scholarly journals External Debt in Bosnia and Herzegovina – An Empirical Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-82
Author(s):  
Jasmina Hurić-Bjelan ◽  
Azra Hadžiahmetović
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Research Focus ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
External Indebtedness

AbstractOver the last few decades, many countries in the world have been struggling with high indebtedness. This has been especially emphasized in periods of crisis, and this was not an exception during the last global economic crisis in 2009. The advent of the crisis has further increased the need for borrowing. Increasing indebtedness after the crisis was also characteristic of BiH economy, the country in our research focus, which had an increase of public external debt by over 100% over the last two decades.The paper focuses on the external indebtedness of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) over the period 2004-2017. The empirical part relies on dynamic modelling - Vector Autoregression Model, which is used to explore total external indebtedness. The empirical investigation implies that foreign-trade exchange deficits have had the greatest impact on rising indebtedness in BiH, while movements in EURIBOR interest rates have little influence in explaining this variability. The empirical investigation implies that macroeconomic policy in BiH, if it wants to keep the external debt under control over the longer time horizon, does need to focus on deficits in its foreign exchange more. One of inevitable priorities is to work on supporting production based of export from this economy.

The Monetary Policy Impact on the Dynamics of Russia’s Real Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-108
Author(s):  
Marina Tiunova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks

The article examines the influence of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia on the dynamics of real GDP and its components, real wages and employment from 2003 to 2016. Using the Bayesian structural vector autoregression model (BSVAR) with recent dataset, the paper provides the calculation of the extent of changes in the main Russia’s real sector indicators in response to monetary policy, money base and exchange rate shocks. The analysis allows to conclude that monetary policy leads to real variables changes in Russia. The expected contractionary monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia with higher interest rates had a statistically valid weak negative effect on real indicators.

scholarly journals The Effect of Economic Digitization on Financial Inclusion and International Trade in Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 115-122
Author(s):  
Rini Dwi Astuti ◽  
Purwiyanta Purwiyanta
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Causality Relationship

The rapid development of information technology has made economic digitization a necessity throughout the world, including Southeast Asia. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic digitization on financial inclusion and international trade using the Vector Autoregression Model analysis tool for ten countries in ASEAN for the 2017-2019 period. The results showed that international trade and financial inclusion variables could respond quickly to shocks in the variable of economic digitization. Economic growth can respond quickly to shocks in global trade variables and financial inclusion variables. There is no causal relationship between economic growth and international trade. However, there is a one-way causality relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion, where inclusion affects economic growth but not vice versa.

scholarly journals U.S. Interest Rate and Household Debt Sustainability: The Case of Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3759
Author(s):  
Jong Chil Son ◽  
Hail Park
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Gradual Increase ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Vulnerable Households ◽  
The U.S

This paper revisits the issue of household debt sustainability in Korea responding to changes in U.S. interest rates. We investigate not only the transmission channels from U.S. interest rates to domestic interest rates, using the Bayesian VAR (vector autoregression) model, but also the issue of identifying households that are vulnerable in terms of their debt repayments, and we execute projections for the upcoming years given conditional forecasts and various macroeconomic scenarios. The estimation results indicate that first, the domestic policy rate will likely increase and then stagnate conditionally on the path of the U.S. policy rates. Second, the ratios of vulnerable households over total indebted households, which has been growing since 2012, will likely expand mildly over the upcoming years given an approximately 1.6%p gradual increase in interest rates and stable macroeconomic environments. Finally, however, the projected trend of domestic interest rates can cause a rapid expansion in the ratios of vulnerable households, in conjunction with a series of combined negative shocks such as highly concentrated principal repayment schedules, sharp declines in housing prices, and the occurrence of a crisis.

scholarly journals Budget deficit-macroeconomic variables nexus in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 270-292
Author(s):  
Doris Syombua Philip ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

Aim/purpose – The aim of this paper was to establish the nexus between a budget defi- cit and selected macroeconomic variables in Kenya. This adds to the existing literature while the methodology and choice of the econometric tools used improve the predictabil- ity of the link between a budget deficit and macroeconomic variables. The results are relevant to policy makers as they may help improve understanding of budget deficit management. Design/methodology/approach – The study used time series data for the period from 1976 to 2018 and employed the Vector Autoregression model reinforced by the Keynesian Mundell–Fleming framework. Findings – The impulse response function derived from the vector autoregression model revealed that shocks from both interest rate and exchange rate had a positive impact on budget deficit. External debt servicing and current account deficit shocks had a negative impact on the budget deficit. Research implications/limitations – Interest rate and exchange rate policies remain key in reducing the growth of the budget deficit. Policies on external debt servicing, such as timely payment of debts and prudent investment of borrowed funds, will also reduce the budget deficit. Originality/value/contribution – The study employed transmission mechanism which involves multiple equations to establish the nexus between a budget deficit and macroe- conomic variables in Kenya. Keywords: budget deficit; selected macroeconomic variables, Kenya. JEL Classification: H60, H62, H68.

Remaking Retirement

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Older Persons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Older Population ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cost Of Education ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Key Aspects

Around the world, people nearing and entering retirement are holding ever-greater levels of debt than in the past. This is not a benign situation, as many pre-retirees and retirees are stressed about their indebtedness. Moreover, this growth in debt among the older population may render retirees vulnerable to financial shocks, medical care bills, and changes in interest rates. Contributors to this volume explore key aspects of the rise in debt across older cohorts, drill down into the types of debt and reasons for debt incurred by the older population, and review policies to remedy some of the financial problems facing older persons, in the United States and elsewhere. The authors explore which groups are most affected by debt, and they also identify the factors causing this important increase in leverage at older ages. It is clear that the economic and market environments are influential when it comes to saving and debt. Access to easy borrowing, low interest rates, and the rising cost of education have had important impacts on how much people borrow, and how much debt they carry at older ages. In this environment, the capacity to manage debt is ever more important as older workers lack the opportunity to recover for mistakes.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 20-29
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Cold Winter ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Initial Effect ◽  
Small Rise

Fuller data confirm the impression which we formed in May that OECD countries' total output did not change much in the first quarter. It probably increased by about ¼ per cent, with even this small rise attributable wholly to stock movements in the US. Final demand in the US fell and there were declines in total output in a number of countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and possibly Italy (for which there are conflicting estimates), white France achieved only marginal growth. The fall was notably severe in Germany, where construction suffered badly in the cold winter. This probably had a wider impact also, and, in North America at least, the initial effect of the slump in oil prices seems to have been depressive, with drilling activity sharply reduced, especially in the US. There may also have been a tendency for expenditure, perhaps on investment in particular, to be deferred in the expectation of falling prices and interest rates.

PSYCHOLOGY IN THE WORLD OF SCIENCE - 16th Days of Applied Psychology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grupa Autora
Keyword(s):  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Scientific Publication ◽  
Applied Psychology ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
International Conference ◽  
The World ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Education Science

The International Thematic Proceedia titled „Psychology in the world of science” is a publication from the 16th International Conference “Days of Applied Psychology” held on September 25th & 26th 2020 at the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Niš. This is a traditional annual nonprofit conference which has been organized since 2005 by the Department of Psychology of the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Niš, with the support and co-financing of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. The conference started with the idea of gathering researchers and practitioners who discuss the link between science and practice in different psychological areas. From the very start, this gathering has welcomed international participants, and year after year this number is on the rise. This scientific publication contains 18 peer-reviewed articles which can be classified as original scientific papers and as review papers. The authors of these manuscripts come from six countries: Portugal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Republic of Serbia.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document