scholarly journals An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947–1986

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 928-941 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Roderick Kiewiet ◽  
Langche Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Logit Model ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
Pairwise Comparisons ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Unconditional Probability ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Binary Choices ◽  
Career Options

Most previous research on congressional career decisions has focused on one of two binary choices—between retiring and running for reelection, or between running for reelection and seeking higher office. But most of the time, representatives face all three choices simultaneously. Employing a “mother logit” model, we estimate the effects of relevant variables both on pairwise comparisons (conditional probabilities) and on the unconditional probabilities of choosing each one of these three alternatives. Probably most intriguing is our finding that a member's age has little or no effect upon the unconditional probability of running for reelection. The interrelatedness of career options is seen particularly clearly in the case of incumbents who had been redistricted out of their seats. When they had an opportunity to run for higher office, they were likely to take it. Only when they lacked such an opportunity were they more likely than other members to opt for retirement.

Conditional Probability

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenny Easwaran
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Unconditional Probability

Conditional probability has been put to many uses in philosophy, and several proposals have been made regarding its relation to unconditional probability, especially in cases involving infinitely many alternatives that may have probability 0. This chapter briefly summarizes some of the literature connecting conditional probabilities to probabilities of conditionals and to Humphreys' Paradox for chances, and then investigates in greater depth the issues around probability 0. Approaches due to Popper, Rényi, and Kolmogorov are considered. Some of the limitations and alternative formulations of each are discussed, in particular the issues arising around the property of “conglomerability” and the idea that conditional probabilities may depend on a conditioning algebra rather than just an event.

Student loan debt and visa status influence on career choices for hematology and medical oncology fellows in the United States.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 11024-11024
Author(s):  
Karam Al-Issa ◽  
Sravanti Rangaraju ◽  
Ahmad Abdelfattah Al-Hader
Keyword(s):  
Career Choice ◽  
Career Choices ◽  
Student Loans ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Student Loan ◽  
Student Loan Debt ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Loan Debt ◽  
Career Options

11024 Background: There are multiple factors influencing future career plans for US hematology/oncology fellows. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of student loan debt and visa status as potential factors affecting their career choices. Methods: A total of 159 US hematology/oncology fellowship programs were contacted, program directors forwarded the survey to current hematology/oncology fellows and recent graduates (classes of 2019, 2018 and 2017). The survey consisted of 13 questions regarding their student loan debt and visa status, research experience, initial career plan, current career for graduates, the influence of student loan debt and visa status on their career decisions (academic, private practice, industry), and whether or not their training programs had resources or mentorship to help them deal with those factors. We used a scale of 1-5 to determine how much each factor affected career choice (1 = extremely unaffected, 5 = extremely affected). Results: A total of 220 physicians have participated, 177 (80.5%) fellows and 43 (19.5%) graduates. For graduates, 35% had student loans during fellowship, 40% of them thought that their loans affected their career choice with a score of 4-5. 93% of graduates with student loans answered that they weren't aware of resources/mentorship to address their loans effect on their career. 44% of graduates were on J1/H1 visa during training, 74% of them thought that their visa status affected their career choice with score of 4-5. 63% of graduates who were on visa answered that they weren't aware of resources/mentorship to address visa status as a factor influencing their career options. For current fellows, 51% have student loans, one third of them thought that their loans affected their career choice with score 4-5. 77% of fellows with student loans answered that they weren't aware of resources/mentorship to address their loans effect on their career. 16% of current fellows are on J1/H1 visa, 66% of them thought that their visa status is affecting their career choice with score 4-5. 62% of fellows who are on visa answered that they weren't aware of resources/mentorship to address visa status as a factor influencing their career options. Conclusions: Hematology/oncology fellows report that student loan debt and visa status are important factors affecting their career decisions. The majority of hematology/oncology fellows in this survey weren’t aware of resources or mentorship to help deal with these factors. Mentors need to be aware of these factors to help fellows achieve their career goals.

