scholarly journals Runoff Forecasting and Its Application in Reservoir Operation and Flood Warnings in Nepal

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Anup Khanal ◽  
Netra Prasad Timalsina ◽  
Knut Alfredsen
Keyword(s):  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Runoff Forecasting ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Runoff Forecast ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Hbv Model ◽  
Flood Warnings

Runoff forecasting is a very useful tool in hydrology to predict runoff based on a weather forecast. In developed countries, the method is also currently used for flood forecasting, and to predict runoff for hydropower reservoirs and water allocation for irrigation. But this is not the case in Nepal. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to set up a system for runoff forecasting for a Nepalese catchment and illustrate how these procedures could be utilized in reservoir operation and flood warnings. This paper provides the necessary steps for implementing such a system in Nepal, including the selection of a meteorological forecast model, bias correction of the model output, HBV model set up, and runoff forecast simulation.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v15i0.11288HYDRO Nepal JournalJournal of Water Energy and EnvironmentVolume: 15, 2014 JulyPage: 23-29

scholarly journals The use of regression for assessing a seasonal forecast model experiment

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 851-861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus E. Benestad ◽  
Retish Senan ◽  
Yvan Orsolini
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Numerical Model Experiments ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We show how factorial regression can be used to analyse numerical model experiments, testing the effect of different model settings. We analysed results from a coupled atmosphere–ocean model to explore how the different choices in the experimental set-up influence the seasonal predictions. These choices included a representation of the sea ice and the height of top of the atmosphere, and the results suggested that the simulated monthly mean air temperatures poleward of the mid-latitudes were highly sensitivity to the specification of the top of the atmosphere, interpreted as the presence or absence of a stratosphere. The seasonal forecasts for the mid-latitudes to high latitudes were also sensitive to whether the model set-up included a dynamic or non-dynamic sea-ice representation, although this effect was somewhat less important than the role of the stratosphere. The air temperature in the tropics was insensitive to these choices.

scholarly journals The use of regression for assessing a seasonal forecast model experiment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus E. Benestad ◽  
Retish Senan ◽  
Yvan Orsolini
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Numerical Model Experiments ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We demonstrate how factorial regression can be used to analyse numerical model experiments, testing the effect of different model settings. We analysed results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to explore how the different choices in the experimental set-up influence the seasonal predictions. These choices included a representation of the sea-ice and the choice of top of the atmosphere, and the results suggested that the simulated monthly mean temperatures poleward of the mid-latitudes are highly sensitivity to the specification of the top of the atmosphere, interpreted as the presence or absence of a stratosphere. The seasonal forecasts for the mid-to-high latitudes were also sensitive to whether the model set-up included a dynamic or non-dynamics sea-ice representation, although this effect was less important than the role of the stratosphere. The temperature in the tropics was insensitive to these choices.

scholarly journals Wind turbines in icing conditions: performance and prediction

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Dierer ◽  
R. Oechslin ◽  
R. Cattin
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
The World ◽  
Accretion Model ◽  
Weather Forecast Model ◽  
Set Up

Abstract. Icing on structures is an important issue for wind energy developments in many regions of the world. Unfortunately, information about icing conditions is mostly rare due to a lack of measurements. Additionally, there is not much known about the operation of wind turbines in icing conditions. It is the aim of the current study to investigate the effect of icing on power production and to evaluate the potential of icing forecasts to help optimizing wind turbine operation. A test site with two Enercon E-82 turbines was set up in the Jura region in Switzerland in order to study the turbines' behaviour in icing conditions. Icing forecasts were performed by using an accretion model driven by results of the mesoscale weather forecast model WRF. The icing frequency at the test site is determined from pictures of a camera looking at the measurement sensors on the nacelle. The results show that the site is affected by frequent icing: 11.5 days/year of meteorological icing and 41.5 days/year of instrumental icing were observed corresponding to a factor of about four. The comparison of power production with and without blade heating shows that blade heating results in a 3.5% loss and operation without blade heating results in a 10% loss of the annual power production due to icing. Icing forecasts are performed for winter 2009/2010. Simulated and observed icing events agree well and also coincide with periods of power drop. Thus, the results suggest that icing forecasts can help to optimize the operation of wind parks in icing conditions.

Environmental model studies for the Istanbul master plan. Part I: hydrodynamical design basis and marine disposal of wastewater

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. S. Hansen ◽  
H. J. Vested ◽  
M. A. Latif
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Marmara Sea ◽  
Junction Area ◽  
3 Dimensional ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Characteristic Features ◽  
Set Up

A modelling study of the hydrodynamics and spreading of wastewater from existing and future outfalls in the Bosphorus region has been conducted applying a 3-Dimensional model. The modelling is based on SYSTEM 3, which is a general modelling system for baroclinic flow simulating unsteady currents, waterlevels, salinity and temperature within the model area. The model set-up covers the Black Sea-Bosphorus-Marmara Sea junction area. The set-up is calibrated by data from a dedicated field program and previous field experience. The model is designed to describe the characteristic features of the flow in the junction area such as the effects of variations in waterlevel differences between the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea on the important two-layer structure in the strait and the flow fields generated by the upper layer jet in the Bosphorus-Marmara junction. This model has been applied for evaluation of disposal of wastewater and for the subsequent water quality studies. The general use of a baroclinic 3-D hydrodynamic model to simulate disposal of wastewater is discussed. Examples of the application of the model of the junction area to evaluate the different strategies for disposal of wastewater are presented.

