scholarly journals Comparison of simple moving average and arima timeseries forecasting models on independent historic data and extrapolating echo program attendance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sara Kasukurthy
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Measuring Error ◽  
P Value ◽  
Telemedicine Service ◽  
Community Healthcare ◽  
Case Based Learning ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Program Attendance

Background: The Extension of Community Healthcare Outcome program (ECHO) is an educational and training telemedicine service that provides voluntary case-based learning opportunities for healthcare professionals. Prediction of participant attendance will be useful to improve the sessions with early requirements to maximize the benefits. Usually, the most sophisticated Auto Regressive models are used for forecasting, when the data contains observation with multiple variables and dependencies, Simple Moving Average (SMA) models are used less in such conditions. In this study we want to examine the accuracy and reliability of Moving Average models compared with Auto Regressive models. The objective of this work is to develop an accurate forecasting model for ECHO program attendance by considering non-stationary, independent organizational data. Methods: The study analyzed 2015-2019 Show Me ECHO attendance data from the Missouri Telehealth Network (MTN). The first step; trained and tested both SMA and ARIMA predictive models without any dependent variables and evaluated both models by measuring error values. The second step; used the best model to forecast ECHO attendance for years 2020 - 2025. Results: The SMA model was better than the ARIMA model for independent data with lower error values MAE - 38.9, MSE - 2552.15, MAPE - 32.9 percent, p- value: 3.36E-28, and higher R - square: 87 percent. Where ARIMA model was with higher error values MAE - 61.8, MSE - 7198.88, MAPE - 37.7 percent, p- value: 6.25E-22, and lower R - square: 80 percent. Conclusion: Simple Moving Average (SMA) is more accurate than Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) in forecasting future ECHO program attendance. Based on prediction; In 2019, the attendance range was 250-550, where in 2025 it got increased to 530-1170; shows that telehealth attendance will be doubled in th

Prognosticating the spread of covid-19 pandemic based on optimal arima estimators

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venuka Sandhir ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
Vikash Kumar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Stable Case ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Threat

Background: COVID-19 cases have been reported as a global threat and several studies are being conducted using various modelling techniques to evaluate patterns of disease dispersion in the upcoming weeks. Here we propose a simple statistical model that could be used to predict the epidemiological extent of community spread of COVID-19from the explicit data based on optimal ARIMA model estimators. Methods: Raw data was retrieved on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins University (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on cumulative daily figures of confirmed cases aggregated globally for ten major countries to predict their incidence trend. Statistical analysis was completed by using R 3.5.3 software. Results: The optimal ARIMA model having the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value for US (0,2,0); Spain (1,2,0); France (0,2,1); Germany (3,2,2); Iran (1,2,1); China (0,2,1); Russia (3,2,1); India (2,2,2); Australia (1,2,0) and South Africa (0,2,2) imparted the nowcasting of trends for the upcoming weeks. These parameters are (p, d, q) where p refers to number of autoregressive terms, d refers to number of times the series has to be differenced before it becomes stationary, and q refers to number of moving average terms. Results obtained from ARIMA model showed significant decrease cases in Australia; stable case for China and rising cases has been observed in other countries. Conclusion: This study tried their best at predicting the possible proliferate of COVID-19, although spreading significantly depends upon the various control and measurement policy taken by each country.

Towards optimal ATM cash replenishment using time series analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rafi ◽  
Mohammad Taha Wahab ◽  
Muhammad Bilal Khan ◽  
Hani Raza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Automatic Teller Machine ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Specific Amount

Automatic Teller Machine (ATM) are still largely used to dispense cash to the customers. ATM cash replenishment is a process of refilling ATM machine with a specific amount of cash. Due to vacillating users demands and seasonal patterns, it is a very challenging problem for the financial institutions to keep the optimal amount of cash for each ATM. In this paper, we present a time series model based on Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique called Time Series ARIMA Model for ATM (TASM4ATM). This study used ATM back-end refilling historical data from 6 different financial organizations in Pakistan. There are 2040 distinct ATMs and 18 month of replenishment data from these ATMs are used to train the proposed model. The model is compared with the state-of- the-art models like Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Amazon’s DeepAR model. Two approaches are used for forecasting (i) Single ATM and (ii) clusters of ATMs (In which ATMs are clustered with similar cash-demands). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) are used to evaluate the models. The suggested model produces far better forecasting as compared to the models in comparison and produced an average of 7.86/7.99 values for MAPE/SMAPE errors on individual ATMs and average of 6.57/6.64 values for MAPE/SMAPE errors on clusters of ATMs.

scholarly journals Growth, instability and forecast of marine products export from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Apu Das ◽  
Nalini Ranjan Kumar ◽  
Prathvi Rani
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Marine Products ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Instability Indices

This paper analysed growth and instability in export of marine products from India with an attempt to forecast the total export quantity of marine products from the country. The compound growth rates and instability indices of marine products export from India were estimated for major importing countries viz., Japan, USA, European Union, South-east Asia and Middle East; as more than 80% of the marine products export from India destines to these markets. The study revealed high compound growth rate and low instability in case of selected countries. The study also revealed that India’s marine products export concentrated mainly to those countries, which were falling in less desirable or least desirable category which has affected export performance of the country. Forecast of India’s marine products export was done by fitting univariate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was found suitable for modelling marine products export from India. The results of ARIMA model indicated increasing trend in export of Indian marine products. This calls for serious attention by policy makers to identify competitive and stable market destinations for marine products export which could help in harnessing the potential of marine products export from India.

