scholarly journals A Bayesian Analysis of the Molnupiravir Trial Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers ◽  
Quentin Frederik Gronau

On October 1st 2021, Merck issued a press release claiming that "molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801), an investigational oral antiviral medicine, significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death at a planned interim analysis of the Phase 3 MOVe-OUT trial in at risk, non-hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19." Specifically, 28/385 (7.3%) of patients who received molnupiravir were hospitalized or died, compared to 53/377 (14.1%) in the placebo control group. In order to quantify the evidence that molnupiravir is indeed effective, we conducted a Bayesian logistic regression. Our Bayesian analysis confirms that the molnupiravir data are indeed promising. A default analysis raises the probability for H+ from 0.50 to about 0.97 and is robust to a range of prior specifications. Nevertheless, the evidence is not so compelling as to rule out H0 almost entirely – its strength is the statistical equivalent of throwing two consecutive sixes with a fair die.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers ◽  
Quentin Frederik Gronau

On Monday November 9th 2020, Pfizer and BioNTech issued a press release in which Pfizer CEO Dr. Albert Bourla stated: “Today is a great day for science and humanity. The first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine’s ability to prevent COVID-19”. But what exactly are the initial data, and how strong is the initial evidence? Based on the available data, we conduct a Bayesian logistic regression with group membership (placebo vs. vaccine) as a predictor. Our results confirm that the Pfizer interim Phase 3 data are indeed highly promising. Even though the case numbers are relatively small, their distribution across the placebo and vaccinated group is so lopsided that (1) the evidence in favor of effectiveness is overwhelming; (2) the effect is almost certainly very large, although how large exactly is difficult to tell.


Nephrology ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. A97-A97
Author(s):  
Hoy We ◽  
Baker P ◽  
Wang Z ◽  
Cass A ◽  
Mathews Jd ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Zhang ◽  
Zhongju Xu ◽  
Tao Jiang ◽  
Jialu Zhang ◽  
Pinxian Huang ◽  
...  

Equus asinus L [Equidae; Asini Corii Colla] (donkey-hide gelatin, Ejiao), a well-known traditional Chinese medicine, has been widely used to nourish the blood, especially for women. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of Ejiao in blood-deficient patients. A total of 210 participants were recruited and randomly allocated into the placebo control group and Ejiao-treated group (6 g/day). The primary outcomes on the efficacy of Ejiao included traditional Chinese medicine symptom scores, blood indicators, and SF-36. The secondary outcomes were changes in fireness and safety evaluation. Results showed that Ejiao treatment for 8 weeks had significantly improved dizziness symptoms. Among the tested 24 blood biochemical parameters, the hematocrit and red blood cell numbers decreased in the placebo control group, but decreased significantly less in the Ejiao treatment group. The white blood cell and neutrophil counts increased in the Ejiao group but were within the normal range. In addition, the quality of life improved as the scores in SF-36 domains were significantly higher in the Ejiao group. At the same time, there was no significant change in the fire–heat symptoms score or other safety parameters. Considering all these, our study showed that Ejiao has a promising effect in women suffering from blood deficiency without obvious adverse effects.


1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Arapakis ◽  
A Trovas ◽  
G Orphanoudakis ◽  
P Vassilikos

Though the antithrombotic properties of sulfinpyrazone (SP) in arterial thrombosis have been documented, its value in phlebothrombosis remains uncertain. In this randomized double-blind trial, the effect of SP (500mg I.M. twice daily for the first 10 postoperative days) on postoperative DVT was compared with a placebo control group. 96 (65 male and 31 female) patients 41 to 83 years of age undergoing major surgical operations were included in the trial. The composition of the two groups (treated and placebo) were homogenious regarding age, sex and type of operation (0,30<p<0,50). The incidence of DVT was estimated clinically and isotopically by the 125I-labelled figrinogen test.No clinical phlebothrombosis was observed in either group but DVT was detected isotopically in 4 (8,3%) out of 48 in the placebo and in 7 (14,5%) of the 48 in the SP group. Analysis by the x2 showed no statistical significance in the prevalence of postoperative DVT between the two groups (x2<x20,30/1). These results suggest that SP has no place in the prevention of postoperative DVT.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. e032469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vania Sandoz ◽  
Camille Deforges ◽  
Suzannah Stuijfzand ◽  
Manuella Epiney ◽  
Yvan Vial ◽  
...  

