Government Expenditures and the Growth-Inequality Trade-Off: The Swedish Case

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Sala ◽  
Oriol Roca-Sagalés
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression

Sweden is one of the countries with the largest public fiscal intervention and narrowest income inequality in the world. This article investigates to what extent these two features are interconnected and whether economic growth affects and is affected by this relationship. Empirical results from vector auto-regression models reveal the existence of important long-run non-Keynesian effects (i.e., lessening fiscal expansions and, conversely, expansionary fiscal contractions) and significant downward effects of government expenditures on income inequality. The existence of a negative trade-off between growth and inequality is an important stylized fact which deserves close attention by policy makers.

scholarly journals Analysis of Tourist Flow from the US to Taiwan

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (s2) ◽  
pp. 369-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yen-Hsun Chen ◽  
Hsin-Hong Kang
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Tourist Flow

It is important for Taiwanese policy makers to understand how economic factors affect US tourists’ decision to travel to Taiwan. For the long-run analysis, Johansen’s cointegration test reveals that three cointegration vectors exist among the model variables, indicating a long-run relationship. To conduct a short-run analysis, this paper employs vector auto regression (VAR) to estimate the responses of US tourists in Taiwan to the shocks of changes to personal disposable income, cost of living, and substitute price. The short-run equilibrium adjustment processes are discussed in terms of generalized impulse response. The results show an immediate and significant response of changes in tourist arrivals to their own impacts, changes in the cost of living, and changes in the substitute price. In addition, the price, income, and cross-elasticity of tourism demand are all positive at the beginning of the responses, implying that the tourism products can be attributed to normal and substitute goods.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Public Policy on Economic Activity: The Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-241
Author(s):  
Saima Shafique ◽  
M. Mansoor Ali ◽  
Anwar-ul Mujahid Shah ◽  
Seema Zubair
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tax Shocks ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector

The unanticipated domestic and international changes in conjunction with policy discretion become reason for shocks to overall economy that affect overall economic growth. Based on methodology by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) the study used timing of fiscal decisions in a Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) to map dynamics of shocks due to tax revenue, government expenditures and aggregate output in Pakistan. When tax decisions precede expenditure decision, the tax shocks have a volatile short run impact causing expenditures to sharply adjust. Expenditure shocks persistently increase tax revenues and government expenditures. But in the second specification, expenditure shocks reduce the tax revenue and aggregate output that reverts to equilibrium only in the long run. The response of output shocks is almost identical for both the scenarios. Therefore, growth in output increases taxes collection in Pakistan enabling better management of burden of debt and deficit.

scholarly journals Bitcoin Network Mechanics: Forecasting the BTC Closing Price Using Vector Auto-Regression Models Based on Endogenous and Exogenous Feature Variables

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Ibrahim ◽  
Rasha Kashef ◽  
Menglu Li ◽  
Esteban Valencia ◽  
Eric Huang
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Bayesian Regression ◽  
Major Question ◽  
Factors Of Influence ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Price Discovery Process

The Bitcoin (BTC) market presents itself as a new unique medium currency, and it is often hailed as the “currency of the future”. Simulating the BTC market in the price discovery process presents a unique set of market mechanics. The supply of BTC is determined by the number of miners and available BTC and by scripting algorithms for blockchain hashing, while both speculators and investors determine demand. One major question then is to understand how BTC is valued and how different factors influence it. In this paper, the BTC market mechanics are broken down using vector autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) prediction models. The models proved to be very useful in simulating past BTC prices using a feature set of exogenous variables. The VAR model allows the analysis of individual factors of influence. This analysis contributes to an in-depth understanding of what drives BTC, and it can be useful to numerous stakeholders. This paper’s primary motivation is to capitalize on market movement and identify the significant price drivers, including stakeholders impacted, effects of time, as well as supply, demand, and other characteristics. The two VAR and BVAR models are compared with some state-of-the-art forecasting models over two time periods. Experimental results show that the vector-autoregression-based models achieved better performance compared to the traditional autoregression models and the Bayesian regression models.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Government Expenditures on Education and Economic Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Ilkin Mammadov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Educational Investment ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the impact of government’s education expenditures, gross capital formation and total population on economic growth in Azerbaijan during 1995-2018 using the different cointegration methods, namely, ARDLBT, DOLS, and CCR. The results from cointegration methods approve presence of long-run relationship among the variables. The estimation results show that government’s expenditures on education, gross capital formation and total population have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the long-run. The paper concludes that a concerted effort should be made by policy makers to increase educational investment in order to escelate economic growth.

scholarly journals China integrates Asia with the world: an empirical study

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumyananda Dinda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Promotion Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The aim of this paper was to focus on China’s economic integration with Asia region and the world. It also attempts to find the long-run relation with short-run dynamics of China’s trade in Asia and the world. Design/methodology/approach – The augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron methods are applied to test the time-series properties of the variables. Co-integration technique is used to detect the economic integration of China’s export to the USA and its import from Asian nations using monthly aggregate data from December 2005 to July 2010. Findings – This study observed that empirically China’s export to the USA depends on exchange rate and China’s import from Asia depends on China’s export to the USA. China has double role in international trade – China acts as an attractor of all inputs from Asia, and China exports the final products in international market. This study also reveals that the speed of China’s import from Asia is faster than that of China’s export to the USA. Research limitations/implications – This study has some limitation in terms of data availability, and choice of methodology like the Gravity model Practical implications – The results imply that China’s trade should be treated as an engine of growth in the Asian developing countries and the trade promotion policies should be encouraged. The emerging China will create other opportunities through trade integration with Asia and the world. Social implications – These empirical findings will help policy-makers formulate their policy and design the mechanism for application as per their targets. Originality/value – China is economically integrated with the region and the world. The paper contributes to measure the speed of China’s export and import in short run within Asia and the world. These empirical findings will help policy-makers to formulate their policy and design the mechanism for application as per their targets.

