scholarly journals Building Future Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Lade ◽  
Paul Strickland ◽  
Elspeth Frew ◽  
Paul Willard ◽  
Sandra Cherro Osorio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Product ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
The Future

This chapter examines challenges for the future and other emerging ideas in the travel, hospitality and events sectors. The tourism industry is rapidly evolving, and change appears to be the dominant trend. Innovative ideas may serve as a future trend or penetrate an industry to generate a new product or service which becomes the norm and are sought out to maintain a vibrant, growing tourism industry. Fifteen future scenarios are explored with the intent to invoke thought and discussion on how change is embraced. The chapter concludes by suggesting that these are only some of the larger challenges faced by the tourism industry and many more issues need to be considered.

scholarly journals The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce: 2035

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura Petersen
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Immigration Policies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flexible Workforce ◽  
Asian Market

<p>Imagining the future is a tantalising thought, considering that we will never truly know what lies ahead. Despite this inability, envisioning the future has not remained trapped in the realm of mere science fiction fantasies, but is increasingly attempted by organisations, academics and governments. This thesis uses scenario planning to ask what will the future of the New Zealand tourism workforce look like in the year 2035. Scenario planning, as a method of futures studies, is an increasingly popular approach to envisioning the future and draws upon key drivers of change in the present to formulate plausible future scenarios. This provides decision makers with a space for discussion and stretches their thinking through rich storylines. This thesis adds valuable insight to both areas of workforce planning, and New Zealand’s valuable tourism industry and its workforce. It takes an alternatively qualitative scenario approach to holistically explore this topic.  The year 2035 was chosen to push the current industry discussions around the Tourism 2025 strategy even further into the future. A modified Delphi method guided the research, based on a similar scenario planning study by Solnet, Baum, Kralj, Robinson, Ritchie, and Olsen (2013) which focused on the tourism workforce of the Asia-Pacific region. This method adds truthfulness to the research and involves three rounds of surveys that draw upon the knowledge and consensus of experts within the tourism and workforce fields in New Zealand. From a list of ten drivers, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important and formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios. “Manaakitanga is Found Here” presents a world of closed immigration and a niche Asian tourist market, where the workforce relies on, and celebrates, local knowledge and culture. “Pick of the Labour Crop” encourages a flexible workforce for private profit within open immigration settings with a niche Asian market. “Struggling for Respect” warns of a future where tourism lacks national strategic importance with a struggling workforce, amongst closed immigration policies and a mass Asian market. Finally, “Cheap and Plentiful” explores how open immigration and a mass Asian market could push a flexible workforce and a cheaper tourism product, which damages the country’s industry and image.  The study reveals that some scenarios are more desirable than others, but regardless of which scenario unfolds, they each present various challenges and opportunities for the workforce.They emphasis the unpredictable nature of the future and stress the importance of flexibility in order to respond and adapt to changes. They also highlight the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates our Māori culture.</p>

scholarly journals The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce: 2035

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura Petersen
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Immigration Policies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flexible Workforce ◽  
Asian Market

