Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model

Abstract The objective of this paper is to assess climate change impacts on spatiotemporal changes in annual and seasonal runoff and its components in the basins of two large European rivers, the Vistula and the Odra, for future horizons. This study makes use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, set up at high resolution, and driven by a multi-model ensemble (MME) of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5. This paper presents a wealth of illustrative material referring to the annual and seasonal runoff (R) in the reference period as well as projections for the future (MME mean change), with explicit illustration of the multi-model spread based on the agreement between models and statistical significance of change according to each model. Annual R increases are dominating, regardless of RCP and future horizon. The magnitude of the MME mean of spatially averaged increase varies between 15.8% (RCP 4.5, near future) and 41.6% (RCP 8.5, far future). The seasonal patterns show the highest increase in winter and the lowest in spring, whereas the spatial patterns show the highest increase in the inner, lowland part, and the lowest in the southern mountainous part of the basin.

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Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-6-197-2002 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 197-209 ◽

Cited By ~ 70

Author(s):

F. Bouraoui ◽

L. Galbiati ◽

G. Bidoglio

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Nutrient Loads ◽

Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

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Climate change impacts on hydrology in the Dak B’la watershed, Central Highland Vietnam based on SWAT model

10.34154/2020-ejcc-0201-22-31/euraass ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 22-31 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nguyen Kim Loi ◽

Vo Ngoc Quynh Tram ◽

Nguyen Thi Tinh Au

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

High Reliability ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Agricultural Watershed ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Central Highland ◽

Average Water

Climate is the main factor affecting hydrology in a watershed. For purely agricultural watershed, hydrological assessment and management play a very important role in the region's agricultural development. In this study, the hydrological was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. This paper aimed to calibrate and validate the SWAT model in Dak B’la watershed in Central Highland Vietnam and assess the climate change on water discharge. The coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe index (NSI), and Percent BIAS (PBIAS) during the calibration process was 0.75, 0.72, and -1.15 respectively and validation process was 0.82, 0.83, 3.67 respectively. It proved the high reliability of the SWAT model after calibration. The two climate scenarios were selected in this investigation: scenario A is the existing climate using the data from 2001 to 2018 and scenario B is the A1B emission scenario for the future period from 2020 to 2069. Compared to the average water discharge from 2001-2018 and average water discharge from 2020 to 2069, the results indicated that climate change increases the average water discharge (0.55%), especially in 2050, the water discharge in the flood season (in November) is 584 m3/s, which higher than the largest flood in 2009 of 450 m3/s.

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Critical review of the application of SWAT in the upper Nile Basin countries

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-3761-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 3761-3788 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

A. van Griensven ◽

P. Ndomba ◽

S. Yalew ◽

F. Kilonzo

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Nile Basin ◽

Area Index ◽

Tropical Highlands ◽

Model Set ◽

Set Up

Abstract. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological simulation tool that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modeling, land use modeling, climate change impact modeling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are clustered in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of Geographic Information System (GIS) based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straight forward even in data scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to knowledgeable models. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modeling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile Basin countries. A number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, it is difficult to give an overall positive evaluation to most of the reported SWAT models. An important gap is the lack of attention that is given to the vegetation and crop processes. None of the papers reported any adaptation to the crop parameters, or any crop related output such as leaf area index, biomass or crop yields. A proper simulation of the land cover is important for obtaining correct runoff generation, evapotranspiration and erosion computations. It is also found that a comparison of SWAT applications on the same or similar case study but by different research teams and/or model versions resulted in very different results. It is therefore recommended to try to find better methods to evaluate the representativeness of the distributed processes and parameters, especially when land use studies are envisaged or predictions of the future through environmental changes. The main recommendation is that more details on the model set-up, the parameters and outputs should be provided in the journal papers or supplementary materials in order to allow for a more stringent evaluation of these models.

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Assessment of the performance of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for a small agricultural catchment in Austria

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21490 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Francis Kilundu Musyoka ◽

Andreas Klik ◽

Peter Strauss

Keyword(s):

