scholarly journals TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ATAS PEMBERLAKUAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN HORTIKULTURA INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-76
Author(s):  
Naufal Nur Mahdi ◽  
Suharno ◽  
Rita Nurmalina
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Horticultural Products ◽  
Early Harvest

Abstrak Dampak positif seharusnya diperoleh subsektor hortikultura Indonesia atas implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, subsektor hortikultura Indonesia belum memberikan kinerja yang berarti ketika impor produk hortikultura meningkat melalui tahapan penurunan tarif ACFTA dalam program The Early Harvest Program (EHP). Studi ini meneliti keragaan impor hortikultura Indonesia dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga menganalisis daya saing produk hortikultura negara ASEAN-5 dengan China serta dampak kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap impor produk hortikultura Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode RSCA (Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage) dan metode ekonometrik melalui pendekatan model gravitasi dengan data panel dari tahun 2001-2018. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan nilai RSCA, Indonesia tidak berdaya saing pada kedua jenis produk hortikultura tersebut. Model gravitasi juga menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota ACFTA mampu memanfaatkan perjanjian regional ini dengan ditandai tingginya nilai impor hortikultura Indonesia terutama dari China. Ini menandakan bahwa pelaksanaan ACFTA telah menciptakan efek penciptaan perdagangan dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antara negara anggota ACFTA, namun tidak menyebabkan pengalihan perdagangan dengan negara non-anggota (perdagangan dengan negara non anggota tidak mengalami penurunan). Oleh karena itu, diperlukan langkah kebijakan peningkatan daya saing melalui perbaikan komponen manajerial dan teknologi seiring terbukanya pasar di kawasan ini bagi UMKM Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Data Panel, Daya Saing, Integrasi Ekonomi, Model Gravitasi, RSCA Abstract The positive impact of the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on the indonesia’s horticulture sub-sector should be obtained. However, the Indonesian horticulture sub-sector has not shown significant performance when import of horticultural products has increased through the ACFTA tariff reduction stages in The Early Harvest Programm (EHP). This study examines the performance of Indonesian horticultural imports using descriptive analysis. It also analyzes the competitiveness of horticultural products of ASEAN-5 countries with China as well as the impact of trade creation and trade diversion of the implementation of ACFTA on imports of Indonesian horticultural products. It uses the RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) index and the gravity model using panel data from 2001-2018. It shows that Indonesia is not competitive in both types of horticultural products (RSCA <0). The gravity model also indicates that ACFTA member countries have taken advantage of this regional agreement, marked by the high value of Indonesian horticultural imports, especially from China. This shows that the implementation of the ACFTA has created a trade creation effect by increasing intra-regional trade between ACFTA member countries, but has not led to a diversion of trade with non-member countries (trade with non-member countries has not decreased). Therefore, it is necessary to make policy strategies to increase competitiveness through improvements in managerial and technological components in line with the opening of the market in this region to Indonesian MSMEs. Keywords: Competitiveness, Economic Integration, Gravity Model, Panel Data, RSCA JEL Classification: F15, F17, Q17

Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

2021 ◽  
pp. 001573252110215
Author(s):  
Loitongbam Bishwanjit Singh
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Multilateral Resistance

This article investigates the impacts on the India–Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Agreement (IAFTA) on trade creation and trade diversion. The gravity model is employed, where multilateral resistance terms are included. A panel data set of 45 countries that included India, ASEAN-10 nations and India’s top 34 trading partners in 2018 were used for the period from 1996 to 2018. The article explored that IAFTA leads to a trade creation in total bilateral trade in terms of exports and imports. The analysis further explored that the import creation effect was higher than that of the export creation effect.

An application of the SMART model to assess impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huong Vu Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Market Analysis ◽  
Uneven Distribution ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Eu

This paper assesses the potential impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU by adopting the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) based on two scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the EVFTA would result in a significant increase in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU, implying that the EU would be still among the biggest car sources for Vietnam in the upcoming time. However, when Vietnam extends its coverage of tariff elimination to also ASEAN+3, the reduction in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU would be considerable. Another important finding is that an uneven distribution in Vietnam’s additional automobile imports from the EU by nation, automobile group and automobile product would occur when the EVFTA comes into effect. In both scenarios, trade creation effects are higher than trade diversion effects and hence, the EVFTA could raise welfare of Vietnam. Based on these results, the paper ends by drawing out some implications for the Vietnamese government and domestic enterprises to be better prepare for the upcoming ambitious EVFTA.

scholarly journals Analisis Dampak ACFTA dan Kebijakan Perdagangan Kakao di Pasar Domestik dan China

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Darmawan Lubis ◽  
Sri Nuryanti
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Early Harvest

