scholarly journals Method of forecasting assessment of the maximum runoff characteristics of the Dnipro Basin's rivers in spring season

2018 ◽  
pp. 80-99
Author(s):  
Zh. R. Shakirzanova ◽  
V. М. Boyko ◽  
M. V. Goptsiy ◽  
Е. І. Todorova ◽  
А. A. Dokus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Water Flow ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Flood Characteristics

Introduction. In Ukraine, under the conditions of current climate variability, the water content of the rivers, including the period of spring flood, changes. Against the background of the general tendency of reduction of the runoff characteristics of the spring flood of the rivers in Ukraine, formation of catastrophic floods on rivers leading to flooding of territories and destruction of economic objects should not be ruled out. The research is aimed at solving an important scientific-applied and socio-economic problem of improving the water management in the basin of the country's large waterway, the Dnipro River, through probabilistic assessments of hydrological threats which include spring flood and its consequences – floods of various magnitudes. Therefore it is necessary to create a unified universal mathematical model for formation, calculation and long-term forecasting of water flood characteristics, and to implement it for the Dnipro Basin's rivers (including small ones which usually are not recorded in the data of runoff observations), taking into account the climate changes of the winter-spring period. The purpose consists in prognostic assessment of the hydrological regime characteristics of the Dnipro Basin's rivers during the most full-flowing phase of their water regime, the spring flood, for the purpose of spatial monitoring of the state of water objects during this period. The research offers the method of territorial long-term forecasts of the spring floods characteristics which is based on the theory of channel isochrones and consideration of the complex of runoff formation hydrometeorological factors with preliminary determination of the type of water content of spring flood. The spatial representation of forecast variables in cartographic form will allow estimation of the size of the water flood and its long-term repeatability throughout the entire basin and preparation of forecasts for separate rivers, regardless of the degree of their hydrological exploration. Results. As a result of application of the complex forecasting method of territorial long-term forecasts of the spring flood characteristics of the rivers (through the example of the Dnipro Basin within Ukrainian borders), typification of floods based on their water content was performed using a discriminant function apparatus which takes into account the probable combination of hydrometeorological factors of spring floods. In terms of regional dependencies forecast of runoff depths and maximum water flow of floods was conducted and probability of their occurrence in the long-term period was determined. Assessment of the forecast methodology provided satisfactory results, and, under the conditions of long-term tendency to decrease runoff depths and maximum water flow during the spring flood of the Dnipro Basin's rivers, it is proposed to specify the average long-term values of these variables which are basic ones when applying the method of territorial long-term forecasts of the maximum spring runoff of rivers. A spatial preliminary estimation of the size of spring floods within the Dnipro River Basin was also fulfilled. The authors completed implementation of the method of territorial long-term forecasts of spring flood characteristics using the data of the water flood of 2017-2018. Conclusion. In general, taking into account the obtained criteria of accuracy, the method can be considered effective and recommended for release of annual long-term forecasts of the rivers' spring flood characteristics at in operational units delivering forecasting hydrological services to respective consumers. Through the example of the spring flood of 2017-2018 the possibility of forecasting assessment of the hydrological regime characteristics of the Dnipro Basin's rivers was shown which allows determining the zones of increased river runoff over the spring period and increased threat of possible flooding of surrounding areas, especially when the floods with a rare probability of excess occur.

scholarly journals RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF WATERNESS CHANGE IN THE DON RIVER

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 84-87
Author(s):  
G.Kh. Ismaiylov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Muraschenkova ◽  
I.G. Ismaiylova
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Water Medium ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Integral Curves ◽  
Don River ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

