scholarly journals POTENSI PENERIMAAN PAJAK

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afdi Nizar ◽  
Kuntarto Purnomo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Underground Economy ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Currency Demand ◽  
Tax Loss ◽  
Data Period ◽  
Quantitative Approaches

This study aims to estimate the size of underground economy activities in Indonesia. Based on the results of these estimates, further calculated the potential tax loss due to the existence of underground economy activities. This study was conducted using quantitative approaches, namely currency demand model which is estimated by ordinary least square (OLS) method. By using time series (quarterly) data period 2000 - 2009 we found that the size of underground economy is about Rpl64, 4 trillion per year on average, equivalent to 6% of GDP. Meanwhile, the potential tax loss due to the activity estimated at Rp20,6 trillion on average per year, or approximately 0.69% of GDP.

ANALISIS UNDERGROUND ECONOMY INDONESIA DAN POTENSI PENERIMAAN PAJAK DI ERA TAX AMNESTY

INFO ARTHA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-78
Author(s):  
Andi Wawan Mulyawan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Underground Economy ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
Currency Demand ◽  
Tax Loss ◽  
Data Period

The growth of underground economy activity believed has potential tax loss. This study aims to estimate the size of underground economy activities in Indonesia. Based on the results of these estimates, further calculated the potential tax loss due to the existence of underground economy activities. This study was conducted using quantitative approaches, namely currency demand model by Vito Tanzi (1980) and Faal (2003) which is estimated by ordinary least square (OLS) method. By using time series (quarterly) data period 2011-2015 this study found that the size o f underground economy is about Rp 536 trillion per year on average, equivalent to 22,1% of GDP. Meanwhile, the potential tax loss due to the activity estimated at Rp 487,12 trillion on average per year, or approximately 1,9% of GDP.                      Berkembangnya kegiatan underground economy diyakini berpotensi menyebabkan hilangnya penerimaan negara melalui sektor perpajakan. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk menganalisis dan mengetahui besarnya nilai kegiatan underground economy regional di Indonesia pada periode 2011 s.d. 2015 dan besarnya potensi pajak yang hilang akibat adanya kegiatan underground economy tersebut. Dengan menggunakan data sekunder berbentuk runtut waktu (time series) triwulanan dari rilis publikasi Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Direktorat Jenderal Pajak Kementerian Keuangan dan metode analisis kuantitatif yang diestimasi dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) serta perhitungan estimasi underground economy menggunakan pendekatan moneter yang dikonstruksi oleh Vito Tanzi (1980) dan Faal (2003), penelitian ini secara empiris mengestimasi nilai underground economy. berkisar antara Rp 289 triliun sampai Rp 958 triliun dengan nilai rata-rata mencapai Rp 536 triliun per tahun atau setara dengan 22,1% terhadap PDB Nominal. Sementara itu, akibat adanya kegiatan underground economy, potensi pajak yang hilang berkisar antara Rp 23,32 triliun hingga Rp 1.467 triliun dengan rata-rata per tahun mencapai Rp 487,12 triliun atau setara dengan 1,9% dari PDB.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROPRUDENSIAL DAN MONETER TERHADAP HARGA PROPERTI DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Apri Yunita ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Least Square Estimation ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
The Impact

The research aims to see the impact as simultaneous and partial of Loan To Value (LTV), interest rate, and inflation to property prices in Indonesia. The type of data in studies are time series in quarterly data from first quarterly of 2008 to second quarterly of 2016. By using ordinary least square , estimation results show that LTV and interest rate partially have positive and significant impact on property prices in Indonesia. Meanwhile, inflation has negative but not significant on property prices in Indonesia. The suggestion about the the next research is give additional variables or other indication that have impact to property prices in Indonesia. Furthermore, Banks with property loan should arrange new strategy like reduce down payment or provide installments without down payment to homeless society. So that, the mortage growth can be sustained and speculator financing that causes an increase in property prices can be avoided.

