scholarly journals Estimation of Consumption Function for Developing Economies: China, Turkey, Vietnam and Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol V (I) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Saima Liaqat ◽  
Marguerite Wotto ◽  
Khalid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Function ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Real Gdp

This study analyses the determinants of consumption function for four countries: China and Turkey as Upper Middle-Income Economies (UMIE); Bangladesh and Vietnam as Lower Middle-Income Economies (LMIE). It used a model based on the ARDL technique to analyze the time series data for the period of 1985- 2018. The results reveal that wealth and labor income have a similar impact on consumption in UMIE and LMIE since they affect significantly and positively aggregate consumption. Unemployment and real interest rates have an analogous result for UMIE while assorted results LMIE. The real interest rate harms RPAC as evidence of income effect. However, the short-term wealth and real GDP positively affect real RPAC whereas the unemployment rate and real interest rate negatively affect aggregate real private consumption of the selected economies.

An Analysis of Consumption Function: A Case Study of Upper Middle Income Economies

2018 ◽  
pp. 223-235
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Ahmed Shaikh Et al.,
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Consumption Function ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The Real ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run

This paper draws on evidence of consumption function from four-country group case-studies of upper middle-income economies (together termed as developing economies). The ARDL model is applied to the time series data from 1985 to 2017 to understand the major components of the aggregate consumption function. The result reveals that labor income and wealth impact in all economies are similar and have a significant positive impact on real private aggregate consumption. Similarly, the real interest rate and unemployment have an analogous effect on real private aggregate consumption. The real interest rate has a negative effect on aggregate real private consumption supporting income effect. In the short run real GDP and wealth have a positive impact on aggregate real private consumption while real interest rate and unemployment rate have a negative effect on aggregate real private consumption for selected economies. Moreover, overall PIH is valid for long-run, while AIH is valid for short-run in the selected countries.

scholarly journals A Study on Estimation and Prediction of Vector Time Series Model Using Financial Big Data (Interest Rates)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 309-316
Author(s):  
Jae-Hyun Kim, Chang-Ho An
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Call Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Due to the global economic downturn, the Korean economy continues to slump. Hereupon the Bank of Korea implemented a monetary policy of cutting the base rate to actively respond to the economic slowdown and low prices. Economists have been trying to predict and analyze interest rate hikes and cuts. Therefore, in this study, a prediction model was estimated and evaluated using vector autoregressive model with time series data of long- and short-term interest rates. The data used for this purpose were call rate (1 day), loan interest rate, and Treasury rate (3 years) between January 2002 and December 2019, which were extracted monthly from the Bank of Korea database and used as variables, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used as a research model. The stationarity test of variables was confirmed by the ADF-unit root test. Bidirectional linear dependency relationship between variables was confirmed by the Granger causality test. For the model identification, AICC, SBC, and HQC statistics, which were the minimum information criteria, were used. The significance of the parameters was confirmed through t-tests, and the fitness of the estimated prediction model was confirmed by the significance test of the cross-correlation matrix and the multivariate Portmanteau test. As a result of predicting call rate, loan interest rate, and Treasury rate using the prediction model presented in this study, it is predicted that interest rates will continue to drop.

scholarly journals https://www.asianinstituteofresearch.org/JEBarchives/The-Influences-of-Interest-Rate%2C-Inflation-and-Market-Risk-on-the-Performance-of-Stock-Mutual-Funds-Through-to-the-Variables-Moderating-of-Stock-Index-LQ45-Registered-on-IDX-2016-2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Anny Rahayu ◽  
◽  
Zainul Kisman ◽  
Dwi Sunu Kanto
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Independent Variable

