scholarly journals The Empirical Evaluation of Both the Internal and the International Fisher Effects for the Economy of Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (515) ◽  
pp. 279-285
Author(s):  
I. V. Hrabynska ◽  
◽  
O. Y. Pylypenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
The Real ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Multifactor Analysis ◽  
Transactional Costs

The article works out the essence of theoretical concepts of both the internal and the international effects named after I. Fisher. A review of professional publications gave reason to conclude that in the countries with higher levels of marketing of the economy, the strength of these effects is higher, which indicates a higher level of integration of their national financial markets into the global financial market. Based on the results of an econometric analysis, the authors have concluded about the relative weakness of the internal Fisher Effect and, consequently, on the need to use multifactor analysis in the study of the dynamics of the real interest rate in Ukraine. The empirical evaluation of the dependencies of monetary variables in the model describing the international Fisher Effect gave reason to conclude about the relative weakness of this effect, in particular for the currency pair of «dollar – hryvnia», and therefore, the differential of national interest rates is not sufficient basis for forecasting the dynamics of the foreign exchange rate. The article uses a number of statistical criteria and tests to examine the used econometric model, which gave grounds to conclude about its adequacy and statistical significance of variables. The authors elaborated the factors that have a restrictive impact on the international movement of capital and therefore can cause differences in the real interest rates, especially in emerging markets, namely: asymmetry of market information, psychological barriers, national legislative restrictions that quota the international capital flows, high transactional costs, peculiarities of the tax system, currency risks, political risks, etc. The thesis that the presence of weak Fisher Effects for the Ukrainian economy is one of the reasons for the low effectiveness of the interest channel of the transfer mechanism of monetary policy in Ukraine is substantiated.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals INTEREST RATES, FISHER EFFECT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY, 1989-2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-100
Author(s):  
Selahattin GÜR?? ◽  
Burak GÜR?? ◽  
Turgut ÜN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Test Validity ◽  
Threshold Cointegration ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Fisher Hypothesis

This paper investigates the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis in Turkey coveringthe period 2003 – 2012. To test validity of Fisher Hypothesis, this paper uses anAutoregressive Distributed Lag test for threshold cointegration recently introduced in theliterature by Li and Lee (2010). The empirical results which are obtained from this paperindicate that Fisher hypothesis is valid for Turkey, meaning nominal interest rates wouldbe an important leading indicator for inflation.

scholarly journals Investment Decision In Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Indonesia*

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
The Real ◽  
Internal Capital ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study are: First, to analyze is there any significant influence among debt ratio, internal capital, cash flow, inflation expectations and the expectations of rupiah exchange rate against the decisions of businessmen in the real sector to invest or not to invest; Second, to analyze the impact of the variables perception mortgage interest rates, perceptions of bank regulation, internal capital and cash flow on debt ratio of the real sector (leverage). Investment decision model is estimated using logit models. The results of regression estimates the overall good for business and risk analysis for financial risk shows that almost all explanatory variables in the equation are statistically significant. There are three variables have a positive influence on the investment decisions taken by the businesses i.e. the debt ratio, cash flow and exchange rate expectations.

scholarly journals Nocturnal Glycemic Control with New Insulin Glargine 300 U/mL

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neng Chun Yu
Keyword(s):  
Blood Glucose ◽  
Insulin Glargine ◽  
Insulin Therapy ◽  
Real World ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Treatment Phase ◽  
Glycemic Variability ◽  
The Real ◽  
Nocturnal Hypoglycemia ◽  
Glucose Levels

Insulin glargine 300 U/mL (Gla-300) is a new generation basal insulin product that has been demonstrated to have more stable pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics than insulin glargine 100 U/mL (Gla-100). To evaluate the real-world benefits of Gla-300 in reducing nocturnal fluctuations in blood glucose levels and nocturnal hypoglycemia, 10 Taiwanese patients using Gla-100 for insulin therapy were switched to Gla-300 and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) was applied at nighttime to monitor changes to nocturnal glycemic variability parameters. Glycemic variability parameters measured to assess between- and within-night glycemic variability included mean 6-hour nocturnal (00:00–6:00 AM) glucose levels, standard deviation (SD), and coefficient of variance (CV) of mean nocturnal glucose levels and mean glucose excursion (MAGE). In this study, Gla-300 demonstrated comparable glycemic efficacy to Gla-100 and the potential to further reduce nocturnal hypoglycemia risk. Overall, nocturnal glycemic variability parameters measured during the Gla-300 treatment period were numerically smaller than those measured during the Gla-100 treatment phase although statistical significance was not reached. In terms of within-night glucose management, SD and CV values of mean nocturnal glucose levels were found to be statistically lower during the Gla-300 treatment phase than the Gla-100 treatment phase on nights individuals displayed normal blood glucose level readings at the beginning of the night. In summary, this study represents the first of its kind from Taiwan to evaluate the real-world clinical benefits of switching Taiwanese diabetes patients from Gla-100 to Gla-300 insulin therapy in reducing nighttime glucose variability by means of CGM.

Testing fisher effect for the USA: application of nonlinear ARDL model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-304
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Representation ◽  
Fisher Equation ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Usa

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear representation of the Fisher equation. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear ARDL model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for the 10-year US Government bond rates over the period of 1985M1-2017M10. Findings The empirical findings indicate that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is a more predominant arbiter in the determination of interest rates during periods of declining inflation rates than periods of rising inflation rates. This finding may allow the FED to apply more proactive and prudent monetary policy. Additionally, this study newly describes and introduces a different version of the partial Fisher effect and extends the Fisher equation to some degree in terms of the partial Fisher effect. Originality/value To the best the authors’ knowledge, this method is applied for the first time in testing the Fisher effect for the USA.

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