scholarly journals LOGIKA FUZZY DALAM TEKNIK PERAMALAN SECARA STATISTIK

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Deddy Barnabas Lasfeto

Selama ini, metode peramalan secara konvensional yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi. Oleh karena itu, dicoba untuk dibandingkan kinerja metode konvensionil dalam hal ini analisis regresi dengan metode sistem cerdas, dalam hal ini adalah logika fuzzy. Dengan dapat  dianalisisnya kinerja kedua sistem peramalan tersebut, maka user dapat memilih metode yang  mana yang sebaiknya digunakan jika melakukan suatu proses peramalan. Tujuan dalam penelitian ini adalah membandingkan kinerja dari fuzzy logic dan regresi dalam analisis peramalan suatu variabel forcastum dari satu atau lebih variabel bebas (independent variable). Input yang diperlukan yang sesuai yaitu mengisi ukuran range dan memilih type fungsi keanggotaan input X1, X2, X3, …., Xn serta parameter yang diperlukan. Hal serupa juga dilakukan untuk variabel tak bebas Y. Hal yang sama input X1, X2 dan Y untuk menentukan peramalan dengan regresi berganda. Input X1, X2 dan Y secara simulasi akan ditampilkan. Untuk Melihat kinerja secara keseluruhan dalam teknik peramalan Untuk regresi berganda ini, baik secara fuzzy maupun dengan teknik konvensional maka, dihitung nilai kesalahan rata-rata yang berdsarkan kesalahan relative masing-masing y Untuk setiap input data. Dari hasil analisis ini, diperoleh bahwa pada regresi berganda, nilai kesalahan relative rata-rata pada metode Fuzzy sedikit lebih besar dibandingkan dengan metode regresi konvensional, yakni sebesar 3%. Dapat dikatakan bahwa Metode regresi konvensional lebih baik dibandingkan dengan metode fuzzy dalam tekni peramalan ini.

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weijie Zuo ◽  
Haiwen Yuan ◽  
Yuwei Shang ◽  
Yingyi Liu ◽  
Tao Chen

This paper presents a new method for calculating the insulation health index (HI) of oil-paper transformers rated under 110 kV to provide a snapshot of health condition using binary logistic regression. Oil breakdown voltage (BDV), total acidity of oil, 2-Furfuraldehyde content, and dissolved gas analysis (DGA) are singled out in this method as the input data for determining HI. A sample of transformers is used to test the proposed method. The results are compared with the results calculated for the same set of transformers using fuzzy logic. The comparison results show that the proposed method is reliable and effective in evaluating transformer health condition.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  

Fuzzy Logic has found nowadays many applications to almost all sectors of human activity, withfuzzy control being one of the most important such applications. A control system regulates the behavior of adevice or another system with the help of a feedback controller. A fuzzy control system is a control system thatanalyses the input data in terms of variables which take continuous values in the interval [0, 1]. The presentarticle studies in detail the operation of fuzzy control systems and illustrates it by presenting an exampleof controlling a building’s central heating boiler.


