scholarly journals The demographic dividend is more than an education dividend

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (42) ◽  
pp. 25982-25984
Author(s):  
Rainer Kotschy ◽  
Patricio Suarez Urtaza ◽  
Uwe Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Positive Growth ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Effect Of Age

The demographic dividend has long been viewed as an important factor for economic development and provided a rationale for policies aiming at a more balanced age structure through birth control and family planning. Assessing the relative importance of age structure and increases in human capital, recent work has argued that the demographic dividend is related to education and has suggested a dominance of improving education over age structure. Here we reconsider the empirical relevance of shifts in the age distribution for development for a panel of 159 countries over the period 1950 to 2015. Based on a flexible model of age-structured human capital endowments, the results document important interactions between age structure and human capital endowments, suggesting that arguments of clear dominance of education over age structure are unwarranted and lead to potentially misleading policy conclusions. An increase in the working-age population share has a strong and significant positive effect on growth, even conditional on human capital, in line with the conventional notion of a demographic dividend. An increase in human capital only has positive growth effects if combined with a suitable age structure. An increasing share of the most productive age groups has an additional positive effect on economic performance. Finally, the results show considerable heterogeneity in the effect of age structure and human capital for different levels of development. Successful policies for sustainable development should take this heterogeneity into account to avoid detrimental implications of a unidimensional focus on human capital without accounting for demography.

scholarly journals Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (26) ◽  
pp. 12798-12803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Endale Kebede ◽  
Alexia Prskawetz ◽  
Warren C. Sanderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Dependency Ratios ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Negative Impacts

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980–2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

The age distribution in the Taimyr population wild northern deer (Rangifer Tarandus) in the first decades of 21 centuries

2021 ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
A. Shapkin ◽  
R. Ivanova ◽  
N. Arsentseva ◽  
N. Sukhanova
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Base Material ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Field Samples ◽  
Wild Deer

Objective: mathematical demography means to identify and evaluate the age distribution of male and female of Taimyr tundra reindeer in the first decade of the XXI century and future trends in demographic situation Taimyr population.Materials and methods. The base material for evaluating the current state of the population age structure Taimyr steel fishing representative sample of male and female wild deer (n = 10845 individuals) collected in the West, Central and Taimyr Putorana in 2001-2008., And the deer samples (n = 1569 individuals), the floor of which is unknown. Determination of individual animals from age and older (n = 9773 individuals) performed on histological sections of cutters according to the corresponding procedure. To repay the random deviations of sample data because of a lack of presence of immature animals (calves, yearlings, young 1-2 years) (selectivity of fishing is directed primarily at the production of individuals older than 3 years, why animals in different age groups in the samples is greater than there are in the population) applies a smoothing procedure. Then, positive deviation of the number of individuals in the same age group were leveled due to negative deviations in adjacent groups.Results. By smoothed age ranges of the field samples from 2001-2008 the current age distribution of Taimyr wild reindeer calculated and analyzed. The study showed that the theoretical current age distribution of males with realized breeding is 77.03, females - 80.56, in the combined groups of animals - 82.35%. The real population has 18-19 age generations of males and females. The reproductive core of males from 3 to 10 years old is 48.43%, individuals of age limit 11 years and older occupy 1.96% of this sex and age structure, calves and young animals for 1-2 years - 24.64%. For the reproductive part of females aged 3–15 years, the overall age distribution is 55.34%, and the proportion of juveniles and young animals, according to calculations, is determined in this part of the population at 25.16%. In the combined current age distribution, males, females: calves and young animals accounted for 27.72%, the sexually mature part with animals of older and age-specific ages - 54.63%.Conclusion. Demographic Taimir population modeling operation in the first decade of the XXI century long materials commercial samples collected at commercial points shown at current age distribution of the realized and reproduction conditions for existing commercial load males - 77.03 for females - 80.56 and for unified groups (males, females) - 82.4%. Meanwhile, the steady state and stable age distribution Taimyr tundra wild deer can reach a middle-level only when the fecundity of female reproductive generations with clean reproduction rate (R0) equal in population groupings 1.0

scholarly journals Assessing Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies and Post-Vaccination Reopening Policies for COVID-19 Control Using SEIR Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Wang ◽  
Hulin Wu ◽  
Sanyi Tang
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Effect Of Age

