scholarly journals Model Runtut waktu untuk Peramalan Indeks Kekeringan Daerah Lombok Utara

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Humairo Saidah ◽  
I Wayan Yasa ◽  
Muh. Bagus Budianto ◽  
Syamsul Hidayat ◽  
I.D.G Jayanegara
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Good Accuracy ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Drought Pattern ◽  
Lombok Island

PDSI is the drought index method which has good accuracy to be applied in Lombok Island. However, this method is only able to hindcast the drought without any procedure to predict the drought index in the future. So, this model aims to recognize the characteristics of drought in North Lombok for early mitigation and anticipating drought disasters purposes in this region. The results obtained from this study are that the drought pattern in North Lombok has the SARIMA model of (0,1,2) (0,1,1)12. The drought in North Lombok mainly occurs between May-October with an increasing of drought index tends for over last 20 years.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Weekly Monitoring Methods of the Palmer Drought Index

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 6033-6044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyoung Rhee ◽  
Gregory J. Carbone
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Monitoring Methods ◽  
The South ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Monitoring Method ◽  
Climate Division

Abstract A method for weekly monitoring of the Palmer Drought Index (PDI) by using four parallel month-long calculation chains in rotation (“ROLLING” method) was tested for the Kansas Northwest Climate Division and the South Carolina Southern Climate Division and compared to two other methods, a modified version of the Climate Prediction Center’s weekly Palmer Drought Index monitoring method with a modified set of coefficients (“WEEKLY” method) and the National Climatic Data Center’s (NCDC’s) projected monthly Palmer Drought Index method using long-term historical daily normal temperature and precipitation (“NORMALS” method). The results for the Kansas Northwest Climate Division and the South Carolina Southern Climate Division generally agreed. The weekly method produced drought severity values that differ most from standard monthly PDI values despite using a modified set of coefficients. The method recently adopted by NCDC successfully estimated Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) values late in the month, but often presented a misleading trend early in the month. The method used in this paper produced PMDI and Z Index values that approximate those found using the standard monthly PMDI code. It also preserves approximately the same length of memory found in that code, provides a tool for progressive drought monitoring allowing users to assess current drought conditions, produces a weekly historical archive of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and enables users to identify the onset of drought early and more clearly.

scholarly journals DAMPAK TRADISI BEGAWE MERARIK TERHADAP SOSIAL EKONOMI MASYARAKAT ISLAM SASAK DI KOTA MATARAM

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-126
Author(s):  
Saprudin Saprudin
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Local Culture ◽  
Moral Problem ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Foreign Tourism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lombok Island

Tradition and culture are unique, sometimes like iron steel which absorbs the attractiveness and charm of the world of foreign tourism, but also sometimes has a moral problem. But judging by the preservation of the purity of cultural values, the pride of traditional traditions is important to preserve. Likewise, the begawe tradition draws on what is happening in the Sasak Muslim community on Lombok Island, which must be saved from the influence of global modernization that oppresses the purity values ​​of local culture. The lack of attention and concern of the government towards the begawe merarik tradition also determines the continuation of the traditional customs and culture of the Sasak community in the future.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Future Drought Indices Due to the Effects of Climate Change in Al Najaf City, Iraq.

2022 ◽  
Vol 961 (1) ◽  
pp. 012040
Author(s):  
H H Mahdi ◽  
T A Musa ◽  
Z A A Al-Rammahi ◽  
E J Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Future

Abstract Drought is a natural disaster associated with a shortage of water availability for specified region within a specific time period. The impacts of drought are significant and extend to damage many important life aspects such as environmental, economic, and social activities. The forecasting of the drought events is an essential element for planning this disaster, reducing its effectiveness and response. The three characteristic frequency, intensity, and time period are the key parts for forecasting and assessment of droughts. Here, two drought indices (The Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), standardized precipitation index (SPI)) were used for forecasting of the future drought within Al Najaf city, Iraq. Thirty years meteorological data (average monthly precipitation and temperature) were used for the period (2021–2050) downloaded from the site of the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for five grid points to cover overall study area. The computation of these indices conducted at a 12-month time scale and included the calculation of potential evapotranspiration by Thorthwaite method. The temporal drought intensity as well as drought frequency configurations were calculated and analyzed for each drought index. The results showed that the general average drought level expected will mildly dry while the maximum drought level expected will extremely dry. The more severe seasons of drought were forecasted in the years 2038, 2034 and 2021, respectively. Also, the prevailing event will be a one year drought and the maximum drought interval occurred within the study period will four consecutive years, with a 3.33% exceedance probability.