Author(s):  
M. Mohammadian

Systems such as robotic systems and systems with large input-output data tend to be difficult to model using mathematical techniques. These systems have typically high dimensionality and have degrees of uncertainty in many parameters. Artificial intelligence techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms and evolutionary algorithms have created new opportunities to solve complex systems. Application of fuzzy logic [Bai, Y., Zhuang H. and Wang, D. (2006)] in particular, to model and solve industrial problems is now wide spread and has universal acceptance. Fuzzy modelling or fuzzy identification has numerous practical applications in control, prediction and inference. It has been found useful when the system is either difficult to predict and or difficult to model by conventional methods. Fuzzy set theory provides a means for representing uncertainties. The underlying power of fuzzy logic is its ability to represent imprecise values in an understandable form. The majority of fuzzy logic systems to date have been static and based upon knowledge derived from imprecise heuristic knowledge of experienced operators, and where applicable also upon physical laws that governs the dynamics of the process. Although its application to industrial problems has often produced results superior to classical control, the design procedures are limited by the heuristic rules of the system. It is simply assumed that the rules for the system are readily available or can be obtained. This implicit assumption limits the application of fuzzy logic to the cases of the system with a few parameters. The number of parameters of a system could be large. The number of fuzzy rules of a system is directly dependent on these parameters. As the number of parameters increase, the number of fuzzy rules of the system grows exponentially. Genetic Algorithms can be used as a tool for the generation of fuzzy rules for a fuzzy logic system. This automatic generation of fuzzy rules, via genetic algorithms, can be categorised into two learning techniques, supervised and unsupervised. In this paper unsupervised learning of fuzzy rules of hierarchical and multi-layer fuzzy logic control systems are considered. In unsupervised learning there is no external teacher or critic to oversee the learning process. In other words, there are no specific examples of the function to be learned by the system. Rather, provision is made for a task-independent measure of the quality or representation that the system is required to learn. That is the system learns statistical regularities of the input data and it develops the ability to learn the feature of the input data and thereby create new classes automatically [Mohammadian, M., Nainar, I. and Kingham, M. (1997)]. To perform unsupervised learning, a competitive learning strategy may be used. The individual strings of genetic algorithms compete with each other for the “opportunity” to respond to features contained in the input data. In its simplest form, the system operates in accordance with the strategy that ‘the fittest wins and survives’. That is the individual chromosome in a population with greatest fitness ‘wins’ the competition and gets selected for the genetic algorithms operations (cross-over and mutation). The other individuals in the population then have to compete with fit individual to survive. The diversity of the learning tasks shown in this paper indicates genetic algorithm’s universality for concept learning in unsupervised manner. A hybrid integrated architecture incorporating fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm can generate fuzzy rules for problems requiring supervised or unsupervised learning. In this paper only unsupervised learning of fuzzy logic systems is considered. The learning of fuzzy rules and internal parameters in an unsupervised manner is performed using genetic algorithms. Simulations results have shown that the proposed system is capable of learning the control rules for hierarchical and multi-layer fuzzy logic systems. Application areas considered are, hierarchical control of a network of traffic light control and robotic systems. A first step in the construction of a fuzzy logic system is to determine which variables are fundamentally important. Any number of these decision variables may appear, but the more that are used, the larger the rule set that must be found. It is known [Raju, S., Zhou J. and Kisner, R. A. (1990), Raju G. V. S. and Zhou, J. (1993), Kingham, M., Mohammadian, M, and Stonier, R. J. (1998)], that the total number of rules in a system is an exponential function of the number of system variables. In order to design a fuzzy system with the required accuracy, the number of rules increases exponentially with the number of input variables and its associated fuzzy sets for the fuzzy logic system. A way to avoid the explosion of fuzzy rule bases in fuzzy logic systems is to consider Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic Control (HFLC) [Raju G. V. S. and Zhou, J. (1993)]. A learning approach based on genetic algorithms [Goldberg, D. (1989)] is discussed in this paper for the determination of the rule bases of hierarchical fuzzy logic systems.


2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-140
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Kala ◽  
Abayomi Omishore ◽  
Libor Puklický

This paper presents a fuzzy-logic-based approach to the definition of buckling length evoked by the uncertainty of joint stiffness and boundary conditions for the member support. The example demonstrates a lucid and specific application of fuzzy sets in modelling uncertainties in design. To carry out analysis, the extension principle in the form of α-cuts was used. Buckling lengths were analysed utilizing stability solution according to the second-order theory. The beam finite element method with the shape functions of sin and sinh was utilized in the analysis taking into account valuable information on the uncertainties of input data.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-139
Author(s):  
Farouki Dinda Rassarandi ◽  
Bungaran Roy Satria Tambunan

Banjir merupakan suatu bencana yang dapat menimbulkan kerugian dan kerusakan di berbagai bidang, khususnya infrastruktur. Salah satu upaya untuk mencegah dan mengurangi dampak dari bencana banjir yaitu dengan pembuatan simulasi melalui pemodelan spasial dalam bentuk peta element at risk. Pada pembuatan peta element at risk, input data berupa peta yang diunduh dari Open Street Map yang berisikan kenampakan alam maupun infrastruktur dari simulasi bencana yang dibuat menggunakan logika Fuzzy. Penerapan logika Fuzzy digunakan untuk menginterpretasikan statemen yang samar dari persentase area bangunan yang terdampak pada setiap klasifikasi area luapan banjir menjadi sebuah pengertian yang logis dalam pengklasifikasian kerusakan “Berat’, “Sedang” dan “Ringan”. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi bencana banjir yang telah dilakukan, didapati bahwa jumlah bangunan yang terkena dampak bencana banjir luapan Sungai Air Bengkulu adalah sebanyak 37 bangunan “Rusak Berat’, 216 “Rusak Sedang’ dan 329 “Rusak Ringan’, dengan jumlah korban jiwa terdampak sebanyak 2.328 jiwa.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-207
Author(s):  
Mohammad Adib ◽  
Lis Diana Mustafa ◽  
Nugroho Suharto