AbstractBackgroundAs the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, it is badly needed to develop vaccination guidelines to prioritize the vaccination delivery in order to effectively stop COVID-19 epidemic and minimize the loss.MethodsWe evaluated the effect of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of infections and deaths using an SEIR model, considering the age structure and social contact patterns for different age groups for each of different countries.ResultsIn general, the vaccination priority should be given to those younger people who are active in social contacts to minimize the number of infections; while the vaccination priority should be given to the elderly to minimize the number of deaths. But this principle may not always apply when the interaction of age structure and age-specific social contact patterns is complicated. Partially reopening schools, workplaces or households, the vaccination priority may need to be adjusted accordingly.ConclusionsPrematurely reopening social contacts could initiate a new outbreak or even a new pandemic out of control if the vaccination rate and the detection rate are not high enough. Our result suggests that it requires at least nine months of vaccination before fully reopening social contacts in order to avoid a new pandemic.

scholarly journals Effects of latency and age structure on the dynamics and containment of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.B. Blyuss ◽  
Y.N. Kyrychko
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Major Effect ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Mean Field Model ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractIn this paper we develop an SEIR-type model of COVID-19, with account for two particular aspects: non-exponential distribution of incubation and recovery periods, as well as age structure of the population. For the mean-field model, which does not distinguish between different age groups, we demonstrate that including a more realistic Gamma distribution of incubation and recovery periods may not have an effect on the total number of deaths and the overall size of an epidemic, but it has a major effect in terms of increasing the peak numbers of infected and critical care cases, as well as on changing the timescales of an epidemic, both in terms of time to reach the peak, and the overall duration of an outbreak. In order to obtain more accurate estimates of disease progression and investigate different strategies for introducing and lifting the lockdown, we have also considered an age-structured version of the model, which has allowed us to include more accurate data on age-specific rates of hospitalisation and COVID-19 related mortality. Applying this model to three comparable neighbouring regions in the UK has delivered some fascinating insights regarding the effect of quarantine in regions with different population structure. We have discovered that for a fixed quarantine duration, the timing of its start is very important in the sense that the second epidemic wave after lifting the quarantine can be significantly smaller or larger depending on the specific population structure. Also, the later the fixed-duration quarantine is introduced, the smaller is the resulting final number of deaths at the end of the outbreak. When the quarantine is introduced simultaneously for all regions, increasing quarantine duration postpones and slightly reduces the epidemic peak, though without noticeable differences in peak magnitude between different quarantine durations.

scholarly journals Imported cases, community action, policy and institutional systems drive Hong Kong’s COVID-19 experience

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Joy P. Cruz ◽  
Rachel Ganly ◽  
Zilin Li ◽  
Stuart Gietel-Basten
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Health Department ◽  
Community Action ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
City State ◽  
The City

This paper investigates the profile of COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong, highlighting the unique age structure of confirmed cases compared to other states. Whilst the majority of cases in most states around the world have fitted an older age profile, our analysis shows that positive cases in Hong Kong have been concentrated amongst younger age groups, with the largest incidence of cases reported in the 15-24 age group. This is despite the population’s rapidly ageing structure and extremely high levels of population density. Using detailed case data from Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Department and Immigration Department, we analyze the sex and age distribution of the confirmed cases along with their recent travel histories and immigration flows for the period January to April, 2020. Our analysis highlights Hong Kong’s high proportion of imported cases and large overseas student population in developing COVID-19 hotspot areas such as the United Kingdom. Combined with targeted and aggressive early policy measures taken to contain the virus, these factors may have contributed to the uniquely younger age structure of COVID-19 cases in the city. Consequently, this young profile of confirmed cases may have prevented fatalities in the city-state.

scholarly journals Mathematical Model of Three Age-Structured Transmission Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Folashade B. Agusto ◽  
Shamise Easley ◽  
Kenneth Freeman ◽  
Madison Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Stable Disease ◽  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Disease Free

We developed a new age-structured deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus. The model is analyzed to gain insights into the qualitative features of its associated equilibria. Some of the theoretical and epidemiological findings indicate that the stable disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes, in the presence of disease induced mortality, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Further analysis of the model indicates that the qualitative dynamics of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. This is further emphasized by the sensitivity analysis results, which shows that the dominant parameters of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. However, the numerical simulations show the flaw of the exclusion of age in the transmission dynamics of chikungunya with regard to control implementations. The exclusion of age structure fails to show the age distribution needed for an effective age based control strategy, leading to a one size fits all blanket control for the entire population.

