scholarly journals Methodological issues in the estimation of current account imbalances1

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
Valerio Della Corte ◽  
Claire Giordano
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Ca Model ◽  
Technical Issues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A Current ◽  
Selection Of

The study outlines the main challenges in measuring external imbalances via a “current account (CA) model”, from which a CA “norm” may be derived and against which the actual CA is appraised. The selection of both the dependent and explanatory variables and technical issues in the estimation procedure are amongst the concerns raised. The impact on CA modelling of global trends, such as the expansion of MNEs, and of the COVID-19 pandemic is also discussed. The paper does not prescribe fully-fledged solutions, but rather provides awareness and hints on how to possibly tackle at least some of these challenges.

scholarly journals Comments on "Researcher bias: The use of machine learning in software defect prediction"

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chakkrit Tantithamthavorn ◽  
Shane McIntosh ◽  
Ahmed E Hassan ◽  
Kenichi Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Defect Prediction ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Software Defect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Selection Of

Shepperd et al. (2014) find that the reported performance of a defect prediction model shares a strong relationship with the group of researchers who construct the models. In this paper, we perform an alternative investigation of Shepperd et al. (2014)’s data. We observe that (a) researcher group shares a strong association with the dataset and metric families that are used to build a model; (b) the strong association among the explanatory variables introduces a large amount of interference when interpreting the impact of the researcher group on model performance; and (c) after mitigating the interference, we find that the researcher group has a smaller impact than the metric family. These observations lead us to conclude that the relationship between the researcher group and the performance of a defect prediction model may have more to do with the tendency of researchers to reuse experimental components (e.g., datasets and metrics). We recommend that researchers experiment with a broader selection of datasets and metrics to combat potential bias in their results.

scholarly journals Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something True? A Comment on Lister's ‘Institutions, Inequality and Social Norms: Explaining Variations in Participation’

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 681-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Arzheimer
Keyword(s):  
Social Norms ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Societal Factors ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Methodological Problems ◽  
T Values ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Robust Evidence ◽  
Selection Of

Michael Lister makes a useful contribution to the discussion on aggregate variables that foster or depress turnout by drawing attention to societal factors, but his analysis is fraught with methodological problems. While his article builds on an interesting theoretical argument about the impact of institutions on attitudes, his claims about causal relationships are not backed by data. There is no rationale for the selection of countries, and most explanatory variables are actually constant within countries. The specification of the model is problematic in many ways. A careful re-analysis shows that the t-values reported in Lister's article are far too large, while the estimates are unstable and dependent on the selection of observations. Moreover, the effects are trivial in terms of their political implications. There is no robust evidence for a universal, politically relevant relationship between inequality and turnout.

scholarly journals Détermination Du Seuil De Viabilité De La Position Extérieure Au Maroc: Evaluation Empirique

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Abdellali Fadlallah ◽  
Zakaria Chakhat
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Econometric Study ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

This paper focuses on addressing question on the sustainability of the Moroccan current account. The purpose of this study is to examine theoretical and empirical determinants of the behaviour of the current account deficit in order to apprehend economic policy decisions. An econometric study was conducted in this sense using a vector error-correction model (VECM) during the period (2004Q1-2013Q4). This technique enabled the capture of the longterm relationship. the impact of explanatory variables on the current account was also examined. The examination of the sustainability threshold calculated by the Reisena method revealed that signs of unsustainability have emerged since 2008, which is in line with the results of MFR. However, it is only in 2011 that the current account exhibits deficits that largely exceed the optimal threshold, exposing the national economy to greater vulnerability.

scholarly journals Individual Capacities of Hellwig’s Information Carriers and the Impact of Attributes in the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estate Mass Appraisal

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Doszyń
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Ordinal Scale ◽  
Kendall’S Tau ◽  
Kendall's Tau ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract A statistical method of defining the impact of real estate attributes based on individual capacities of Hellwig’s information carriers was proposed in the paper. The method may be used for defining the impact of attributes in the Szczecin algorithm of real estate mass appraisal. The proposed procedure refers to the so-called Hellwig’s method, used for the selection of explanatory variables in an econometric model. In the case of real estate attributes, we typically deal with variables measured on an ordinal scale. Therefore, Kendall’s tau coefficients (tau a, tau b, tau c) will be applied in order to determine the strength and direction of a relation between variables. These coefficients enable the measuring of the strength and direction of a relation between variables measured on an ordinal scale. After valuating proper matrices of Kendall’s tau coefficients, individual capacities of Hellwig’s information carriers were determined, on the basis of which the impact of attributes in the Szczecin algorithm of real estate mass appraisal was defined. The proposed procedure was supported with an empirical example using a real data base that comprises 99 undeveloped land properties of industrial designation, including depots, storehouses, warehouses, and yards. After determining the impact of each attribute, the Szczecin mass appraisal algorithm was used to evaluate values. The obtained real estate values were very close to the values obtained by real estate experts.