Soil Water ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Yield Data ◽

Set Up ◽

The Impact ◽

Water Assessment ◽

Water Contents ◽

Soil Water Contents

<p>Hydrological models enable comprehensive examination, understanding and quantification of hydrological processes in catchments under the influence of different characteristics. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has the ability to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yield in such catchments.</p><p>The objective of this study is to apply the SWAT model on a small agricultural watershed, calibrate and validate it with measured flow, sediment and crop yield data. The model is set up for the HOAL catchment in Petzenkirchen, Lower Austria. The catchment has an area of 66 hectares. The climate is humid with mean annual temperatures of around 10&#176;C, and annual precipitation of around 800 mm. Soils include Cambisols and Planosols with medium to poor infiltration capacities. Gleysols occur close to the stream. At present, 87% of the catchment area is arable land, 5% is used as pasture, 6% is forested and 2% is paved. The agricultural activities mainly involve wheat based crop rotation including winter wheat, winter barley, sweet and silage corn and canola. The catchment is divided into 37 fields and for each field exact information about tillage date and type of implement used, date of planting and harvest, date and amount of fertilization and plant protection are available. This information is incorporated in the model during set up. The procedures of model set up, sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation are outlined. A Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) procedure within SWAT-CUP is used to auto-calibrate and validate the model. The model calibration (2012-2014) and validation (2015-2017) is based on the observed daily discharge and daily sediment concentration at the watershed outlet. Event based observations of runoff and sediment yield from two sub-watersheds are available as well as measured soil water contents at 30 points and crop yield data from different fields. Stream flow and sediment calibration are performed at the watershed outlet as well as at sub watershed level. Results of the SWAT model capability to predict flow, sediment and crop yield as well as soil water contents in the small watersheds will be presented.</p>

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Using Geospatial Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Estimate Climate Change Impacts on Nitrogen Export: Case Study for a Forest and Pasture Dominated Watershed in North Carolina

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi7070280 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (7) ◽

pp. 280 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Md Alam ◽

Mehmet Ercan ◽

Faria Zahura ◽

Jonathan Goodall

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Carolina ◽

General Circulation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Inorganic Nitrogen ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Nitrogen Loading ◽

Nitrogen Export

Many watersheds are currently experiencing streamflow and water quality related problems that are caused by excess nitrogen. Given that weather is a major driver of nitrogen transport through watersheds, the objective of this study was to predict climate change impacts on streamflow and nitrogen export. A forest and pasture dominated watershed in North Carolina Piedmont region was used as the study area. A physically-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model parameterized using geospatial data layers and spatially downscaled temperature and precipitation estimates from eight different General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used for this study. While temperature change predictions are fairly consistent across the GCMs for the study watershed, there is significant variability in precipitation change predictions across the GCMs, and this leads to uncertainty in the future conditions within the watershed. However, when the downscaled GCM projections were taken as a model ensemble, the results suggest that both high and low emission scenarios would result in an average increase in streamflow of 14.1% and 12.5%, respectively, and a decrease in the inorganic nitrogen export by 12.1% and 8.5%, respectively, by the end of the century. The results also show clear seasonal patterns with streamflow and nitrogen loading both increasing in fall and winter months by 97.8% and 50.8%, respectively, and decreasing by 20.2% and 35.5%, respectively, in spring and summer months by the end of the century.

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Climate change variability assessment on water resources by SWAT model: A Review

WEENTECH Proceedings in Energy ◽

10.32438/wpe.23021 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 246-268

Author(s):

Amit Raj ◽

M.Siva Kumar ◽

Satish Kumar ◽

H.P. Singh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

21St Century ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Renewable Resource ◽

Base Flow ◽

Weather Data ◽

Geographical Regions

Water is a renewable resource for the Sustaining Ecosystem. Rapid industrialization and population impacts the climate. The imbalance of Climate changes over various geographical regions affects the hydrological and morphological behaviour of water resources. The Water balances of the system are analysed via the SWAT Model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). By simulating and predicting future hydrological behaviour with different scenarios using many climatological models. Using weather data and predicting future hydrological outputs such as Runoff, Temperature, Base flow, groundwater flow, AET etc. in 21st century. Model is calibrated and validated using statistical methods. Results of various modelling Researches in field of SWAT and their major findings are discussed in this review paper. The future Scope of SWAT modelling and its Applications are also recommended. Forty papers are discussed in tabular form with their results and their future improvements were concluded. This paper fulfills a need for precise and quick reviews of recent researches in field of SWAT modelling with climate change on water resources. This will help researchers, academician’s insights into precise climate change impacts on water resources in 21st Century. Necessary steps to be adopted for their successful extreme repercussions of climate change and measures adopted for managing the severe damages to our Ecosystem with sustainable development goals in new millennium are discussed.

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Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13137120 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 7120

Author(s):

Alberto Martínez-Salvador ◽

Agustín Millares ◽

Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽

Carmelo Conesa-García

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact ◽

Semi Arid

This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.