Reproductive value and analyses of population dynamics of age-structured populations

2021 ◽  
pp. 285-298
Author(s):  
Bernt-Erik Sæther ◽  
Steinar Engen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Good Description ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Reproductive Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Age Structured

Many populations of especially long-lived species show large temporal variation in age structure, which can complicate estimating of important population parameters. This occurs because it can be difficult to disentangle whether variation in numbers is due to fluctuations in the environment or caused by changes in the age distribution. This chapter shows that fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population, that is, the sum of all individual reproductive values, often provide a good description of the population dynamics but still is not confounded by fluctuations in age structure. Because the change in the total reproductive rate is exactly equal to the growth rate of the population, this quantity enables decomposition of the long-run growth rate into stochastic components caused by age-specific variation in demographic and environmental stochasticity. The chapter illustrates the practical application of this approach in stochastic demography by analyses of the dynamics of several populations of birds and mammals. It puts a strong focus on these methods being particularly useful in viability analyses of small populations of vulnerable or endangered species.

scholarly journals The dynamics of sex-age structure of the population in urban and rural areas in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the years 1991-2013

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (31) ◽  
pp. 87-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gulnara Nyussupova ◽  
Aisulu Kalimurzina
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas

Abstract In this article we discuss and analyse changes in the sex-age structure of both the urban and the rural population of the Republic of Kazakhstan since independence (1991) and until 2013. Spatial analysis by age and sex was carried out for the urban and rural population of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The article focuses on the population of Astana and Almaty as cities of “republican subordination”. The aim of this article is to study and analyse the sex-age structure of the total population taking the urban and rural population from 1991 to 2013 separately. For comparison and analysis of statistical data in the dynamics, the data by sex and age of the urban and rural population for 1991, 2001 and 2011 were examined. Thus changes over 10 years are considered. The age groups for which the data were collected were based on differentiation of the population by economic status: pre-working (0-14 years), working (15-64), and post-working age (over 65 years).

scholarly journals Mortality, fertility, and economic development: An analysis of 201 countries from 1960 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingfeng Li ◽  
Amy O. Tsui ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Saifuddin Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Northern Africa ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Background: The efficient utilization of the economic opportunities effected by rapid reductions in fertility and mortality is known as the demographic dividend. In this paper, our objectives are to (1) estimate the contribution of fertility and mortality decline during the period 1960-2015 to demographic dividend due to change in age structure, and (2) assess the economic consequences of population age structure change. Methods: Employing the cohort component method, we performed population projections with different scenarios of changes in mortality and fertility between 1960 and 2015 in 201 countries. We specifically focused on low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Northern Africa, and sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) Results: The child dependency ratio, defined as the number of children (0-14 years) per 100 working age population (15-64 years), would be 54 higher than the observed level in 2015 in both Asia and LAC, had fertility not declined. That means that every 100 working age population would need to support an additional 54 children. Due to the less substantial fertility decline, child dependency ratio would only be 16 higher if there were no fertility decline in SSA. Global GDP (constant 2011 international $) would be $19,016 billion less than the actual level in 2015 had the fertility decline during 1960-2015 not occurred, while the respective regional decreases are $12,390 billion in Asia, $1,985 billion in LAC, $484 billion in Northern Africa, and $321 billion in SSA. Conclusions: SSA countries may accelerate the catch-up process in reducing fertility by investing more in family planning programs. This will lead to a more favorable dependency ratio and consequently facilitate a demographic dividend opportunity in SSA, which, if properly utilized, will spur economic development for the coming decades.

scholarly journals Integration of the Demographic Dividend into Government Plans: A Case of the Kwazulu-Natal Province of South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-102
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Population Reference Bureau ◽  
The Right

The Population reference Bureau policy brief, (Gribble and Bremmer, 2012):1) described the demographic dividend as “…the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country’s mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population. With fewer births each year, a country’s young dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working-age population. With fewer people to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth if the right social and economic policies developed and investments made”. Several South Africa based studies have explored age structure and the prospects of a demographic dividend. These studies range from those that explore timing of the dividend to those that investigate readiness to harness the dividend. Three aspects of the demographic dividend are investigated by this research. Firstly, the paper will explore the age structure of KwaZulu-Natal population to ascertain the timing of the age-structure (youth bulge) that is a pre-requisite for the dividend. Secondly, demographic, health and education characteristics that are knows to affect the achievement of the dividend will be examined. Lastly, the extent of integration of the demographic dividend into Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) in the province will be explored.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document