Water resources are one of the most important problems of our time. Population growth, industrial and agricultural development all over the world entail an ever-increasing demand for clean fresh water. These circumstances induce hydrologists to actively and thoroughly study the problem of studying water resources, changing their quantitative and qualitative characteristics in time and space, and the peculiarities of changes in the water regime of river runoff under conditions of climatic changes. In this work, we performed a retrospective analysis and assessment of changes in the water content of the Upper Don basin over a long 126-year period of hydrometric observational data (1881/1882–2006/2007). To study the change in the water content of the Upper Don River, we used the difference integral curves of the annual and seasonal (spring flood, summerautumn and winter low-water periods) runoff. Regularities of long-term cyclical fluctuations in the water content of the annual and seasonal runoff of the Upper Don are obtained. A retrospective analysis of long-term data of hydrometric observations made it possible to distinguish long phases of high-water, medium-water-content and low-water years on the differential integral curves of river runoff. Each phase, which is long in terms of water content, contains groups of years of shorter duration, for example, 2–3-year and 4–5-year phases of increased and decreased water content in a river. The analysis of the differential integral curves of the annual and seasonal runoff made it possible to establish that the long-term fluctuations in the annual runoff of the Upper Don are rhythmic, in contrast to the runoff of the spring flood, summer-autumn and winter low-water periods, which are characterized by a monotonic regime.

scholarly journals Assessment of Hadzhibeysky estuary and forecasting possible water level in it

2017 ◽  
pp. 156-163
Author(s):  
Zh.R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

Introduction. Modern hydrology of the Hadzhibeysky estuary is due to natural and anthropogenic factors and characterized by their intense economic use. Since the beginning of the last century, there was an intense discharge of municipal waters from Odessa (biological treatment plant "North"). This led to a significant increase in the levels of water in the estuary, which threatened to destroy the dam that separates the estuary from the sea, with the possible flooding of residential areas and enterprises of the Peresip area, as well as the road, on the dam, especially in disastrously high water years. Purpose. The purpose problems – are estimation of filling the closed estuaries-reservoirs in north-west area of the Black sea and long–term forecasting of their condition during the spring period of year. The first task – an analysis of conditions of the Hadzhibeysky estuary in the presence of an exceptional spring flood and rain floods of exceedance probability (P = 1%). The second task – is to develop a methodology for the long-term forecasting of filling of the Hadzhibeysky estuary during the spring flood, which is the most abundant phase in the hydrological regime into the territory. Results. For the first time, the possibility of assessing the filling degree surface water from melting snow and rainfall when the estimated probability of exceeding P=1% in the closed estuaries-reservoirs of the Black Sea areas. The method of the long-term forecast of surface water during the spring period for the closed estuaries was substantiated. Typification of spring floods in accordance with their water content according to the model – discriminant function DF, which takes account of the complex of factors having an influence upon conditions of spring flood formation. Setting the probability of occurrence of the forecasting flow layers in the long-term period are implemented. Conclusion. This method allows risk assessment for sustainable land – and water use planning within the Black Sea estuaries. The method of the long-term forecast was realized by the author in operational work at the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas.

scholarly journals Changes in the Nature of Long-Term Fluctuations of Water Flow in the Subarctic Region of Yakutia: A Global Warming Perspective

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shpakova ◽  
Kusatov ◽  
Mustafin ◽  
Trifonov
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Water Flow ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Water Flow Rate ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Subarctic Region ◽  
Discharge Fluctuations

Global warming has begun to affect Yakutia, an area recognized as the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere. Previous research has indicated that the effects of global warming will be long-term. When modeling oncoming climatic changes, researchers often forecast the related water flow changes in various water bodies as well. However, these evaluations frequently differ from the actual water flow data. Thus, the current study identifies and assesses the trends in long-term flow fluctuations in the current context of global warming. This is particularly relevant in the subarctic region of Yakutia, because the local climate is not significantly influenced by anthropogenic factors. The region has an essentially uniform climate, and the river basins within the subarctic zone flow in the same direction. Thus, the study parameters can be adequately compared. Analysis of changes in the water regimen parameters of the rivers in this region is of particular importance. This study demonstrates that the changes in the long-term river regimen in the region, within approximately equivalent climate zones, have been highly and locally variable indifferent areas and time periods. However, we were unable to detect any specific consistency in these changes. The water content of almost all rivers in Yakutia has increased in the last 30 years (approximately), thus confirming general assumptions based on predictive models of climate changes; however, in most cases, such changes were the result of reaching the high-water stage of established long-term cycles. The nature of long-term fluctuations in the water flow of rivers did not change in about half of the Yakutia rivers. One water body showed a further decrease in the water content from the norm, both in terms of duration and water flow rate. Meanwhile, specific water bodies exhibited extreme long-term fluctuations, which are predicted to be a reaction to global warming. Prior to the onset of significant warming in the region, the trends of long-term water discharge fluctuations were stationary. Then, the trends of certain rivers became non-stationary due to the reasons indicated above. On their own, quantitative characteristics are insufficient to evaluate actual changes in water regimens. Moreover, evaluations obtained in the absence of a trend analysis of specific long-term discharge fluctuations, which can only be performed via graphic visualization, are most likely to be inaccurate.