Indonesia dan Malaysia bersama dengan negara ASEAN lainnya telah melakukan liberalisasi perdagangan melalui perjanjian ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Liberalisasi tersebut dimulai dengan pelaksanaan Early Harvest Program (EHP) pada tahun 2005. Dengan menggunakan analisis daya saing Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan (ISP), dan analisis regresi berganda diketahui bahwa daya saing biji kakao Indonesia di pasar China terhadap Malaysia ternyata tidak meningkat sejak pelaksanaan ACFTA. Daya saing ekspor biji kakao Indonesia di pasar China telah memasuki tahap kematangan. Malaysia telah menghentikan ekspor biji kakao ke China dan menggeser ke produk setengah jadi. Indonesia tidak meraih keuntungan dalam perdagangan bebas ACFTA hanya dengan mengekspor produk primer seperti biji kakao ke China. Oleh karena itu, Indonesia harus mengekspor produk kakao seperti kakao bubuk, kakao pasta dan lemak kakao untuk memperoleh nilai tambah dan memperbaiki daya saing kakao di pasar China maupun internasional.

Free Trade Agreement between Tunisia and the European Union, Do Institutions Matter?: An Empirical Validation by A Gravity Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-36
Author(s):  
Anis Kacem
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Spatial Econometrics ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Institutional Dimension ◽  
North And South

Tunisia has signed a free trade agreement with the European Union in 1996, which provides for the reduction of tariff barriers between Tunisia and the EU. In this article, we aim to know and test whether the similarity of the institutional framework has to stimulate international trade between Tunisia and the European Union. In this context, we built a variable called “Institutional distance” to valid the institutional dimension of international trade, near borders effects reported in the literature. To this end, a gravity model was used initially (Tunisia and 21 European countries). Secondly, the estimate shows the existence of spatial autocorrelation. The latter has been corrected using spatial econometrics. The results show that the geographical distance remains more important than the institutions in this type of agreement between north and south shores of the Mediterranean.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement on Indonesia’s Trade Balance

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Junaidi
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Impact

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.

scholarly journals The Formation of AFTA and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China’s Agricultural Exports

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-36
Author(s):  
Nguyen Khanh Doanh ◽  
Jeehoon Lee ◽  
Yoon Heo
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows

This study analyzes the impacts of the formation of AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Agreement) on China’s agricultural exports. The Hausman-Taylor analysis is applied to panel data collected from China and its 68 trading partners from 1993–2012. Our major findings areas follows. First, the discrimination in tariffs imposed by AFTA diverts trade in agricultural products from China toward AFTA’s member countries. Second, at the sectoral level, the trade diversion effects of AFTA’s formation on China’s exports are significant in the case of beverage and tobacco industries. AFTA and China need to focus more on diversifying and differentiating their farming products. To gain better access to AFTA’s market, more investment in research and development activities is recommended as a cure for Chinese farmers. Moreover, this study implies that more efforts in reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers to further liberalize trade between China and AFTA could enhance their bilateral trade flows.

scholarly journals Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the North American Free Trade Agreement: The Case of the Agricultural Sector

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dwi Susanto ◽  
C. Parr Rosson ◽  
Flynn J. Adcock
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
North American ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The North ◽  
Tariff Rates ◽  
Agricultural Imports ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the effect of the U.S.-Mexico trade agreement under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The results suggest that U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico have been responsive to tariff rate reductions applied to Mexican products. A one percentage point decrease in tariff rates is associated with an increase in U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico by 5.31% in the first 6 years of NAFTA and by 2.62% in the last 6 years of NAFTA. U.S. imports from Mexico have also been attributable to the pre-NAFTA tariff rates. Overall, the results indicate that the U.S-Mexico trade agreement under NAFTA has been trade creating rather than trade diverting.

scholarly journals The Effects of AfCFTA on Food Security Sustainability: An Analysis of the Cereals Trade in the SADC Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Takudzwa Pasara ◽  
Nolutho Diko
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Consumer Surplus ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
Trade Perspective

The signing of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has stimulated a lot of trade potential in Africa that could see the continent significantly improving its intra-trade levels, thereby boosting the economic welfare of Africans. In light of food security sustainability in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, this paper employed the World Integrated Trade Solution, Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) simulation model to assess the potential effects of the AfCFTA on trade in cereals. Cereals have been regarded as the most critical component of food security. The model indicated trading partners for each of the 15 SADC countries, their level of trade creation, trade diversion, consumer surplus, welfare and revenue effects of any regional trade agreement. The results indicated that the AfCFTA will only lead to positive outcomes in four (Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Namibia) of the fifteen SADC countries, with the rest remaining unchanged. In general, previously closed economies, that is, economies which were not part of a free trade agreement (FTA) or a deeper arrangement will stand to gain more than open economies because they are already opened up at the free trade level, which is equivalent to the AfCFTA. Thus, as far as cereals and food security is concerned, the AfCFTA will add minimal value. However, the overall value gains are likely to be greater when all food categories are included in the simulations. In general, the study recommends that African countries should deepen their integration levels to perhaps common markets where production factors, that is, labour and capital, become mobile. This will have multiplier effects in improving continental food security sustainability from a trade perspective.

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