scholarly journals Measures of the Output Gap in Turkey: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

2019 ◽  
pp. 238-251
Author(s):  
İlyas Şıklar ◽  
Suzan Şahin
Keyword(s):  
Structural Model ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Filtering Method ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Main Target ◽  
The Difference

The output gap indicating the difference between the actual and potential levels of output is a critical factor for estimating the inflationary pressures in an economy. If the main target of a central bank is ensuring and maintaining the price stability, estimating the output gap with a minimum error is crucial for the efficiency of the monetary policy. In this study, we estimated the output gap in Turkey for the 2002-2014 period by using four different methods. Two of these estimation methods are purely statistical (Linear Trend and Hodrick-Presscot (HP) Filtering) while the others are integrated with the relations suggested by the economic theory (multivariate structural model and structural autoregressive (SVAR) model). By using empirical decision criteria common in the literature, we conclude that SVAR model produces the most reliable output gap estimates to explain inflationary pressures in Turkey. However, we also found that the Hodrick-Presscot filtering method is the second best methodology in the output gap estimation process.

scholarly journals The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahsan Ul Haq Satti ◽  
Wasim Shahid Malik
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measurement ◽  
Real Time Data ◽  
Final Data ◽  
The Difference

Most research on monetary policy assumes availability of information regarding the current state of economy, at the time of the policy decision. A key challenge for policy-makers is to find indicators that give a clear and precise signal of the state of the economy in real time—that is, when policy decisions are actually taken. One of the indicators used to asses the economic condition is the output gap; and the estimates of output gap from real time data misrepresents the true state of economy. So the policy decisions taken on the basis of real time noisy data are proved wrong when true data become available. Within this context we find evidence of wrong estimates of output gap in real time data. This is done by comparing estimates of output gap based on real time data with that in the revised data. The quasi real time data are also constructed such that the difference between estimates of output gap from real time data and that from quasi real time data reflects data revision and the difference between estimates of output gap from final data and that from quasi real time data portray other revisions including end sample bias. Moreover, output gap is estimated with the help of five methods namely the linear trend method, quadratic trend method, Hordrick-Prescott (HP) filter, production function method, and structural vector autoregressive method. Results indicate that the estimates of output gap in real time data are different from what have been found in final data but other revisions, compared to data revisions, are found more significant. Moreover, the output gap measured using all the methods, except the linear trend method, appropriately portray the state of economy in the historical context. It is also found that recessions can be better predicted by real time data instead of revised data, and final data show more intensity of recession compared with what has been shown in real time data. JEL Classification: E320 Keywords: Data Uncertainty, Measurement Uncertainty, Output Gap, Business Cycle, Economic Activity

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

Rhyl Field: developing a new structural model by integrating basic geological principles with advanced seismic imaging in the Irish Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 355-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gavin Ward ◽  
Dean Baker
Keyword(s):  
Structural Model ◽  
Seismic Imaging ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Irish Sea ◽  
Depth Migration ◽  
Processing Power ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Automated Quality Control

AbstractA new model of compression in the Upper Triassic overlying the Rhyl Field has been developed for the Keys Basin, Irish Sea. This paper highlights the significance of the overburden velocity model in revealing the true structure of the field. The advent of 3D seismic and pre-stack depth migration has improved the interpreter's knowledge of complex velocity fields, such as shallow channels, salt bodies and volcanic intrusions. The huge leaps in processing power and migration algorithms have advanced the understanding of many anomalous features, but at a price: seismic imaging has always been a balance of quality against time and cost. As surveys get bigger and velocity analyses become more automated, quality control of the basic geological assumptions becomes an even more critical factor in the processing of seismic data and in the interpretation of structure. However, without knowledge of both regional and local geology, many features in the subsurface can be processed out of the seismic by relying too heavily on processing algorithms to image the structural model. Regrettably, without an integrated approach, this sometimes results in basic geological principles taking second place to technology and has contributed to hiding the structure of the Rhyl Field until recently.

scholarly journals A Crook is a Crook . . . But is He Still a Crook Abroad? On the Effect of Immigration on Destination-Country Corruption

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugen Dimant ◽  
Margarete Redlin ◽  
Tim Krieger
Keyword(s):  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Destination Country ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Econometric Methodology ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Method Of Moments Estimator ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper analyzes the impact of migration on destination-country corruption levels. Capitalizing on a comprehensive dataset consisting of annual immigration stocks of OECD countries from 207 countries of origin for the period 1984-2008, we explore different channels through which corruption might migrate. We employ different estimation methods using fixed effects and Tobit regressions in order to validate our findings. Moreover, we also address the issue of endogeneity by using the Difference- Generalized Method of Moments estimator. Independent of the econometric methodology, we consistently find that while general migration has an insignificant effect on the destination country’s corruption level, immigration from corruption-ridden origin countries boosts corruption in the destination country. Our findings provide a more profound understanding of the socioeconomic implications associated with migration flows.