METHOD OF SPATIAL PREDICTION THE DATES OF STARTING AND PASSING THE MAXIMUM WATER DISCHARGE OF SPRING FLOODS

2019 ◽  
pp. 8-22
Author(s):  
A.A. Dokus ◽  
Zh.R. Shakirzanova ◽  
N.N. Shvets
Keyword(s):  
Water Discharge ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Prognostic Assessment ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Introduction. The problem of long-term and prognostic assessment of the terms of spring floods on rivers is relevant in hydrological investigations. Due to climate warming, the flood tides shifted to early dates or the beginning of the calendar year. The purpose is to analyze the long-term passage of spring floods and to carry out their spatial mapping forecasting on the Dnieper (within Ukraine). Methods. Investigation of the dynamics of long-term changes in the timing of spring floods and the use of the forecast method based on the meteorological forecast of ten-day air temperature in the winter-spring season in the Dnieper basin. Results. The method of forecasting the dates of starting and passing the maximum water discharge (levels) is based on the regional equations of the forecast scheme and allows to make a preliminary estimation of flood terms each year, regardless of the availability of meteorological observations. Assessment of the forecasting methodology allows to recommend it as a consultation, and the earliness of forecast varies depending on the geographical location of the catchments and the current weather conditions of a particular spring. Conclusion. The methodology was implemented on the example of spring floods 2017-2018. The overall forecasts were satisfactory, but the quality of the forecasts was affected by the non-simultaneous terms of the spring flood formation in the Dnieper basin. The prognostic probabilities of the dates of spring flood allow characterizing the frequency of their occurrence over many years. On the example of the 2017-2018 spring flood, the rivers of the Dnieper basin found that, in a changing climate, floods can be shifted to earlier and later ones.

scholarly journals The Change of the Water Regime of the Volga River in the Area of the Protected Island Bakhilovsky

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Water Regime ◽  
High Water ◽  
Ecological State ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Volga River ◽  
High Water Period ◽  
Average Water ◽  
Annual Water

The ecological state of the protected Islands Seredysh and Shalyga (now Bakhilovsky island) depends on the water content and flow of the Volga River. We have analyzed the long-term changes in the water flow of the Volga River for the period 1958-2017 in the alignment Zhiguli dam, located 12 km upstream from the island. According to the average annual water consumption, there are three periods that differ from each other in water content: low-water period (1958–1976), high-water period (1977–1997) and the period of average water content (1998–2017), with extremely low-water (1967, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1996) and extremely high-water (1966, 1979, 1981, 1990, 1991, 1994) years. In highwater years, during the passage of the spring flood, the island is almost completely flooded, and in low-water years, during the summer low water, the area of the island increases and changes its configuration.

scholarly journals THE LOWER AMUR RIVER HYDROLOGICAL REGIME AND RELATIONS BETWEEN THE SUMMER-AUTUMN RUNOFF AND CIRCULATION INDICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 98-112
Author(s):  
Irina A. Lisina ◽  
◽  
Lubov N. Vasilevskaya ◽  
Denis N. Vasilevsky ◽  
Ekaterina N. Podverbnaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Indices ◽  
Circulation Indices ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Flood Flow

