scholarly journals CASH FLOW FORECASTING FOR INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS IN THE PROCESS OF CAPITAL BUDGETING DURING THE COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biljana Pejović ◽  
◽  
Dragana Trifunović ◽  
Aleksandra Živaljević ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Cost Reduction ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
International Projects ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

By predicting cash flows in the capital budgeting procedure, the profitability of an investment at the international level is determined in advance. Although investing globally provides greater opportunities for earnings, cost reduction and business diversification, all risks posed by international business must be considered when choosing a discount rate. In addition to the risks inherent in cross-border business such as exchange rate risk, country risk, the risks caused by the pandemic crisis, which relate primarily to measures taken by states to protect the population by introducing quarantine, restricting the flow of people, goods and capital, as well as activities that are endangered by a pandemic, must be considered too. If all the risks that determine the discount rate are well assessed, the cash flow forecast will be more accurate.

scholarly journals THE SYSTEM OF FORMATION AND EVALUATION OF THE INFORMATION OF CASH FLOWS

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Mackevičius ◽  
Kastytis Senkus
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Time Out ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Statement ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
Principal Elements

A very urgent problem of formation of cash flows in conditions of the competitive market is considered in the present article. Cash flows are defined as the inflows and outflows of cash and cash equivalents, created within a certain period of time out of the operating, financial, investment and extraordinary activities of the company. Examples of cash flows out of the operating, financial and investment activities of the company are adduced. The system of formation and evaluation of the information about cash flows is created. Its principal elements are as follows: cash flow accounting, classification of cash flows, issuing of the cash flow statement, control and analysis of cash flows, cash flow forecasting. The methods of analysis of cash flows are created, i.e. the horizontal analysis of the cash flow statement; the vertical analysis of the cash flow statement; the analysis of financial ratios of the cash flow statement; preparation of the cash flow forecast. Practical application of the system of formation and evaluation of the information about cash flows would help the company managers to take various management decisions on evaluation of the company's financial condition and its activity results better, quicker and more precisely.

An Analysis of the Sources of Value Loss Following Financial Restatements

2021 ◽  
pp. 0148558X2198991
Author(s):  
Philip K. Hong ◽  
Jaywon Lee ◽  
Sang-Hyun Park ◽  
Sukesh Patro
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Fraud ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Flow Component ◽  
Financial Restatements ◽  
Value Loss

We decompose the total value loss around firms’ announcements of financial restatements into components arising from investors’ revisions in cash flows and discount rates. First, relative to population benchmarks, restatements represent circumstances in which the cash flow component becomes more important in explaining valuations. While we find significant contributions from both sources, with the cash flow component explaining more than 33% of the variation in stock returns surrounding restatement announcements, this component explains only 13% to 22% in comparable non-restating firms. When restatements are caused by underlying financial fraud, the discount rate impact becomes more important, explaining about 88% of return variation. On the contrary, the cash flow impact is relatively larger for firms with higher earnings persistence or restatements associated with errors. Our decomposition of the value loss helps explain returns in the post-announcement period. Firms with a higher relative discount rate impact experience a significant downward stock price drift after the initial announcement-related price decline. For firms with a higher relative cash flow impact, the evidence suggests the initial impact of the restatement announcement is more complete with no subsequent drift pattern. Our findings close gaps in the evidence on financial restatements and extend the literature on the drivers of stock price movements.

Increasing the Efficiency of Industrial Enterprise Investment Projects through Cash Flow Management

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (2) ◽  
pp. 90-106
Author(s):  
Denis Shageev
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Cash Flow Management ◽  
Actual Size

Objective and subjective factors of influence on the nominal and actual size of a cash flow of the project in the form of the scheme are opened. The analysis of method of calculation of a discount rate and award for risk is made. On analysis results, in article it was offered to exclude an indicator of an award for risk from a formula of calculation of a discount rate and to research it separately as the certain managed size influencing the nominal, but not actual size of cash flows of the project. It gave the chance to technically reduce value of a discount rate and by that to increase the NPV real value of the project. Designations of negative and positive factors project risks are entered. Availability and an opportunity positive influence of factors risks on the project is proved. The formulas of calculation of the modified cash flow, effect and effective management of cash flows of the project differing on structure, content and entering of the additional positive amendment on risk are offered. It will give the chance to reduce or eliminate negative influence of objective and subjective factors risks, and in certain cases and in addition to raise project NPV. For assessment of levels of effective management of cash flows the verbal scale is offered.

scholarly journals The effects of interest rates on the valuation of highway infrastructure assets

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carles Vergara-Alert
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Effect ◽  
Toll Roads ◽  
Flow Effect ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Highway Infrastructure

The discounted value of cash flows of assets is negatively related to interest rates (i.e., the discount rate effect). However, economic activity is positively related to interest rates and positively related to the cash flows of assets with tariffs that can be adjusted to manage demand such as adjustable-rate toll roads, but uncorrelated to assets that do not bear demand risk such as non-toll roads (i.e., the cash flow effect). This effect arises in some types of assets from: (i) the positive correlation between economic activity and demand for the infrastructure assets; and (ii) the positive correlation between economic activity and inflation. We find that the cash flow effect dominates the discount rate effect for assets with tariffs that can be adjusted to manage demand and, therefore, the value of these assets increases in periods of economic expansion. Nevertheless, the opposite occurs for assets that do not bear demand risk.

scholarly journals Net Operating Working Capital, Capital Budgeting, And Cash Budgets: A Teaching Example

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Turner
Keyword(s):  
Student Satisfaction ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Accrual Accounting ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Present Information ◽  
Budgeting Process

Many introductory finance texts present information on the capital budgeting process, including estimation of project cash flows.  Typically, estimation of project cash flows begins with a calculation of net income.  Getting from net income to cash flows requires accounting for non-cash items such as depreciation.  Also important is the effect of changes in net operating working capital on cash flow.  While students readily understand how to account for depreciation when calculating cash flow, they typically have much more difficulty understanding how and why changes in working capital affect cash flows.  This paper develops a teaching example to show exactly how and why changes in net operating working capital affect cash flows.  The example shows how to derive operating cash flows for a proposed project using the accrual accounting method and then shows a cash budget for the same project.  Finally, the example shows that the discrepancy between the cash flows shown in the cash budget and the operating cash flows can be resolved by accounting for changes in working capital.  A survey of students in an MBA managerial finance course indicates student satisfaction with the teaching example and gives evidence that students prefer the teaching example to explanations of the effect of working capital on project cash flows given in the assigned text.