<p>Imagining the future is a tantalising thought, considering that we will never truly know what lies ahead. Despite this inability, envisioning the future has not remained trapped in the realm of mere science fiction fantasies, but is increasingly attempted by organisations, academics and governments. This thesis uses scenario planning to ask what will the future of the New Zealand tourism workforce look like in the year 2035. Scenario planning, as a method of futures studies, is an increasingly popular approach to envisioning the future and draws upon key drivers of change in the present to formulate plausible future scenarios. This provides decision makers with a space for discussion and stretches their thinking through rich storylines. This thesis adds valuable insight to both areas of workforce planning, and New Zealand’s valuable tourism industry and its workforce. It takes an alternatively qualitative scenario approach to holistically explore this topic.  The year 2035 was chosen to push the current industry discussions around the Tourism 2025 strategy even further into the future. A modified Delphi method guided the research, based on a similar scenario planning study by Solnet, Baum, Kralj, Robinson, Ritchie, and Olsen (2013) which focused on the tourism workforce of the Asia-Pacific region. This method adds truthfulness to the research and involves three rounds of surveys that draw upon the knowledge and consensus of experts within the tourism and workforce fields in New Zealand. From a list of ten drivers, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important and formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios. “Manaakitanga is Found Here” presents a world of closed immigration and a niche Asian tourist market, where the workforce relies on, and celebrates, local knowledge and culture. “Pick of the Labour Crop” encourages a flexible workforce for private profit within open immigration settings with a niche Asian market. “Struggling for Respect” warns of a future where tourism lacks national strategic importance with a struggling workforce, amongst closed immigration policies and a mass Asian market. Finally, “Cheap and Plentiful” explores how open immigration and a mass Asian market could push a flexible workforce and a cheaper tourism product, which damages the country’s industry and image.  The study reveals that some scenarios are more desirable than others, but regardless of which scenario unfolds, they each present various challenges and opportunities for the workforce.They emphasis the unpredictable nature of the future and stress the importance of flexibility in order to respond and adapt to changes. They also highlight the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates our Māori culture.</p>

The future of the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis

2020 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Alaa Taleb Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Future

The present research aims at arriving the motives of the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis, in the first section, As well as the positions of regional and international countries in favor of this intervention and opposition to it, in the second section, And the out looking of the future of this intervention and keeping an open crisis in Syria by posing future scenarios and the likelihood of one of them, and the jungle in the third section.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Oceans ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 429-447
Author(s):  
Christian Dominguez ◽  
James M. Done ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.

scholarly journals Evaluation and re-understanding of the global natural gas hydrate resources

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-338
Author(s):  
Xiong-Qi Pang ◽  
Zhuo-Heng Chen ◽  
Cheng-Zao Jia ◽  
En-Ze Wang ◽  
He-Sheng Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Hydrate ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Material Balance ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Resource Assessment ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Natural Gas Hydrate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Recoverable Resources

AbstractNatural gas hydrate (NGH) has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973. At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far, among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources. If drawn in chronological order, the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend, reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time. A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend. The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46 × 1012 m3 at the year of 2050. The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10% of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir, consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources (TRR) in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches. Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources, only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply. It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.

scholarly journals Accessible tourism futures: the world we dream to live in and the opportunities we hope to have

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Michopoulou ◽  
Simon Darcy ◽  
Ivor Ambrose ◽  
Dimitros Buhalis
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Stakeholder Collaboration ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Policy ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Delphi Approach ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Future

Purpose Accessible tourism is evolving as a field of academic research and industry practice, set within a dynamic social context. The field is interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary. The purpose of this paper is to examine key concepts and global initiatives that will shape accessible tourism futures. Design/methodology/approach Three of the authors have extensive academic experience in the area and the fourth author is the Managing Director of the pre-eminent European Network for Accessible Tourism. In taking a limited Delphi approach to canvassing key areas likely to shape accessible tourism futures, the following concepts and policy initiatives were examined: motivations, dreams and aspirations of people with disability; demography; UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; destination competitiveness; universal design (UD); and the UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Findings A discussion of each of the above areas was placed in context to accessible tourism futures and to contextualise the papers that were selected for the special issue. The latter part of the paper outlines the contribution of each empirical paper to the issue discussing the approach, findings and implications. Stakeholder collaboration was identified as the key common theme of the papers and the factor for developing accessible tourism solutions, recognising the value of the market and capitalising on it. A collaborative approach is required to recognise the complementary nature of the different paradigms; to re-shape and transform the future of the accessible tourism industry. To assist in the development of accessible tourism futures, UD principles should provide a foundation to enhance the future competitiveness of tourism destinations and organisations. Originality/value The paper’s examination of the concepts and global policy considerations provides a strong academic and practitioner foundation for considering accessible tourism futures. In doing so, accessible tourism futures are shown to be affected by key concepts related to core tourism considerations and major policy initiatives on accessibility and sustainability. Yet, accessible tourism futures also have the potential to create their own momentum and contribute unique learnings on the diversity of tourism markets that will shape tourism concepts and global policy initiatives in their own right.

