Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

This article investigates the impacts on the India–Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Agreement (IAFTA) on trade creation and trade diversion. The gravity model is employed, where multilateral resistance terms are included. A panel data set of 45 countries that included India, ASEAN-10 nations and India’s top 34 trading partners in 2018 were used for the period from 1996 to 2018. The article explored that IAFTA leads to a trade creation in total bilateral trade in terms of exports and imports. The analysis further explored that the import creation effect was higher than that of the export creation effect.

Tourism and migration: Identifying the channels with gravity models

As a result of the role played by migrants in supporting host economies, the interest in understanding the impact of migration is growing. However, the literature remains silent on the channels by which migration affects tourism. The present article aims to isolate the effect of migrant networks on tourism by exploring the role of information, travel costs, and demand for visiting friends and relatives. To this end, a theoretical framework that rests upon a structural gravity model is developed. The model allows not only a better understanding of the relationship between tourism and migration but also to overcome several empirical biases like the omission of multilateral resistance in tourism flows or controlling for endogeneity. The empirical analysis considered a sample of 34 OECD countries as destination/home and 157 origin/countries-of-birth for tourist arrivals/migration stock. A positive and robust effect of migration on inbound tourism is estimated and the three channels proposed to drive this nexus become relevant.

Gravity models of interprovincial migration flows in Canada with hierarchical multifactor structure

Following recent contributions on migration flows, we contribute to the literature by relaxing restrictions on how multilateral resistance to migration (MRM) may affect province-pair-specific migration flows. We follow recent advancements in the three-dimensional (3D) panel data models with a hierarchical multifactor structure and develop the more flexible specification for MRM. In addition to including unobserved global (country) factors with province-pair-specific coefficients, we can control for local origin (destination)-specific factors that have heterogeneous effects on destinations (origins). We apply the 3DCCE estimator advanced by Kapetanios et al. (J Econom, 2020) to an analysis of the determinants of interprovincial migration flows in Canada from 1976 to 2014. In particular, we find that the recent rise in the internal migration flows, registered in Canada from 2009 onwards, is more likely to be associated with the relative income inequality and network presence rather than the conventional long-run determinants such as income and unemployment differentials.

International Trade Implications of Highly Pathogenic Poultry Disease Events

Animal disease events can lead to international trade restrictions which can vary in duration, products included, and geographical extent. Accounting for multilateral resistance between trading partners, a general gravity model of trade is estimated with a Hausman-Taylor and a Hausman-Taylor seemingly unrelated estimator to evaluate the trade quantity impact by commodity resulting from highly pathogenic poultry disease events in 24 exporting markets. Commodity specific results show that quantity traded and products demanded during a disease event differ by commodities. Understanding these impacts can better prepare exporters for potential changes in trade quantity given a disease event.

TIME, SPACE, AND SKILLS IN DESIGNING MIGRATION POLICY

This paper proposes a multi-country model of international migration in which college-educated workers choose destination countries, preferred types of visas, and the optimal durations of stay. In this framework, I investigate the global implications of further development of the European Union (EU) program of preferential temporary visas for the highly skilled immigrants and compare them to the effects of income tax allowances for medium-term, college-educated, foreign workers. The two counterfactuals indicate a significant rise in the yearly inflows and total stocks of college-educated immigrants into the EU. The outcomes of the former policy are driven by a “visa-substitution” effect within the group of current migrants, while the latter scenario results in an increase in the pool of international migrants. Both policies induce a “destination–substitution” effect: losses of skilled migrants by non-EU states, which is reinforced by multilateral resistance to migration that is micro-founded in the model.

The Research on Anti-dumping, Cost and Chinese Export: Based on Multilateral Resistance Term of Gravity Model

Using country-industry data, this study investigates the effect of anti-dumping on Chinese export via Multilateral Resistance Term of Gravity Model. Begin with the effect of anti-dumping on total export, we further investigate the mechanism between them with extensive margin and intensive margin theory in Dutt et al. (2013). We find that, anti-dumping has a statistically significant and negative effect on total export, extensive margin and intensive margin, and the increase of variable cost is the mechanism of negative effect between anti-dumping and export.

The Influence of Attitudes toward Immigrants on International Migration

We investigate whether anti-immigrant attitudes affect migrant inflows in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Using longitudinal exhaustive data, we find that natives’ hostility, particularly natives’ propensity to discriminate on the labor market, reduces immigration. This effect is comparable to more conventional migration factors. We obtain robust results when we, for example, capture hostility with far-right parties’ popularity instead and control for tighter immigration policies or multilateral resistance to migration. We find a stronger effect for EU-to-EU migrants, migrants from developed countries and linguistically close countries. Our results raise a challenge for policy makers when the demand for foreign workers and anti-immigrant sentiment are present.