scholarly journals Does the Mundell-Fleming Model Apply to Australia’s Economy?

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Model Apply

<p><em>Applying an extended Mundell-Fleming Model to Australia, this paper finds that expansionary fiscal policy does not affect output whereas expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, a higher real stock price, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation rate would increase output. Hence, the predictions of the Mundell-Fleming model works for Australia’s economy. </em></p>

scholarly journals Effects of Depreciation and Appreciation of the Vietnamese Dong on Aggregate Output

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing ◽  
Minh Q. Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000, 2006), this paper finds that real appreciation of the Vietnamese dong raised aggregate output during 2000-2012 whereas real depreciation of the Vietnamese dong increased aggregate output during 2013-2017. In addition, aggregate output is positively affected by the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the real stock price, and the real oil price and negatively influenced by the world real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. Therefore, real depreciation may affect aggregate output positively or negatively depending upon the stage of economic development.

scholarly journals Is Real Depreciation and More Government Spending Expansionary? The Case of Montenegro

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-113
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Lending Rate

AbstractEmploying an extended IS-MP-AS model to study the effects of the exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables in Montenegro, the paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro, a lower government spending-to-GDP ratio, a lower real lending rate in the Euro area, a lower lagged real oil price, a higher lagged real GDP in Germany, and a lower expected inflation rate would promote economic growth.

Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-130
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Deficit Spending

Extending the IS-MP-AS model, this article finds that real depreciation helped to raise real gross domestic product (GDP) during 1999.Q1-2010.Q2 whereas real appreciation helped to increase real GDP during 2010.Q3-2016.Q4. In addition, a lower world real interest rate, a higher stock price, a higher real oil price or a lower expected inflation would increase real GDP. More deficit spending as a percent of GDP does not affect real GDP.JEL Classification: F41, E62

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umit Bulut
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Target Output

Abstract This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, oil price, and EMBI in Turkey. To this end, the paper first conducts unit root tests in order to detect the order of integration of the variables. Then, the paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine whether there is a cointegration relationship among variables and to estimate long-run parameters. According to the findings, 12-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, and oil price and is negatively related to EMBI. Besides, 24-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate and USD/TL exchange rate and is negatively related to inflation target and EMBI. Upon its findings, the paper makes some inferences about the success of inflation targeting strategy in Turkey.

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-113
Author(s):  
Adeleke Omolade ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector. Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis. Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks. Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.

scholarly journals PENGARUH LAJU PERTUMBUHAN INFLASI, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2007-2011

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 176
Author(s):  
Rully Putra Surya Pratama ◽  
Indah Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Stock Price Index

This research attempts to influence the inflation growth, the oil price dow jones industrial average to Composite Stock Price Index which is registred in indonesian stock exchange in the period of 2007-2011. The population in this research was the whole index in indonesian stock exchange (ISE). The sample was taken based on sampling purpodive. The data analysis technique used double linier regression. The dependent variable in this research was the growth of Composite Stock Price Index, while the independent variable was the inflation growth, the oil price and dow jones industrial average. The results of this research showed that the almost dependent variable used had effects for the growth of Composite Stock Price Index. The inflation rate growth variable did not have effects on Composite Stock Price Index growth, while the oil price rate variable and dow jones industrial average had effects on Composite Stock Price Index growth. Simultaneously, the independent variables examinedhere had effects on Composite Stock Price Index growth.

scholarly journals Effects of the Global and Domestic Business and Economic Factors on Aggregate Output in Austria

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing ◽  
Mario Krenn
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>Based on a quarterly sample during 2003.Q1 – 2015.Q1, this paper finds that Austria’s aggregate output is positively affected by the lagged German or U.S. output, the real oil price and labor productivity and is negatively influenced by real effective exchange rate appreciation, the real lending rate, central government debt as a percent of GDP and the expected inflation rate. Hence, a rising oil price would not harm aggregate output, and recent depreciation of the euro would be beneficial to aggregate output.</p>

Market nerves roil Turkey and Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Guidance

Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.

scholarly journals Empirical Test on Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Vietnam Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Tu Tran Thi Thanh ◽  
Linh Pham Thuy ◽  
Tiep Nguyen Anh ◽  
Thuy Do Thi ◽  
Tho Thi Hoai Truong
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Exogenous Factors

This research evaluates impact of monetary policy tools and fiscal policies on Vietnam’s stock market, as well as examines interaction between these two policies with the Vietnam stock price index. Utilizing Vector error correction model (VECM), with 9 variables and data monthly statistics from January 2002 to October 2015, this study confirms that there are links between monetary policy, fiscal policy with Vietnam's stock market. In addition, Vietnam’s stock market is also affected by exogenous factors, namely the world oil prices and the S&P500 index, especially when Vietnam's economy is opening up and integrated with the global economy.

scholarly journals Does the Mundell-Fleming Model Apply to Malaysia's Output?

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Rate Increase ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Value ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating System ◽  
Model Apply

Based on an extended Mundell-Fleming model, this paper finds that both fiscal expansion and monetary expansion raise output in Malaysia and that a lower real interest rate, a higher stock value, a lower real oil price and a lower expected inflation rate increase output. Hence, a managed floating system with no predetermined path of the exchange rate adopted by Malaysia may lead to better outcomes than the predictions of the Mundell- Fleming model that fiscal expansion does not raise output under a floating exchange rate but increases output under a fixed exchange rate whereas monetary expansion increases output under a floating exchange rate but does not affect output under a fixed exchange rate (Mankiw, 2019).

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