities.” It is unclear how the existence of that collective wrong affects the permissibility of continued punishment at the individual level. This article develops an argument that, at the individual level, being a black prisoner serving a very long sentence gives rise to a moral entitlement for a review of the need and justification for continued incarceration. The article outlines the basic shape of a clemency scheme devised especially for these prisoners as a moral imperative for a reform process intended to remedy penal injustice.

American Voter Turnout

2019 ◽  
pp. 15-34
Author(s):  
Daron R. Shaw ◽  
John R. Petrocik
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
First Century ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
History Of ◽  
Voting Requirements ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The U.S

This chapter provides a brief history of voter turnout in the U.S. It documents growth from a small electorate to one that mobilized some 80 percent of eligible voters by the middle of the nineteenth century, and a decline to lower turnout through much of the twentieth and into the twenty-first century despite repeated extensions of the franchise and less restrictive registration and voting requirements. Variation in contemporary turnout is examined in some detail in order to clarify the individual-level relationships that lead to the conventional wisdom concerning a partisan bias to turnout. Differences in turnout and party dynamics with otherwise comparable countries are also assessed.

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