scholarly journals Risks of the saltwater intrusion in the SaiGon, DongNai rivers in the context of climate change and sea level rise

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 102-112
Author(s):  
Tuan Ngoc Le ◽  
Kim Thi Tran ◽  
Phung Ky Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Saltwater Intrusion ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Pump Station ◽  
Gis Methods ◽  
Important Basis

This work aimed to assess the risk of the saltwater intrusion (SI) in main rivers in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the context of climate change by 2100 under scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. By modeling and GIS methods, results showed that SI has been increasing and moving upstream. Differences in the salinity between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios could be only visible from the middle to the end of the 21st century. In Saigon river, for RCP4.5, corresponding to 2025, 2030, 2050, and 2100, the salt line of 0.25‰ would be 0.25km, 1.6 km, 4.09km and 6.22km, respectively from Hoa Phu pump station as compared to that of 0.75 km; 1.6km; 4.6 km and 8.6 km, respectively for RCP8.5. In Dong Nai river, from Hoa An pump station, the corresponding figures would be 3.7km; 4.9km; 7.7km; 11.7km according to RCP4.5 and 3.7km, 4.9 km, 8.1km, 12.6km according to RCP8.5. The research results provide an important basis for planning suitable adaptation solutions, ensuring local activities and production.

scholarly journals Risks of inundation by tide in Ho Chi Minh City in the context of climate change and sea level rise

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 182-191
Author(s):  
Le Ngoc Tuan ◽  
Tran Thi Kim ◽  
Nguyen Ky Phung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Flooded Area ◽  
Gis Methods ◽  
Important Basis

This work aimed to assess the risk of inundation by tide in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the context of climate change by 2100 under scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. By modeling and GIS methods, results showed the southern area suffered the most, especially in CanGio, NhaBe and BinhChanh districts. By 2050, the inundated area in these localities would be approximately 3518ha, 677ha, 1576ha under RCP4.5 and 3561ha, 709ha, 1618ha under RCP8.5. The corresponding figures at the end of this century would be 12246ha, 2085ha, 3724ha under RCP4.5, and 14713ha, 2320ha, 4355ha under RCP8.5. This work also simulated the case of considering some flood control projects, thereby, tidal flooding in HCMC would be reduced, especially in BinhChanh, NhaBe, and District 7. In 2025 and 2100 (RCP8.5), as compared with those in the former case (without works), flooded area in NhaBe would decrease 16ha and 3.21ha, respectively. The corresponding figures for Binh Chanh would be 8.71ha and 1.62ha; and for District 7 would be 6.22ha and 2.35ha. The research results provide an important basis for planning suitable adaptation solutions, contributing to sustainable development goals of the local.

scholarly journals Sea level rise scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City in the context of the climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 184-191
Author(s):  
Tuan Ngoc Le ◽  
Thinh Nam Ngo ◽  
Phung Ky Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Water Level Data ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Important Basis

This work aimed to develope sea level rise (SLR) scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) to 2100, corresponding to the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 and the approach mentioned in the AR5 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) through SIMCLIM software, and the local water level data (updated to 2015). The results showed that the SLR in the coastal area of HCMC increased gradually over the years as well as the increase in greenhouse gas scenarios. In the period of 2025-2030, SLR would increase relatively equally among RCP scenarios. SLR in 2030 would increase about 12cm as compared to sea level in the period of 1986-2005 in all RCP scenarios. By 2050, the average SLR for the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 would be 21 cm, 21 cm, 22 cm, and 25 cm, respectively. The corresponding figures for 2100 would bee 43 cm, 52 cm, 54 cm, and 72 cm, respectively. The research results provide an important basis for calculations and assessments of impact and vulnerability due to the climate change to socio-economic development in HCMC.

Assessments of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts on Flows and Saltwater Intrusion in the Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

APAC 2019 ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 1367-1374
Author(s):  
Nguyen Mai Dang ◽  
Le Ngoc Vien ◽  
Nguyen Bach Tung ◽  
Tran Anh Duong ◽  
Thanh Duc Dang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Saltwater Intrusion ◽  
Sea Level Rise Impacts ◽  
And Sea Level

scholarly journals Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert L.A. Vermeersen ◽  
Aimée B.A. Slangen ◽  
Theo Gerkema ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Kim M. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change

AbstractRising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque Lozano ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mean Sea Level

<p>Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.</p><p>Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.</p><p>In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.</p>

scholarly journals Research on 3D technology to build a flood model based on webGIS at Ho Chi Minh city

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-88
Author(s):  
Long Thanh Do ◽  
Binh Thai Tran ◽  
Trung Dinh Tran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Visual Information ◽  
3D Model ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
3D Technology ◽  
Flood Model

Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam was published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2012. According to the scenarios, when sea level rise by 1m, over 20% of Ho Chi Minh City will become flood risk area affecting more than half million people (7% of the city’s population). This urgent problem affecting so many people like that but accessing to this information of the inhabitants is very limited. Therefore, the research Using the 3D technology to build flood model on WebGIS helps to show visually water level, flood position and the risk area affected in different water level. The research did not analyze the aspects of climate change, just used the results of the scenarios combining with 3D model technology on WebGIS to build an application. The result is not only the tool to help local people to access easily with the visual information about water level but also the reference for relating research and applications.

scholarly journals Mathematical model in assesment of saltwater intrusion in Saigon – Dong Nai river system (Southern Vietnam) due to sea level rise

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 94-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thong Chi Ho ◽  
Ngo Van Dau ◽  
Giang Song Le ◽  
Oanh Thi Phi Tran
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Saltwater Intrusion ◽  
River System ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
Water Regulation ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

SaiGon –DongNai (SG-DN) river system plays a vital role in developing the southern key economic triangle including Ho Chi Minh City, DongNai and BinhDuong provinces. Saltwater intrusion results from many factors and complex movements in SG–DN river system, in the midst of which are sea level rise and water regulation of upstream reservoirs. Theses causes have gradually changed the hydraulic regimes of the river system. As a result, saltwater intrusion has become seriously. In this article, the authors used mathematical models to investigate the change of saltwater boundary of the river system before and after the impact of sea level rise and the regulatory regime of the reservoirs. The findings contributed to the predicted scenarios where sea level rise and salinity boundary could be controlled through the regulation of upstream reservoirs.

scholarly journals Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1311-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kay ◽  
J. Caesar ◽  
J. Wolf ◽  
L. Bricheno ◽  
R. J. Nicholls ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
The Ganges

A hydrodynamic model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to explore increasing frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta over the 21st century.

scholarly journals Establishing vulnerability indicators to inundation in the context of the climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-166
Author(s):  
Tuan Ngoc Le ◽  
Phi Thi Yen Le ◽  
Bang Van Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Financial Infrastructure ◽  
Important Basis

Flooding is a concern phenomenon, especially in the context of climate change (CC) and sea level rise. This work aimed to establish indicators used to assess vulnerability (V) due to inundation on the basis of considering the exposure (E), sensitivity (S) and adaptive capacity (AC) of a system. By literature review, data analysis, and expert methods, 33 indicators for assessing vulnerability due to inundation were established, including 4 E, 11 S (divided into 4 groups: society, economic, environment, and land use), and 18 AC indicators (divided into 4 groups: human, financial, infrastructure, and society). This work resulted in an important basis for comprehensive evaluation of vulnerability due to inundation in the context of CC and proposing suitable solutions.

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