The Rupture of the Hub -Spoke Effect of Bilateral Trade Flows when Rules of Origin are Relaxed: The Case of Agadir Agreement Countries.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Esmat Mostafa Kamel
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
Comparable Control ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Double Differences ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

This paper aims at shedding light on the extent to which the Agadir Association agreement has fostered inter regional trade between the EU_26 and the Agadir_4. It analyzes the remarkable variation in the spatial/sectoral structure of exports, and the extent to which it has been induced by the Agadir agreement itself or due to the adoption of RoO  PANEURO diagonal cumulative scheme. The dataset covers a timeframe from [2000 - 2014] designed to account for sector specific final and intermediate exports through a bilateral gravity model and through tbe Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator PPML. The methodological approach is considered to be a two-fold one which starts by screening final export and intermediate flows through conducting a ‘Hierarchal Cluster Analysis’. Second step proceeds by exposing the export flows of the 3 clusters to treatment with diagonal RoO through ‘The Double Differences Approach’ DID benchmarked to equally comparable control groups. Across all scenarios applied a remarkable significance of the interaction term combining both treatment effects and time, for the coefficients of 11 out of the 13 sectors were detected and it further asserted that treatment with diagonal RoO contributed to increasing intra-Agadir’s_4 final and intermediate exports  and exports to E.U._26.

Softwood lumber trade and trade restrictions: gravity model.

2021 ◽  
pp. 142-173
Author(s):  
Xin-tong Li ◽  
Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Trade Model

Abstract A gravity trade model can be used to determine the effects of policy on bilateral trade flows. The gravity model is initially explained and then used to determine the effect that U.S. tariffs have on softwood lumber (SWL) imports from Canada, using information from the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement. Quarterly data for seven Canadian and three U.S. regions for the period 2007-2017 are used to estimate a gravity model of SWL trade. The model is subsequently expanded to include Japan and China as separate regions, and then as a combined China-Japan region. The model is estimated using OLS and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method for trade quantity and value. Findings indicate that: (1) the imposition of a countervailing and/or anti-dumping duty usually has a negative effect on Canada's physical exports, but not in all cases; (2) the value of softwood lumber trade decreases by 26% on average under a tax/tariff compared with no duties; (3) the tax/tariff has a smaller but still significant impact on Canadian exports when China and Japan are included, as SWL exports are diverted from the U.S.; and, not surprisingly, (4) duties affect the value of lumber exports to a much greater extent than quantity.

scholarly journals The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Egger ◽  
Mario Larch ◽  
Kevin E Staub ◽  
Rainer Winkelmann
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Preferential Trade ◽  
Indicator Variables ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

Structural new trade theory models have never been used to evaluate and quantify the role of preferential trade agreement (PTA) membership for trade in a way which is consistent with general equilibrium. Apart from filling this gap, the present paper aims at delivering an empirical model which takes into account both that PTA membership is endogenous and that the world matrix of bilateral trade flows contains numerous zero entries. These features are treated in an encompassing way by means of (possibly two-part) Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables in the empirical model. (JEL F11, F13, F15)

scholarly journals Determinants of Trade Between Taiwan and ASEAN Countries: A PPML Estimator Approach

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402091951
Author(s):  
Nhan Thanh Thi Hoang ◽  
Hoan Quang Truong ◽  
Chung Van Dong
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Capital Income ◽  
Dynamic Approach ◽  
Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
High Skill

Taiwan and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) do not have any diplomatic ties, but they have enjoyed significantly economic benefits, especially bilateral investment and trade cooperation. Over the period 2000–2017, trade between Taiwan and ASEAN had significantly focused on manufactured goods embodied with high-skill and technology-intensive content. Using gravity model with a PPML (Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood) estimator, this article explores determinants of bilateral trade flows between them at both aggregate and sectoral levels. We found that economic scale and per capital income of ASEAN have much stronger effects than those of Taiwan at both aggregate trade and the degree of manufacturing. Results also show that bilateral trade between Taiwan and ASEAN has been efficiently performed over recent decades, except for cases of Myanmar and Cambodia. Hence, a dynamic approach should be taken by both sides to promote bilateral trade relations in future.