Modelling of impregnation of γ-alumina with cobalt and molybdenum salts. CoCl2-(NH4)2MoO4-γ-Al2O3 (aluminate type) system

1987 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 663-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Hanika ◽  
Vladimír Janoušek ◽  
Karel Sporka
Keyword(s):  
Effective Diffusion ◽  
Type System ◽  
Catalyst Particle ◽  
Ammonium Molybdate ◽  
Active Components ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Cobalt Dichloride ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Electron Microanalysis ◽  
Kinetics Of

Adsorption data for the impregnation of alumina with an aqueous solution of cobalt dichloride and ammonium molybdate were treated in terms of the Langmuir adsorption isotherm and compared with a mathematical model set up to describe the kinetics of simultaneous impregnation of a support by two components. The effective diffusion coefficients of the two components at 25 °C in a cylindrical particle of alumina were obtained. The validity of the model used was verified qualitatively by comparing the numerical results with the experimental time dependent concentration profiles of the active components in a catalyst particle, measured by electron microanalysis technique.

scholarly journals Using CFD to Evaluate Natural Ventilation through a 3D Parametric Modeling Approach

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2197
Author(s):  
Nayara Rodrigues Marques Sakiyama ◽  
Jurgen Frick ◽  
Timea Bejat ◽  
Harald Garrecht
Keyword(s):  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
Parametric Modeling ◽  
Cfd Simulations ◽  
3D Design ◽  
Post Process ◽  
Test House ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Computational Fluid Dynamics Cfd ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Passive Strategy

Predicting building air change rates is a challenge for designers seeking to deal with natural ventilation, a more and more popular passive strategy. Among the methods available for this task, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) appears the most compelling, in ascending use. However, CFD simulations require a range of settings and skills that inhibit its wide application. With the primary goal of providing a pragmatic CFD application to promote wind-driven ventilation assessments at the design phase, this paper presents a study that investigates natural ventilation integrating 3D parametric modeling and CFD. From pre- to post-processing, the workflow addresses all simulation steps: geometry and weather definition, including incident wind directions, a model set up, control, results’ edition, and visualization. Both indoor air velocities and air change rates (ACH) were calculated within the procedure, which used a test house and air measurements as a reference. The study explores alternatives in the 3D design platform’s frame to display and compute ACH and parametrically generate surfaces where air velocities are computed. The paper also discusses the effectiveness of the reference building’s natural ventilation by analyzing the CFD outputs. The proposed approach assists the practical use of CFD by designers, providing detailed information about the numerical model, as well as enabling the means to generate the cases, visualize, and post-process the results.

SHOCKS AND FRICTIONS IN THAI ECONOMY: THROUGH THE LENS OF BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
VIMUT VANITCHAREARNTHUM
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Factor ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Business Cycle Accounting ◽  
Labor Wedge ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Investment Fluctuation

This paper applies business cycle accounting methodology to analyze the sources of aggregate fluctuations in Thai economy, especially during the recent severe recessions in 1997–1998 and 2008–2009. This exploration helps researchers uncover possible shocks and frictions that drive business cycle in a small and open economy within a minimal model set-up. Under this methodology, a fluctuation in aggregate output can be accounted for by exogenous time-varying wedges, namely efficiency wedge, investment wedge, labor wedge, government wedge, etc. This study found that the efficiency wedge is essential in accounting for aggregate output, consumption and investment fluctuation, while the bond wedge, which only present in an open economy setting, is a prime factor in accounting for movement in current accounts. I conducted counterfactual experiments to see what accounts for the output drop during recent recessions. I find that the efficiency wedge played a key role in recent recessions in Thailand, while the investment wedge was accounted for slow economic recovery after the recessions.

Human lung cancer explants model: Set up of a predictive model for treatment

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. S28
Author(s):  
B.M.A. Lenoir ◽  
D.S. Ferber ◽  
F. Eichhorn ◽  
M. Eichhorn ◽  
I. Zörnig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Human Lung ◽  
Human Lung Cancer ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up

scholarly journals Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikołaj Piniewski ◽  
Mateusz Szcześniak ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Odra River ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Set Up

Abstract The objective of this paper is to assess climate change impacts on spatiotemporal changes in annual and seasonal runoff and its components in the basins of two large European rivers, the Vistula and the Odra, for future horizons. This study makes use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, set up at high resolution, and driven by a multi-model ensemble (MME) of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5. This paper presents a wealth of illustrative material referring to the annual and seasonal runoff (R) in the reference period as well as projections for the future (MME mean change), with explicit illustration of the multi-model spread based on the agreement between models and statistical significance of change according to each model. Annual R increases are dominating, regardless of RCP and future horizon. The magnitude of the MME mean of spatially averaged increase varies between 15.8% (RCP 4.5, near future) and 41.6% (RCP 8.5, far future). The seasonal patterns show the highest increase in winter and the lowest in spring, whereas the spatial patterns show the highest increase in the inner, lowland part, and the lowest in the southern mountainous part of the basin.

A Most Active Customer

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 470-502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Turchetti
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Atomic Energy Commission ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Atomic Energy ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Research Committee ◽  
Energy Field ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The U.S

After World War II had ended, Italy, not unlike other developed countries, held the ambition to establish an atomic energy program. The Peace Treaty of 1947 forbade its administration from seeking to acquire atomic weaponry, but in 1952 a national research committee was set up to explore the peaceful uses of atomic energy, in particular with regard to building nuclear reactors. One of the committee’s goals was to use nuclear power to make the country less reliant on foreign energy provisions. Yet, this paper reveals that the atomic energy project resulted in actually increasing Italy’s dependence on overseas assistance. I explain the reasons for this outcome by looking at the unfolding of U.S.–Italy relations and the offers of collaboration in the atomic energy field put forth by the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. I argue that these offers undermined plans to shape the nuclear program as its Italian architects had envisioned, caused them to reconsider the goal of self-sufficiency in energy provisioning, and reconfigured the project to be amenable to the security and economic priorities of the U.S. administration. In this way, I conclude, the path for the Italian project to “de-develop” was set.

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