METHOD OF SPATIAL PREDICTION THE DATES OF STARTING AND PASSING THE MAXIMUM WATER DISCHARGE OF SPRING FLOODS

2019 ◽  
pp. 8-22
Author(s):  
A.A. Dokus ◽  
Zh.R. Shakirzanova ◽  
N.N. Shvets
Keyword(s):  
Water Discharge ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Prognostic Assessment ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Introduction. The problem of long-term and prognostic assessment of the terms of spring floods on rivers is relevant in hydrological investigations. Due to climate warming, the flood tides shifted to early dates or the beginning of the calendar year. The purpose is to analyze the long-term passage of spring floods and to carry out their spatial mapping forecasting on the Dnieper (within Ukraine). Methods. Investigation of the dynamics of long-term changes in the timing of spring floods and the use of the forecast method based on the meteorological forecast of ten-day air temperature in the winter-spring season in the Dnieper basin. Results. The method of forecasting the dates of starting and passing the maximum water discharge (levels) is based on the regional equations of the forecast scheme and allows to make a preliminary estimation of flood terms each year, regardless of the availability of meteorological observations. Assessment of the forecasting methodology allows to recommend it as a consultation, and the earliness of forecast varies depending on the geographical location of the catchments and the current weather conditions of a particular spring. Conclusion. The methodology was implemented on the example of spring floods 2017-2018. The overall forecasts were satisfactory, but the quality of the forecasts was affected by the non-simultaneous terms of the spring flood formation in the Dnieper basin. The prognostic probabilities of the dates of spring flood allow characterizing the frequency of their occurrence over many years. On the example of the 2017-2018 spring flood, the rivers of the Dnieper basin found that, in a changing climate, floods can be shifted to earlier and later ones.

scholarly journals Application of the operator model of runoff formation to determine the average long-term values of maximum water discharge of spring flood in the Pivdenny Buh basin

2019 ◽  
pp. 49-63
Author(s):  
A. A. Dokus ◽  
V. A. Ovcharuk ◽  
Zh. R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Initial Data ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Operator Model ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Maximum Water

In the context of Ukraine's integration into the European Union and implementation of the main provisions of Directive 2007/60/EC which implies assessment of potential hydrological risks, long-term factors of their formation, in particular the effects of climate change and the trend of river water regime changes should be taken into consideration. With this in mind, given the presence of both current long-term tendencies to reduction of runoff layers (volumes) and maximum discharge of water of spring flood across the Ukrainian rivers there is an important task to identify, using the modern initial data, both the average long-term values of these characteristics and different probability of their exceedance probability. For the first time, the authors of the study implemented an operator model of runoff formation to determine the average long-term values of maximum water discharge of spring flood in the basin of the Pivdenny Buh using meteorological characteristics (snowpack and precipitation) and runoff coefficients as basic parameters. The model was applied to determine the maximum runoff modules of spring floods for the rivers with a wide range of catchment areas affected by different physical and geographical conditions within the Pivdenny Buh Basin. Application of the operator model allowed the authors of the article to calculate and summarize all input parameters of the calculation model, including those obtained from observational data (snowpack, precipitation) and those that can't be measured by the hydrometeorological network (runoff coefficient, temporal irregularity coefficient and duration of surface inflow of snowmelt and rain water, transformational function of the flood waves layering under the influence of channel lag, coefficient of channel and floodplain regulation) for the rivers of the Pivdenny Buh Basin. The verifying calculation related to determination of the average long-term values of the maximum modules of spring flood runoff using  the operator model showed satisfactory concordance with the initial data and this allowed recommending it for practical application for the rivers of the Pivdenny Buh Basin, including those that haven't been studied from the hydrological perspective.

scholarly journals Influence of long-term fertilization on yield and quality of spring triticale grain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hryhorii Hospodarenko ◽  
◽  
Vitalii Liubych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Protein Content ◽  
Mineral Fertilizer ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Triticum Aestivum L ◽  
Spring Triticale ◽  
National University ◽  
Fertilizer System

