scholarly journals Prediction of the Population at Risk of Atherothrombotic Disease: A Three Step Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-12
Author(s):  
William E. Feeman

The mainstay of the prevention of atherothrombotic disease (ATD, which is atherosclerotic disease, with emphasis on the thrombosis that so often precipitates the acute ATD event, such as acute myocardial infarction, acute cerebral infarction, aortic aneurysm, etc) is the prediction of the population at risk of ATD. There are many predictive tools, all of which use the same general risk factors, but the one favored by the author is the Bowling Green Study (BGS) graph.. This graph is based on the ATD risk factor constellations of 870 people in Bowling Green, Ohio, the county seat of Wood County, in northwest Ohio. (There is one other patient who has full lipid data and blood pressure data, but whose cigarette smoking status is not known.) The ordinate of the graph is the lipid arm and consists of the Cholesterol Retention Fraction (CRF, defined as [LDL-HDL]/LDL). HDL refers to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and LDL refers to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The abscissa of the graph is the blood pressure arm, represented by the systolic blood pressure (SBP). This graph was initially developed in 1981 (using the LDL:HDL ratio) then modified in 1983 (using the CRF), and, by 1988, the author was able to generate a threshold line, which separated the main stream of ATD patients’ CRF-SBP plots from those of a few outliers. (The threshold line is not a regression line, but rather a divider, based on the principle of the fewest false negatives.) The 1988 threshold line was modified in 2000 to its present location at CRF-SBP loci (0.74, 100) and (0.49, 140). Many of the various ATD risk predictors are complex and difficult to use, whereas the graph is simple to use and based on the risk factor constellations of actual ATD patients, wherein lies its value.

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 824-835 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kornelia Kotseva ◽  
Guy De Backer ◽  
Dirk De Bacquer ◽  
Lars Rydén ◽  
Arno Hoes ◽  
...  

Aims The aim of this study was to determine whether the Joint European Societies guidelines on secondary cardiovascular prevention are followed in everyday practice. Design A cross-sectional ESC-EORP survey (EUROASPIRE V) at 131 centres in 81 regions in 27 countries. Methods Patients (<80 years old) with verified coronary artery events or interventions were interviewed and examined ≥6 months later. Results A total of 8261 patients (females 26%) were interviewed. Nineteen per cent smoked and 55% of them were persistent smokers, 38% were obese (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), 59% were centrally obese (waist circumference: men ≥102 cm; women ≥88 cm) while 66% were physically active <30 min 5 times/week. Forty-two per cent had a blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg (≥140/85 if diabetic), 71% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥1.8 mmol/L (≥70 mg/dL) and 29% reported having diabetes. Cardioprotective medication was: anti-platelets 93%, beta-blockers 81%, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers 75% and statins 80%. Conclusion A large majority of coronary patients have unhealthy lifestyles in terms of smoking, diet and sedentary behaviour, which adversely impacts major cardiovascular risk factors. A majority did not achieve their blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and glucose targets. Cardiovascular prevention requires modern preventive cardiology programmes delivered by interdisciplinary teams of healthcare professionals addressing all aspects of lifestyle and risk factor management, in order to reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events.


Author(s):  
Danladi I. Musa ◽  
Abel L. Toriola ◽  
Daniel T. Goon ◽  
Sunday U. Jonathan

Purpose: This study examinedthe independent and joint association of fitness and fatness with clustered cardiovascular disease risk (CVDrs) in 11–18 year-old Nigerian adolescents. Methods: A hundred and ninety seven adolescents (100 girls and 97 boys) were evaluated forfitness, fatness and CVDrs. Fitness was evaluated with the progressive aerobic cardiovascular endurance run test while fatness was assessed using body mass index. A clustered CVDrs was computed from the standardized residuals of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, Low density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure. Regression models controlling for waist circumference assessed the association of fitness and fatness with CVDrs. Results: Prevalence of clustered CVD risk was 7.1% (girls = 3.0%; boys = 4.1%). Based on risk factor abnormalities, 52.8% of participants had one or more CVD risk factor abnormalities with more boys (27.4%) affected. Low fitness was associated with clustered CVDrs in both girls (R2 = 9.8%, β = −0.287, p = 0.05) and boys (R2 = 17%, β = −0.406, p < 0.0005). Fatness was not associated with the CVDrs in both sexes. After controlling for all the variables in the model, only fitness (R2 = 10.4%) and abdominal fat (R2 = 19.5%) were associated with CVDrs respectively. Unfit girls were 3.2 (95% CI = 1.31–7.91, p = 0.011) times likely to develop CVD risk abnormality compared to their fit counterparts. The likelihood of unfit boys developing CVD risk abnormality was 3.9 (95% CI = 1.15–10.08, p = 0.005) times compared to their fit peers. Conclusions: Fitness but not fatness was a better predictor of CVDrs in Nigerian boys and girls. The result of this study suggests that any public health strategies aimed at preventing or reversing the increasing trends of CVD risk in adolescents should emphasize promotion of aerobic fitness.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Shurkevich ◽  
A Vetoshkin ◽  
L Gapon ◽  
A Simonyan ◽  
V Kuznetsov

