scholarly journals Analysis of Tourist Flow from the US to Taiwan

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (s2) ◽  
pp. 369-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yen-Hsun Chen ◽  
Hsin-Hong Kang
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Tourist Flow

It is important for Taiwanese policy makers to understand how economic factors affect US tourists’ decision to travel to Taiwan. For the long-run analysis, Johansen’s cointegration test reveals that three cointegration vectors exist among the model variables, indicating a long-run relationship. To conduct a short-run analysis, this paper employs vector auto regression (VAR) to estimate the responses of US tourists in Taiwan to the shocks of changes to personal disposable income, cost of living, and substitute price. The short-run equilibrium adjustment processes are discussed in terms of generalized impulse response. The results show an immediate and significant response of changes in tourist arrivals to their own impacts, changes in the cost of living, and changes in the substitute price. In addition, the price, income, and cross-elasticity of tourism demand are all positive at the beginning of the responses, implying that the tourism products can be attributed to normal and substitute goods.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Public Policy on Economic Activity: The Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-241
Author(s):  
Saima Shafique ◽  
M. Mansoor Ali ◽  
Anwar-ul Mujahid Shah ◽  
Seema Zubair
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tax Shocks ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector

The unanticipated domestic and international changes in conjunction with policy discretion become reason for shocks to overall economy that affect overall economic growth. Based on methodology by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) the study used timing of fiscal decisions in a Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) to map dynamics of shocks due to tax revenue, government expenditures and aggregate output in Pakistan. When tax decisions precede expenditure decision, the tax shocks have a volatile short run impact causing expenditures to sharply adjust. Expenditure shocks persistently increase tax revenues and government expenditures. But in the second specification, expenditure shocks reduce the tax revenue and aggregate output that reverts to equilibrium only in the long run. The response of output shocks is almost identical for both the scenarios. Therefore, growth in output increases taxes collection in Pakistan enabling better management of burden of debt and deficit.

Government Expenditures and the Growth-Inequality Trade-Off: The Swedish Case

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Sala ◽  
Oriol Roca-Sagalés
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression

Sweden is one of the countries with the largest public fiscal intervention and narrowest income inequality in the world. This article investigates to what extent these two features are interconnected and whether economic growth affects and is affected by this relationship. Empirical results from vector auto-regression models reveal the existence of important long-run non-Keynesian effects (i.e., lessening fiscal expansions and, conversely, expansionary fiscal contractions) and significant downward effects of government expenditures on income inequality. The existence of a negative trade-off between growth and inequality is an important stylized fact which deserves close attention by policy makers.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Application of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty at modelling of costs

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 201-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Beranová ◽  
D. Martinovičová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Accounting ◽  
Cost Functions ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Theorem ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost

The costs functions are mentioned mostly in the relation to the Break-even Analysis where they are presented in the linear form. But there exist several different types and forms of cost functions. Fist of all, it is necessary to distinguish between the short-run and long-run cost function that are both very important tools of the managerial decision making even if each one is used on a different level of management. Also several methods of estimation of the cost function's parameters are elaborated in the literature. But all these methods are based on the past data taken from the financial accounting while the financial accounting is not able to separate the fixed and variable costs and it is also strongly adjusted to taxation in the many companies. As a tool of the managerial decision making support, the cost functions should provide a vision to the future where many factors of risk and uncertainty influence economic results. Consequently, these random factors should be considered in the construction of cost functions, especially in the long-run. In order to quantify the influences of these risks and uncertainties, the authors submit the application of the Bayesian Theorem.

scholarly journals Getting Prices Right: What Should Be Done?

1998 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angus Deaton
Keyword(s):  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Identification Problems ◽  
Single Index ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Heterogeneous Consumers

Much of the profession accepts that the CPI likely overstates the rate of increase of the cost-of-living. It is less clear that there are sound and feasible steps that the BLS can adopt to improve matters in the short run. There are unresolved conceptual and identification problems in the measurement of quality. Superlative price indexes are not feasible, and feasible approximations are not superlative, and may not even be better. The need for a single index that aggregates over heterogeneous consumers with different incomes, tastes, and needs casts serious doubt on the cost-of-living approach.

scholarly journals ESTIMATING PROFIT , COST FUNCTION AND TECHNICAL EFFICIENCIES OF RICE PRODUCTION IN NEJAF FOR SEASON 2016*

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Al-Mashhdani & Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Cost Function ◽  
Output Level ◽  
Average Output ◽  
Optimal Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Profit Maximizing ◽  
Economic Price ◽  
The Cost

