scholarly journals PERAMALAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE (ARMA)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-74
Author(s):  
Cheryl Ayu Melyani ◽  
Atsila Nurtsabita ◽  
Ghaitsa Zahira Shafa ◽  
Edy Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Data Line ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Forecasting Inflation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Forecasting Analysis ◽  
Graphic Pattern

A good inflation rate for a country is an inflation rate that has a low and stable value so that able to realize fast and controlled economic growth. Forecasting can be one of the steps that can provide an overview of the value of inflation in Indonesia for the government or related agencies to formulate and maintain inflation stability in Indonesia. In this study, a forecasting analysis was carried out to determine the prediction of inflation in Indonesia in 2021 using the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) method. From the results of the research that has been done, the best model to predict this case is using the ARMA model (3,0,0) because it produces the smallest AIC value of 0.2373 and the smallest RMSE of 7.81. From this model, the results of forecasting inflation rates for the months of May to December 2021 are also obtained with a range of 0.1% to 0.3%. The graphic pattern of the predicted results follows the actual data line pattern, which means that this model is good to use. Abstrak Tingkat inflasi yang baik bagi suatu negara adalah tingkat inflasi yang memiliki nilai yang rendah dan stabil, sehinga mampu mewujudkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat dan terkendali. Peramalan dapat menjadi salah satu langkah yang dapat memberikan gambaran nilai inflasi di Indonesia bagi pemerintah atau badan yang terkait untuk menyusun dan mempertahankan kestabilan inflasi di Indonesia. Dalam penelitian ini, dilakukan analisis peramalan untuk mengetahui prediksi angka inflasi di Indonesia tahun 2021 menggunakan metode Autoregresif Moving Average (ARMA). Dari hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan, model terbaik untuk meramalkan kasus ini yaitu menggunakan model ARMA (3,0,0) karena menghasilkan nilai AIC paling kecil yaitu 0.2373 dan RMSE terkecil sebesar 7.81. Dari model tersebut juga didapatkan hasil peramalan angka inflasi untuk bulan Mei hingga Desember 2021 dengan kisaran 0.1% hingga 0.3%. Pola grafik dari hasil prediksi mengikuti pola garis data aktual yang berarti bahwa model ini baik untuk digunakan.

Application of Kalman Filtering for Natural Gray Image Denoising

2011 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 92-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Kai Huang ◽  
De Hui Liu ◽  
Xing Wang Zhang ◽  
Ling Ying Hou
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Image Denoising ◽  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Adaptive Method ◽  
Natural Image ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Processing Step ◽  
Reduction Methods

Image denoising is one of the classical problems in digital image processing, and has been studied for nearly half a century due to its important role as a pre-processing step in various image applications. In this work, a denoising algorithm based on Kalman filtering was used to improve natural image quality. We have studied noise reduction methods using a hybrid Kalman filter with an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model that the coefficients of the AR models for the Kalman filter are calculated by solving for the minimum square error solutions of over-determined linear systems. Experimental results show that as an adaptive method, the algorithm reduces the noise while retaining the image details much better than conventional algorithms.

scholarly journals Testing and modelling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity of streamflow processes

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Wang ◽  
P. H. A. J. M Van Gelder ◽  
J. K. Vrijling ◽  
J. Ma
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Arch Effect ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Residual Series

Abstract. Conventional streamflow models operate under the assumption of constant variance or season-dependent variances (e.g. ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) models for deseasonalized streamflow series and PARMA (Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average) models for seasonal streamflow series). However, with McLeod-Li test and Engle's Lagrange Multiplier test, clear evidences are found for the existence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (i.e. the ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) effect), a nonlinear phenomenon of the variance behaviour, in the residual series from linear models fitted to daily and monthly streamflow processes of the upper Yellow River, China. It is shown that the major cause of the ARCH effect is the seasonal variation in variance of the residual series. However, while the seasonal variation in variance can fully explain the ARCH effect for monthly streamflow, it is only a partial explanation for daily flow. It is also shown that while the periodic autoregressive moving average model is adequate in modelling monthly flows, no model is adequate in modelling daily streamflow processes because none of the conventional time series models takes the seasonal variation in variance, as well as the ARCH effect in the residuals, into account. Therefore, an ARMA-GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error model is proposed to capture the ARCH effect present in daily streamflow series, as well as to preserve seasonal variation in variance in the residuals. The ARMA-GARCH error model combines an ARMA model for modelling the mean behaviour and a GARCH model for modelling the variance behaviour of the residuals from the ARMA model. Since the GARCH model is not followed widely in statistical hydrology, the work can be a useful addition in terms of statistical modelling of daily streamflow processes for the hydrological community.