scholarly journals Sociotechnical imaginaries of a secure future

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Gerhold ◽  
Edda Brandes
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Security Technologies ◽  
Sociotechnical Imaginaries ◽  
The Future

AbstractThe article examines the increasingly important role played by technology in the domain of public security in Germany, illustrating its effects on social life. In order to illuminate developments that govern the adoption of security technologies and render them in their dependencies comprehensible, we present two plausible and consistent future scenarios for Germany 2035. Following Jasanoff and Kim, these scenarios are theoretically conceived as two competing “sociotechnical imaginaries” which implies different trajectories for shaping the future. In these imaginaries, security technologies condition social change, and vice versa, in a mutually interdependent process. On the basis of current literature in tandem with a structured scenario development process, we condensed the present sociotechnical imaginaries into two tangible future scenarios for the field of public security, illustrating its effects on how we live as a society. Our overarching goal is to identify key factors that will mediate future developments, and, by extension, to facilitate discussion on the type of future we find collectively desirable. The analysis of impact factors resulted in ten key factors that play a crucial role for the use of security technologies and serve as a leverage for shaping the future. Projections of these factors lead to two narrative scenarios “To Be Ahead” and “Turn Back The Clock”.

Research and Development of Self-Lubricating Bearing Materials

2013 ◽  
Vol 651 ◽  
pp. 198-203
Author(s):  
Xiu Ling Wang ◽  
Li Ying Yang ◽  
Shou Ren Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Temperature ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Metal Matrix ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Al Alloy ◽  
Temperature Resistance ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Temperature Resistance ◽  
Bearing Materials ◽  
New Type

It is significant and necessary to carry out the research and development of self-lubricating bearing. The current study of metal matrix self-lubricating bearing materials is summarized. A new type of high temperature self-lubricating Ti-Al alloy bearing materials is proposed. It is light, anti-friction, anti-corrosion and high temperature resistance (600 °C). The future trend is introduced in the end of this paper.

ROLE OF THE TOURIST SECTOR IN THE STRATEGY OF DIVERSIFICATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF STAVROPOL KRAI

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
A. N. KRIVENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stavropol Krai

Tourism is considered a strategic direction for the economic development of the region. The role it plays in creating the image and reputation of the region also affects the fate of other sectors of the economy. The tourism industry is constantly growing and represents the main source of income now and in the future for many countries and territories with a tourism vocation.

scholarly journals Cuing both positive and negative episodic foresight reduces delay discounting but does not affect risk-taking

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (8) ◽  
pp. 1998-2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Bulley ◽  
Beyon Miloyan ◽  
Gillian V Pepper ◽  
Matthew J Gullo ◽  
Julie D Henry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
Episodic Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Monetary Choice Questionnaire

Humans frequently create mental models of the future, allowing outcomes to be inferred in advance of their occurrence. Recent evidence suggests that imagining positive future events reduces delay discounting (the devaluation of reward with time until its receipt), while imagining negative future events may increase it. Here, using a sample of 297 participants, we experimentally assess the effects of cued episodic simulation of positive and negative future scenarios on decision-making in the context of both delay discounting (monetary choice questionnaire) and risk-taking (balloon-analogue risk task). Participants discounted the future less when cued to imagine positive and negative future scenarios than they did when cued to engage in control neutral imagery. There were no effects of experimental condition on risk-taking. Thus, although these results replicate previous findings suggesting episodic future simulation can reduce delay discounting, they indicate that this effect is not dependent on the valence of the thoughts, and does not generalise to all other forms of “impulsive” decision-making. We discuss various interpretations of these results, and suggest avenues for further research on the role of prospection in decision-making.

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