Predicting Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in India

2021 ◽  
pp. 34-51
Author(s):  
Sudip Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Autocorrelation Function ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Partial Autocorrelation Function ◽  
Auto Regressive

India, with a population of over 1.38 billion, is facing high number of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases. In this chapter, the authors have applied ARIMA model (auto-regressive integrated moving average) to predict daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in India. Detailed univariate time series analysis was conducted on daily confirmed data from 19.03.2020 to 28.07.2020, and the predictions from the model were satisfactory with root mean square error (RSME) of 7,103. Data for this study was obtained from various reliable sources, including the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) and http://covid19india.org/. The model identified was ARIMA(1,1,1) based on time series decomposition, autocorrelation function (ACF), and partial autocorrelation function (PACF).

scholarly journals Analysis and Forecast of Mining Fatalities in Cherat Coal Field, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 22-26
Author(s):  
Sajid Khan ◽  
Kausar Sultan Shah ◽  
Naeem Abbas ◽  
Abdur Rahman ◽  
Naseer Muhammad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Management System ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Coal Field ◽  
Safety Management System ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Mineral Production

Mineral exploitation contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. Managing mineral production brought a more disturbing environment linked to workers' causalities due to scarcities in the safety management system. One of the barriers to attaining an adequate safety management system is the unavailability of future information relating to accidents causing fatalities. Policymakers always try to manage the safety system after each accident. Therefore, a precise forecast of the number of workers fatalities can provide significant observation to strengthen the safety management system. This study involves forecasting the number of mining workers fatalities in Cherat coal mines by using Auto-Regressive Integrating Moving Average Method (ARIMA) model. Workers' fatalities information was collected over the period of 1994 to 2018 from Mine Workers Federation, Inspectorate of Mines and Minerals and company records to evaluate the long-term forecast. Various diagnostic tests were used to obtain an optimistic model. The results show that ARIMA (0, 1, 2) was the most appropriate model for workers fatalities. Based on this model, casualties from 2019 to 2025 have been forecasted. The results suggest that policymakers should take systematic consideration by evaluating possible risks associated with an increased number of fatalities and develop a safe and effective working platform.

scholarly journals PERAMALAN LAJU INFLASI DENGAN METODE AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djawoto Djawoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Stationary Time ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Auto Regression

Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) or the combination model of Auto Regression with moving average, is a linier model which is able to represent the stationary time series or non stationary time series. The purpose of this research is to forecast the inflation rate in November 2010 with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by using ARIMA. The inflation indicator is very important to anticipate in making the Government’s policy and decision as well as for the citizen is for the information to determine what to do in related with savings and investment. By looking at the existing criteria, it is determined that the best model is ARIMA (1,1,0) or AR (1). Model ARIMA (1,1,0), the coefficient value AR (1) is significant,which has the most minimum value of Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwars Criterion (SC) compare toARIMA (0,1,1) or MA (1) and ARIMA (1,1,1) or AR (1) MA (1). In summarize, the ARIMA model used to forecast the valueof IHK is ARIMA (1,1,0).

scholarly journals Time-Series Forecasting and Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Highly Populated Countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Arunkumar P. M. ◽  
Lakshmana Kumar Ramasamy ◽  
Amala Jayanthi M.
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Important Research Area

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.

scholarly journals An Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model for prediction of energy consumption by household sector in Euro area

AIMS Energy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-164
Author(s):  
Akram Jahanshahi ◽  
◽  
Dina Jahanianfard ◽  
Amid Mostafaie ◽  
Mohammadreza Kamali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Household Sector ◽  
Auto Regressive

scholarly journals Forecasting of saline intrusion in Ham Luong river, Ben Tre province (Southern Vietnam) using Box-Jenkins ARIMA models

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 446-453
Author(s):  
Thai Thanh Tran ◽  
Luong Duc Thien ◽  
Ngo Xuan Quang ◽  
Lam Van Tan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Saline Intrusion ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Southern Vietnam ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Local Residents

Introduction: Ham Luong River is a branch of Mekong River located in Ben Tre Province, which has played a crucial role in supporting livelihoods of local residents and the province's economic development. However, the saline intrusion has been expanding in Ham Luong River, which seriously affects the productive agriculture, aquaculture, and further causes tremendous difficulties for local people's lives. Thus, it is crucial to have research for forecast the saline intrusion in Ham Luong River. Our aim was to develop mathematical models in order to forecast the saline intrusion in Ham Luong River, Ben Tre Province. Methods: The Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was built to forecast the weekly saline intrusion in Ham Luong River, which has been obtained from Ben Tre Province's Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center over eight years (from 2012 to 2019). Results: The saline concentration increased from January to March and then decreased from April to June. The highest salinity occurred in February and March while the lowest salinity was observed in early June. Moreover, the ARIMA technique provided an adequate predictive model for a forecast of the saline intrusion in An Thuan, Son Doc, and An Hiep station. However, the ARIMA model in My Hoa and Vam Mon might be improved upon by other forecasting methods. Conclusion: Our study suggested that the nonseasonal/seasonal ARIMA is an easy-to-use modeling tool for a quick forecast of the saline intrusion.

Malaria Disease Distribution in Sudan Using Time Series ARIMA Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ibrahim Musa
Keyword(s):  
African Country ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Training Set ◽  
The World ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Relationship

<p>Malaria is widely spread and distributed in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Sudan is a sub-Saharan African country that is highly affected by malaria with 7.5 million cases and 35,000 deaths every year. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the spread of malaria in the Sudan. The ARIMA model used malaria cases from 2006 to 2011 as a training set, and data from 2012 as a testing set, and created the best model fitted to forecast the malaria cases in Sudan for years 2013 and 2014. The ARIMAX model was carried out to examine the relationship between malaria cases and climate factors with diagnostics of previous malaria cases using the least Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) values. The results indicated that there were four different models, the ARIMA model of the average for the overall states is (1,0,1)(0,1,1)<sup>12</sup>. The ARIMAX model showed that there is a significant variation between the states in Sudan.</p>

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