This study aims to determine the effect of interest rates, inflation and market risk on the performance of stock mutual funds with a stock index of lq45 as the moderating variable. The independent variable in this case is the interest rate (x1), inflation (x2), market risk (x3) and the dependent variable is the performance of stock mutual funds (y) and the stock index lq45 as the intervening variable (m). The type of research used is associative research, with a quantitative approach. This study takes all time series data that converts interest rates, inflation and market risk, stock index lq45 and the performance of stock mutual fund for the period 2016 to 2019. The number of research samples using saturated sampling techniques obtained is 40 samples. Data analysis used multiple regression analysis and moderated regression analysis using spss23. The results of the F test show that the lq45 index is able to moderate the independent variable interest rate, inflation, market risk together on the performance of stock mutual funds. The t test results show that the stock index lq45 is able to moderate the relationship between the variable interest rate and market risk on the performance of stock mutual funds, while the inflation variable cannot be moderated by the stock index lq45 on the performance of stock mutual funds.

scholarly journals Effect of Interest Rate on Stock Prices in Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1(S)) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Peter Arhenful ◽  
Augustine Kwadwo Yeboah ◽  
Kofi Sarfo Adjei
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Ghana Stock Exchange ◽  
Adf Test

The paper assesses the effect of interest rate on stock prices, with emphases on Ghana Stock Exchange; using monthly time series data from July 2007 to December 2019. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was employed to establish the stationarity properties of the data or otherwise. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique of Multiple Regression, the results (? = – 0.891, p < 0.05) revealed an indirect association between interest rates and stock prices in the Ghanaian context; which is consistent with the theoretical conclusion that an increase in interest rate results in a decrease in stock prices. Thus, in the light of this finding, it was recommended that policymakers should consider the stock market dynamics due to the significant relationship that exists between the two macroeconomic variables.

scholarly journals Unbundling interest rate and bank credit nexus on income inequality: structural break analysis from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bosede Ngozi Adeleye
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag

Purpose Income inequality stalls economic growth with undesirable socio-economic consequences. Despite various measures targeted towards reducing the inequality gap, disparities in income distribution persist in Nigeria. Therefore, this study aims to explore a new line of argument to the finance mechanism in reducing income inequality. Design/methodology/approach The study uses time-series data on Nigeria from 1980 to 2015 with analysis conducted using the autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model approach of Pesaran et al. (2001). Findings The results show amongst others that the channel of real interest rate on income inequality is through bank credit, real interest rate has an indirect relationship to income inequality and bank credit has an equalising impact on income inequality when the model is augmented for a structural break. The results show amongst others, that, on average, ceteris paribus, a 1% point increase in the real lending interest rate is associated with a 0.45% decline in the volume of bank credit. Originality/value This paper engages a new line of argument by unbundling how financial intermediation impacts on income inequality. The extant literature submits that finance directly impacts income inequality, whereas this study investigates further to show that interest rate impacts income inequality through bank credit. That is, the transmission mechanism by which finance affects income inequality is modelled and analysed.

scholarly journals FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INVESTASI PEMERINTAH PADA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI PROVINSI JAMBI

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Mulyani Mulyani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Agriculture Sector

This research was conducted to analyse government investment in agriculture sector at Jambi Province. This research was held  on June - September 2017 by collecting data from several agencies. It used a time series data for 10 years (2006-2015).  This research  applied   multiple linear regression to  analyse the data. The results show that 95.9% of government investment in agriculture sector could  be  explained by  domestic  income variable, export-import growth of agriculture sector, real interest rate, rupiah exchange rate, previous government investment, and growth of agriculture sector. In fact the factors that had a significant effect were domestic  income variable, , export-import growth of agricultural sector, previous government investment and the growth of agriculture sector.Keywords: government investment, agricultural sector, growthPenelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis investasi pemerintah pada sektor pertanian di Provinsi Jambi. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Provinsi Jambi dengan mengumpulkan data dari beberapa instansi terkait, yang dilaksanakan pada bulan Juni 2017 sampai September 2017. Dimana penelitian ini menggunakan data time series, dengan rentang waktu 10 tahun (2006-2015). Analisis data pada penelitian ini menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan 95,9% penyerapan investasi pemerintah pada sektor pertanian dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel pendapatan asli daerah,pertumbuhan ekspor-impor sektor pertanian, tingkat suku bunga riil, nilai tukar rupiah, investasi pemerintah pada tahun sebelumnya, dan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian. Dari faktor-faktor tersebut yang berpengaruh signifikan adalah Pendapatan asli daerah, pertumbuhan ekspor impor sektor pertanian, investasi pemrintah pada tahun sebelumnya dan pertumbuhan sektor pertanian.Kata Kunci : investasi pemerintah, sektor Pertanian, pertumbuhan

scholarly journals Assessment of the Determinants of Balance of Payment in Tanzania

