scholarly journals The Effect of Government Bonds, Inflation, And Exchange Rate in Achieving SDGs

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-135
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rafi Bakri ◽  
Anastasya Utami
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Government

This study aims to examine the effect of bonds, inflation rates, and exchange rates on economic growth to achieve Indonesia's 2030 sustainable development goals, namely reducing government and poverty. This study uses a quantitative regression analysis method with a path analysis approach to determine the direct or indirect effect between variables. The variables used are published values, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, poverty rates, and poverty in Indonesia in 2016-2020. Based on the path analysis, the coefficient of determination of 60.72% indicates that the diversity of the data of 60.72% can be explained in the model. Government Bonds have a direct and significant effect on the economic growth of -1,243. Government obligations indirectly affect the level of movement and mission of 1,098 and 1,128, respectively. The inflation rate directly affects the rate of economic growth of 0.712. The inflation rate has no direct effect on the movement level and poverty of -0.6294 and -0.6644. The exchange rate has no significant direct or indirect effect on economic growth, movement, and poverty. This study concludes that the government needs to control inflation and inflation so that the economy can be achieved and reduce inflation and poverty. Keywords: Government Bond, Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Economic Growth, SDG’s

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF IMPORT FACILITIES FOR EXPORT PURPOSES, EXCHANGE RATES, AND INFLATION ON EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND TEXTILE PRODUCTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-38
Author(s):  
Mohammad Fachrudin ◽  
Indah Puspitasari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Textile Industry ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Fiscal Incentives ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The Government

The Import Facility for Export Purpose (KITE) is the Government's effort to encourage export performance. Companies that receive the KITE facility obtain fiscal incentives and export their product to import raw materials. The textile and textile product (TPT) industry is a strategic industry and has been determined by the Government as a pilot industry in the Roadmap for Making Indonesia 4.0. The textile industry relies on imported raw materials, so that the KITE facility is needed to encourage growth and increase product competitiveness in the international market. This study aims to determine the effect of the KITE facility, the rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, and the inflation rate on Indonesia's textile exports. We used a sample of 37 industrial textile companies in Indonesia that received the KITE facility  2016 to 2018. This study uses a panel data regression model with independent variables: KITE facility, exchange rates, inflation, and exported dependent variable. The results showed that the KITE facility had a positive and significant effect on the textile industry exports. In contrast, the exchange rate and inflation had a negative and significant impact on Indonesia's textile industry exports. This study's implications for the Government can be used to formulate a national strategy to increase export.

scholarly journals The Role and Impact of Remittances on the Economic Growth - Kosovo Case Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
MSc. Jeton Zogjani ◽  
Dr.Sc. Myrvete Badivuku-Pantina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Watson Statistic

In this research paper the role and impact of remittances on the economic growth of Kosovo in the recent years (2008 - 2013) through remittances, inflation rate, real effective exchange rate (REER) as independent variables and economic growth as depend variable is analyzed. The secondary data are used which are taken from international and domestic institutions which are analyzed through STATA software (an econometric and statistical program).The reason for writing is that in 2013 the total value of remittances in Kosovo was 620.8 million € and in 2011 Kosovo was among the top 10 countries with the highest level of remittances. The main arguments used in this research paper are: how do remittances affect in overall the economy? What is the impact of remittances on businesses? How do we use it for family consumption? In the research methodology are used secondary data and all of them are analyzed by STATA software which helps in calculation of OLS method of regression, descriptive statistic and correlation matrix.Also this paper research findings show us that if we refer to the result of variables that are included in the paper though OLS methods, the remittances (β1= - 0.017) and the exchange rate (β3= - 0.322) have negative impact and nonsignificant (T < 2) effect on economic growth but the inflation rate has positive (β2= 0.245) and significant (T > 2) effect on economic growth and the coefficient of determination (R²) is 84% then the coefficient of Durbin Watson Statistic (DW) is 2.11, it means there is no autocorrelation.

scholarly journals Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Modelling of the Interaction among Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Nigeria (1981–2017)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
G. L. Tuaneh ◽  
L. Wiri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
National Income ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Government