scholarly journals A Fuzzy Set-Valued Autoregressive Moving Average Model and Its Applications

Symmetry ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dabuxilatu Wang ◽  
Liang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Arma Models ◽  
Linguistic Data ◽  
Series Analysis

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are important in many fields and applications, although they are most widely applied in time series analysis. Expanding the ARMA models to the case of various complex data is arguably one of the more challenging problems in time series analysis and mathematical statistics. In this study, we extended the ARMA model to the case of linguistic data that can be modeled by some symmetric fuzzy sets, and where the relations between the linguistic data of the time series can be considered as the ordinary stochastic correlation rather than fuzzy logical relations. Therefore, the concepts of set-valued or interval-valued random variables can be employed, and the notions of Aumann expectation, Fréchet variance, and covariance, as well as standardized process, were used to construct the ARMA model. We firstly determined that the estimators from the least square estimation of the ARMA (1,1) model under some L2 distance between two sets are weakly consistent. Moreover, the justified linguistic data-valued ARMA model was applied to forecast the linguistic monthly Hang Seng Index (HSI) as an empirical analysis. The obtained results from the empirical analysis indicate that the accuracy of the prediction produced from the proposed model is better than that produced from the classical one-order, two-order, three-order autoregressive (AR(1), AR(2), AR(3)) models, as well as the (1,1)-order autoregressive moving average (ARMA(1,1)) model.

A Novel Adaptive Integrated Navigation Filtering Method Based on ARMA/GARCH Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 462-463 ◽  
pp. 259-266
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Hong Lei Qin ◽  
Li Cong
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Integrated Navigation ◽  
Conditional Mean ◽  
Filtering Method ◽  
Residual Series

This paper proposes a novel adaptive integrated navigation filtering method based on autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The main idea in this study is to employ ARMA/GARCH model to estimate statistical characteristics of filtering residual series online, namely, the conditional mean and conditional standard deviation, and then the filter parameters are adaptively adjusted based on forecasted results of ARMA/GARCH model in order to improve the reliability of the system when there are abnormal disturbance and other uncertain factors in real condition. On this basis, experiment is used to verify the validity of the method. The simulation results demonstrate that the ARMA/GARCH model can well capture the unusual condition of GPS receiver output, and this adaptive filtering method can effectively improve the reliability of the system.

Parameter Identification of Time Varying System Using Basic Function Expansion

2011 ◽  
Vol 403-408 ◽  
pp. 2800-2804
Author(s):  
En Wei Chen ◽  
Yi Min Lu ◽  
Zheng Shi Liu ◽  
Yong Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Efficiency ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Basic Function ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Varying Parameters ◽  
Time Varying Parameters ◽  
Time Invariant

Time-varying parameters identification in linear system is considered, which can be changed into time-invariant coefficient polynomials after Taylor expansion. Using response data to establish the time-varying autoregressive moving average (TV-ARMA) model, then utilizing least-square algorithm to obtain time-invariant coefficients of time-varying parameters. According to error analysis, to reduce errors and improve accuracy, the estimation time is divided into small internals and the above method is used in each interval. Simulation shows that, under certain error condition, the time-varying parameters obtained by the method have good agreement with the theoretical values; the measures taken have strong anti-interference and high efficiency.

scholarly journals Minimum Message Length in Hybrid ARMA and LSTM Model Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Fang ◽  
David L. Dowe ◽  
Shelton Peiris ◽  
Dedi Rosadi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Minimum Message Length ◽  
Message Length ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