Long-term forecasting of flood flow in the lower reaches of the Amur is an urgent task of modern hydrometeorology serving the needs of economic sectors. The article analyzes the dependences between the runoff volumes in three sections of the Lower Amur and the amount of precipitation (at 10 representative weather stations for the period 1950−2015) as well as atmospheric circulation indices (9 climatic and 8 regional) at the 95% significance level. Considerable attention is paid to the search for predictors of the flood runoff formation (summer-autumn period). For this, the hydrological regime and flow dynamics in the sections of the lower part of the Amur basin (from 1897 to 2018) are considered. Based on the correlation matrices, the effect of atmospheric circulation and precipitation on the river runoff is analyzed. An assessment of the long-term dynamics of runoff volumes showed a decrease in both annual water content and water content in the warm period of the year against the background of a negative trend of precipitation. For regional indices (compared with climatic ones), the largest number of significant asynchronous relationships between the runoff volume and the state of atmospheric circulation was obtained with a lead time of 1 to 5 months. The results of the study will be further used to develop equations for long-term forecasting of flood flow.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE SPRING FLOOD AND SUMMER HIGH WATER IN 2017 ON THE LOWER VOLGA

2017 ◽  
pp. 61-66
Author(s):  
Petr Ivanovich Bukharitsin ◽  
Anjelica Yurevna Ovcharova
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
High Water ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Water Reservoirs ◽  
Lower Volga ◽  
Anthropogenic Processes ◽  
Using Data

The article presents the analysis of parameters of the Lower Volga hydrological regime in terms of the regulated runoff, which was carried out using data of long-term observations. There have been considered characteristics of the spring flood and summer high water in 2017. It is stated that the current situation in the Lower Volga is the result of natural and anthropogenic processes, which demands the continuous monitoring operation of the Volga-Kama series of water reservoirs as an indivisible hydrogenic system.

scholarly journals Application of the operator model of runoff formation to determine the average long-term values of maximum water discharge of spring flood in the Pivdenny Buh basin

2019 ◽  
pp. 49-63
Author(s):  
A. A. Dokus ◽  
V. A. Ovcharuk ◽  
Zh. R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Initial Data ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Operator Model ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Maximum Water

In the context of Ukraine's integration into the European Union and implementation of the main provisions of Directive 2007/60/EC which implies assessment of potential hydrological risks, long-term factors of their formation, in particular the effects of climate change and the trend of river water regime changes should be taken into consideration. With this in mind, given the presence of both current long-term tendencies to reduction of runoff layers (volumes) and maximum discharge of water of spring flood across the Ukrainian rivers there is an important task to identify, using the modern initial data, both the average long-term values of these characteristics and different probability of their exceedance probability. For the first time, the authors of the study implemented an operator model of runoff formation to determine the average long-term values of maximum water discharge of spring flood in the basin of the Pivdenny Buh using meteorological characteristics (snowpack and precipitation) and runoff coefficients as basic parameters. The model was applied to determine the maximum runoff modules of spring floods for the rivers with a wide range of catchment areas affected by different physical and geographical conditions within the Pivdenny Buh Basin. Application of the operator model allowed the authors of the article to calculate and summarize all input parameters of the calculation model, including those obtained from observational data (snowpack, precipitation) and those that can't be measured by the hydrometeorological network (runoff coefficient, temporal irregularity coefficient and duration of surface inflow of snowmelt and rain water, transformational function of the flood waves layering under the influence of channel lag, coefficient of channel and floodplain regulation) for the rivers of the Pivdenny Buh Basin. The verifying calculation related to determination of the average long-term values of the maximum modules of spring flood runoff using  the operator model showed satisfactory concordance with the initial data and this allowed recommending it for practical application for the rivers of the Pivdenny Buh Basin, including those that haven't been studied from the hydrological perspective.

scholarly journals The discounting water influence estimation on the results of the annual concentration calculation and runoff volume of the Pskem river biogenous substances

2021 ◽  
Vol 264 ◽  
pp. 03062
Author(s):  
Alisher Fatxulloyev ◽  
Jasurbek Hamroqulov ◽  
Aziza Gafarova
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Water Flow ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Calculation Methods ◽  
Flow Rates ◽  
Water Influence ◽  
Runoff Volume ◽  
Measured Water

This article presents scientific research methods for assessing the average annual concentration of pollutants along the Pskem river. The analysis of existing calculation methods and assessed their errors are given. Extreme errors and errors in determining the average long-term concentration due to the lack of water content are analyzed. Recommendations to reduce possible errors due to neglect of water content in the absence of measured water flow rates are given.

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