Abstract Introduction High prevalence of cardiovascular events at northern latitudes determines the necessity of studying mechanisms of formation and early diagnosis of atherosclerotic process. Purpose To determine the most unfavorable prognostic factors that provide the percentage of correct prediction and high accuracy in detection of atherosclerotic plaque (ASP) in common carotid arteries (CCA) in rotational shift workers in the Arctic. Methods Within 2010–2012 a study of 424 males aged 30–59 years at the medical unit “Gazprom dobycha Yamburg” (Yamburg settlement, 68°N) was performed. Patients were randomized into 2 groups according to blood pressure (BP). Gr.I included 294 people with BP more than 140/90 mmHg, arterial hypertension (AH) of 1,2 stage and Gr.II included 130 people with BP less than 140/90 mmHg. Groups did not differ in age (46.9±5.8 years, p=0.435); total work experience in the Arctic: 16.5±6.8 years (p=0.512) and rotational shiftwork duration: 12.5±4.6 years (p=0.597). Office BP was 149.4±13.3/97.1±7.3 mmHg in Gr.I and 123.4±7.5/80.5±5.5 mmHg in Gr.II. Ultrasound examination of carotid arteries with determination of presence or absence of ASP in CCA and estimation of stenosis using NASCET method were performed; ambulatory blood pressure monitoring was conducted; blood glucose levels, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol were determined. Statistical analysis was carried out using R (v. 3.6.1) programming language for statistical data processing of R Studio application package (v. 1.2.1335). Results Signs of CCA atherosclerosis were revealed in 56% of patients with AH and in 25% of those without AH. According to multivariate analysis, three variables with the most significant set of predictors, associated with ASP in CCA with the percentage of correct prediction of 75.9% were selected by step-by-step method: diastolic BP24 (&lt;0.0001), glucose (0.0167) and cholesterol (0.0439). Based on the obtained model, it was concluded that 1 mmHg increase in diastolic BP24 increases the risk for developing ASP by 5.9%, Exp. (Beta) = 1.059, 1 mmol/l increase in glucose and cholesterol escalates the risk by 44.1% and 25.2%, respectively: Exp. (Beta) = 1.441 and Exp. (Beta) = 1.252. Conclusion The data obtained will improve accuracy for the early diagnosis of subclinical atherosclerosis of CCA, allow to prescribe lipid-lowering therapy timely and reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in rotational shift workers in the Arctic. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard K. D. Ephraim ◽  
Patrick Adu ◽  
Edem Ake ◽  
Hope Agbodzakey ◽  
Prince Adoba ◽  
...  

Background.Abnormal lipid homeostasis in sickle cell disease (SCD) is characterized by defects in plasma and erythrocyte lipids and may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. This study assessed the lipid profile and non-HDL cholesterol level of SCD patients.Methods.A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted in 50 SCD patients, in the steady state, aged 8–28 years, attending the SCD clinic, and 50 healthy volunteers between the ages of 8–38 years. Serum lipids were determined by enzymatic methods and non-HDL cholesterol calculated by this formula: non-HDL-C = TC-HDL-C.Results.Total cholesterol (TC) (p=0.001) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (p<0.0001) were significantly decreased in cases compared to controls. The levels of non-HDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) were similar among the participants. The levels of decrease in TC and HDL were associated with whether a patient was SCD-SS or SCD-SC. Systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure were each significantly associated with increased VLDL [SBP,p=0.01, OR: 0.74 (CI: 0.6–0.93); DBP,p=0.023, OR: 1.45 (CI: 1.05–2.0)].Conclusion.Dyslipidemia is common among participants in this study. It was more pronounced in the SCD-SS than in SCD-SC. This dyslipidemia was associated with high VLDL as well as increased SBP and DBP.


Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nozomu Oda ◽  
Yukihito Higashi ◽  
Masato Kajikawa ◽  
Tatsuya Maruhashi ◽  
Akimichi Iwamoto ◽  
...  

Introduction: Endothelial function is impaired in heavy or binge drinking. Heavy drinking should be a predictor of endothelial dysfunction. However, there is little information on the effects of dose-dependent alcohol consumption on endothelial function. Therefore, we evaluated the relationship between alcohol consumption and endothelial function in a large general population. Methods and Results: We measured flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) in 2734 men who provided self-report about habitual alcohol intake. The subjects were divided into five groups by alcohol consumption: none (0 g/week), light (0 g/week< to ≤140 g/week), moderate (140 g/week< to ≤280 g/week), heavy (280 g/week< to ≤420 g/week), and excessive (420 g/week<). Age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, uric acid, plasma glucose, hemoglobin A1c, and current smoking were significantly correlated with alcohol consumption. FMD showed a gradual decrease according to increased alcohol consumption (none, 6.6±3.4%; light, 6.2±3.0%; moderate, 6.0±3.0%; heavy, 5.5±2.9%; excessive, 5.3±3.0%; P<0.01). There was a significant difference in FMD between the non-drinker group and the light drinker group (P=0.018). After adjusted risk factors, we showed the significantly smaller FMD in the 4 drinker groups than in the non-drinker group: light drinker group (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.75), moderate drinker group (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.82), heavy drinker group (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.87), excessive drinker group (OR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.43 to 2.89). Conclusions: These findings suggest that even light alcohol consumption impair the endothelial function. Alcohol drinking may be harmful for vascular function.


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