Effects of Measurement Error in the American Community Survey on Statistical Analysis: An Example using County and Census Tract Mortality Rates.
The American Community Survey (ACS) summary file data provide rolling 5-year estimates of demographic and socioeconomic indicator data for small geographiesthroughout the United States. These estimates are commonly used as indicators forregression models to measure conditions in communities. The Margins of Error (MOE) inthe ACS estimates for small geographic areas can often be very large, and without takingthem into account, regression analyses using them can be mis-specified, leading to bias inregression coefficients and model standard errors. This paper directly comparesmeasurement error model specifications to naive model specifications for a mortalityoutcome in Texas Census tracts using Bayesian model specializations. The results showthat there is bias in the naive regression model results. We urge users of the ACSsummary file data to be aware of such bias as it can potentially impact interpretation ofmodel results and hypothesis tests.