Triticale (×Triticosecale Wittmack) is a promising cereal crop that has a number of economically valuable properties that are absent in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The research was conducted at Uman National University of Horticulture (Ukraine) in a long-term stationary experiment, founded in 1964. The aim of the work was to study the influence of long-term application of different fertilizer systems (mineral, organic and organo-mineral) on the yield and grain quality of spring triticale. It has been established that in the conditions of high air temperature and soil moisture deficit, mineral and organo-mineral fertilizer systems have an advantage. In sufficient wet conditions, all studied fertilizer systems are highly efficient. Spring triticale (Kharkiv Hlibodar variety) has a high reaction to fertilizers, as grain yield increases from 6.3–6.6 to 9.0–9.5 t ha-1 (р≤0.05). Mineral and organo-mineral fertilizer systems have the greatest effect on protein content. In conditions of sufficient moisture, all levels of mineral and organo-mineral fertilizer systems significantly increase the protein content in spring triticale grain. In arid conditions, saturation of crop rotation area with N90P90K90 (M2), N135P135K135 (M3) and Manure 9 t +N46P68K36 (OM2), Manure 13.5 t + N69P102K54 (OM3) is preferred. It should be noted that spring triticale is quite reactive with fertilizers, as the protein content increases from 13.2–14.0 to 15.2–16.0% (р≤0.05) depending on the fertilizer system. The high influence of fertilizer system and year factors on yield and protein content in triticale grain has been established. It should be noted that spring triticale grain yield varies most from the weather conditions of the growing season.

The Combined Effect of Nitrogen Treatment and Weather Conditions on Wheat Protein-Starch Interaction and Dough Quality

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1232
Author(s):  
Indrek Keres ◽  
Maarika Alaru ◽  
Reine Koppel ◽  
Illimar Altosaar ◽  
Tiina Tosens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Organic N ◽  
Positive Interactions ◽  
Mineral N ◽  
Dough Quality ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Baltic

The objective of this field crop study was to compare the effect of organic (cattle manure, off-season cover crop) and mineral N (NH4NO3; 0, 50, 100° 150 kg N ha−1) fertilizers on (i) gluten-starch interaction, and (ii) rheological properties of winter wheat dough. Data were collected from the long-term field experiment located in the Baltic Sea region (58°22’ N, 26°40’ E) in years 2013–2017. The amount of minuppueral N 150 kg ha–1 applied in two parts before flowering ensured higher gluten content (31 ± 3.3%) and dough quality (81 ± 7.4 mm) due to more positive interactions between gluten proteins and starch granules. The quality of dough was more variable in organic treatments (ranged up to 33%) because the availability of organic N was more variable and sensitivity to the weather conditions was higher. The mean variability of different dough properties over trial years under organic treatments was 1.4–2.0 times higher than in the treatment with 150 kg N ha−1.

scholarly journals Characterization and diversity of macroinvertebrates of the Bouhamdane Stream (northeast of Algeria)

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Abdelhakim Rouibi ◽  
Affef Baaloudj ◽  
Faycal Chahrour ◽  
Ahmed Kerfouf ◽  
Hadia Rizi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physicochemical Parameters ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
High Water ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Quality Of Water ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Eastern Algeria

Freshwaters are among the most threatened ecosystems, particularly in North Africa where urbanization and climate change are exerting an important pressure on aquatic fauna. Long-term investigation of macroinvertebrates is one of the best ways of tracking and understanding the influence of environmental and anthropogenic pressures on community dynamics. In this study, we focus on determining the community structure and diversity of benthic macroinvertebrates as well as the state of aquatic physicochemical parameters in the Bouhamdane Stream, near the outlet of Bouhamdane dam, Seybouse watershed, north-eastern Algeria. We carried out a bi-monthly sampling of macroinvertebrates and nine water physicochemical parameters from September 2017 to July 2018 at three sites. Results show that the collected macroinvertebrates (6756 individuals) belong to 15 families and 12 orders. The abundance of the macrofauna consisted of 88.19% crustaceans, 7.74% insects, 3.7% molluscs and 0.16% annelids. Physicochemical analyzes (depth, turbidity, pH, dissolved O2, temperature, salinity, and conductivity) showed variability among sites. The families of Gammaridae and Baetidae were the most frequent and the most abundant on all the stations. The results indicate that aquatic macroinvertebrates constitute good indicators of the biological quality of water. This study shows that even with the occurrence of regular dam water discharge, the macroinvertebrate community is still able to persist either through adaptation to high water velocity or high colonization rate.

