scholarly journals Understanding and countering the spread of conspiracy theories in social networks: Evidence from epidemiological models of Twitter data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Kauk ◽  
Helene Kreysa ◽  
Stefan R. Schweinberger
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Mobile Network ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
Fact Checking

Conspiracy theories in social networks are considered to have adverse effects on individuals' compliance with public health measures in the context of a pandemic situation. A deeper understanding of how conspiracy theories propagate through social networks is critical for the development of countermeasures. The present work focuses on a novel approach to characterize the propagation of conspiracy theories through social networks by applying epidemiological models to Twitter data. A Twitter dataset was searched for tweets containing hashtags indicating belief in the ``5GCoronavirus'' conspiracy theory, which states that the COVID-19 pandemic is a result of, or enhanced by, the enrollment of the 5G mobile network. Despite the absence of any scientific evidence, the ``5GCoronavirus'' conspiracy theory propagated rapidly through Twitter, beginning at the end of January, followed by a peak at the beginning of April, and ceasing/disappearing approximately at the end of June 2020. An epidemic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model was fitted to this time series with acceptable model fit, indicating parallels between the propagation of conspiracy theories in social networks and infectious diseases. Extended SIR models were used to simulate the effects that two specific countermeasures, fact-checking and tweet-deletion, could have had on the propagation of the conspiracy theory. Our simulations indicate that fact-checking is an effective mechanism in an early stage of conspiracy theory diffusion, while tweet-deletion shows only moderate efficacy but is less time-sensitive. More generally, an early response is critical to gain control over the spread of conspiracy theories through social networks. We conclude that an early response combined with strong fact-checking and a moderate level of deletion of problematic posts is a promising strategy to fight conspiracy theories in social networks. Results are discussed with respect to their theoretical validity and generalizability.

scholarly journals Understanding and countering the spread of conspiracy theories in social networks: Evidence from epidemiological models of Twitter data

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256179
Author(s):  
Julian Kauk ◽  
Helene Kreysa ◽  
Stefan R. Schweinberger
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Mobile Network ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
Fact Checking

Conspiracy theories in social networks are considered to have adverse effects on individuals’ compliance with public health measures in the context of a pandemic situation. A deeper understanding of how conspiracy theories propagate through social networks is critical for the development of countermeasures. The present work focuses on a novel approach to characterize the propagation of conspiracy theories through social networks by applying epidemiological models to Twitter data. A Twitter dataset was searched for tweets containing hashtags indicating belief in the “5GCoronavirus” conspiracy theory, which states that the COVID-19 pandemic is a result of, or enhanced by, the enrollment of the 5G mobile network. Despite the absence of any scientific evidence, the “5GCoronavirus” conspiracy theory propagated rapidly through Twitter, beginning at the end of January, followed by a peak at the beginning of April, and ceasing/disappearing approximately at the end of June 2020. An epidemic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model was fitted to this time series with acceptable model fit, indicating parallels between the propagation of conspiracy theories in social networks and infectious diseases. Extended SIR models were used to simulate the effects that two specific countermeasures, fact-checking and tweet-deletion, could have had on the propagation of the conspiracy theory. Our simulations indicate that fact-checking is an effective mechanism in an early stage of conspiracy theory diffusion, while tweet-deletion shows only moderate efficacy but is less time-sensitive. More generally, an early response is critical to gain control over the spread of conspiracy theories through social networks. We conclude that an early response combined with strong fact-checking and a moderate level of deletion of problematic posts is a promising strategy to fight conspiracy theories in social networks. Results are discussed with respect to their theoretical validity and generalizability.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and the “Film Your Hospital” Conspiracy Theory: Social Network Analysis of Twitter Data (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wasim Ahmed ◽  
Francesc López Seguí ◽  
Josep Vidal-Alaball ◽  
Matthew S Katz
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Network ◽  
Social Network Analysis ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Twitter Data

BACKGROUND During the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of conspiracy theories have emerged. A popular theory posits that the pandemic is a hoax and suggests that certain hospitals are “empty.” Research has shown that accepting conspiracy theories increases the likelihood that an individual may ignore government advice about social distancing and other public health interventions. Due to the possibility of a second wave and future pandemics, it is important to gain an understanding of the drivers of misinformation and strategies to mitigate it. OBJECTIVE This study set out to evaluate the #FilmYourHospital conspiracy theory on Twitter, attempting to understand the drivers behind it. More specifically, the objectives were to determine which online sources of information were used as evidence to support the theory, the ratio of automated to organic accounts in the network, and what lessons can be learned to mitigate the spread of such a conspiracy theory in the future. METHODS Twitter data related to the #FilmYourHospital hashtag were retrieved and analyzed using social network analysis across a 7-day period from April 13-20, 2020. The data set consisted of 22,785 tweets and 11,333 Twitter users. The Botometer tool was used to identify accounts with a higher probability of being bots. RESULTS The most important drivers of the conspiracy theory are ordinary citizens; one of the most influential accounts is a Brexit supporter. We found that YouTube was the information source most linked to by users. The most retweeted post belonged to a verified Twitter user, indicating that the user may have had more influence on the platform. There was a small number of automated accounts (bots) and deleted accounts within the network. CONCLUSIONS Hashtags using and sharing conspiracy theories can be targeted in an effort to delegitimize content containing misinformation. Social media organizations need to bolster their efforts to label or remove content that contains misinformation. Public health authorities could enlist the assistance of influencers in spreading antinarrative content.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and the “Film Your Hospital” Conspiracy Theory: Social Network Analysis of Twitter Data

10.2196/22374 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. e22374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wasim Ahmed ◽  
Francesc López Seguí ◽  
Josep Vidal-Alaball ◽  
Matthew S Katz
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Network ◽  
Social Network Analysis ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Twitter Data

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of conspiracy theories have emerged. A popular theory posits that the pandemic is a hoax and suggests that certain hospitals are “empty.” Research has shown that accepting conspiracy theories increases the likelihood that an individual may ignore government advice about social distancing and other public health interventions. Due to the possibility of a second wave and future pandemics, it is important to gain an understanding of the drivers of misinformation and strategies to mitigate it. Objective This study set out to evaluate the #FilmYourHospital conspiracy theory on Twitter, attempting to understand the drivers behind it. More specifically, the objectives were to determine which online sources of information were used as evidence to support the theory, the ratio of automated to organic accounts in the network, and what lessons can be learned to mitigate the spread of such a conspiracy theory in the future. Methods Twitter data related to the #FilmYourHospital hashtag were retrieved and analyzed using social network analysis across a 7-day period from April 13-20, 2020. The data set consisted of 22,785 tweets and 11,333 Twitter users. The Botometer tool was used to identify accounts with a higher probability of being bots. Results The most important drivers of the conspiracy theory are ordinary citizens; one of the most influential accounts is a Brexit supporter. We found that YouTube was the information source most linked to by users. The most retweeted post belonged to a verified Twitter user, indicating that the user may have had more influence on the platform. There was a small number of automated accounts (bots) and deleted accounts within the network. Conclusions Hashtags using and sharing conspiracy theories can be targeted in an effort to delegitimize content containing misinformation. Social media organizations need to bolster their efforts to label or remove content that contains misinformation. Public health authorities could enlist the assistance of influencers in spreading antinarrative content.

scholarly journals Hunting Conspiracy Theories During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 205630512110432
Author(s):  
J. D. Moffitt ◽  
Catherine King ◽  
Kathleen M. Carley
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Country Of Origin ◽  
Language Models ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Classification Method ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Fact Checking ◽  
Twitter Users ◽  
Different Origin

The fear of the unknown combined with the isolation generated by COVID-19 has created a fertile environment for strong disinformation, otherwise known as conspiracy theories, to flourish. Because conspiracy theories often contain a kernel of truth and feature a strong adversarial “other,” they serve as the perfect vehicle for maligned actors to use in influence campaigns. To explore the importance of conspiracies in the spread of dis-/mis-information, we propose the usage of state-of-the-art, tuned language models to classify tweets as conspiratorial or not. This model is based on the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model developed by Google researchers. The classification method expedites analysis by automating a process that is currently done manually (identifying tweets that promote conspiracy theories). We identified COVID-19 origin conspiracy theory tweets using this method and then used social cybersecurity methods to analyze communities, spreaders, and characteristics of the different origin-related conspiracy theory narratives. We found that tweets about conspiracy theories were supported by news sites with low fact-checking scores and amplified by bots who were more likely to link to prominent Twitter users than in non-conspiracy tweets. We also found different patterns in conspiracy vs. non-conspiracy conversations in terms of hashtag usage, identity, and country of origin. This analysis shows how we can better understand who spreads conspiracy theories and how they are spreading them.

scholarly journals FACT-CHECKING: AN IMPORTANT TOOL TO COMBAT FAKE NEWS ON HEALTH IN COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Fake News ◽  
The Public ◽  
Social Media Networks ◽  
The Social ◽  
Fact Checking ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
City State ◽  
False News

Objective: To demonstrate the importance of Fact-Checking tools in combating health fake news in the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Quantitative descriptive study, conducted during the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic. Fake news were accounted and identified through the website chequeado.com, registered in the Agência Lupo and Aos Fatos checking platforms, belonging to the International Fact-Checking Network, an international understanding with recognized news verification methodologies. The registered news originated from the social media/networks Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram, Twitter, and websites. They were later classified according to content in Conspiracy Theory, Prevention/Treatment/Cure, Authorities/Agency Measures, Situation of a city, state and country, Causes, Symptoms, Public Figure and False Context. Results: 529 fake news about coronavirus were obtained, of these 306 were from the Agência Lupo platform, and 223 from the Aos Fatos platform. A total of 99 (18.72%) fake news were about Conspiracy Theory 99 (18.72%) Authorities/Agency Measures and 98 (18.53%) False Context. As for the origin of fake news 382 (72.21%) were from Facebook and 67 (12.66%) from Whatsapp. Conclusion: The Fact-Checking tools in combating misinformation on social networks are important because they deny false news, unlikely allegations, and no justification related to the Covid-19 pandemic. These check sites alert social networks, policymakers, and the public to create measures that educate and protect the integrity and health of individuals and prevent them from falling victim to misinformation.