scholarly journals IMPLICATION OF ALTERNATIVE MINIMAL CLINICALLY IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE THRESHOLD ESTIMATION METHODS ON TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 371-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Brixner ◽  
Eli O. Meltzer ◽  
Kellie Morland ◽  
Cathryn A. Carroll ◽  
Ullrich Munzel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Minimal Clinically Important Difference ◽  
Nasal Symptom ◽  
Healthcare Research ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Difference Threshold ◽  
Threshold Estimation ◽  
Clinically Important Difference ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Objectives: Various minimal clinically important difference (MCID) threshold estimation techniques have been applied to seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR). The objectives of this study are to (i) assess the difference in magnitude of alternative SAR MCID threshold estimates and (ii) evaluate the impact of alternative MCID estimates on health technology assessment (HTA).Methods: Data describing change from baseline of the reflective Total Nasal Symptom Score (rTNSS) for four intranasal SAR treatments were obtained from United States Food and Drug Administration-approved prescribing information. Treatment effects were then compared with anchor-based MCID thresholds derived by Barnes et al. and thresholds obtained from an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) panel.Results: The change in rTNSS score from baseline, represented as the average of the twice-daily recorded scores of the rTNSS, was -2.1 (p < .001) for azelastine hydrochloride 0.10%, 1.35 (p = .014) for ciclesonide, and -1.47 (p < .001) for fluticasone furoate. The change in the rTNSS score from baseline, represented by sum of the AM and PM score, was -2.7 for MP-AzeFlu (p < .001). The rTNSS change from baseline for each product was compared with anchor-based MCID threshold and the AHRQ panel estimates. Comparison of the observed treatment effect to the anchor-based and AHRQ panel MCID thresholds results in different conclusions, with clinically important differences being inferred when anchor-based estimates serve as the reference point.Conclusion: The AHRQ panel MCID threshold for the rTNSS was twelve times larger than the anchor-based estimates resulting in conflicting recommendations on whether different SAR treatments provide clinically meaningful benefit.

scholarly journals Stripped-envelope core-collapse supernova 56Ni masses

2020 ◽  
Vol 641 ◽  
pp. A177 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Meza ◽  
J. P. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Power Source ◽  
Radioactive Material ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Core Collapse ◽  
Core Collapse Supernova ◽  
Explosion Mechanism ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Uniform Manner ◽  
Lower Limits

Context. The mass of synthesised radioactive material is an important power source for all supernova (SN) types. In addition, the difference of 56Ni yields statistics are relevant to constrain progenitor paths and explosion mechanisms. Aims. Here, we re-estimate the nucleosynthetic yields of 56Ni for a well-observed and well-defined sample of stripped-envelope SNe (SE-SNe) in a uniform manner. This allows us to investigate whether the observed hydrogen-rich–stripped-envelope (SN II–SE SN) 56Ni separation is due to real differences between these SN types or because of systematic errors in the estimation methods. Methods. We compiled a sample of well-observed SE-SNe and measured 56Ni masses through three different methods proposed in the literature: first, the classic “Arnett rule”; second the more recent prescription of Khatami & Kasen (2019, ApJ, 878, 56) and third using the tail luminostiy to provide lower limit 56Ni masses. These SE-SN distributions were then compared to those compiled in this article. Results. Arnett’s rule, as previously shown, gives 56Ni masses for SE-SNe that are considerably higher than SNe II. While for the distributions calculated using both the Khatami & Kasen (2019, ApJ, 878, 56) prescription and Tail 56Ni masses are offset to lower values than “Arnett values”, their 56Ni distributions are still statistically higher than that of SNe II. Our results are strongly driven by a lack of SE-SN with low 56Ni masses, that are, in addition, strictly lower limits. The lowest SE-SN 56Ni mass in our sample is of 0.015 M⊙, below which are more than 25% of SNe II. Conclusions. We conclude that there exist real, intrinsic differences in the mass of synthesised radioactive material between SNe II and SE-SNe (types IIb, Ib, and Ic). Any proposed current or future CC SN progenitor scenario and explosion mechanism must be able to explain why and how such differences arise or outline a bias in current SN samples yet to be fully explored.

Sociological Versus Metascientific Views of Risk Assessment

1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah G. Mayo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Major Theme ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Sociological View

In this chapter I shall discuss what seems to me to be a systematic ambiguity running through the large and complex risk-assessment literature. The ambiguity concerns the question of separability: can (and ought) risk assessment be separated from the policy values of risk management? Roughly, risk assessment is the process of estimating the risks associated with a practice or substance, and risk management is the process of deciding what to do about such risks. The separability question asks whether the empirical, scientific, and technical questions in estimating the risks either can or should be separated (conceptually or institutionally) from the social, political, and ethical questions of how the risks should be managed. For example, is it possible (advisable) for risk-estimation methods to be separated from social or policy values? Can (should) risk analysts work independently of policymakers (or at least of policy pressures)? The preponderant answer to the variants of the separability question in recent riskresearch literature is no. Such denials of either the possibility or desirability of separation may be termed nonseparatist positions. What needs to be recognized, however, is that advocating a nonseparatist position masks radically different views about the nature of risk-assessment controversies and of how best to improve risk assessment. These nonseparatist views, I suggest, may be divided into two broad camps (although individuals in each camp differ in degree), which I label the sociological view and the metascientific view. The difference between the two may be found in what each finds to be problematic about any attempt to separate assessment and management. Whereas the former (sociological) view argues against separatist attempts on the grounds that they give too small a role to societal (and other nonscientific) values, the latter (metascientific) view does so on the grounds that they give too small a role to scientific and methodological understanding. Examples of those I place under the sociological view are the cultural reductionists discussed in the preceding chapter by Shrader-Frechette. Examples of those I place under the metascientific view are the contributors to this volume themselves. A major theme running through this volume is that risk assessment cannot and should not be separated from societal and policy values (e.g., Silbergeld's uneasy divorce).