scholarly journals Research on Performance and Valuation of Enterprises Placarded by Others Based on the Improved Panel Vector Auto-Regression Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Na Luo
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Good Signal ◽  
Auto Regression

In recent years, enterprises, which were placarded, have become a heated issue in the secondary market in China. However, there still lack researches about the performance and valuation of those enterprises which were placarded. Therefore, it seems that it is lack of persuasion to use the word “barbarians” to define the enterprises which carry out placard. For the reasons above, this paper makes the use of the improved PVAR model to give an empirical analysis on the performance and valuation of the enterprises placarded, based on the samples between 2011 and 2015. First, this paper divides the whole samples into two subsample groups by the dummy variable, according to the certain point of time whether the enterprise has been placarded. After that, it build two PVAR models combining the performance indicators and the valuation indicators. The results show that the sensitivity of the target enterprise’s performance is not as good as its valuation. Second, the two subsample groups are analyzed by the impulse response function. It explains that placard creates an incentive effect for the target enterprise in the short term. Third, by using the variance decomposition, this paper achieves a conclusion that placard reduces the dependence of the target enterprise on the aspects of its valuation, profitability, size and risk. Therefore, placard is a good signal for those target enterprises on the whole, which brings a nice momentum for the enterprises on the valuation, profitability, size and risk in the short term. In the long run, the enterprises will adjust to a stable state based on the short-term changes. From this point of view, “barbarians at the gate” bring the motivation rather than chaos.

scholarly journals Investigating the Effects of Different Levels of Formal Education on Iran’s Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 205
Author(s):  
Abdollah Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Different Levels

Human capital accumulation affects economic growth and education is one of the main elements of human capital. Different levels of formal education can leave different effects on economic growth. I used data from the time period of 1981-2013 and vector auto regression method to study the effects of different levels of formal education on Iran’s economic growth. The results showed that increasing schooling at elementary, secondary and higher education levels have a significant effect on growth and in the long run, employees with university degrees, those with secondary and primary school qualifications had the greatest impact on GDP growth, respectively.

scholarly journals Trade in Services-Economic Growth Nexus: An Analysis of the Growth Impact of Trade in Services in SADC Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 58-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Maune
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Trade In Services ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Service Strategy ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Marginal Effects ◽  
The World ◽  
Literature Service

The article analysed the trade in services led growth in ten selected countries in the Southern African Development Community region using econometric regression models. Panel data obtained from the World Bank and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development databases for the period 1992 to 2015 was analysed. Five variables were used in the econometric analysis. The marginal effects of service and goods exports were positive while those of goods and service imports were negative and highly significant as was expected from literature. Service exports registered an impact that was almost threefold that of service imports and greater than goods exports. Policy-makers are encouraged to, clearly define their trade in service strategy and reduce or remove trade restrictions. The study is of importance to researchers, the private sector and government policymakers.

scholarly journals Investigating the relationship between CO2 emission and industrial production of bangladesh through the unrestricted vector auto regression methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-34
Author(s):  
Ashique Mahmud ◽  
Ataul Gani Osmani
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Auto Regression

Industrial production units discharge large amounts of CO2 as manufacturing facilities directly use fossil fuels and more electricity than any other sector. Although the per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in the developing countries, this study is aimed at analyzing the long-run association between CO2 emissions and industrial production in Bangladesh using an Unrestricted Vector Auto Regression approach. For this purpose, the study uses secondary data for the periods of 1960 to 2016 from world development indicators. The variables of interest are co2 emission and industrial production. In general CO2 data are measured in metric tons per capita and the industrial production index is used as the proxy of industrial production. Other econometric techniques, such as unit root test-ADF, Johanson Co-integration test, and OLS techniques are also applied. Firstly, a descriptive analysis finds that there has been a rapid fall in industrial output and co2 emission in 1971 which can be denoted as an adverse effect of the Independence war of Bangladesh. Despite that, industrial production and co2 emission are intended to increase at a positive slope till 2016. But the increasing rate of industrial production is significantly higher than the increasing rate of co2 emission in Bangladesh. Secondly, the Johanson Co-integration test results reveal that there is no long-run relationship between industrial production and CO2 emission in Bangladesh. But the results from Unrestricted VAR and Ordinary Least Square estimation confirm that CO2 emission one period lag has a negative and significant impact on the industrial production of Bangladesh, where the value of the coefficient is -16.01059. This means that if in the last year, co2 emission increased by 1 metric ton per capita, industrial production will be decreased by 16% in the current period. The study concludes that Bangladesh is running conscious industrial production considering energy conservation policies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document