Softwood lumber trade and trade restrictions: gravity model.

2021 ◽  
pp. 142-173
Author(s):  
Xin-tong Li ◽  
Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Trade Model

Abstract A gravity trade model can be used to determine the effects of policy on bilateral trade flows. The gravity model is initially explained and then used to determine the effect that U.S. tariffs have on softwood lumber (SWL) imports from Canada, using information from the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement. Quarterly data for seven Canadian and three U.S. regions for the period 2007-2017 are used to estimate a gravity model of SWL trade. The model is subsequently expanded to include Japan and China as separate regions, and then as a combined China-Japan region. The model is estimated using OLS and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method for trade quantity and value. Findings indicate that: (1) the imposition of a countervailing and/or anti-dumping duty usually has a negative effect on Canada's physical exports, but not in all cases; (2) the value of softwood lumber trade decreases by 26% on average under a tax/tariff compared with no duties; (3) the tax/tariff has a smaller but still significant impact on Canadian exports when China and Japan are included, as SWL exports are diverted from the U.S.; and, not surprisingly, (4) duties affect the value of lumber exports to a much greater extent than quantity.

Export-enhancing Effects of Free Trade Agreements in South Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farhat Mahmood ◽  
Juthathip Jongwanich
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Extended Gravity ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Tariff Rates ◽  
The One

This article examines the effects of in-effect free trade agreements (FTA) on exports of Pakistan using the extended gravity model of bilateral trade flows. The effects of FTAs are measured by finding the differences between most-favoured nation (MFN) and preferential tariff rates (the tariff gap) as well as the zero-one binary dummy variable. Our systematic comparison of both the measures of an FTA suggests that the estimation based on the tariff gap is consistent with the observed changes in the trade pattern of Pakistan. Pakistan–China FTA (PCFTA) has the largest stimulating effect for Pakistan’s exports, while the effects of other FTAs are much smaller and not much different from each other. The effects of FTAs on agricultural products tend to be higher than those of manufacturing ones, suggesting ability of firms in the former to better comply with imposed rules of origin (ROO) than the latter. At the one-digit Standard of International Trade Classification, the effect of FTAs is mixed across products and FTAs.

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF ECONOMIC AND TRADE COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (6) ◽  
pp. 3-12
Author(s):  
Zhang DONGYANG ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Free Trade Zone ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
The Eu

The status and prospects of development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and China are considered. It is proved that bilateral cooperation in the trade and economic sphere has made significant progress. In 2012–2017, China was the second largest trading partner of Ukraine after Russia. However, the problem of imbalance in imports and exports between Ukraine and China has not yet been resolved. In addition, the scale and number of projects in which Ukraine attracts Chinese investment is much less than investments from European countries and the United States. It is justified that trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and China is at a new historical stage. On the one hand, Ukraine signed the Association Agreement with the European Union, and on January 1, 2016, the rules of the free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU entered into force. This helps to accelerate the integration of Ukrainian economy into European one. On the other hand, the global economic downturn requires the introduction of innovations in the model of cooperation. The Chinese initiative “One belt is one way” is one of the variants of the innovation model of cooperation. Its significance is to unite the Asia-Pacific region with the EU in order to join the Eurasian Economic Union, create a new space and opportunities for development and achieve prosperity with the Eurasian countries. All this forms unprecedented opportunities for development of bilateral economic and trade relations. It seems that to fully open the potential of Ukrainian economy and expand bilateral trade and economic cooperation, it is necessary to take into account such proposals as the establishment of the Sino-Ukrainian industrial park, the promotion of cooperation in the field of electronic commerce, the formation of the Sino-Ukrainian free trade zone and enhanced interaction within multilateral mechanisms (for example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the interaction of China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 16 + 1 format).