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-75
Author(s):  
Magreth Exuper Kingia ◽  
Seif Muba
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square Regression ◽  
The Interest Rate

The purpose of the study was to assess the determinants of the balance of payment in Tanzania. The nature of this study was quantitative where secondary time series data covering a period of thirty-one years between 1990 and 2020 were collected. The study performed descriptive statistics and diagnostic tests such as normality test, unit root test for stationarity, Pearson’s Correlation matrix to check if there is a multicollinearity problem in the data. The diagnostic tests revealed that the data bring unbiased results, therefore the ordinary least square regression was performed and we found that foreign direct investment and inflation rate have a negative and significant influence on the balance of payment, whereas exchange rate has a positive and insignificant influence on the balance of payment, and the interest rate has an insignificant negative influence on the balance of payment. Finally, we recommend that a country have to introduce relative prices of imports in order to improve the inflows of FDI in order to have a favourable balance of payment in a country like Tanzania. Also, Tanzania's central bank must be cautious in its monetary policy and take some beneficial steps to regulate the money supply. To attract the new internal investor, it must keep an eye on interest rates and charge a low-interest rate.

scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Bank’s Profitability in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.21) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Pang Jiunn Yi ◽  
Devinaga R ◽  
Yuen Yee Yen ◽  
Suganthi . ◽  
Shalini .
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

The topic of this research paper is “The macroeconomic determinants of foreign bank’s profitability in Malaysia. Panel data method were employed to analyze the cross sectional data and time series data collected  from 2006 to 2015 from a sample of ten foreign banks in Malaysia. Measurement of profitability is based on Return on assets which is a function of the macroeconomic determinants; GDP, inflation rate and real interest rate. The overall finding of this research study shows that GDP, inflation rate and real interest rate are the determinants of foreign banks in Malaysia. Those determinants were found to be statistically related on profitability and all of them had a positive relationship towards the profitability of foreign banks in Malaysia.  

scholarly journals Nominal Interest Rate, Inflation Money and Market Link in Bangladesh: An Econometric Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-68
Author(s):  
Sanjida Akter Chowdhury ◽  
Md. Yousuf ◽  
Md. Nezum Uddin ◽  
Mohammed Jashim Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Fisher Hypothesis

This paper pursues to establish a connection among the nominal interest rate, the money market, and the inflation rate in Bangladesh using monthly time series data from June 2005 to March 2019. Because some data are stationary at the level and others are stationary at the 1st difference, the ARDL model is applicable for checking the link. There is a strong positive short-term and long-term relationship between inflation and nominal interest rates, suggesting that Bangladeshi data support the Fisher hypothesis for that time. For this study, the T bill, the call money rate is used as a measure of the money market. The research indicates that regulators should concentrate on call money rates in short-term and T-bill and call money rates in the long-term to control Bangladesh's nominal interest rate.

scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Chairannisa Arjunita
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Series Data

This study aims to  analyze the effect of interest rate, money supply,exchange rate and inflation targeting framework policy on inflation in Indonesia.The type of this research are descriptive and associative using time series data fromthe first quarter of 1997 until the fourth quarter of 2015 with documentation datacollected technique. Data were analyzed with multiple linear regression model, theprerequisite test (multicolinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity), t test, andF test. The result shows that (1) Interest Rates has positive and significant effect oninflation in Indonesia. (2) Money Supply has positive and not significant effect oninflation in Indonesia. (3) Exchange rate has negative and not significant effect oninflation in Indonesia.  (4) Inflation Targeting Framewrok Policy has positive andsignificant effect on inflation in Indonesia.

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