Motivation of basketball players: a random-effects logit model for the probability of winning

2021 ◽  
pp. 81-85
Author(s):  
Silvia Bacci ◽  
Tijan Juraj Cvetković
Keyword(s):  
Logit Model ◽  
Team Sports ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Random Intercept ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
And Performance

In the sport psychology, the theories of motivation, such as the McClelland's need achievement theory and the Nicholls' achievement goal theory, play an important role in the team sports in motivating and encouraging team members. The practical implementation of these theories relies on detecting the variables that significantly affect the probability of winning so as to identify the key elements for the team motivation, the role assignment, and the decision-making process. As the relevant variables change in accordance with the type of sport, in this contribution we focus on the basketball. In detail, we consider the traditional box score of the U.S. National Basket Association (NBA) regular season games played in the seasons 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2020-21. Each season comprises of 82 games played by each of the 30 teams, which cumulates to 4920 games. Hence, data have a multilevel structure, with multiple observations for each team. To properly address the data structure, the probability of winning is modelled through a random-intercept logit model, where teams are the upper-level units and games are the lower-level units. Among the independent variables, we take into account several possible determinants of winning, such as number of assists, number of offensive rebounds, number of defensive rebounds, number of turnovers, number of stolen balls, percentage of free throws made, number of fouls made. Moreover, we devote a special attention to the effect of two more independent variables: the number of key-players that are missing or injured and a dummy if the team plays without a day of rest between consecutive games. The study provides insights in the determinants of success of the basketball games: these results can be used by the team decision makers to assign roles that favor motivation and performance of players and of team as a whole.

Political Survival Strategies: Political Career Decisions in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies

2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDUARDO LEONI ◽  
CARLOS PEREIRA ◽  
LÚCIO RENNÓ
Keyword(s):  
Career Choices ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
Survival Strategies ◽  
Political Survival ◽  
Political Ambition ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Progressive Ambition ◽  
Career Options ◽  
The Impact

As Brazilian federal deputies approach the end of their legislative terms, they have four major political career options: to retire from electoral politics; to run for state legislative office (regressive ambition); to run for re-election (static ambition); or to run for higher offices (progressive ambition). We developed a model that focuses on the determinants of political career choices by incumbent federal deputies in the 1998 Brazilian election. We argue that it is not the nature of political ambition that determines the career choices of federal deputies, but the evaluation of the risks and costs. A nested logit regression was used to estimate the impact of the distinct political strategies used by incumbents during their terms and their previous electoral campaigns in their choices of career. The main findings suggest that an incumbent's career choice is decisively influenced by the strategies they adopt to effectively use their resources.

Role of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy and Risk of Career Options on Career Decision-Making of Chinese Graduates

2014 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. 625-634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghua Ye
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Career Counseling ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
Career Decision ◽  
Career Decision Making ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Career Options ◽  
Different Levels

This study investigated the influence of Chinese graduates' career decision-making self-efficacy (CDMSE) and the moderating effect of career options on career decisions. Graduates (92 men, 119 women, 5 unreported gender; M age = 22.3 yr., SD = 1.2) from four different types of universities in Zhejiang Province participated in the study. CDMSE was measured with the CDMSE Scale for University Students, and participants rated their choices on 3 career options with different levels of risk. The results showed that participants were more likely to choose a high-risk option, and that career options moderated the relation between graduates' CDMSE and career decision. Graduate career counseling programs should encourage students to develop more reasonable career goals that match their skills.

scholarly journals A logic with higher order conditional probabilities

2007 ◽  
pp. 141-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoran Ognjanovic ◽  
Nebojsa Ikodinovic
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Probability Space ◽  
Possible Worlds ◽  
Axiomatic System ◽  
Probability Logic ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Unconditional Probability ◽  
Possible World ◽  
Intended Meaning ◽  
Probability Operators

We investigate probability logic with the conditional probability operators This logic, denoted LCP, allows making statements such as: P?s?, CP?s(? | ?) CP?0(? | ?) with the intended meaning "the probability of ? is at least s" "the conditional probability of ? given ? is at least s", "the conditional probability of ? given ? at most 0". A possible-world approach is proposed to give semantics to such formulas. Every world of a given set of worlds is equipped with a probability space and conditional probability is derived in the usual way: P(? | ?) = P(?^?)/P(?), P(?) > 0, by the (unconditional) probability measure that is defined on an algebra of subsets of possible worlds. Infinitary axiomatic system for our logic which is sound and complete with respect to the mentioned class of models is given. Decidability of the presented logic is proved.

scholarly journals Early surgical exposure for medical students: Efficacy and effect on choice of electives

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Connor Mcguire ◽  
Todd Dow ◽  
Emma Crawley ◽  
Kit Moran ◽  
Dafydd Davies
Keyword(s):  
Medical School ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
Multiple Choice Questions ◽  
Attrition Rates ◽  
Residency Programs ◽  
Surgical Exposure ◽  
Application Rates ◽  
Surgical Career ◽  
Career Options