Measuring the Underground Economy and its Impact on the Economy of Pakistan

2004 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bushra Yasmin ◽  
Hira Rauf
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Underground Economy ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Demand Equation ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Monetary Approach ◽  
Currency Demand ◽  
The Impact

This study focuses on the measurement of the underground economy (UGE) through tax evasion in Pakistan over the time period 1974-2002. The monetary approach is applied in order to estimate the underground economy. First, the currency demand equation is estimated and then an attempt is made to deduce the size of the underground economy and tax evasion. Finally, an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Model is applied in order to estimate the impact of the underground economy on Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan for a selected time period. The results demonstrated that the underground economy has increased enormously from Rs. 12 billion in 1974 to Rs. 1085 billion in 2002. The findings suggest that the existence of such a large UGE can decrease tax revenues, depress GDP, and raise socio-economic problems. Frequent tax audits and heavier penalties for tax evasion may minimise the size of the underground economy with its ill effects.

scholarly journals Estimating a global demand model for soybean traffic through the Panama Canal

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Ho ◽  
Paul Bernal
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Panama Canal ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Alternative Routes ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis study attempts to fit a global demand model for soybean traffic through the Panama Canal using Ordinary Least Square. Most of the soybean cargo through the interoceanic waterway is loaded on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast ports -mainly destined to East Asia, especially China-, and represented about 34% of total Panama Canal grain traffic between fiscal years 2010–19. To estimate the global demand model for soybean traffic, we are considering explanatory variables such as effective toll rates through the Panama Canal, U.S. Gulf- Asia and U.S. Pacific Northwest- Asia freight rates, Baltic Dry Index, bunker costs, soybean export inspections from the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest, U.S. Gulf soybean basis levels, Brazil’s soybean exports and average U.S. dollar index. As part of the research, we are pursuing the estimation of the toll rate elasticity of vessels transporting soybeans via the Panama Canal. Data come mostly from several U.S. Department of Agriculture sources, Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) and from Panama Canal transit information. Finally, after estimation of the global demand model for soybean traffic, we will discuss the implications for future soybean traffic through the waterway, evaluating alternative routes and sources for this trade.

scholarly journals Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau tahun 2000-2018

SOROT ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Miftakul Khoiri ◽  
Syapsan Syapsan ◽  
Sri Endang Kornita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

Terdapat beberapa permasalahan yang berbeda pada sumber daya di setiap daerah, yaitu investasi, tenaga kerja dan teknologi sebagai faktor pembentuk output perekonomian daerah. Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara investasi dalam bentuk Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN), belanja modal pemerintah, angkatan kerja dan ekspor dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tujuan penelitian adalah melihat pengaruh besarnya faktor-faktor tersebut terhadap Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau 2000-2018. Untuk kepentingan khusus penelitian dengan tujuan melihat pengaruh krisis keuangan global tahun 2008 terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi maka dimasukkan variabel dummy krisis keuangan. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode regresi berganda log-log linier dan data time series. Model diestimasi dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PMA, PMDN, angkatan kerja dan ekspor signifikan positif mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diukur dengan nilai Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB). Begitu juga dengan dummy krisis keuangan global meskipun berlangsung singkat ternyata berpengaruh terhadap PDRB di Provinsi Riau. Namun demikian ditemukan bahwa belanja modal pemerintah tidak signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan PDRB.There are some problems in resources of the regions, namely investment, labour force, and technology as the component factors to make the output of the region’s economy. This study aims to analyze the relationship between investment as consist of foreign direct investment (FDI), private investment, government capital expenditure, labour force, export and economic growth to the gross regional domestic product growth of regency in Riau Province 2000-2018. For the specific purpose of describing global financial crises in 2008 influence the economic growth, we put the dummy variable of the financial crisis in the model. This research is quantitative descriptive with the multiple regression model of log-linear and time series method using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study shows that government capital expenditure is statistically not significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. FDI, private investment, labour force and export is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. As well as a dummy of the global financial crisis is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth.

scholarly journals DETERMINASI KEMISKINAN PENDUDUK JAWA TENGAH 2013-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 478-483
Author(s):  
Laeli Sugiyono ◽  
Maharanny Diwid Prasetyawati
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis determinasi pengungkapan kemiskinan penduduk di Jawa Tengah. Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder berupa data panel gabungan data time series 2013-2017 dan data cross-sectional kabupaten/kota. Analisis data menggunakan model regresi Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dan model Efek Tetap (Fixed Effect).Penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa daterminasi kemiskinan penduduk di Jawa Tengah dapat diungkapkan melalui perubahan IPM, tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT), upah minimum kabupaten/kota (UMK), dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (PE). TPT sebagai variabel bebas berpengaruh signifikan positif, sedangkan IPM dan UMK berpengaruh signifikan negatif pada taraf nyata 5% terhadap kemiskinan penduduk sebagai variabel tidak bebas (dependent).