Sri Lankan Cleft Lip and Palate Study Model Analysis: Clefts of the Secondary Palate

1993 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Mccance ◽  
David Roberts-Harry ◽  
Martyn Sherriff ◽  
Michael Mars ◽  
William J.B. Houston
Keyword(s):  
Cleft Lip ◽  
Cleft Lip And Palate ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Tooth Size ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Secondary Palate ◽  
Comparable Control ◽  
And Control

The study models of a group of adult Sri Lankan patients with clefts of the secondary palate were investigated. Tooth-size and arch-dimension comparisons were made with a comparable control group. Significant differences were found between the cleft and control groups in tooth sizes, chord lengths, and arch widths. The cleft group dimensions were generally smaller than those of the control group. Overjets were larger in the cleft group.

Temporary Migration and Bilateral Trade Flows

World Economy ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 735-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Jansen ◽  
Roberta Piermartini
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Temporary Migration ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows

scholarly journals The Effect of Corruption on International Trade: A Case Study of Indonesian Trade to Nine Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danang Ibnu Atsir ◽  
Sunaryati Sunaryati
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Geographical Distance ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

Corruption is a form of abuse of ethical authority by public officials, which is divided into two parts: bribery and forced collection. The effect of corruption like bribes and illegal levies is widespread in the public sector. One interesting investigation is the effect of corruption on international trade. Corruption becomes a barrier in international trade, where corruption plays a role in the access of trade goods and services from within and abroad. Using the gravity model, the focus of this research was the effect of corruption on international trade by taking a case study of Indonesia’s bilateral trade with its nine largest export destination countries. Using panel data, analysis tools used in this research were common effect, fixed effect, random effect and poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML). In this research, it was found that geographical distance variable in its fixed units caused the omitted variable so that the error term correlated with independent variables. In order to overcome the problem, poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method was used in performing regression gravity model with linear log form, so the omitted variable issue on the geographical distance can be eliminated. The results of this research concluded that corruption played a role in international trade through bureaucratic mechanisms of trade and investment licensing and the effect of corruption was more detrimental to exporters.Keywords:   Gravity Model, Corruption, International Trade, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML).

scholarly journals FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONS OF UKRAINE AND CHINA: CHALLENGES FOR THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yevhen Ivanov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Electrical Machinery ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
The Eu

The article looks into key challenges for Ukrainian economy caused by foreign trade intensification with China in 2020 when Ukraine’s exports to PRC increased by 98 per cent. The dynamics and main structural shifts in the UA-CN trade are analyzed. The structure of bilateral trade flows between the parties by degree of processing and value added is explored. It is revealed that Ukraine’s exports to China consists predominantly from raw materials and products of primary processing: mineral products (iron ore), cereals (maize), sunflower oil and its residues, ferrous metals, etc. The imports from China to Ukraine consists mainly from electrical machinery, mechanical appliances, articles of apparel, chemical products, iron and steel, etc. Comparative analysis of the commodity structure of Ukraine’s exports to PRC and to the EU is conducted. The analysis shows that, despite dominance of traditional and low value added goods in Ukrainian overall exports, the share of sophisticated manufactured goods in exports to the EU is much larger than in exports to China. It is substantiated that trade with China largely determines the raw material orientation of Ukraine's international specialization, while exports to developed countries are characterized by a relatively higher share of intermediate and consumer goods. To increase the efficiency of Ukraine’s foreign trade, it is considered that the best option is to focus on reducing dependence on imports from China by developing domestic production of appropriate consumer goods and increasing export flows to developed countries. The expediency of Ukraine's refusal to participate in the New Silk Road project is argued in favor of using the benefits of nearshoring strategy, which opens the opportunity to replace Chinese consumer goods in the EU market with Ukrainian ones under the EU-UA association agreement. The article briefly surveys some cases of successful implementation of this strategy by Ukrainian business, in particular the launch of exports of household appliances (electro-thermic coffee and tea makers, electric razors, washing machines, electric heaters) to the EU.

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