Is Currency Appreciation or Depreciation Expansionary in Kosovo?

Abstract Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), this paper shows that real depreciation of the euro raises real GDP in Kosovo and that a lower real lending rate in the euro area, a higher real GDP in Germany, a lower real oil price, or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. More government deficit spending as a percent of GDP does not affect real GDP.

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Is Real Depreciation and More Government Spending Expansionary? The Case of Montenegro

Review of Economic and Business Studies ◽

10.1515/rebs-2017-0056 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 103-113

Author(s):

Yu Hsing

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Fiscal Policy ◽

Euro Area ◽

Government Spending ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Oil Price ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Lending Rate

AbstractEmploying an extended IS-MP-AS model to study the effects of the exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables in Montenegro, the paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro, a lower government spending-to-GDP ratio, a lower real lending rate in the Euro area, a lower lagged real oil price, a higher lagged real GDP in Germany, and a lower expected inflation rate would promote economic growth.

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Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan

The American Economist ◽

10.1177/0569434518819958 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 65 (1) ◽

pp. 123-130

Author(s):

Yu Hsing

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Stock Price ◽

Real Interest Rate ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Oil Price ◽

Real Gross Domestic Product ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Deficit Spending

Extending the IS-MP-AS model, this article finds that real depreciation helped to raise real gross domestic product (GDP) during 1999.Q1-2010.Q2 whereas real appreciation helped to increase real GDP during 2010.Q3-2016.Q4. In addition, a lower world real interest rate, a higher stock price, a higher real oil price or a lower expected inflation would increase real GDP. More deficit spending as a percent of GDP does not affect real GDP.JEL Classification: F41, E62

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Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ◽

10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0024 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 73-90 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Umit Bulut

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Oil Price ◽

Output Gap ◽

Inflation Expectations ◽

Inflation Target ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Target Output

Abstract This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, oil price, and EMBI in Turkey. To this end, the paper first conducts unit root tests in order to detect the order of integration of the variables. Then, the paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine whether there is a cointegration relationship among variables and to estimate long-run parameters. According to the findings, 12-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, and oil price and is negatively related to EMBI. Besides, 24-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate and USD/TL exchange rate and is negatively related to inflation target and EMBI. Upon its findings, the paper makes some inferences about the success of inflation targeting strategy in Turkey.

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Effects of the Global and Domestic Business and Economic Factors on Aggregate Output in Austria

Asian Business Research ◽

10.20849/abr.v1i1.7 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 37

Author(s):

Yu Hsing ◽

Mario Krenn

Keyword(s):

Inflation Rate ◽

Central Government ◽

Oil Price ◽

Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽

Economic Factors ◽

Aggregate Output ◽

The Real ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Effective Exchange ◽

Effective Exchange Rate

Based on a quarterly sample during 2003.Q1 – 2015.Q1, this paper finds that Austria’s aggregate output is positively affected by the lagged German or U.S. output, the real oil price and labor productivity and is negatively influenced by real effective exchange rate appreciation, the real lending rate, central government debt as a percent of GDP and the expected inflation rate. Hence, a rising oil price would not harm aggregate output, and recent depreciation of the euro would be beneficial to aggregate output.

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Macroeconomic Policies And Economic Growth: The Case Of Costa Rica

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v21i2.1493 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Yu Hsing ◽

Aristides Baraya ◽

Michael C. Budden

Keyword(s):

Costa Rica ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Costa Rican ◽

Real Output ◽

Font Size ◽

Macroeconomic Policies ◽

Currency Depreciation ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Deficit Spending ◽

The Stability

Applying the well-known GARCH/ARCH (Engle, 1982, 2001) model, we find that real output in Costa Rica is positively affected by real M2 money, the expected inflation rate, and the U.S. output and negatively influenced by the depreciation of the colon. Consistent with the Barro-Ricardo (1989) hypothesis, deficit spending does not affect real output. Therefore, the Costa Rican government may need to pursue a balanced budget and maintain the stability of the colon because the costs of currency depreciation outweigh the benefits.

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Effects of Depreciation and Appreciation of the Vietnamese Dong on Aggregate Output

Business and Economic Research ◽

10.5296/ber.v9i2.14523 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 45

Author(s):

Yu Hsing ◽

Minh Q. Huynh

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Stock Price ◽

Real Interest Rate ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Oil Price ◽

Aggregate Output ◽

The Real ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

The World ◽

The Government

Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000, 2006), this paper finds that real appreciation of the Vietnamese dong raised aggregate output during 2000-2012 whereas real depreciation of the Vietnamese dong increased aggregate output during 2013-2017. In addition, aggregate output is positively affected by the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the real stock price, and the real oil price and negatively influenced by the world real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. Therefore, real depreciation may affect aggregate output positively or negatively depending upon the stage of economic development.

