scholarly journals Macroeconomic determinants of MIR interest rate margin in the euro area

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-53
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stability Index ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Fixed And Random Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

Abstract This study aims to examine the determinants of the MIR interest rate in the Euro area for the period 2003Q1-2015Q3. By employing Fixed and Random Effects as econometric methodologies, I examine whether the MIR rate is affected by the following macroeconomic factors: unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP growth, political stability index, and wages as percentage of GDP. All these factors have been found to be significant drivers of the MIR rate and thus, they have to be taken into consideration when designing macro-prudential policies. The findings in this paper provide alternative explanations for the empirical evidence concerning interest rate spreads behaviour.

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Factors on Credit Growth in the Albanian Banking System

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Shingjergji ◽  
Marsida Hyseni
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of some macroeconomic and bankhttp://ejes.euser.org/issues/may-august-2015/Ali.pdfing factors on credit growth in the Albanian banking system. From the literature review is noticed that the credit growth in the banking system is influenced by both macroeconomic and banking factors. We use credit growth as a dependent variable while as independent variables we use: GDP growth, inflation rate, unemployment rate, loan interest rate, capital adequacy ratio, bank size and NPL ratio. The relationship between credit growth and macroeconomic and banking factors was tested by using a regression model like the ordinary least squares (OLS). We take into consideration a period from 2002 – 2013 using quarterly panel data for the whole Albanian banking system with a total of 48 observations per each variable. The regression results find out that the credit growth in the Albanian banking system is positively related to GDP growth, inflation rate and capital adequacy ratio while is negatively related to unemployment rate, interest rate, non performing loans and bank size.

NPLs — The Solution Recipe for Albania

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Elona Shehu ◽  
Elona Meka
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
System A ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Asset Quality ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

The quality of the loan portfolio in Albanian banking system is facing many obstacles during the last decade. In this paper we look at possible determinants of assets quality. During the recent financial crisis commercial banks were confronted with deteriorating asset quality that threatened not only the banking industry, but also the stability of the entire financial system. This study aims to examine the correlation between non-performing loans and the macroeconomic determinants in Albania during the last decade. NPLs are considered to be of a high importance as they represent the high risk exposure of banking system. A solid bank with healthy assets increases the market efficiency. Our approach is based on a panel data regression analysis technique from 2005-2015. Within this methodology this study finds robust evidence on the existing relationship between lending interest rate, real GDP growth and NPLs. We expect to find a negative relationship between lending interest rate and asset quality. Further we assume an inverse relationship between GDP growth and non-performing loans, suggesting that NPLs decrease if the economy is growing. Furthermore this study proposes a solution platform, which looks deeper into the possibility of creating a secondary active market for troubled loans, restructuring the banking system or implementing the Podgorica model. This research paper opens a new lieu of discussion in terms of academic debates and decision-making policies.

scholarly journals On the Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: Evidence from Fully Modified OLS and Error Correction Model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
N. A. Okoro-Ugochukwu ◽  
C. A. Adenomon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Determinants Of Unemployment

This study employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of unemployment rate in Nigeria. To achieve this annual data on unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and population growth from 1981 to 2016 was collected from Central Bank Statistical Bulletins and the World Bank website. The ADF test revealed that the macroeconomic variables are stationary at first difference while the Cointegration test revealed that the variables are cointegrated. Using unemployment rate as dependent variable, the FMOLS model revealed that exchange rate and population growth are positively significantly related to unemployment rate, interest rate and inflation rate were negatively related to unemployment rate but only interest rate was significant. The short run relationship revealed that the coefficient of the ecm(-1) is negative and statistically significant at 5% level indicating that the system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at the speed of 48.93% yearly. This study concludes that high exchange rate and population growth can lead to increase in unemployment rate in Nigeria while the government should develop the industrial sector and non-oil sector in order to generate employment and boost export in Nigeria.

Cross-border merger and acquisition activities in Asia: the role of macroeconomic factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusnidah Ibrahim ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Asean Countries

Purpose This paper aims to examine the influence of key macroeconomic factors on the inward and outward acquisition activities of six ASEAN (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, over the 1996-2015 period. Design/methodology/approach The study uses alternative panel data methods, including pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed-effect estimators. Findings The results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate are the most important macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of cross-border mergers and acquisition outflows of the ASEAN-6 countries. Specifically, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive relationships with acquisition outflows, while interest rate and exchange rate exert significant negative influence. On the other hand, the authors find four significant macroeconomic factors explaining the trends of the inward acquisitions. Essentially, GDP, money supply and inflation rate have significant positive impacts on inward acquisitions, while the impact of exchange rate is negatively significant. Research limitations/implications Unavailability of data limits this study to pool six sample countries from ASEAN, instead of ten representative member countries. Practical implications The results of this study can signal to firms or investors, involving in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, where to direct foreign resources flows. Moreover, having the knowledge about the relative levels of market size and other macroeconomic factors in both home and host countries can be of great importance for investment decision. Therefore, policymakers of ASEAN countries should make appropriate macroeconomic policies that can stimulate inward and outward acquisitions. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is that it is the first to present the analysis of macroeconomic influences on the trends of inward and outward merger and acquisition activities in six ASEAN countries.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Manufacturing Output in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adegbemi Babatunde Onakoya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper examined the impact of the changes in the macroeconomic factors on the output of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. Preliminary evaluation of the data was conducted using both descriptive statistics and stationarity evaluation. The test indicated that not all the variables are normal. The occurrence of order integration at first level difference necessitated the deployment of the Johansen cointegration test. The findings revealed no short run association among manufacturing output and each of GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply and unemployment rate. Negative relationship existed amongst inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, broad money supply on one hand, and manufacturing output. The inflation rate and interest rate, were statistically insignificant. However, significant and positive relationship existed between GDP of the previous year and unemployment on the one hand and manufacturing output on the other, at 5 percent level. The results showed that manufacturing was a veritable engine of economic growth. The post estimation tests showed presence of serial correlation but evidence of heteroscedasticity existed which, made the model inefficient, but its estimator is still unbiased. The study recommended the harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policies for the attainment of macroeconomic stability and avoidance of rapid policy summersaults.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Size on Inflation in selected Developing Countries (2006-2014)