scholarly journals Method of forecasting assessment of the maximum runoff characteristics of the Dnipro Basin's rivers in spring season

2018 ◽  
pp. 80-99
Author(s):  
Zh. R. Shakirzanova ◽  
V. М. Boyko ◽  
M. V. Goptsiy ◽  
Е. І. Todorova ◽  
А. A. Dokus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Water Flow ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Flood Characteristics

Introduction. In Ukraine, under the conditions of current climate variability, the water content of the rivers, including the period of spring flood, changes. Against the background of the general tendency of reduction of the runoff characteristics of the spring flood of the rivers in Ukraine, formation of catastrophic floods on rivers leading to flooding of territories and destruction of economic objects should not be ruled out. The research is aimed at solving an important scientific-applied and socio-economic problem of improving the water management in the basin of the country's large waterway, the Dnipro River, through probabilistic assessments of hydrological threats which include spring flood and its consequences – floods of various magnitudes. Therefore it is necessary to create a unified universal mathematical model for formation, calculation and long-term forecasting of water flood characteristics, and to implement it for the Dnipro Basin's rivers (including small ones which usually are not recorded in the data of runoff observations), taking into account the climate changes of the winter-spring period. The purpose consists in prognostic assessment of the hydrological regime characteristics of the Dnipro Basin's rivers during the most full-flowing phase of their water regime, the spring flood, for the purpose of spatial monitoring of the state of water objects during this period. The research offers the method of territorial long-term forecasts of the spring floods characteristics which is based on the theory of channel isochrones and consideration of the complex of runoff formation hydrometeorological factors with preliminary determination of the type of water content of spring flood. The spatial representation of forecast variables in cartographic form will allow estimation of the size of the water flood and its long-term repeatability throughout the entire basin and preparation of forecasts for separate rivers, regardless of the degree of their hydrological exploration. Results. As a result of application of the complex forecasting method of territorial long-term forecasts of the spring flood characteristics of the rivers (through the example of the Dnipro Basin within Ukrainian borders), typification of floods based on their water content was performed using a discriminant function apparatus which takes into account the probable combination of hydrometeorological factors of spring floods. In terms of regional dependencies forecast of runoff depths and maximum water flow of floods was conducted and probability of their occurrence in the long-term period was determined. Assessment of the forecast methodology provided satisfactory results, and, under the conditions of long-term tendency to decrease runoff depths and maximum water flow during the spring flood of the Dnipro Basin's rivers, it is proposed to specify the average long-term values of these variables which are basic ones when applying the method of territorial long-term forecasts of the maximum spring runoff of rivers. A spatial preliminary estimation of the size of spring floods within the Dnipro River Basin was also fulfilled. The authors completed implementation of the method of territorial long-term forecasts of spring flood characteristics using the data of the water flood of 2017-2018. Conclusion. In general, taking into account the obtained criteria of accuracy, the method can be considered effective and recommended for release of annual long-term forecasts of the rivers' spring flood characteristics at in operational units delivering forecasting hydrological services to respective consumers. Through the example of the spring flood of 2017-2018 the possibility of forecasting assessment of the hydrological regime characteristics of the Dnipro Basin's rivers was shown which allows determining the zones of increased river runoff over the spring period and increased threat of possible flooding of surrounding areas, especially when the floods with a rare probability of excess occur.

scholarly journals HARMFULNESS OF MYCOSISS ON CULTURE OF GARLIC WINTER-ANNUAL IN THE CONDITIONS OF MOSCOW REGION

2018 ◽  
pp. 84-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Seredin ◽  
L. I. Gerasimova ◽  
E. G. Kozar ◽  
I. A. Engalycheva ◽  
E. V. Baranova
Keyword(s):  
Storage Time ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Moscow Region ◽  
Fusarium Spp ◽  
Mushroom Diseases ◽  
Botrytis Allii ◽  
Winter Annual