Jangkrik adalah jenis serangga yang unik, memiliki suara khas dan aktif pada malam hari, jangkrik banyak dibudidayakan oleh masyarakat karena dapat menjadi penompang perekonomian masyarakat baik untuk pakan binatang piaraan,campuran pakan ternak,bahan tambahan pangan hingga campuran kosmetik. Aspek yang perlu di perhatikan dalam pembudidayaan jangkrik yaitu faktor lingkungan yang mempengaruhi hidup dan pertumbuhan jangkrik sehari-hari adalah dari sumber nutrisi,suhu dan kelembapan.Maka dari itu dibuatlah alat “Telecontrolling Pada Kandang Jangkrik Berbasis IoT (Internet of Things)”Alat ini menggunakan sensor DHT22 dan RTC untuk mengukur suhu dan kelembapan didalam kandang jangkrik dan RTC untuk mendeteksi waktu. Input data sensor akan diolah oleh ESP32 yang merupakan System on Chip dengan Wi-Fi dan Bluetooth, kemudian di deteksi oleh Fuzzy Logic untuk menentukan output pengaktifannya dan kapan ternak jangkrik waktunya panen akan dikirim melalui aplikasi telegram.Hasil perancangan sistem untuk kontrol dan monitoring berhasil diterapkan pada kandang jangkrik dengan berdasarkan suhu, kelembapan dan waktu. Sistem dapat mengirimkan notifikasi output dan respon sesuai dengan kondisi yang telah ditentukan dengan aplikasi telegram dan penyimpanan data pada website. Pengujian akurasi sensor mendapatkan hasil presentasi ketelitian yang cukup akurat, yaitu pada rata-rata presentase akurasi suhu mendapat milai 98% dan pada kelembapan mendapatkan nilai 97%, dan Pengujian hasil presentase akurasi pada sistem dan simulasi fuzzy dengan menggunakan aplikasi telegram dan matlab mendapatkan nilai presentase akurasi 31,66%.


2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 12002
Author(s):  
Inna Chaikovska ◽  
Pavlo Hryhoruk ◽  
Maksym Chaikovskyi

The article proposes an economic-mathematical model for determining a comprehensive risk assessment of the investment project of the enterprise which are based on the approaches of A. Nedosekin. The model is built using fuzzy logic and takes into account the probability of occurrence of each of the identified risks and the level of impact of each of them on the project. The probability of risk is set by experts in the form of points and converted into linguistic terms, and the level of influence of each of them on the project – the ratio of benefits and is determined using Fishburne scales. The proposed Project Risk Model consists of the following stages: formation of initial data using expert opinions; construction of a hierarchical project risk tree; determination of weight coefficients (Fishburne weights) of project risks; selection and description of membership function and linguistic variables; conversion of input data provided by experts from a score scale into linguistic terms; recognition of qualitative input data on a linguistic scale; determination of a complex indicator of investment project risks; interpretation of a complex indicator. The developed model allows managing the risks of the project to maximize the probability of its successful implementation, to compare alternative projects and choose less risky, to minimize the level of unforeseen costs of the project.