The interdependence among oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates, and their response to shocks, was a cause of concern. Unrestricted Vector Autoregression (UVAR) was employed to analyse this interactions as well as to investigate the pattern of causality among the study variable. Annual data spanning from 1981 to 2017 was sourced from the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Pre-estimation analysis showed that all variables were integrated of order one 1(1), and there no cointegrating relationship. The inverse root of AR characteristic polynomial showed a stable VAR model. All lag length selection criteria chose a lag length of 1. The UVAR estimates and the test of significance particularly the granger causality test indicated significant influence and uni-directional effect from oil price to exchange rates. The Wald statistics, showed significant own shocks, and the impulse response showed that all variables were instantaneously affected by own shocks. Exchange rate was instantaneously affected by oil price; however, it ruled out the response in inflation rate to contemporaneous shocks in oil price. The variance decomposition further showed that at least 93.1%, 97.1% and 92.4% of the impulse response in oil price, exchange rate, and inflation rate respectively were from own shocks in the long run. The post estimation analysis showed that the VAR model was multivariate normal, the residual was homoscedastic, and there was no serial autocorrelation. It was recommended that the government should diversify the national income stream and consider policies that will control inflation.

scholarly journals Determinants of Inflation in Palestine

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-93
Author(s):  
Bahaaeddin Alareeni ◽  
Nariman Qdeh ◽  
Mohammed Lulu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Palestinian Economy

This study aimed at identifing the most important determinants and economic factors affecting inflation rates in the Palestine during the period (2000-2014), in order to help in reducing its effects on the Palestinian economy. The descriptive and analytical approach was used, by selecting a set of variables that were expected to have an impact on the inflation rates in the Palestinian economy, as these factors were such as economic growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate, money supply, wages, inflation rate in Israel, and the global inflation rate. Two statistical models were developed for West Bank and Gaza Strip separately, based on quarter time series data for determinants of inflation in the Palestinian economy for the period from 2000-2014. The results showed the significatnt impact of: (the exchange rate, the Israeli inflation rate, the economic growth rate) on the inflation rate in the West Bank. In addition, it showed the significant effect of: (global inflation rate, unemployment rate, the economic growth rate) on the inflation rate in Gaza Strip. The other variables: credit facility, wage rate and interest rate were statistically insignificant. In light of this, the study recommended the necessity of issuing a national currency to reduce the losses of the Palestinian economy due to the absence of the national currency, as well as the pressure of imports and trying to find local alternatives by supporting the national product, as well as the need to review trade and economic policies between the Palestinian Authority and Israel to serve the development of the Palestinian economy.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

scholarly journals Albania's Monetary Policy and the Basic Indicators that Effect the Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Bernard Balla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Consumer Prices

Macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the economy by achieving their goal of price stability, full employment and economic growth. Price stability is the responsibility of macroeconomic policies that are developed to maintain a low inflation rate, contribute to the solidity of the domestic product and maintain an exchange rate that can be predictable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Albania's monetary policy by highlighting the main indicators that can be used as a measurement of the efficiency of this policy in the economic development. The literature review shows that there are many attitudes regarding the factors that need to be taken into consideration when analyzing monetary policies, including the elements of fiscal policies. In the Albanian economy, the prices and the level of inflation are the most important aspects. The Bank of Albania uses the inflation targeting regime, considering that the main indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy is the deviation of inflation forecasted in the medium term by its target level. In numerical terms, the bank intends to maintain its annual growth in consumer prices at the level of 3%. According to the latest reports published by the Bank of Albania in 2019, monetary policy continues to contribute positively to a financial environment with a low interest rate and an annual inflation rate of 2%. Although the inflation rate hit the lowest value of 1.8 % in 2018, a balanced rate was achieved through the reduction of interest rates and risk premiums in financial markets and, more recently, through the tightening of the exchange rate. These monetary conditions are appropriate to support the growth of domestic demand and the strengthening of inflationary pressures.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M S Eichenbaum ◽  
B K Johannsen ◽  
S T Rebelo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates

Abstract This article studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about inflation-targeting countries. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate is a poor predictor of future inflation rates. We estimate a medium-size, open-economy DSGE model that accounts quantitatively for these facts as well as other empirical properties of real and nominal exchange rates. The key estimated shocks that drive the dynamics of exchange rates and their covariance with inflation are disturbances to the foreign demand for dollar-denominated bonds.