The aim of this study was to estimate the profit and cost functions as well as economic, price, cost, and technical efficiencies beside the other economic indices at actual, optimal and profit-maximizing output of rice. A random sample of 240 rice  farms in Nejaf province was used during the agricultural season 2016. From efficiency scales of profit function, it was shown that the output quantity had the greatest impact on the profit compared to other variables (average output costs and price). According to the cost function, the optimum output level and the profit- maximizing output  level for the short run were 64.84 tons and 117.4 tons respectively. The lowest price that the farmer can accept was 194.83 thousand dinars / ton. At this price, the producer loss all fixed costs in the short run, hoping that the price of rice will improve in the long run. Net profit was estimated on the basis of actual output, cost minimizing output (optimal) and profit-maximizing output, which amounted to 8084.32, 30852.65 and 45547.5 thousand dinars, respectively. The of technical efficiency were 34%. and the cost efficiency was 0.52. We conclude from the study that economic resources have not been exploited optimally, indicating that actual output is far from optimal output. The study recommends a output policy aimed at increasing economic efficiency and optimizing the use of available resources.

How to Hedge Against Inflation Risk in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar

Abstract Vietnam has experienced galloping inflation and faced serious dollarization since its reform. To effectively control its inflation for promoting price stability, it is necessary to find efficacious leading indicators and the hedging mechanism. Using monthly data over the period from January 1997 to June 2020, this study finds the predictive power and hedge effectiveness of both gold and the US dollar on inflation in the long-run and short-run within the asymmetric framework. Especially, the response of inflation to the shocks of gold price and the US dollar are quick and decisive, disclosing the sensitiveness of inflation to these two variables.

The Association Between Bank Credit Terms and Conditions and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-256
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We explored the trajectory of bank loan terms and conditions over the business cycle, where the latter was decomposed into its long-run (trend) and short-run (cyclical) components. We found that deterioration of each business cycle component leads to a significant tightening of credit terms and conditions. We found mixed results concerning the symmetry of impacts of the short and long run components. Symmetry was found between the terms and conditions on loans for small vs. large enterprises. Our findings provide very useful information to policy makers and should be taken into consideration when monetary policies are designed.

scholarly journals ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PENDAPATAN WISATAWAN DAN HARGA PARIWISATA TERHADAP PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA DENGAN VECM

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
MERARY SIANIPAR ◽  
NI LUH PUTU SUCIPTAWATI ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Tourism demand is focused on estimating variables which influence tourist visit. The tourism demand that we discuss on this research is the tourism demand to Bali of the major tourism-generating country was Australia. The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between tourist income and tourism price to tourism demand using VECM. VECM requires that the variables in the model must be stationary and fulfilled a cointegration condition. In order to make it valid, the stationarity of variables in the model have to be checked using ADF unit root test. In additon, cointegration between these variables are examined using Johansen’s cointegration test. The results of ADF unit root test show that indicated the tourist income, the tourism price and the tourism demand for Australia data are stationary in first lag or I(1). Cointegration test shows that all variables are cointegrated, i.e. have a long-run relationship. In the long-run, the tourist income and tourism price give positive effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the increase in tourism demand. In addition, in the short-run, the tourist income and the tourism price give negative effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the decrease in tourism demand.

The force of globalization reshaping the local institutions: evidence from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation member countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahla Samargandi ◽  
Kazi Sohag ◽  
Ali Kutan ◽  
Maha Alandejani
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Institutional Setting ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Relation ◽  
Political Globalization

PurposeThe authors reinforce the existing literature on the effect of overall globalization on institutional quality (IQ), while incorporating the effects of economic, political and social aspects of globalization, human capital, government expenditure and population growth. To this end, the authors estimate panel data models for a sample of 36 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during 1984–2016.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) approach.FindingsThe study’s investigation affirms the presence of an inverted U-shaped (nonlinear) relation between overall globalization and IQ indexes for the sample countries, which suggests no additional room for improvement in IQ. It also underpins the existence of an inverted-U-shaped (nonlinear) relation between political globalization and IQ. In contrast, economic and social globalizations have a U-shaped relation with IQ, implying more scope for improvement.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings have key policy implications. First, policy makers should consider a long-run approach for improving IQ and globalization over time. Second, quick reforms in the short run may not improve IQ.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that policy makers should approach the globalization process from a long-run perspective as well by designing appropriate strategies to provide a continuous but gradual increase in globalization so as to systematically monitor the threshold limits to IQ from improving globalizationOriginality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work is the first to empirically investigate the overall role of globalization in promoting IQ under the conditions of short-run heterogeneity and long-run homogeneity. The authors focus on the member countries of the OIC, many of which are ruled by authoritarian regimes and suffer from a poor domestic institutional setting.

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