Analysis and forecast for gas demand using the VARMA model

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 1973-1990
Author(s):  
Tat'yana Yu. KUDRYAVTSEVA ◽  
Evgeniya A. KOZLOVA
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Financial Econometrics ◽  
The State ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Optimal Capacity ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
And Storage

Subject. The article assesses the fluctuations in market demand for gas to ensure market flexibility. Objectives. The aim is to develop a methodology for forming an optimal capacity portfolio of oil and gas industry enterprises, taking into account the specifics of the industry to ensure market flexibility, and its testing, on the case of forming a capacity portfolio for three market zones (NCG – Germany, GASPOOL and AVTP – Austria), using the VARMA model. Methods. We employ methods of financial econometrics and statistics. Results. The study reveals the specifics of the state of the European gas market, considers the prerequisites for ensuring flexibility, and unveils the main tools to ensure the required level of flexibility. It also offers and tests an algorithm, based on the VARMA model, for assessing and forecasting gas demand in three market zones. We substantiate the need for determining the degree of interrelation between the indices of complementary trade zones, and consider models enabling to assess interrelationships and modeling of projected prices and demand in the future. Conclusions. The findings may be used for integration of capacities into the capacity generation model, in order to calculate a portfolio of gas transportation and storage capacities, which will allow providing predicted fluctuations in gas demand without risk.

EVALUATION OF THE ABSOLUTE RESULTS OF THE LEADING COMPANIES OF THE OIL AND GAS COMPLEX: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Lyudmila V. Goloshchapova ◽  
◽  
Elena V. Maltseva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
The State ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Complex Problems ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
Statistical Indicators

The study is devoted to the analysis of the balance sheet profit of the leading companies in the oil and gas industry. The types of profits were considered, as well as the dynamics of the changes in indicators affecting their formation were analyzed. In addition, the article considers the composition and struc-ture of the balance sheet profit, factors affecting its size. Based on the financial statements of the companies, an idea of the state of profit in the companies «Rosneft», «Lukoil», «Gazprom» and «Tatneft» has been com-piled. The paper analyzes quantitative statistical indicators that reflect the results achieved from 2016–2020.

scholarly journals ARBITRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY IN BRAZIL: A STUDY BASED ON ‘LULA CASE’

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 223-264
Author(s):  
Carolina Barreira Lins
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
National Courts ◽  
Arbitration Clause ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
The Right

This work examines the subject of jurisdiction and arbitrability of issues related to energy and natural resources in the world, in order to enhance the arbitration institute in Brazil. The study is based on a recent case pending in Brazilian courts, named “Lula case”, which refer to a dispute between the State and concessionaires that grant the right to explore and produce oil and gas in a determined area. The presence of arbitration clauses in the concession contracts for exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazil raises questions related to the disposability of the rights concerned. It is paramount to set benchmarks on arbitral tribunals’ power to decide on these matters and to define to what extent arbitral awards may defy public policy, national sovereignty over natural resources and national courts’ jurisdiction to render decisions in this regard. Otherwise, the randomness of judicial decisions makes the arbitration clause ineffective. Moreover, the Lula case arises substantive issues related to the necessity to protect investors in the oil and gas industry, since acts arguably connect to the State policy power may cause damages to the private parties. The work critically examines the decision given by national courts so far and proposes an international approach to face situations involving the State and the necessity to protect investors in the oil and gas industry.

scholarly journals The industry structure of the Russian oil and gas complex: transformation processes and trends

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 26-30
Author(s):  
Nadezhda Zhilina
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Environmental Friendliness ◽  
Complex Transformation ◽  
Oil And Gas Resources

The oil and gas industry is becoming one of the key priorities of the state policy of the Russian Federation. Ensuring energy and economic security, sustainable development, and innovative development in the context of the digitalization of the economy requires a qualitatively new approach to regulating the oil and gas industry. The tasks of rational use of oil and gas resources, increasing productivity, and environmental friendliness of production processes are set not only for companies in the oil and gas sector, but also increase the responsibility of the state for achieving them. The solution of the above-mentioned tasks requires an integrated approach based on a theoretical and methodological basis, economic research, systematization of world experience, taking into account the use of modern management and regulation mechanisms of oil and gas complex enterprises.

scholarly journals ARBITRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY IN BRAZIL: A STUDY BASED ON ‘LULA CASE’