Forecasting drought revisited – the importance of spectral transformations to dominant atmospheric predictor variables

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish Sharma ◽  
Ze Jiang ◽  
Fiona Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Water Restriction ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Entire Country ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spectral Transformations ◽  
Decadal Climate

<p>As we write this abstract, Australia is experiencing widespread forest fires, Sydney has declared significant water restriction measures curtailing demand, and the entire country is experiencing a drought that is amongst the worst on record. Formulating a stable and practical approach for predicting drought into the future is being realised as an important need, as we enter an era of warmer climates that complicate this problem to an even greater extent. This study presents a novel basis for forecasting drought into the future. Use is made of a recently developed wavelets based methodology for transforming predictor variables so as to force greater consistency in spectral attributes with the response being modelled. Using a commonly adopted drought index, we demonstrate how the wavelets transformed predictor variables can be used to model the response with greater accuracy than otherwise. These transformed predictor variables are then used in conjunction with CMIP5 decadal climate forecasts to demonstrate the accuracy attainable at longer lead times than is currently possible. While our application focusses on the Australian mainland, the method is generic and can be adopted anywhere.</p>

scholarly journals Hydrological drought index based on reservoir capacity – Case study of Batujai dam in Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Wayan Yasa ◽  
Mohammad Bisri ◽  
Moch Sholichin ◽  
Ussy Andawayanti
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Dry Land ◽  
Reservoir Volume ◽  
Hydrological Drought Index ◽  
Lombok Island

AbstractHydrological drought index analysis has been widely developed and applied for the development of water resources. The island of Lombok, which is largely a dry land, requires a significant hydrological drought index to be sourced from measurable data analysis. This research focused aims to obtain hydrological drought index in Lombok Island using the capacity change of reservoir. The analysis includes reservoir data especially in the event of El-Nino. The main parameters analysed in this work are data homogeneity, decrease line of reservoir volume, increase in the line of reservoir volume, reservoir volume deficit, and hydrological drought index (RDI). The basic equation uses the water balance in the reservoir, which is the inflow–outflow and change of reservoir. The results of the analysis show that in the event of El-Nino, the drought hydrological index indicates different levels depending upon the water level of the reservoir. The criteria for the drought level are as follows: weak RDI = from −0.46 to −0.01 at an reservoir elevation of 90.88 to 92.33 m a.s.l, moderate RDI: from −0.59 to −0.46 at water level of reservoir from 90.27 to 90.88 m a.s.l, sever RDI: from −0.80 to −0.59 at water level of reservoir from 88.83 to 90.27 m a.s.l. and very severe RDI: from −0.89 to −0.80 at water level of water reservoir 87.78–88.83 m a.s.l. The duration of drought was 9 months, i.e., from February to November.

scholarly journals PERENCANAAN SKENARIO DALAM PENGEMBANGAN BISNIS KULINER HALAL DI PULAU LOMBOK – NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dewi Rispawati ◽  
Vidya Yanti Utami
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
Collection Methods ◽  
Lombok Island

This research is describes the scenario planning for the development of halal culinary business on Lombok Island - West Nusa Tenggara Province. The purpose of this research is to create a scenario planning model in dealing with existing problems. This is descriptive research with data collection methods using case studies. Data collection is using observation, interview and documentation and data analysis is using scenario planning analysis. The focus of this research is about the stages in scenario planning using the TAIDA method consisting of Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding and Acting. The results of the research showed that Lombok Island - West Nusa Tenggara was still not maximal, in developing  halal culinary business, because there are several obstacles faced by the culinary businessmen and the government, so that good planning is needed to analyze and provide a scenario for the future conditions of the halal culinary business. This research is expected to provide an overview of the development of halal culinary business in Lombok Island in the future and minimize the consequences and possible impacts of developing a halal culinary business and to sharpen a strategy.Keywords : Scenario Planning, Business Development, and Halal Culinary.