Background: The number of students applying to surgical residency programs is declining. The reasons are multi- factorial, however early exposure has been shown to increase application rates and decrease residency attrition rates. The objective of this study is to evaluate the Surgical Exploration and Discovery (SEAD) program, an early surgical exposure program, on its efficacy and influence on medical school electives. Methods: Two online surveys were distributed to participants of the SEAD program from 2016-2017.The surveys addressed demographics and prior surgical exposure, efficacy of the program, and the role of SEAD on influencing choice of electives.The Likert scale was used to measure responses along with multiple-choice questions. Univariate descriptive statistics were completed on all variables. Results: All participants (n = 36, 100% response rate) reported that SEAD made them more likely to enter a surgical career (Mean: 4.1 out of 5, SD: 0.8), helped narrow down career options (Mean: 4.0, SD: 0.9), and improved comfort in the OR environment (Mean: 4.7, SD; 0.5).The majority of students were planning to, or had completed at least one surgical elective in second year (72.2%) and felt that the program will influence their choice of electives in fourth year (Mean: 4.0, SD: 0.6). Conclusion:The SEAD program is an effective method to help students make career decisions, offer early surgical exposure, and help with choice of medical electives.With a lack of early surgical exposure, and declining interest in surgical programs the SEAD program is a valuable addition to medical school education.

scholarly journals PROMOTING EFFECTIVE CAREER DEVELOPMENT IN GERONTOLOGY THROUGH APPLIED INTERGENERATIONAL PROGRAMS

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S568-S568
Author(s):  
Margaret M Manoogian
Keyword(s):  
Older Adult ◽  
Career Planning ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
Career Decision Making ◽  
Graduate Employment ◽  
Intergenerational Programs ◽  
Career Programs ◽  
Planning Models ◽  
Career Options ◽  
Employment Data

Abstract With the rise in global older adult populations, university programs need to produce an effective, gerontology-trained workforce (Silverstein & Fitzgerald, 2017). Career decision-making involves interactive learning (Super, 1990), as adults explore career options, engage in career learning, and understand curriculum integration within professional settings (Savickas, 2013). Gerontology faculty can utilize career planning models that integrate intergenerational engagement within the curriculum to aid student career decisions (Reardon, Lenz, Peterson, & Sampson, 2012). This paper provides an overview of a career planning model and highlights the ways intergenerational programs can be intentionally staged in research, service, and extracurricular domains to promote career planning and success in post-graduate employment. Data from our recent gerontology alumni survey including graduates since the program inception will be outlined to support the importance and success of developing strong applied intergenerational career programs in gerontology.

A Likelihood-Ratio Test of Twin Zygosity Using Molecular Genetic Markers

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Erickson
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Genetic Markers ◽  
Likelihood Ratio Test ◽  
Twin Pair ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Molecular Genetic ◽  
Allele Frequencies ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Unconditional Probability

AbstractThe importance of using multiple polymorphic genetic markers to determine unambiguously whether a twin pair is monozygotic (MZ) or dizygotic (DZ) has long been recognized. Concordance among a set of markers is used as evidence of monozygosity, as it would be improbable for DZ twins to be concordant at a large number of polymorphic loci. Several sources give a formula for the probability of two DZ twins sharing the same genotype at a locus, assuming knowledge of allele frequencies but not of either twin's genotype; this probability can be used to determine whether a set of markers will reliably distinguish between MZ and DZ status in a randomly selected twin pair. If the shared genotype is known, however, the likelihood-ratio test (LRT) of the null hypothesis of dizygosity against the alternative hypothesis of monozygosity takes into account the observed genotype and, by the Neyman-Pearson lemma, is the most powerful test of its size. The LRT is equivalent to conditioning on the genotype of one of the twins, and computing the probability, assuming DZ status, of the other twin sharing that genotype. The resultingpvalues are frequently lower than those produced by the unconditional probability, especially if rare alleles are observed. The unconditional probability can be recapitulated from conditional probabilities by averaging across all of the conditioned sibling's possible genotypes. To illustrate properties of the LRT applied to multiple markers, the probability distribution of the LRTpvalue is computed from allele frequencies of twelve unlinked markers published in Elbaz et al. (2006) and compared with thepvalue computed from unconditional probabilities.

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