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Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria

Empirical Economics ◽

10.1007/s00181-019-01814-1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 58 (1) ◽

pp. 107-137

Author(s):

Ines Fortin ◽

Sebastian P. Koch ◽

Klaus Weyerstrass

Keyword(s):

Mahalanobis Distance ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Austrian Economic ◽

Oil Price ◽

Economic Research ◽

Forecast Errors ◽

Forecast Horizon ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Research Institutes ◽

Economic Forecasts

AbstractIn this paper, we evaluate macroeconomic forecasts for Austria and analyze the effects of external assumptions on forecast errors. We consider the growth rates of real GDP and the demand components as well as the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The analyses are based on univariate measures like RMSE and Theil’s inequality coefficient and also on the Mahalanobis distance, a multivariate measure that takes the variances of and the correlations between the variables into account. We compare forecasts generated by the two leading Austrian economic research institutes, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), and additionally consider the forecasts produced by the European Commission. The results indicate that there are no systematic differences between the forecasts of the two Austrian institutes, neither for the traditional measures nor for the Mahalanobis distance. Generally, forecasts become more accurate with a decreasing forecast horizon, as expected; they are unbiased for forecast horizons of less than a year considering traditional measures and for the shortest forecast horizon considering the Mahalanobis distance. Finally, we find that mistakes in external assumptions, in particular regarding EU GDP and the oil price, translate into forecast errors for GDP and inflation.

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Impacts of the Exchange Rate and the Global Interest Rate on Real Output for Ten Selected Latin American Countries

Global Economy Journal ◽

10.1515/1524-5861.1830 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 1850253 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yu Hsing

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Latin American ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Early Years ◽

Currency Depreciation ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Monetary Policy Reaction Function ◽

Latin American Countries

This paper examines the effects of currency depreciation or appreciation, the changing global interest rate and other related macroeconomic variables on real GDP for ten selected Latin American countries, namely, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. The monetary policy reaction function is incorporated in the formulation of the model. There are several major findings. Currency depreciation hurts real GDP for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela whereas the real exchange rate and real GDP exhibit a backward-bending relationship for Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Peru, suggesting that currency depreciation increases real GDP in early years whereas currency appreciation raises real GDP in recent years. Except for Bolivia and Paraguay, a higher global interest rate reduces real GDP. Expansionary fiscal policy is effective for Argentina, Mexico and Paraguay. Except for Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela, a higher expected inflation rate reduces real GDP. Hence, currency depreciation may be contractionary or expansionary, depending upon the level of real GDP or the state of economic development.

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Impacts Of The Aggregate Economic And Financial Conditions On Output In An Emerging Economy

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v28i2.6847 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 28 (2) ◽

pp. 261

Author(s):

Yu Hsing ◽

Susan M. L. Zee ◽

Michael C. Budden ◽

Robert F. Cope III

Keyword(s):

Stock Price ◽

Market Equilibrium ◽

Seasonal Effects ◽

The Real ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Financial Conditions ◽

Goods Market ◽

Government Deficit ◽

The Government

This study formulates the theoretical model based on the money market equilibrium, the goods market equilibrium, and an augmented aggregate supply function. The sample ranges from 1996.Q1 to 2009.Q3 and has 55 observations. Applying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this paper finds that Brazils real GDP is positively impacted by real M2 money supply, the real stock price, world output and the expected inflation rate and is negatively influenced by the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real BRL/USD exchange rate and the U.S. Treasury bill rate. The first and third quarters exhibit seasonal effects. Therefore, expansionary monetary policy is more effective than deficit-financed expansionary fiscal policy, and pursuing real appreciation, promoting a robust stock market, and maintaining a strong world economy will benefit the Brazilian economy.

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Does the Mundell-Fleming Model Apply to Australia’s Economy?

Journal of Economics, Trade and Marketing Management ◽

10.22158/jetmm.v1n1p1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Yu Hsing

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Fiscal Policy ◽

Stock Price ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Oil Price ◽

Expected Inflation ◽

Model Apply

Applying an extended Mundell-Fleming Model to Australia, this paper finds that expansionary fiscal policy does not affect output whereas expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, a higher real stock price, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would increase output. Hence, the predictions of the Mundell-Fleming model works for Australia’s economy.

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