IntroductionEmergency caesarean section (ECS) qualifies as a psychological trauma, which may result in postnatal post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Maternal PTSD may not only have a significant negative impact on mother–infant interactions, but also on long-term infant development. The partner’s mental health may also affect infant development. Evidence-based early interventions to prevent the development of postpartum PTSD in mothers are lacking. Immediately after a traumatic event, memory formation is vulnerable to interference. There is accumulating evidence that a brief behavioural intervention including a visuospatial task may result in a reduction in intrusive memories of the trauma.Methods and analysisThis study protocol describes a double-blind multicentre randomised controlled phase III trial testing an early brief maternal intervention including the computer game ‘Tetris’ on intrusive memories of the ECS trauma (≤1 week) and PTSD symptoms (6 weeks, primary outcome) of 144 women following an ECS. The intervention group will carry out a brief behavioural procedure including playing Tetris. The attention-placebo control group will complete a brief written activity log. Both simple cognitive tasks will be completed within the first 6 hours following traumatic childbirth. The intervention is delivered by midwives/nurses in the maternity unit.The primary outcome will be differences in the presence and severity of maternal PTSD symptoms between the intervention and the attention-placebo control group at 6 weeks post partum. Secondary outcomes will be physiological stress and psychological vulnerability, mother–infant interaction and infant developmental outcomes. Other outcomes will be psychological vulnerability and physiological regulation of the partner and their bonding with the infant, as well as the number of intrusive memories of the event.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval was granted by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Canton de Vaud (study number 2017–02142). Dissemination of results will occur via national and international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals, public conferences and social media.Trial registration numberNCT 03576586.


2007 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 649-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Giancola ◽  
Michelle D. Corman

This article presents the first systematic test of the attention-allocation model for alcohol-related aggression. According to this model, alcohol has a “myopic” effect on attentional capacity that presumably facilitates aggression by focusing attention on more salient provocative, rather than less salient inhibitory, cues in hostile situations. Aggression was assessed using a laboratory task in which mild electric shocks were received from, and administered to, a fictitious opponent. Study 1 demonstrated that a moderate-load cognitive distractor suppressed aggression in intoxicated subjects (to levels even lower than those exhibited by a placebo control group). Study 2 assessed how varying the magnitude of a distracting cognitive load affected aggression in the alcohol and placebo conditions. Results indicated that the moderate-load distraction used in Study 1 (i.e., holding four elements in sequential order in working memory) suppressed aggression best. Cognitive loads of larger and smaller magnitudes were not successful in attenuating aggression.


1995 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Moul ◽  
Bert Goldman ◽  
Beverly Warren

The effect of exercise on cognitive performance in an older population was studied. Thirty sedentary men and women 65–72 years of age were randomly assigned to a walking group, a weight training group, or a placebo control group. Intervention groups exercised 30–60 min 5 days per week for 16 weeks, with the walking group training at 60% heart rate reserve, the weight training group employing the DAPRE method of weight progression, and the placebo control group engaging in mild range-of-motion and flexibility movements that kept their heart rates close to resting levels. At baseline and 16 weeks posttraining each subject completed the Ross Information Processing Assessment (RIPA), a maximal graded treadmill test, and a strength assessment of the knee extensors and elbow flexors. Sixteen weeks of walking improved VO2peak of the sedentary subjects 15.8%; VO2peak did not improve in the other two groups. Additionally, the RIPA scores of the walking group increased 7.5%, while those of the weight-training and control groups showed little change.