scholarly journals The Influence of Economic Growth on the Degree of Autonomy of the Regions and the Absorption of Labor and Social Welfare: Regencies and Cities of Maluku Province

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 234
Author(s):  
Nahu Daud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Well Being ◽  
County Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City

<p>This research aims (1) to analyze and test the influence of economic growth on the degree of autonomy the area in County Government and city of Maluku Province, (2) Analyze and test the influence of economic growth on the absorption of labor on County Government and city of Maluku province (3) Analyze and test the influence of economic growth on the welfare of society at the County Government and the city of Maluku province (4) Analyze and test the influence of degree of autonomous region of absorption of labor on County Government and city of Maluku province, (5) Analyze and test the influence of the degree of autonomy the area of social welfare in the Government District and the city of Maluku province (6) Analyze and test the influence of absorption of labor against the welfare of the community on County Government and City Maluku province. The approach used is the analysis of Path Analysis, intended to answer a relationship direct or indirect causal model has been developed on the basis of theoretical consideration of researchers and certain knowledge. In addition to the causal relationship is based on the data, also based on knowledge, the formulation of hypotheses and logical analysis, so that it can be called path analysis can be used to test a set of causal hypotheses as well as to interpret these relationships.</p><p>The results showed (1) economic growth positively and significantly influence the degree of autonomy of the region. These results lend support to the hypothesis of one stating that economic growth was a significant influence on the degree of autonomy of the region. (2) The influential economic growth positively and significantly to labor absorption. These results lend support to the hypothesis of two stating that the influential economic growth dramatically to labor absorption. (3) Economic growth positively and significantly influences the well-being of the community. These results provide support for the three hypotheses which state that the economic growth affects significantly to the well-being of society. (4) The degree of autonomy the positive and significant effect of absorption of labor. (5) The degree of autonomy to the region in a positive and significant effect on the welfare of society. (6) The positive impact of labor absorption and significantly to the well-being of society. (7) The results of the discussion to confirm that economic growth affectsconsiderably to the well-being of the community through the degree of autonomy of the regions and the absorption of labor. Significant influence occurs because the existence of a direct relationship with the role of the community.</p>

Inflationary Thresholds, Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Two West African Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 20160042 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Threshold Range

This paper examines the role of inflationary threshold effects in the finance-growth relationship for Ghana and Nigeria. Ghana and Nigeria are relatively homogenous in terms of financial development, economic growth, and inflationary history and therefore provide an acceptable choice for this empirical analysis. Due to lack of data availability, the sample spans the period 1964–2011 for Ghana and 1961–2011 for Nigeria. Using appropriately specified threshold regressions, we found inflationary thresholds in both countries during the study periods. Specifically, the inflationary threshold range for Ghana is 10.73 %–29.83 %. For Nigeria, the inflationary threshold range is 10.07 %–19.25 %. By estimating the threshold regressions, we found financial development to have positive and significant effect on economic growth during low and moderate inflationary regimes; and insignificant effect on growth during high inflationary regimes, for both countries. In particular, financial development impact greatly on growth in Ghana when the rate of inflation is below a threshold of 10.73 % but dissipates when inflation rate reaches and exceeds 29.83 %. Similarly, financial development impact greatly on growth in Nigeria when the rate of inflation is below a threshold of 10.07 % but dissipates when inflation rate reaches and exceeds 19.25 %. The results imply that policymakers in these countries should take inflation into account when devising policies to promote financial development with the aim of generating economic growth. For without low or moderate inflation rates, such policies will not achieve their intended purposes.

Domestic Exchange Rates and Regional Economic Growth in the United States, 1899–1908: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 1010-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronnie J. Phillips ◽  
Harvey Cutler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations

This article examines one feature of the pre—Federal Reserve financial system that has not been widely researched: the market for bank drafts (the “domestic exchanges”). Though the exchanges existed for nearly a century, critics argued that exchange rate fluctuations exacerbated financial panics. We find, using cointegration analysis over the period from 1899 to 1908, that differences in growth rates across regions caused predictable movements in rates. We conclude that the exchanges promoted efficiency in the payments system. This supports the view that the private sector might have developed a unified national system had the Fed not abolished the exchanges.

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