One of stressful factors the reducing harvest and quality of bulbs of garlic winter (Allium sativum L.) defeat is diseases of various etiology. Studying of influence of factors of the external environment and stability of a genotype on prevalence of diseases on landings of garlic winter and degree of their injuriousness in the conditions of the Moscow region was the purpose of researches; assessment of collection and selection samples of garlic winter and identification among them steady against the most economically significant diseases. Object of researches were grades and collection samples of garlic of the Federal Scientific Vegetable Center, winter from collections, and other selection institutions. Field experiments and assessment were carried out on a natural infectious background for a number of years. It is as a result established that in the conditions of the Moscow region during vegetation of a plant of garlic winter mainly are surprised mushroom diseases (mycoses) among which the dominating position is taken by fusariosis (micromycetes of the sort Fusarium spp). Defeat of garlic fusariosis is shown annually and with different intensity, depending on weather conditions. The analysis of literature and results of our researches show that number and a ratio of types of Fusarium spp. in a pathogenic complex changes in last years. The types which are earlier not noted on the culture of garlic in the Moscow region (since 2009 – F. avenacium, F. proliferatum, F. subglutinans and F. semitectum are registered; since 2017 – F. gibbosum and F. nivale). In a complex with highly aggressive types of F. solani and F. oxysporum they enhance injuriousness of fuzariosis withering and rots. Mushrooms of the sort Alternaria and other micromycetes of the sorts Stemfillium, Pythium, Embilisia, Verticillum, Cladosporium in the conditions of the Moscow region meet mainly in a complex Fusarium. Gray rot (the activator – Botrytis allii L.) it is more often shown in storage time and transportations of bulbs of garlic. These micromycetes enhance injuriousness of fusariosis and increase losses of a harvest of garlic winter, especially, in the conditions of sharp fluctuations of average daily temperatures and humidity of the soil during the different periods of vegetation. Results of long-term assessment are given in article, grades and perspective collection samples of garlic winter the steadiest against defeat with diseases in the conditions of the changing climate of a zone of Non-Black Earth Region are allocated.

scholarly journals Jens Esmark's Christiania (Oslo) meteorological observations 1816–1838: the first long-term continuous temperature record from the Norwegian capital homogenized and analysed

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 2087-2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geir Hestmark ◽  
Øyvind Nordli
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Early Afternoon ◽  
Late Evening ◽  
Slow Rise ◽  
Complete Set ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Abstract. In 2010 we rediscovered the complete set of meteorological observation protocols made by Jens Esmark (1762–1839) during his years of residence in the Norwegian capital of Oslo (then Christiania). From 1 January 1816 to 25 January 1839, Esmark at his house in Øvre Voldgate in the morning, early afternoon and late evening recorded air temperature with state-of-the-art thermometers. He also noted air pressure, cloud cover, precipitation and wind directions, and experimented with rain gauges and hygrometers. From 1818 to the end of 1838 he twice a month provided weather tables to the official newspaper Den Norske Rigstidende, and thus acquired a semi-official status as the first Norwegian state meteorologist. This paper evaluates the quality of Esmark's temperature observations and presents new metadata, new homogenization and analysis of monthly means. Three significant shifts in the measurement series were detected, and suitable corrections are proposed. The air temperature in Oslo during this period is shown to exhibit a slow rise from 1816 towards 1825, followed by a slighter fall again towards 1838.

scholarly journals Jens Esmark's Christiania (Oslo) meteorological observations 1816–1838: The first long term continuous temperature record from the Norwegian capital homogenized and analysed

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geir Hestmark ◽  
Øyvind Nordli
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Early Afternoon ◽  
Late Evening ◽  
Slow Rise ◽  
Complete Set ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Abstract. In 2010 we rediscovered the complete set of meteorological observation protocols made by professor Jens Esmark (1762–1839) during his years of residence in the Norwegian capital of Oslo (then Christiania). From 1 January 1816 to 25 January 1839 Esmark at his house in Øvre Voldgate in the morning, early afternoon and late evening recorded air temperature with state of the art thermometers. He also noted air pressure, cloud cover, precipitation and wind directions, and experimented with rain gauges and hygrometers. From 1818 to the end of 1838 he twice a month provided weather tables to the official newspaper Den norske Rigstidende, and thus acquired a semi-official status as the first Norwegian state meteorologist. This paper evaluates the quality of Esmark's observations, presents new metadata, new homogenization and analysis. The air temperature in Oslo during this period is shown to exhibit a slow rise from 1816 towards 1825, followed by a slighter fall again towards 1838.

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