2012 ◽  
pp. 253-261
Author(s):  
M. Mohammadian

Systems such as robotic systems and systems with large input-output data tend to be difficult to model using mathematical techniques. These systems have typically high dimensionality and have degrees of uncertainty in many parameters. Artificial intelligence techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms and evolutionary algorithms have created new opportunities to solve complex systems. Application of fuzzy logic [Bai, Y., Zhuang H. and Wang, D. (2006)] in particular, to model and solve industrial problems is now wide spread and has universal acceptance. Fuzzy modelling or fuzzy identification has numerous practical applications in control, prediction and inference. It has been found useful when the system is either difficult to predict and or difficult to model by conventional methods. Fuzzy set theory provides a means for representing uncertainties. The underlying power of fuzzy logic is its ability to represent imprecise values in an understandable form. The majority of fuzzy logic systems to date have been static and based upon knowledge derived from imprecise heuristic knowledge of experienced operators, and where applicable also upon physical laws that governs the dynamics of the process. Although its application to industrial problems has often produced results superior to classical control, the design procedures are limited by the heuristic rules of the system. It is simply assumed that the rules for the system are readily available or can be obtained. This implicit assumption limits the application of fuzzy logic to the cases of the system with a few parameters. The number of parameters of a system could be large. The number of fuzzy rules of a system is directly dependent on these parameters. As the number of parameters increase, the number of fuzzy rules of the system grows exponentially. Genetic Algorithms can be used as a tool for the generation of fuzzy rules for a fuzzy logic system. This automatic generation of fuzzy rules, via genetic algorithms, can be categorised into two learning techniques, supervised and unsupervised. In this paper unsupervised learning of fuzzy rules of hierarchical and multi-layer fuzzy logic control systems are considered. In unsupervised learning there is no external teacher or critic to oversee the learning process. In other words, there are no specific examples of the function to be learned by the system. Rather, provision is made for a task-independent measure of the quality or representation that the system is required to learn. That is the system learns statistical regularities of the input data and it develops the ability to learn the feature of the input data and thereby create new classes automatically [Mohammadian, M., Nainar, I. and Kingham, M. (1997)]. To perform unsupervised learning, a competitive learning strategy may be used. The individual strings of genetic algorithms compete with each other for the “opportunity” to respond to features contained in the input data. In its simplest form, the system operates in accordance with the strategy that ‘the fittest wins and survives’. That is the individual chromosome in a population with greatest fitness ‘wins’ the competition and gets selected for the genetic algorithms operations (cross-over and mutation). The other individuals in the population then have to compete with fit individual to survive. The diversity of the learning tasks shown in this paper indicates genetic algorithm’s universality for concept learning in unsupervised manner. A hybrid integrated architecture incorporating fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm can generate fuzzy rules for problems requiring supervised or unsupervised learning. In this paper only unsupervised learning of fuzzy logic systems is considered. The learning of fuzzy rules and internal parameters in an unsupervised manner is performed using genetic algorithms. Simulations results have shown that the proposed system is capable of learning the control rules for hierarchical and multi-layer fuzzy logic systems. Application areas considered are, hierarchical control of a network of traffic light control and robotic systems. A first step in the construction of a fuzzy logic system is to determine which variables are fundamentally important. Any number of these decision variables may appear, but the more that are used, the larger the rule set that must be found. It is known [Raju, S., Zhou J. and Kisner, R. A. (1990), Raju G. V. S. and Zhou, J. (1993), Kingham, M., Mohammadian, M, and Stonier, R. J. (1998)], that the total number of rules in a system is an exponential function of the number of system variables. In order to design a fuzzy system with the required accuracy, the number of rules increases exponentially with the number of input variables and its associated fuzzy sets for the fuzzy logic system. A way to avoid the explosion of fuzzy rule bases in fuzzy logic systems is to consider Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic Control (HFLC) [Raju G. V. S. and Zhou, J. (1993)]. A learning approach based on genetic algorithms [Goldberg, D. (1989)] is discussed in this paper for the determination of the rule bases of hierarchical fuzzy logic systems.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 307
Author(s):  
Nasron Nasron ◽  
Suroso Suroso ◽  
Astriana Rahma Putri

Soil moisture and temperature are parameters needed by plants in terms of plant growth. In determining soil moisture and temperature according to plants, a control system is needed. This control system uses the Raspberry Pi as an input data processor to output. This control system is designed using fuzzy logic as a decision-making method to maintain soil moisture and temperature that is good for plants. Fuzzy logic is one of the decision support systems that is suitable to be applied to the control system. Fuzzy logic consists of fuzzyfication, formation of fuzzy rules and defuzification. This fuzzy logic uses two inputs and two outputs. The two inputs are soil moisture level and temperature degree. The desired output is the time needed to maintain soil moisture and temperature to keep it in accordance with the needs of the plant


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