scholarly journals Analysis Prediction of Prambanan Temple Visitors with Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 359-363
Author(s):  
Rohmah Artika ◽  
Adi Setiawan ◽  
Glagah Eskacakra Setyowisnu ◽  
Siti Uminasiah ◽  
Prihantini
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Tourist Attractions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Analysis Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Data

The number of visitors in tourist attractions are almost always changes each time, even for tourist attractions that are already well-known among local and foreign people, usually will tend to increase at certain times, as in the Prambanan Temple. Based on data from TWC (Taman Wisata Candi) unit office, the number of visitors of Prambanan Temple during holidays at the end of 2018 increased by 8% from the previous year. Because of its increase, the manager of tourist attractions must always try to provide the best service. Therefore, the manager of Prambanan Temple needs to know the prediction of the number of visitors in the future so that they can prepare services and innovations to increase its attractiveness. The data of Prambanan Temple visitors number is seasonal, so the visitors number prediction at Prambanan Temple will be determined using the method for seasonal data. This research tries to compare the two methods, namely Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model. The results of these methods are the visitors number prediction with different errors, so it can be seen which method is better between the two.

Drought remote sensing monitoring based on the Modified Perpendicular Drought Index method

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongwei Zhang ◽  
Huailiang Chen ◽  
Shuanghe Shen ◽  
Chunhui Zou
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Remote Sensing Monitoring

scholarly journals Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Yang ◽  
Jiaxi Tian ◽  
Yuanhai Fu ◽  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Xu He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simulated Data ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wet Climate ◽  
Eastern Inner Mongolia ◽  
Climate Transition ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Emissions Scenario

Abstract Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humid over the next few decades. In this paper, eight CMIP6 models were employed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes under five principal Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (from 2015 to 2099) to project the future warming and humidification in Northwest China using the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) method. The results revealed that (1) the simulated temperature and precipitation of eight CMIP6 models were consistent with that of observed data during 1961–2014, which showed an increase of approximately 28.2 mm, while simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 9.4 mm. The annual precipitation gradually decreased from Eastern Inner Mongolia and the Southern Northwest Mongolia region (>700 mm) to the Central Northwest Mongolia region (<100 mm) from 1961 to 2014; (2) the MME significantly overestimated the temperature and slightly underestimated the precipitation in Northwest Mongolia. The temperature difference between the simulated and observed data was approximately 0.4 °C. The observed data showed an increase of approximately 0.9 °C from 1961 to 2014, whereas the simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 0.7 °C; (3) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the percentage of precipitation anomalies at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C were 166.64, 190.58, 226.44, and 274.56%, respectively; thus, alleviating the drought situation while facilitating the warm-dry to warm-wet climate transition; (4) the water balance between rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulting from increased precipitation suggested that not all sites will be wet in the future. There was still a drying trend in some areas, where drought was more severe under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario.

scholarly journals Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimia Naderi ◽  
mahnoosh moghaddasi ◽  
Ashkan Shokri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Joint Return ◽  
Joint Return Period ◽  
Drought Occurrence ◽  
Standardized Drought Index

Abstract This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the probability of drought occurrence in central Iran. To this end, a new drought index called Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was developed, which is composed of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). The required data included precipitation, temperature (from CRU TS), and soil moisture (from the ESA CCA SM product) on a monthly time scale for the 1980–2016 period. Moreover, future climate data were downloaded from CMIP6 models under the latest SSPs-RCPs emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the 2020–2056 period. Based on the NRMSE, Sn, and NS evaluation criteria, the Galambos and Clayton functions were selected to derive copula-based joint distribution functions in both periods. The results showed that more severe droughts and longer will occur in the future compared to the historical period and in particular under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the derived joint return period, a drought event with defined severity or duration will happen in a shorter return period as compared with the historical period. In other words, joint return period indicated a higher probability of drought occurrence in the future period. Moreover, the joint return period analysis revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same, while it decresed over extreme droughts in the future.

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