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission through Shadow Banks

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2379-2420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kairong Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Shadow Banks ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Abstract I find that shadow bank money creation significantly expands during monetary-tightening cycles. This “shadow banking channel” offsets reductions in commercial bank deposits and dampens the impact of monetary policy. Using a structural model of bank competition, I show that the difference in depositor clienteles quantitatively explains banks’ different responses to monetary policy. Facing a more yield-sensitive clientele, shadow banks are more likely to pass through rate hikes to depositors, thereby attracting more deposits when the Federal Reserve raises rates. My results suggest that monetary tightening could unintentionally increase financial fragility by driving deposits into the uninsured shadow banking sector. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Blind Estimation Methods for BPSK Signal Based on Duffing Oscillator

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 6412
Author(s):  
Ke Wang ◽  
Xiaopeng Yan ◽  
Zhiqiang Zhu ◽  
Xinhong Hao ◽  
Ping Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Random Sequence ◽  
Duffing Oscillator ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Blind Estimation ◽  
Shift Keying ◽  
Force Signal ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Output Characteristics ◽  
Binary Phase Shift Keying ◽  
Array Synchronization

To realize the blind estimation of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) signal, this paper describe a new relational expression among the state of Duffing oscillator excited by BPSK signal, the pseudo-random code of BPSK signal, and the difference frequency between the to-be-detect signal and internal drive force signal of Duffing oscillator. Two output characteristics of Duffing oscillators excited by BPSK signals named implied periodicity and pilot frequency array synchronization are presented according to the different chaotic states of Duffing oscillator. Then two blind estimation methods for the carrier frequency and pseudo-random sequence of the BPSK signal are proposed based on these two characteristics, respectively. These methods are shown to have a significant effect on the parameter estimation of BPSK signals with no prior knowledge, even at very low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs).

Pressures toward Uniformity in Groups: A Dynamic Structural Equation Model

1976 ◽  
Vol 24 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 9-24
Author(s):  
James G. Anderson ◽  
Mark Triplett
Keyword(s):  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Structural Equation Model ◽  
Difference Equations ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Multiple Equilibrium ◽  
Computer Simulation Model

In this paper a dynamic structural equation model consisting of a set of difference equations has been constructed in order to examine the process by which groups generate pressures toward uniformity. The model is based on Festinger's hypotheses about communication resulting from such pressures. Parameters of the model have been estimated from a consideration of one of the equilibrium conditions of the model. Hypothetical time paths that describe the dynamic behaviour of the system have been generated by a series of computer simulation runs. These graphs describe the process by which group cohesiveness and discrepancy in opinions among group members adjust to each other over time. The model has lead to a number of major insights into this dynamic process. The results of the simulation indicate the existence of multiple equilibrium points for the system and that the relevance of the issue for the group's functioning is a critical factor in determining the rate at which a new equilibrium is reached once the initial equilibrium is disturbed. Groups can and do attempt to influence members in order to achieve uniformity of opinions, beliefs, values and behaviour (Asch, 1951; Deutsch and Gerard, 1955; Scott 1965). Cartwrght and Zander (1968) in reviewing the theoretical explanations of why groups attempt to achieve uniformity point out four functions that such pressure serves; namely goal attainment (Festinger, 1950), group maintenance (Stock, Whitman and Lieberman, 1958), the development of social reality through consensus (Festinger, 1954; Schachter, 1959), and achievement of consensus concerning group relations with its social surroundings (Burns, 1955; Cohen, 1955; Yinger, 1950). As a result discrepancies in opinions, beliefs, values and behaviour, give rise to pressures on members to communicate with one another. Festinger (1950) in his investigations of informal social communications has enumerated a set of hypotheses concerning such communication that results from group pressures to achieve uniformity. Several of his hypotheses are concerned with members of the group as a whole and form the basis of one model by Simon and Guetzkow (1955) involving a set of differential equations. In the following section of this paper Festinger's verbal theory will be recast as a causal model (Blalock, 1969). A dynamic structural equation model will be developed consisting of a set of difference equations. This structural model will form the basis of a computer simulation model which will be validated with data from studies by Festinger, Schachter and Back (1950), Festinger and Thibaut (1951) and Back (1951).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document