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 223-264
Author(s):  
Carolina Barreira Lins
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
National Courts ◽  
Arbitration Clause ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
The Right

This work examines the subject of jurisdiction and arbitrability of issues related to energy and natural resources in the world, in order to enhance the arbitration institute in Brazil. The study is based on a recent case pending in Brazilian courts, named “Lula case”, which refer to a dispute between the State and concessionaires that grant the right to explore and produce oil and gas in a determined area. The presence of arbitration clauses in the concession contracts for exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazil raises questions related to the disposability of the rights concerned. It is paramount to set benchmarks on arbitral tribunals’ power to decide on these matters and to define to what extent arbitral awards may defy public policy, national sovereignty over natural resources and national courts’ jurisdiction to render decisions in this regard. Otherwise, the randomness of judicial decisions makes the arbitration clause ineffective. Moreover, the Lula case arises substantive issues related to the necessity to protect investors in the oil and gas industry, since acts arguably connect to the State policy power may cause damages to the private parties. The work critically examines the decision given by national courts so far and proposes an international approach to face situations involving the State and the necessity to protect investors in the oil and gas industry.

scholarly journals Classification of oil and gas-bearing territories of Russia and the structure of the oil and gas industry of the regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 422-427
Author(s):  
Danil Petrovitch Egorov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Gas Bearing

The article is devoted to the qualitative assessment of the state of the oil and gas industry in the Russian Federation based on the context of administrative-territorial units. It was realized that the data provided by different sources differs due to the variation in the calculation methods used, and the lack of detailed regional reports from foreign agencies shows the novelty of the research. In the current research the projection of administrative borders on the territory of oil and gas-geological zoning is used. To determine the degree of the dependence of regional economies from the oil and gas industry, current data about the state of the mineral resource base in the subjects of the Russian Federation were compared with the geography of the location of processing enterprises. On the basis of the obtained materials, the classification of oil and gas-bearing territories is carried out.

scholarly journals Making Texas Green

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (03) ◽  
pp. 38-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efstathios E. Michaelides
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Energy Storage System ◽  
The State ◽  
Solar Panels ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Green State

Texas is proud of its oil and gas industry, but the state is blessed with abundant solar and wind power potential. Tapping that potential requires more than simply building out more wind turbines and solar panels–Texas will need a large, but achievable energy storage system. This study analyzes if Texas coulld become a green state in the future.

OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA

1999 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
M. Meaton
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
The State ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Petroleum Companies

The oil and gas production sector in Western Australia has grown dramatically in recent years and now represents the largest resource sector in the State economy. The industry has a very promising future but it faces a number of challenges if it is to achieve its full potential. Its production location in remote parts of the State confers both advantages and disadvantages. Chief among the disadvantages is the challenge of convincing the community and government of the benefits from the industry when many of those benefits are not apparent to the majority of the population. The emphasis in this paper is on economic impacts, social benefits and community attitudes.WA has produced about 820 million barrels of oil and 2000 million barrels of natural gas when gas is calculated in energy equivalent terms. Petroleum energy production has increased dramatically over the last 15 years and the State is now a substantial energy exporter. Petroleum sources provide the energy for over 85% of the final energy used in the State. Total industry investment over the last 18 years has been nearly $21,000 million for an average of $3.2 million each day. Direct employment by petroleum companies is around 2,500 people with flow-on employment in the services sector estimated at over 17,000 people. Petroleum companies have been major contributors to government revenue and to the development of remote regions in WA.

TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE OIL AND GAS MARKET AND THE MAIN MEASURES OF STATE SUPPORT AIMED AT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ARCTIC OIL AND GAS PROJECTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 31-38
Author(s):  
Igor V. Selin ◽  
◽  
Mikhail V. Ulchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
State Support ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Exploration Drilling ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
High Level

This article is devoted to the study of the main trends in the development of the oil and gas market, as well as the transfer of state support aimed at the implementation of Arctic oil and gas projects. The analysis showed that 2020 turned out to be extremely difficult for the oil and gas industry as a whole. The volumes of oil and natural gas production and consumption decreased, and due to a reduction in revenue, large domestic companies began to save on exploration drilling. Given the high level of «depletion» of oil reserves in traditional fields, with an increase in demand, in the short term, domestic oil companies will not be able to quickly increase production volumes and take advantage of favorable market conditions.

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