2018 ◽  
pp. 71-90
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

One of the serious challenges facing developing countries that are facing is the issue of inflation. Inflation creates serious challenges for economic agents as a result of the greatly damaging effects of economic and economic growth. Despite the general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is still no agreement between economists on the causes of its creation. The present study examines the impact of government size on inflation in 16 selected developing countries (Afghanistan, India, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina, Qatar, Singapore, Kuwait, Pakistan, Uruguay, Benon, Nepal, Mali, Vietnam and Bhutan) will be tested during the period from 2006 to 2014. The pattern examined for this purpose, using the combination (panel) data in the least squared method completely, for the investigated pattern for this purpose, using generalized least squares panel data, toinvestigate the effect of each of the variables of government size, the index of import value, interest rate, Money and quasi money growth rate and GDP growth rate used on the Inflation rate. The results of this research indicate that the Money and quasi money growth rate, interest rate and growth rate of the import value index had a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate, and the GDP growth rate had a negative and significant effect on the inflation rate. Also, the main independent variable of government size model has had a negative and significant impact on inflation in the studied countries.

scholarly journals Retail Space for Rent! Macroeconomic Determinants of Shopping Complex Occupancy Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 268-284
Author(s):  
Shan-Shan Goh ◽  
Tuck-Cheong Tang ◽  
Alex Hou-Hong Ng
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Occupancy Rate ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

This study proposes anad hoc equationwhich isapplied to estimatethe impactsof macroeconomic variableson occupancy rate of shopping complex. Thecandidatemacroeconomic determinantsare interest rate, inflation rate, share priceand Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whileasupply-sidevariable, total spaceis included.Using quarterly databetween 1992and 2015 froma small open economy-Malaysia, this study findsthat interest rate,and GDP both havea positive impact on shopping complex’s occupancy rate, and total space of shopping complex shows anegative sign.The non-causality tests offer that inflation rate indirectlycauses the occupancy rate of shopping complex. This study highlights somerelevant policy implications.

Estimating Barro misery index in democratic states with application in Albania: 2005 – 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Fejzi Kolaneci ◽  
Juxhen Duzha ◽  
Enxhi Lika
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Central Limit Theorem ◽  
Limit Theorem ◽  
Central Limit ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Misery Index ◽  
Fair Game

In the present study we develop a statistical analysis of the Barro misery index and its components in contemporary democratic states with application in Republic of Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014. BMI is calculated by the formula: BMI = ? + u – GPD + i, where BMI denotes quarterly Barro misery index, ? denotes quarterly inflation rate, u denotes quarterly unemployment rate, GDP denotes quarterly real GDP growth rate, i denotes nominal long-term interest rate. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is a fundamental theorem of Modern Probability Theory “Fair game” and “Effective market in week sense” are important concepts of Macroeconomics. Some results of the study include : Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly inflation rates in Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014 at the confidence 99. 9%. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 98. 8%. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is not effective at the confidence 97. 5% Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly unemployment rates in Albania during the specified period at the confidence 99. 9%. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 99. 9%. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is not effective at the confidence 99. 9% The official data of the quarterly GDP growth rate for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 77. 1%. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 86. 4%. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 99. 9%. The official data of the quarterly Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 96. 1%. The Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 84. 8%. The Barro misery index process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 63. 7%.

Macroeconomic Conditions Determining the Level and the Rate of Changes of Wages and Salaries in Poland in 2007-2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 297-316
Author(s):  
Walentyna Kwiatkowska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Average Wage ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Fair Wage ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

This study characterized and evaluated the level and rate of change in wages and salaries in Poland in 2007-2012 and analysed the main macroeconomic determinants of their development. The analysis present changes to average wage, minimal wage and fair wage. Their level and rate of change are determined by macroeconomic factors, particularly economic growth processes, changes in productivity of labour, inflation rate and the situation on the labour market. A quite strong correlation can be observed between the rate of changes of the real GDP and the development of average nominal wages. Inflation processes affect the growth of nominal wages but they lead to a decrease in real wages. The growth of the unemployment rate affected the reduction of the growth rate of nominal wages. 

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