scholarly journals Modelamiento matemático de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en China

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olegario Marín Machuca ◽  
Jessica Blanca Vargas Ayala ◽  
Ulert Marín Sánchez ◽  
Fredy Anibal Alvarado Zambrano ◽  
Elena Elizabeth Lon Kan Prado ◽  
...  

<p>Se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático que permita analizar el comportamiento de la mortalidad en la República Popular de China ocasionado por COVID-2019. Se aplicó el modelo logístico para los datos reportados entre 11 de enero y el 12 de abril del 2020. El modelo formulado fue linealizado y planteado en dos formas. La primera, evaluando el factor de corrección B, que hace las veces de cantidad máxima de fallecidos. Se determinaron los parámetros A, k y r, obteniendo el modelo (Ecuación 7), con un coeficiente de correlación r=-0,9660 y el coeficiente de determinación r^2×100=93,31 %. La segunda forma, con el mismo valor de B, introduciendo un factor de corrección para la variable independiente, t, que hace las veces de “periodo”. Se determinaron los parámetros A, k y r, obteniendo el modelo (Ecuación 10), con un coeficiente de correlación r=-0,9668 y el coeficiente de determinación r^2×100=93,48 %; lo que demuestra buena estimación del modelo (Ecuación 7 y Ecuación 10). Asimismo, se evaluó la velocidad de mortalidad, derivando, ordinariamente los modelos (Ecuación 7 y Ecuación 10), obteniendo los modelos de velocidad (Ecuación 8 y Ecuación 11); concluyendo que la máxima velocidad de mortalidad fue de 118 personas por día el día 24 de febrero de 2020.</p><p>Palabras clave: comportamiento, coronavirus, modelo logístico, mortalidad.</p><p> </p><p><strong>ABSTRACT </strong></p><p>A mathematical model has developed in order to analyze the behavior of mortality in the People's Republic of China caused by COVID-2019. The logistical model was applied for the data reported between January 11th and April 12th, 2020. The model formulated was linearized and raised in two forms. The first, pre-evaluating correction factor B, representing the maximum number of deaths. Parameters A, k and r, were assessed obtaining the model (Equation 7), with a Pearson correlation coefficient r=-0,9660 and the coefficient of determination r2x100=93.31%. The second form, with the same value of B, by entering a correction factor for the independent variable t as a "period", Parameters A, k and r, were assessed obtaining the model (Equation 10), with a Pearson correlation coefficient r=-0,9668 and the coefficient of determination r2x100=93.48%; deducting good estimation of the model (Equation 7 and Equation 10). In addition, the death rate was evaluated, ordinating the models (equations 7 and 10), and obtaining the speed models (Equation 8 and Equation 11); describing the maximum death rate was 118 people per day on February 24th 2020.</p><p>Keywords: behavior, coronavirus, logistical model, mortality.</p>

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-141
Author(s):  
R. Deden Adhianto

This research aims to know how much the effetc of loan to deposit ratio (LDR) against earning per share (EPS) at PT Bank BNI Tbk. The method that is used in this research is quantitative method. By taking samples of research from 2008 to 2017. Based on the analysis of the data, it indicates that the loan to deposit ratio has strong relation with earning per share as of the value of pearson correlation coefficient is 0,902%. Loan to deposit ratio also has positive and significan effect on the earning per share with a coefficient of determination amounted to 81,36 % and T test results showes t calculate>t table amounted to (5,898>2,360) confidence level (0,05) with degrees of freedom 8 therefore Ho rejected and H1 accepted. The suggestion given to maintain level the BI’ LDR standar, to avoid problem decrease in CAR standar and result high EP.


Author(s):  
Ihor Babyn

Keywords: milk As a result of long-term operation of the milk-conducting lines of milking machines on their internal surfaces various in composition, properties, thickness, strength of adhesion to the deposition surface of alkaline and acidic nature are formed. Their presence leads to bacterial contamination of milk, resulting in a decrease in its quality and shelf life. The process of washing the elements of milking machines is one of the most important technological operations, the efficiency of which depends on the level of primary contamination of milk. The purpose is to investigate the operating parameters of the air injector operation of the milkweed flushing system of the milking plant and to substantiate their rational values. As a result of numerical modeling in the software package STAR-CCM + and experimental studies of the process of washing the milk line of the milking plant using an injector, the dependence of the change in the speed of pressure and the value of the degree of purity of the milk line at different values of its diameter from the working vacuum injection time and injection injection time pauses of the air injector. Comparing the theoretical and experimental dependences of the Fisher pressure velocity changes, the Pearson correlation coefficient and the determination coefficient can confirm the adequacy of theoretical studies. Comparing the theoretical and experimental dependence of the degree of purity of the milk line by Fisher's criterion, the Pearson correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination can confirm the adequacy of theoretical studies. Solving the compromise problem, which minimizes the value of the rate of change of pressure at the highest value of the degree of purity of the milk line for different values of the diameter of the milk line obtained the corresponding rational parameters of the modes of operation of the injector.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-53
Author(s):  
Vicente Benavides-Córdoba ◽  
Mauricio Palacios Gómez