The Impact Of Discount Rate Choice In Estimating The Workout LGD

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia Gibilaro ◽  
Gianluca Mattarocci
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Loss Given Default ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Proprietary Database ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

<p>The workout approach to estimating the loss given default compares the actual value of the recovery flows with the exposure at default to measure the efficacy of the recovery process. One of the main problems related to this approach is the selection of the proper discount rate for evaluating the portfolio. In the literature, there are different solutions proposed, but there is no evidence on the impact of the choice of one of these alternatives on the LGD measurement. This paper looks at a proprietary database for the timeframe 1985-2005, evaluates the impact of the discount rate on the LGD value and studies the main determinants of LGDs computed using different approaches. Even if the explanatory variables are the same, LGDs defined using different discount rates show differences in the percentile distribution that could significantly affect the capital requirements of a financial intermediary.</p>

Methods for Restricting Maximum Exposure Rate in Computerized Adaptative Testing

Methodology ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Ramon Barrada ◽  
Julio Olea ◽  
Vicente Ponsoda
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Accuracy ◽  
Computerized Adaptive Testing ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Adaptive Testing ◽  
Exposure Rate ◽  
Control Parameters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Two Alternatives ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Maximum Exposure

Abstract. The Sympson-Hetter (1985) method provides a means of controlling maximum exposure rate of items in Computerized Adaptive Testing. Through a series of simulations, control parameters are set that mark the probability of administration of an item on being selected. This method presents two main problems: it requires a long computation time for calculating the parameters and the maximum exposure rate is slightly above the fixed limit. Van der Linden (2003) presented two alternatives which appear to solve both of the problems. The impact of these methods in the measurement accuracy has not been tested yet. We show how these methods over-restrict the exposure of some highly discriminating items and, thus, the accuracy is decreased. It also shown that, when the desired maximum exposure rate is near the minimum possible value, these methods offer an empirical maximum exposure rate clearly above the goal. A new method, based on the initial estimation of the probability of administration and the probability of selection of the items with the restricted method ( Revuelta & Ponsoda, 1998 ), is presented in this paper. It can be used with the Sympson-Hetter method and with the two van der Linden's methods. This option, when used with Sympson-Hetter, speeds the convergence of the control parameters without decreasing the accuracy.

IMF Stabilization Programs, Policy Conduct and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Case Study of Pakistan

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-62
Author(s):  
Nawaz A. Hakro ◽  
Wadho Waqar Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Imf

This study is designed to assess the macroeconomic performance of fund-supported programs, and the sequencing and ordering of macroeconomic policies in the context of the Pakistan economy. The generalized evaluation estimator technique has been used to assess the macroeconomic impacts of the IMF supported programs. GDP growth, inflation rate, current account balance, fiscal balance and unemployment are used as the target variables in order to gauge economic performance during the program years. The vector of policy variables (that might have been adopted in the absence of programs) and the vector of foreign exogenous variables are also taken as explanatory variables in the model, so that the individual effect of the IMF supported programs could be assessed. The result suggests that as the IMF prescriptions were applied, the current account balance has worsened, the unemployment rate has significantly increased, and the inflation rate has increased during the years of fund-supported programs. Only the budget balance has shown signs of improvement. Furthermore an inadequate sequencing of reforms has contributed to the further worsening of the economic scenario during the program period.

The impact of applying the Common Customs Tariff on the armenian export of Cut and Polished Gems to Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
V. L. Harutyunyan ◽  
S. V. Dokholyan ◽  
A. R. Makaryan
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Diamond Cutting ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Impact

The presented study discusses the issues of applying the Common Customs Tariff (CCT) rates of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on rough diamonds and the impact thereof on the exports of stones cut and polished inArmeniaand then exported toRussia.Aim. The study aims to identify the possible strategies Armenian diamond cutting and polishing companies could adopt as a response to the application of the CCT rates on rough diamonds and how it would affect exports to various destinations, namely to Russia.Tasks. The authors analyze the current state of the gems and jewelry sector and substantiate the need to either integrate it into the jewelry manufacturing sector or to apply various strategies to facilitate exports to either Russia or other destinations in the medium term in response to the application of the CCT rates.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, including analytical and methodological approaches and elements of forecasting. Possible strategies the Armenian diamond cutting and polishing companies could adopt in the medium term in response to the application of the EAEU CCT rates are determined using the analytical research method, forecasts in the context of the developments in the Armenian gem processing and jewelry market and global trends, statistical data on the imports and exports of cut and polished gems and jewelry for 2014–2018 published by the UN Comtrade Statistics.Results. Statistics on the exports of processed diamonds from 2014 to 2018 highlights the issue associated with the loss of competitiveness suffered by Armenian companies (mainly in comparison with Indian diamond cutters). The major global trends in the diamond cutting and polishing business indicate that it could be virtually impossible for Armenian cutters and polishers to compete with Indian companies in the medium term if they do not comes to investing in new technology to achieve operational efficiency. For these companies, it is important not to lose the Russian market due to an increase in the tariff rate and concentrate on the processing of gems that are larger than 1 carat. Another strategy to avoid an increase in the customs tariff rates would depend on the Armenian government’s ability to negotiate with Russia in respect of direct imports of diamond stones from Russian manufactures. Two other options for Armenian cutters involve focusing on cutting and polishing of rubies, sapphires, emeralds, etc. or integrating into the jewelry sector either by being the primary supplier or by considering this business as a channel to sell processed diamond stones by setting up their own jewelry manufacturing companies.Conclusions. With CCT going into effect in January 2021 and India’s dominant role in the diamond cutting and polishing business, Armenia needs to carefully consider all of the strategies the Armenian companies could adopt, as discussed above. As a member state of the EAEU, Armenia freely exports to Russia, however, further exports to Russia would depend on Armenia’s ability to ensure that cost-effective operations are in place, or to concentrate on the processing of precious gems rather than diamonds, or to switch to the manufacturing of jewelry items as a major export item.Practical Implication. The findings of this study could be of interest to the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Armenia and Business Armenia that could be used in elaborating the strategy for the development of Armenian gems and jewelry sector of the economy.

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