We investigate the power of time series analysis based on a variety of information-theoretic approaches from statistics (AIC, BIC) and machine learning (Minimum Message Length) - and we then compare their efficacy with traditional time series model and with hybrids involving deep learning. More specifically, we develop AIC, BIC and Minimum Message Length (MML) ARMA (autoregressive moving average) time series models - with this Bayesian information-theoretic MML ARMA modelling already being new work. We then study deep learning based algorithms in time series forecasting, using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and we then combine this with the ARMA modelling to produce a hybrid ARMA-LSTM prediction. Part of the purpose of the use of LSTM is to seek capture any hidden information in the residuals left from the traditional ARMA model. We show that MML not only outperforms earlier statistical approaches to ARMA modelling, but we further show that the hybrid MML ARMA-LSTM models outperform both ARMA models and LSTM models.

scholarly journals The Effect of Government Bonds, Inflation, And Exchange Rate in Achieving SDGs

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-135
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rafi Bakri ◽  
Anastasya Utami
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Government

This study aims to examine the effect of bonds, inflation rates, and exchange rates on economic growth to achieve Indonesia's 2030 sustainable development goals, namely reducing government and poverty. This study uses a quantitative regression analysis method with a path analysis approach to determine the direct or indirect effect between variables. The variables used are published values, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, poverty rates, and poverty in Indonesia in 2016-2020. Based on the path analysis, the coefficient of determination of 60.72% indicates that the diversity of the data of 60.72% can be explained in the model. Government Bonds have a direct and significant effect on the economic growth of -1,243. Government obligations indirectly affect the level of movement and mission of 1,098 and 1,128, respectively. The inflation rate directly affects the rate of economic growth of 0.712. The inflation rate has no direct effect on the movement level and poverty of -0.6294 and -0.6644. The exchange rate has no significant direct or indirect effect on economic growth, movement, and poverty. This study concludes that the government needs to control inflation and inflation so that the economy can be achieved and reduce inflation and poverty. Keywords: Government Bond, Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Economic Growth, SDG’s

scholarly journals Groundwater Depth Forecasting Using a Coupled Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Manfei Zhang ◽  
Yimeng Wang ◽  
Xiao Wang ◽  
Weibo Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Groundwater Depth ◽  
Irrigation District ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Canal Irrigation ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
Bp Model

Accurate and reliable prediction of groundwater depth is a critical component in water resources management. In this paper, a new method based on coupling wavelet decomposition method (WA), autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and BP neural network (BP) model for groundwater depth forecasting applications was proposed. The relative performance of the proposed coupled model (WA-ARMA-BP) was compared to the regular autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and BP models for annual average groundwater depth forecasting using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV). The variables used to develop and validate the models were average groundwater depth data recorded from 1981 to 2010 in Jinghui Canal Irrigation District in the northwest of China. It was found that the WA-ARMA-BP model provided more accurate annual average groundwater depth forecasts compared to the ARIMA and BP models. The results of the study indicate the potential of the WA-ARMA-BP model in forecasting nonstationary time series such as groundwater depth.

The limitations and usefulness of streamflow generation methods: a case study

1980 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-191
Author(s):  
W. J. Stolte
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Physical World ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Streamflow Generation ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Hydrologic Design

Probabilistic models have become important hydrologic tools. However, increasing model complexity makes the connections between the model and the physical world more and more vague. This can lead to a de-emphasis of engineering judgment, since model validity is easily assumed when even partial verification must await future occurrences. A simple autoregressive model was used to generate stochastic flow sequences for the dam and reservoir being constructed on the Red Deer River in Alberta. The results from this model were compared with those obtained from a more complex autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Both models have similar deficiencies. It is concluded that since stochastic generation can never represent future conditions with certainty, the common practice of basing the hydrologic design of reservoirs on actually recorded data is usually the most valid procedure. However, stochastic streamflow generation can be used to give valuable probabilities of reservoir storage failure.

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