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A Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Modeling Approach to Prioritize Soil Conservation Management in River Basin Critical Areas Coupled With Future Climate Scenario Analysis

Air Soil and Water Research ◽

10.1177/11786221211021395 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 117862212110213

Author(s):

Ashish Pandey ◽

K. C. Bishal ◽

Praveen Kalura ◽

V. M. Chowdary ◽

C. S. Jha ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Management Practices ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Critical Areas ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Water Assessment ◽

Soil And Water

About 44% of the Indian landmass experiences the adverse impact of land degradation. This loss of sediments caused by soil erosion reduces the water quality of local water bodies and decreases agricultural land productivity. Therefore, decision-makers must formulate policies and management practices for sustainable management of basins that are cost-effective and environment friendly. Application of the best management practices (BMPs) to properly manage river basins is difficult and time-consuming. Its implication under various climate change scenarios makes it more complicated but necessary to achieve sustainable development. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was employed to prioritize the Tons river basin’s critical areas in the central Indian states coupled with future climate scenario analysis (2030–2050) using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for simulation of streamflow and sediment yield for daily and monthly scales using the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) technique. The values of coefficient of determination ( R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and root mean square error (RMSE)-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) were .71, .70, −8.3, and .54, respectively during the calibration period, whereas for validation the values were .72, .71, −3.9, and .56, respectively. SWAT model underestimated the discharge during calibration and overestimated the discharge during validation. Model simulations for sediment load exhibited a similar trend as streamflow simulation, where higher values are reported during August and September. The average annual sediment yield of the basin for the baseline period was 6.85 Mg ha−1, which might increase to 8.66 Mg ha−1 and 8.79 Mg ha−1 in the future years 2031–2050 and 2081–2099, respectively. The BMPs such as recharge structure, contour farming, filter strip 3 and 6 m, porous gully plugs, zero tillage, and conservation tillage operations have been considered to evaluate the soil and water conservation measures. Recharge structure appeared to be the most effective measure with a maximum reduction of sediment by 38.98% during the baseline period, and a 37.15% reduction in the future scenario. Sub-watersheds, namely SW-8, SW-10, SW-12, SW-13, SW-14, SW-17, SW-19, SW-21, SW-22, and SW-23, fall under the high category and are thus considered a critical prone area for the implementation and evaluation of BMPs. Compared to the baseline period, the effectiveness of BMPs is slightly decreasing in the 2040s, increasing in the 2070s and decreasing in the 2090s. Recharge structure and filter strip 6 m have been found to nullify the high soil erosion class completely. Overall, SWAT model simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenarios were observed to be reliable and can be adopted to identify critical areas for river basins having similar climatic and geographical conditions.

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Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Kon – Ha Thanh River Watershed, Vietnam

10.29007/1hrc ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Ngoc Duong Vo ◽

Thanh Hao Nguyen ◽

Huy Cong Vu ◽

Philippe Gourbesville ◽

Quang Binh Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Well Being ◽

Complex Problem ◽

Protection Measures ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Climate change is a complex problem and becoming the leading challenge for humankind in the 21st century. It will affect almost aspects of human well-being. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on water resources and proposed solutions to respond to climate change is urgent and necessary. This study applied the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and GIS (Geographic Information System) technique to simulate water flows due to the impact of climate change. The models were applied for Kon – Ha Thanh river catchment, located in Vietnam where is considered as one of the countries most affected by climate change. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated well using daily flow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients are 0.77 and 0.88, respectively. Two scenarios from Vietnamese government (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used to analyze the variation of stream flow in three periods: 2016- 2035, 2045-2065, and 2080-2100. The results show that the flow in Kon – Ha Thanh rivers will vary complicatedly and severely under the impact of climate change. This flow may increase roughly 150.8% in flood season and reduce around 11.8% in dry season. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that there are the changes in the flood dynamics as well as the hydrological shift of this region. This study presents an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would be useful in sustainable planning and devising resilience strategies.

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Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability Using SWAT Model in a Semi-Arid Basin: Case of El Kalb River, Lebanon

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology8030134 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 134

Author(s):

Jad Saade ◽

Maya Atieh ◽

Sophia Ghanimeh ◽

Golmar Golmohammadi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Model Performance ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Satisfactory Precision ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact

Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is crucial for depicting the vulnerability of water resources and for identifying proper adaptation measures. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of El Kalb river, a major perennial river in Lebanon. The model performance was tested for monthly flow at two stations under a nine-year calibration period (2003–2011) and a four-year validation period (2012–2015). The model results indicated satisfactory precision in fitting observed and simulated flow using various acceptable statistical indices. Future projections of climate change were obtained for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The model indicated that the average annual discharge of El Kalb River in the near future (2021–2040) will decrease by around 28–29% under the three RCP scenarios. End-of-century projections (2081–2100) indicated that the flow will decrease by 23%, 28%, and 45% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively.

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