scholarly journals Standardized Method for the Assessment of Behavioral Responses of Zebrafish Larvae

Biomedicines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 884
Author(s):  
Hideyuki Maeda ◽  
Noritoshi Fukushima ◽  
Akihiro Hasumi
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Video Tracking ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Laboratory Setting ◽  
Zebrafish Larvae ◽  
Experimental Systems ◽  
Standardized Method ◽  
Life Phenomena ◽  
And Behavior

Zebrafish are easy to breed in a laboratory setting as they are extremely fertile and produce dozens of eggs per set. Because zebrafish eggs and the skin of the early-stage larvae are transparent, their embryos and the hearts and muscles of their larvae can be easily observed. Multiple rapid analyses of heart rate and behavior can be performed on these larvae simultaneously, enabling investigation of the influence of neuroactive substances on abnormal behavior, death, and associated pathogenetic mechanisms. Zebrafish larvae are becoming increasingly popular among researchers and are used in laboratories worldwide to study various vertebrate life phenomena; more experimental systems using zebrafish will undoubtedly be developed in the future. However, based on the available literature, we believe that the conceptualization of a protocol based on scientific evidence is necessary to achieve standardization. We exposed zebrafish larvae at 6–7 days post-fertilization to 50 repeated light–dark stimuli at either 15-min or 5-min intervals. We measured the traveled distance and habituation time through a video tracking apparatus. The traveled distance stabilized after the 16th repetition when the zebrafish were exposed to light–dark stimuli at 15-min intervals and after the 5th repetition when exposed at 5-min intervals. Additionally, at 15-min intervals, the peak of the traveled distance was reached within the first minute in a dark environment, whereas at 5-min intervals, it did not reach the peak even after 5 min. The traveled distance was more stable at 5-min intervals of light/dark stimuli than at 15-min intervals. Therefore, if one acclimatizes zebrafish larvae for 1 h and collects data from the 5th repetition of light/dark stimuli at intervals of 5 min in the light/dark test, a stable traveled distance result can be obtained. The establishment of this standardized method would be beneficial for investigating substances of unknown lethal concentration.

A failure of imagination: Competing narratives of 9/11 truth

Diogenes ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 121-129
Author(s):  
Mark Fenster
Keyword(s):  
World Trade Center ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Popular Politics ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Contemporary World ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Trade Center ◽  
Cover Up ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

This essay describes the emergence of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon as an object of conspiratorial intrigue and imagination, offering a snapshot of the “9/11 truth movement” and its various theories as they began to reach full bloom. Theories about the attacks have come to constitute the dominant conspiratorial present – a present that looks remarkably like the mid- and late-twentieth-century past, despite significant changes in information technology and the continuing institutionalization and ironization of conspiracy theory as an influential form of popular politics. In addition to the 9/11 conspiracy community, the essay considers the battle over the 9/11 Commission’s review of the government’s failure to anticipate the terrorist attacks. The Commission engaged in knowing and savvy efforts to respond to conspiracy theories and to preempt popular belief in them, offering an authoritative narrative (or, more precisely, set of narratives) to explain what occurred. Meanwhile, the 9/11 truth movement made equally knowing and savvy efforts to critique the official account, responding with its own efforts to reinterpret and re-narrate the attacks, their causes, and what they signify about the contemporary world. While the 9/11 Commission may have criticized the federal government and its intelligence services for their failures of imagination prior to the attacks, the truth movement criticized the Commission either for a failure of imagination – an explanation for the attacks that could see through the “official” account – or for a quite imaginative cover-up of the hidden truths of 9/11. By considering the clash between official authorities and an active conspiracy community, this essay considers how the movement attempted to form a collective political and scholarly community, producing a blizzard of texts offering narratives that compete with the ones told by the Commission that seek the impossible grail of conspiracy theory: the truth. The essay also considers the effects, if any, of the state’s attempt to preempt and respond to conspiracy theories.

scholarly journals Conspiracy Theories and Their Societal Effects During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062110002
Author(s):  
Lotte Pummerer ◽  
Robert Böhm ◽  
Lau Lilleholt ◽  
Kevin Winter ◽  
Ingo Zettler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Random Sample ◽  
Social Engagement ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Conspiracy Theory ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Institutional Trust ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
The Media ◽  
And Behavior

During COVID-19, conspiracy theories were intensely discussed in the media. Generally, both believing in conspiracy theories (i.e., explanations for events based on powerholders’ secret arrangements) and being confronted with a conspiracy theory have been found to predict cognition and behavior with negative societal effects, such as low institutional trust. Accordingly, believing in conspiracy theories around COVID-19 should reduce institutional trust, support of governmental regulations and their adoption, and social engagement (e.g., helping members of risk groups). We tested these predictions in a national random sample survey, an experiment, and a longitudinal study ( N total = 1,213; all studies were preregistered). Indeed, believing in and being confronted with a COVID-19 conspiracy theory decreased institutional trust, support of governmental regulations, adoption of physical distancing, and—to some extent—social engagement. Findings underscore the severe societal effects of conspiracy theories in the context of COVID-19.

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