1999 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 34-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Niederman ◽  
Maggie C. Tantraphol ◽  
Patricia Slnin ◽  
Catherine Hayes ◽  
Suzy Conway

Abstract Introduction Common clinical experience suggests that tooth whitening agents are 100% effective. This study uses meta-analysis of data from published randomized controlled clinical trials to determine the efficacy of tooth whitening agents. Methods A MEDLINE search strategy was developed and implemented to systematically identify clinical trials on dentist-prescribed, home-applied tooth whitening agents, using 10% carbamide peroxide, published between 1989-1999. Inclusion criteria (e.g., in English, human clinical trials) and exclusion criteria (e.g., not placebo controlled) were established and clinical trials that met these criteria were critically appraised for validity and clinical applicability. Meta-analysis was then used to quantitatively integrate the findings. Results Seven studies were identified that met the inclusion and validity criteria. These studies indicated that: Whitening results in a significant mean change of 6 4 shade guide units (p < 0.01), while the placebo control group exhibited little change (0.7 0.6, p > 0.05). 93% of the bleached patients exhibited 2 shade guide unit change, while 20% of the placebo control group exhibited this change. The brand of bleaching agent had a significant effect on tooth whitening, but the daily application time and duration of treatment did not. Whitening is maintained for 6 months for 1/2 of the people treated. Neither gingival indices nor plaque indices were adversely or favorably affected by bleaching. Clinical Applicability The data from the reviewed studies indicate that rather than being 100% effective, on average: 73% (93% for bleached group minus 20% placebo group) of people who whiten their teeth will exhibit a whitening that is 2 shade guide units greater than the placebo. 20% of the people who use dentist-prescribed, home-applied bleaching will achieve a mean whitening effect of 5 shade guide units. Re-treatment for 50% of people may be necessary to maintain this effect longer than 6 months. The methods used here are Internet applicable for other clinical topics.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan-Hoang Vuong ◽  
Tung Ho ◽  
Viet-Phuong La ◽  
Dam Van Nhue ◽  
Bui Quang Khiem ◽  
...  

Every year, the Vietnamese people reportedly burned about 50,000 tons of joss papers, which took the form of not only bank notes, but iPhones, cars, clothes, even housekeepers, in hope of pleasing the dead. The practice was mistakenly attributed to traditional Buddhist teachings but originated in fact from China, which most Vietnamese were not aware of. In other aspects of life, there were many similar examples of Vietnamese so ready and comfortable with adding new norms, values, and beliefs, even contradictory ones, to their culture. This phenomenon, dubbed “cultural additivity”, prompted us to study the co-existence, interaction, and influences among core values and norms of the Three Teachings –Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism–as shown through Vietnamese folktales. By applying Bayesian logistic regression, we evaluated the possibility of whether the key message of a story was dominated by a religion (dependent variables), as affected by the appearance of values and anti-values pertaining to the Three Teachings in the story (independent variables). Our main findings included the existence of the cultural additivity of Confucian and Taoist values. More specifically, empirical results showed that the interaction or addition of the values of Taoism and Confucianism in folktales together helped predict whether the key message of a story was about Confucianism, β_{VT⋅VC} =0.86. Meanwhile, there was no such statistical tendency for Buddhism. The results lead to a number of important implications. First, this showed the dominance of Confucianism because the fact that Confucian and Taoist values appeared together in a story led to the story’s key message dominated by Confucianism. Thus, it presented the evidence of Confucian dominance and against liberal interpretations of the concept of the Common Roots of Three Religions (“tam giáo đồng nguyên”) as religious unification or unicity. Second, the concept of “cultural additivity” could help explain many interesting socio-cultural phenomena, namely the absence of religious intolerance and extremism in the Vietnamese society, outrageous cases of sophistry in education, the low productivity in creative endeavors like science and technology, the misleading branding strategy in business. We are aware that our results are only preliminary and more studies, both theoretical and empirical, must be carried out to give a full account of the explanatory reach of “cultural additivity”.


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