scholarly journals Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015-2016 austral summer: causes and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Doss-Gollin ◽  
Angel Muñoz ◽  
Simon Mason ◽  
Max Pastén
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Predictive Skill

scholarly journals Heavy Rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015/16 Austral Summer: Causes and Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictive Skill

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (17) ◽  
pp. 6669-6685 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Doss-Gollin ◽  
Ángel G. Muñoz ◽  
Simon J. Mason ◽  
Max Pastén
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
River System ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Paraguay River ◽  
Model Output Statistics

During the austral summer 2015/16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the lower Paraguay River basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems were conducive to mesoscale convective activity and enhanced precipitation. These circulation patterns were favored by cross-time-scale interactions of a very strong El Niño event, an unusually persistent Madden–Julian oscillation in phases 4 and 5, and the presence of a dipole SST anomaly in the central southern Atlantic Ocean. The simultaneous use of seasonal and subseasonal heavy rainfall predictions could have provided decision-makers with useful information about the start of these flooding events from two to four weeks in advance. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts available at the beginning of November successfully indicated heightened probability of heavy rainfall (90th percentile) over southern Paraguay and Brazil for December–February. Raw subseasonal forecasts of heavy rainfall exhibited limited skill at lead times beyond the first two predicted weeks, but a model output statistics approach involving principal component regression substantially improved the spatial distribution of skill for week 3 relative to other methods tested, including extended logistic regressions. A continuous monitoring of climate drivers impacting rainfall in the region, and the use of statistically corrected heavy precipitation seasonal and subseasonal forecasts, may help improve flood preparedness in this and other regions.

scholarly journals Events of Heavy Rainfall and Strong Winds in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Sergio H. Franchito ◽  
V. Brahmananda Rao ◽  
Manoel A. Gan ◽  
Clovis M. E. Santo ◽  
Jorge C. Conforte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Strong Winds

<p class="zhengwen">The relationships of strong winds and heavy rainfall in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, was investigated. Wind data from Project Elektro/Climatico collected by thirteen Platforms of Data Collection were used. The results showed that in the west sector the occurrence of strong winds was higher in the center and south areas and decreased northwards. In the central sector the occurrence of strong wind episodes was higher southwards while in the litoral it was lower due to probably the lack of wind data collected during the austral summer. In Teodoro Sampaio, Andradina, Santa Rita d'Oeste, Votuporanga (west), Rio Claro, Tatui (central) and Ubatuba (litoral) 15, 18, 28, 12, 11, 7 and 3 extreme events occurred, respectively (maximum wind higher than 20 ms<sup>-1</sup> together with rainfall higher than 25 mm day<sup>-1</sup>). A case study of an episode of extreme event which occurred in Andradina on 15 October 2009 was examined. Heavy rainfall accompanied with high winds and strong divergence at 200 hPa and ascending motion were observed in the region due to intense convection along a cold front that moved fast over Sao Paulo State.</p>The identification of regions with strong winds and their relation with heavy precipitation must drive electrical energy generation and distribution what is important nowadays. So, the main importance of this research is its applicability to the energy sector.

Serological screening for Brucella spp. and Leptospira spp. antibodies in southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina from Elephant Island, Antarctica, in 2003 and 2004

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 ◽  
pp. 161-170
Author(s):  
AM Sánchez-Sarmiento ◽  
V Ruoppolo ◽  
MMC Muelbert ◽  
JS Ferreira Neto ◽  
JL Catão-Dias
Keyword(s):  
Austral Summer ◽  
Agglutination Test ◽  
South Shetland Islands ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mirounga Leonina ◽  
Serological Screening ◽  
Elephant Seals ◽  
Southern Elephant Seals ◽  
Monitoring And Surveillance ◽  
Elephant Island

Brucella spp. and Leptospira spp. antibodies were surveyed in 35 southern elephant seals (SESs) Mirounga leonina at Elephant Island (South Shetland Islands), western Antarctic peninsula, in the Austral summer of 2003 and 2004. The rose Bengal test and a commercial competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) were used to detect Brucella spp. exposure, and the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with 22 live serovars was used to determine anti-Leptospira spp. antibodies. We found evidence of Brucella spp. exposure in 3 of 35 (8.6%) SESs tested via the c-ELISA displaying high percentage inhibition (PI), similar to other studies in pinnipeds in which Brucella spp. antibodies have been determined. Two of the 3 positives were pups (PI = 70.4 and 86.6%), while the third was an adult female (PI = 48.8%). The 3 c-ELISA positive SESs were additionally tested via the serum agglutination test but were found to be negative. All individuals were negative for antibodies against 22 Leptospira spp. serovars by MAT. These results contribute to the knowledge and monitoring of zoonotic pathogens with epizootic potential in Southern Ocean pinnipeds. Given the potential impact that pathogens may have on the abundance of wild (sometimes threatened and endangered) populations, constant monitoring and surveillance are required to prevent pathogen spread, particularly under forecast climate change scenarios.

Predicting changes in distribution of a large coastal shark in the face of the strengthening East Australian Current

2020 ◽  
Vol 642 ◽  
pp. 163-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Niella ◽  
AF Smoothey ◽  
V Peddemors ◽  
R Harcourt
Keyword(s):  
Austral Summer ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Commercial Fisheries ◽  
East Australian Current ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Marine Animals ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
The Face

In the face of accelerating climate change, conservation strategies will need to consider how marine animals deal with forecast environmental change as well as ongoing threats. We used 10 yr (2009-2018) of data from commercial fisheries and a bather protection program along the coast of New South Wales (NSW), southeastern Australia, to investigate (1) spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence in bull sharks and (2) environmental factors affecting bull shark occurrence along the coast of NSW. Predicted future distribution for this species was modelled for the forecast strengthening East Australian Current. Bull sharks were mostly harvested in small to larger estuaries, with average depth and rainfall responsible for contrasting patterns for each of the fisheries. There was an increase in the occurrence of bull sharks over the last decade, particularly among coastal setline fisheries, associated with seasonal availability of thermal gradients >22°C and both westward and southward coastal currents stronger than 0.15 and 0.60 m s-1, respectively, during the austral summer. Our model predicts a 3 mo increase in the availability of favourable water temperatures along the entire coast of NSW for bull sharks by 2030. This coastline provides a uniquely favourable topography for range expansion in the face of a southerly shift of warmer waters, and habitat is unlikely to be a limiting factor for bull sharks in the future. Such a southerly shift in distribution has implications for the management of bull sharks both in commercial fisheries and for mitigation of shark-human interactions.

Enteric viruses in drinking water supplies

2002 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
A.P. Wyn-Jones ◽  
J. Watkins ◽  
C. Francis ◽  
M. Laverick ◽  
J. Sellwood
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Liquid Culture ◽  
Plaque Assay ◽  
Enteric Viruses ◽  
Enteric Virus ◽  
The Other ◽  
Raw Water ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Water Supplies

Two rural spring drinking water supplies were studied for their enteric virus levels. In one, serving about 30 dwellings, the water was chlorinated before distribution; in the other, which served a dairy and six dwellings the water was not treated. Samples of treated (40 l) and untreated (20 l) water were taken under normal and heavy rainfall conditions over a six weeks period and concentrated by adsorption/elution and organic flocculation. Infectious enterovirus in concentrates was detected in liquid culture and enumerated by plaque assay, both in BGM cells, and concentrates were also analysed by RT-PCR. Viruses were found in both raw water supplies. Rural supplies need to be analysed for viruses as well as bacterial and protozoan pathogens if the full microbial hazard is to be determined.

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