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INVESTASI SWASTA , PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH, DAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI KOTA BITUNG

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yandiles Weya ◽  
Vecky A.J. Masinambow ◽  
Rosalina A.M. Koleangan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
North Sulawesi ◽  
The City

ANALISIS PENGARUH INVESTASI SWASTA , PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH, DAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI KOTA BITUNG Yandiles Weya, Vecky A.J. Masinambow, Rosalina A.M. Koleangan. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Magister Ilmu EkonomiUniversitas Sam Ratulangi, Manado ABSTRAKPada suatu periode perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan negatif berarti kegiatan ekonomi pada periode tersebut mengalami penurunan. Kota Bitung periode tahun 2004-2014 mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang fluktuasi. Adanya fluktuasi ini dapat dipengaruhi oleh investasi swasta, belanja langsung, dan penduduk Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu tolok ukur keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi di suatu daerah. Pertumbuhan ekonomi mencerminkan kegiatan ekonomi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat bernilai positif dan dapat pula bernilai negatif. Jika pada suatu periode perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan positif berarti kegiatan ekonomi pada periode tersebut mengalami peningkatan. Sedangkan jikaTahun 2004-2014 yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sulut dan Kota Bitung. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model ekonometrik regresi berganda double-log (log-log) dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah perkembangan investasi swasta, belanja langsung, dan penduduk berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Bitung. Data yang dipakai menggunakan data time series periodeHasil regresi model pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan persamaan regresinya yaitu  LPDRB  =  - 4,445    +  0.036 LINV  +  0.049 LBL  +  2,229 LPOP.  Dari hasil tersebutmenunjukkan perkembangan investasi swasta, belanja langsung dan penduduk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Bitung.Kata Kunci :pertumbuhan ekonomi, belanja langsung, penduduk, regresi bergandaABSTRACT    The economy experienced a period of negative growth means economic activity in this period has decreased. Bitung-year period 2004-2014 economic growth fluctuations. These fluctuations can be influenced by private investment, direct spending, and population Economic growth is one measure of the success of economic development in an area. Economic growth reflects economic activity. Economic growth can be positive and can also be negative. If the economy experienced a period of positive growth means economic activity during the period has increased. Whereas if  years 2004-2014 are sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sulawesi Province and Bitung. The analytical method used is an econometric model double-log regression (log-log) with Ordinary Least Square (OLS). This study aims to determine whether the development of private investment, direct spending, and population affect the economic growth of the city of Bitung. The data used using time series data period.    The results of the regression model of economic growth with the regression equation is LPDRB = - LINV 4.445 + 0.036 + 0.049 + 2.229 LPOP LBL. From these results show the development of private investment, direct expenditure and population positive and significant impact on economic growth of Bitung.Keywords: Economic growth, direct spending, population, regression.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN SBI TERHADAP PENERIMAAN PAJAK DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahmanta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

The research to analyse effect net domestic product and SBI on tax revenue in Indonesia with independent variables  net domestic product and SBI also dependent variables tax revenue. Data is a time series between 1981 - 2010 with ordinary least square (OLS) and the model of formula used is multiply linier regression.  The research result shows that net domestic product gives a positive effect and significant on tax revenue in Indonesia on 99% level. While SBI has a negative effect and significant on tax revenue in Indonesia on 90% level.

Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan pengangguran terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Sumatera Selatan

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Novegya Ratih Primandari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

This research aims to analyze effect of economic growth, inflation and Unemployment on the Rate of Poverty in the Province of South Sumatera. This research used secondary data in the form of time series data from 2001-2017. The method used quantitative approach by applying a linear regression model with OLS estimation Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study indicate that partially and simultaneously Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment have a significant effect on the Poverty Rate in the Province of South Sumatera.

scholarly journals Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Waqas Ahmad ◽  
Sadia Mir ◽  
Maria Siddique ◽  
Hafiz Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Model Sample ◽  
Data Period

This study examines the effects of increasing trade openness on Pakistan’s economic growth. A four variable macro model based on the textbook type familiar aggregate demand – aggregate supply framework is specified. And a simple ordinary least square (OLS) technique is used for the estimation. For Pakistan, shocks to trade openness have negative (but insignificant) effects on output growth. The significance of the results depends on the specification of the model, sample size and the length of the data period. The results seem to be consistent with the findings of some empirical studies in which a country may suffer a loss due to increase openness of an economy.

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