Possible Patterns of German Collapse
This chapter considers the prospects facing Nazi Germany amid World War II by reviewing the patterns of German collapse in 1918. The breakdown of resistance in World War I was in the first instance a military phenomenon, though its course and outcome were determined by the social, economic, and political structure of the German nation as a whole. The high command recognized as early as August 13 that the war was definitely lost. Before discussing possible patterns of German collapse in 1944, the chapter examines the differences between 1918 and today. It then describes alternative courses that will remain open if the United Nations remain united—that is, if Germany's political warfare aimed at splitting them and at concluding a negotiated peace with either Russia or the Western Powers is unsuccessful. One scenario when the United Nations are split is for the Nazis to establish a shadow government to deal with Russia.