E-Capital Budgeting

2002 ◽  
pp. 182-197
Author(s):  
Parvez Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
The Internet ◽  
New Era ◽  
Financial Options ◽  
New Information ◽  
Unknown Risk ◽  
The World ◽  
High Discount Rate

Over the last five years, firms with strong presence on the Internet have seen increases in the value of their firms to what some consider obscene levels. The “new era” economy has led to “irrational exuberance” in the stock market. This era of uncertainty has also unleashed numerous valuable opportunities for firms. The world in general and e-commerce ventures in particular are dominated by strategic investments with lots of uncertainty that require huge capital outlays. Moreover, these projects must have the ability to adapt to changing conditions that evolve as new information becomes available. The failure of traditional discounted cash flows (DCF), such as NPV, in valuing e-commerce projects is partially due to meager cash flows relative to required investments and high discount rate due to unknown risk in the projects. This chapter will show how techniques used in valuing financial options can be used to value project or firms under conditions of extreme uncertainty.

Literature Review of Treasury Cash Flow Forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 521-523
Author(s):  
Shi Hua
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Practical Work ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Great Progress ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
Flow Forecast

In this paper, the related literatures of treasury cash flow forecasting in the early stage are reviewed. By reviewing the related literatures, it is found that the treasury cash flow forecasting in China has made great progress, and various forecasting methods have been used in practical work, but there is still room for optimization in treasury cash flow forecasting. Suggestions for optimization are put forward.

The Effects of Financial Statement and Informational Complexity on Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 915-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Hodder ◽  
Patrick E. Hopkins ◽  
David A. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Indirect Approach ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Statement Of Cash Flows ◽  
Mixed Pattern ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

ABSTRACT: We characterize the operating-activities section of the indirect-approach statement of cash flows as backward because it presents reconciling adjustments in a way that is opposite from the intuitively appealing, future-oriented, Conceptual Framework definitions of assets, liabilities, and the accruals process. We propose that the reversed-accruals orientation required in the currently mandated indirect-approach statement of cash flows is unnecessarily complex, causing information-processing problems that result in increased cash flow forecast error and dispersion. We also predict that the mixed pattern (i.e., +/−, −/+) of operating cash flows and operating accruals reported by most companies impedes investors’ ability to learn the time-series properties of cash flows and accruals. We conduct a carefully controlled experiment and find that (1) cash flow forecasts have lower forecast error and dispersion when the indirect-approach statement of cash flows starts with operating cash flows and adds changes in accruals to arrive at net income and (2) cash flow forecasts have lower forecast error and dispersion when the cash flows and accruals are of the same sign (i.e., +/+, −/−); with the sign-based difference attenuated in the forward-oriented statement of cash flows. We also conduct a quasi-experiment to test our mixed-sign versus same-sign hypotheses using archival samples of publicly available I/B/E/S and Value Line cash flow forecasts. We find that the passively observed samples of cash flow forecasts exhibit a similar pattern of mixed-sign versus same-sign forecast error as documented in our experiment.

scholarly journals OPERATING CASH FLOW ON EARNINGS MANAGEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIAN BANKS

2020 ◽  
pp. 53-63
Author(s):  
Benjamin Osisioma ◽  
Pius Okoye ◽  
Raymond Ezejiofor ◽  
Janefrances Okoye
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Post Facto ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
Operating Capability

This study assesses the effect of operating cash flow on earnings management of Nigerian Banks. The study adopted Ex post Facto research design. The study used sample of fifteen (15) Nigerian banks from 2010 to 2019. Data for the study was collected from annual reports and accounts of the banks. Regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis with the aid of E-view 9.0. Based on this, the study revealed that operating activities are not statistically significant and have a negative effect on total accruals earnings of Nigerian banks. The study concludes that the importance of risk management activities is aimed at reducing future cash flow. Based on this, the researcher recommended among others that managers should be more likely to opportunistically boost operating cash flows if the firm has a cash flow forecast like engaging in principal financing source for maintaining the operating capability of the entity in terms of repaying loan and making new investment.

scholarly journals To Iterate Or Not To Iterate? Using The WACC In Equity Valuation

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Larkin
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Iterative Procedure ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Equity Value ◽  
Current Value

The textbook discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method involves estimating a target debt ratio for the firm, discounting firm cash flows at the WACC to estimate firm value, then subtracting the current value of debt to get equity value. This method gives the correct equity value in situations in which the firm will move toward the target debt ratio after the transaction is complete, such as takeovers and capital budgeting projects. The textbook method does not work well for estimating equity value in passive investments in which leverage is unlikely to change as a result of the potential transaction. Estimating equity value in passive investments when leverage is unlikely to change requires a simple iterative procedure to correct for circularity, which is demonstrated here. This situation sows confusion among students and practitioners. Finance scholars and textbook authors are aware of the situation but the author has never seen it clearly explained in prior textbooks or articles.

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