Introduction: Animal models have been used to understand the pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension, to describe the mechanisms of action and to evaluate promising active ingredients. The monocrotaline-induced pulmonary hypertension model is the most used animal model. In this model, invasive and non-invasive hemodynamic variables that resemble human measurements have been used. Aim: To define if non-invasive variables can predict hemodynamic measures in the monocrotaline-induced pulmonary hypertension model. Materials and Methods: Twenty 6-week old male Wistar rats weighing between 250-300g from the bioterium of the Universidad del Valle (Cali - Colombia) were used in order to establish that the relationships between invasive and non-invasive variables are sustained in different conditions (healthy, hypertrophy and treated). The animals were organized into three groups, a control group who was given 0.9% saline solution subcutaneously (sc), a group with pulmonary hypertension induced with a single subcutaneous dose of Monocrotaline 30 mg/kg, and a group with pulmonary hypertension with 30 mg/kg of monocrotaline treated with Sildenafil. Right ventricle ejection fraction, heart rate, right ventricle systolic pressure and the extent of hypertrophy were measured. The functional relation between any two variables was evaluated by the Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: It was found that all correlations were statistically significant (p <0.01). The strongest correlation was the inverse one between the RVEF and the Fulton index (r = -0.82). The Fulton index also had a strong correlation with the RVSP (r = 0.79). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the RVEF and the RVSP was -0.81, meaning that the higher the systolic pressure in the right ventricle, the lower the ejection fraction value. Heart rate was significantly correlated to the other three variables studied, although with relatively low correlation. Conclusion: The correlations obtained in this study indicate that the parameters evaluated in the research related to experimental pulmonary hypertension correlate adequately and that the measurements that are currently made are adequate and consistent with each other, that is, they have good predictive capacity.


Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
Charles Carlson ◽  
Vanessa-Rose Turpin ◽  
Ahmad Suliman ◽  
Carl Ade ◽  
Steve Warren ◽  
...  

Background: The goal of this work was to create a sharable dataset of heart-driven signals, including ballistocardiograms (BCGs) and time-aligned electrocardiograms (ECGs), photoplethysmograms (PPGs), and blood pressure waveforms. Methods: A custom, bed-based ballistocardiographic system is described in detail. Affiliated cardiopulmonary signals are acquired using a GE Datex CardioCap 5 patient monitor (which collects ECG and PPG data) and a Finapres Medical Systems Finometer PRO (which provides continuous reconstructed brachial artery pressure waveforms and derived cardiovascular parameters). Results: Data were collected from 40 participants, 4 of whom had been or were currently diagnosed with a heart condition at the time they enrolled in the study. An investigation revealed that features extracted from a BCG could be used to track changes in systolic blood pressure (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.54 +/− 0.15), dP/dtmax (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.51 +/− 0.18), and stroke volume (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.54 +/− 0.17). Conclusion: A collection of synchronized, heart-driven signals, including BCGs, ECGs, PPGs, and blood pressure waveforms, was acquired and made publicly available. An initial study indicated that bed-based ballistocardiography can be used to track beat-to-beat changes in systolic blood pressure and stroke volume. Significance: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no other database that includes time-aligned ECG, PPG, BCG, and continuous blood pressure data is available to the public. This dataset could be used by other researchers for algorithm testing and development in this fast-growing field of health assessment, without requiring these individuals to invest considerable time and resources into hardware development and data collection.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Omolola M. Adisa ◽  
Muthoni Masinde ◽  
Joel O. Botai

This study examines the (dis)similarity of two commonly used indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed over accumulation periods 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month (hereafter SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12, respectively) and Effective Drought Index (EDI). The analysis is based on two drought monitoring indicators (derived from SPI and EDI), namely, the Drought Duration (DD) and Drought Severity (DS) across the 93 South African Weather Service’s delineated rainfall districts over South Africa from 1980 to 2019. In the study, the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and periodogram dissimilarity estimates were used. The results indicate a positive correlation for the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and a positive value for periodogram of dissimilarity in both the DD and DS. With the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity, the study demonstrates that the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and the SPI-3/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while the SPI-6/EDI pair shows the highest similar values for DS. Moreover, dissimilarities are more obvious in SPI-12/EDI pair for DD and DS. When a periodogram of dissimilarity is used, the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and SPI-6/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while SPI-1/EDI displayed the highest similar values for DS. Overall, the two measures show that the highest similarity is obtained in the SPI-1/EDI pair for DS. The results obtainable in this study contribute towards an in-depth knowledge of deviation between the EDI and SPI values for South Africa, depicting that these two drought indices values are replaceable in some rainfall districts of South Africa for drought monitoring and prediction, and this is a step towards the selection of the appropriate drought indices.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 87 (5) ◽  
pp. 708-711
Author(s):  
Matthew W. Gillman ◽  
Bernard Rosner ◽  
Denis A. Evans ◽  
Laurel A. Smith ◽  
James O. Taylor ◽  
...  

Previous studies of childhood blood pressure have shown tracking correlations, which estimate the magnitude of association between initial and subsequent measurements, to be lower than corresponding adult values. Inasmuch as this disparity could arise from failing to account for a larger week-to-week variability in children, blood pressure was measured for 4 successive years, on four weekly visits in each year, and with three measurements at each visit, using a random-zero sphygmomanometer, in a cohort of 333 schoolchildren aged 8 through 15 at entry. Ninety percent of subjects had measurements in 1 or more years of follow-up. For all follow-up periods (1, 2, and 3 years from baseline), the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) for both systolic and diastolic blood pressure rose substantially with the number of weekly visits used to calculate each subject's yearly blood pressure (P &lt; .0001). For systolic pressure, the 3-year r values for 1, 2, 3, and 4 visits were .45, .55, .64, and .69, respectively. For diastolic pressure (Korotkoff phase 4), the corresponding values were .28, .41, .47, and .54. These higher multiple-visit estimates of tracking approximate published adult values and raise the possibility that prediction of adult blood pressure from childhood measurements may be improved by averaging readings from multiple weekly visits.


2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 0810025
Author(s):  
李硕 Li Shuo ◽  
韩迎东 Han Yingdong ◽  
王双 Wang Shuang ◽  
刘琨 Liu Kun ◽  
江俊峰 Jiang Junfeng ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. 208-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haomiao Zhou ◽  
Zhihong Deng ◽  
Yuanqing Xia ◽  
Mengyin Fu

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document