In this paper, the author states and proves the hypothesis that negative
demographic trends in the Republic of Serbia, and in Southeast Europe as a
whole, can have a significant influence on the pursuing of the foreign policy
of both Serbia and its neighboring countries. According to the anticipations
of the relevant institutions and individuals-scientists, in the forthcoming
decades, Serbia and other Southeast European countries (except the areas
inhabited by the Albanians, although they themselves have also deeply stepped
into the process of the so-called demographic transition) may expect to face
the continuation of the unfavorable demographic trends - a decrease in the
number of the inhabitants and an increasingly older population. The main
reasons for the stated are the falling rate of natality and migrations of an
economic character of the Western developed countries. Due to that,
differently from the previous historical periods, it may be expected that the
Balkan countries will, for the first time, change their foreign?policy focus
- from managing, acquiring and controlling territories (geopolitics) towards
managing, acquiring and controlling the population (demo politics). In other
words, Serbia and the Balkan countries can, for the first time, be more
focused on their own selves and their most critical
demographic-political-safety aspect - their decreasing number of inhabitants
and increasingly older populations - and less on, historically observed, the
traditional goal - the enlargement and control of the territory. This means
that, with an increasingly smaller and increasingly older population, the
armed conflicts whose basic ambitions would be to change the borders would
gradually become increasingly less socially accepted. The author does not
consider that the territorial integrity ceases to be an important priority
for each one of the Southeast European countries and that geopolitics is
completely losing its significance in the Balkans, but he rather asserts that
the geopolitical goals that would imply changing the borders are losing their
attractiveness in the societies that are rapidly losing their populations.
The only exception in that sense is the Albanian ethnic community, whose
demographic characteristics partly differ from the Balkan and, generally,
European trends. Simultaneously, faced with a decrease in and the aging of
their populations, the Balkan countries could find the common basis for a
coordinated foreign and safety policy and share costs and resources in facing
different safety challenges.
FOREIGN POLICY ALIGNMENT OF THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES WITH THE EU’S RUSSIA POLICY SINCE THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA
