How to recognize cognitive biases in risk perception in case of disasters

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 286-292
Author(s):  
Satoru KIKUCHI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases

Cognitive Biases, Risk Perception, and Individual's Decision to Start a New Venture

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 14-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salma Zaiane ◽  
Fatma Ben Moussa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
New Venture ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship of overconfidence and illusion of control towards the start of new venture, taking in consideration the mediating role of risk perception in the context of Tunisia. This article examines students' responses to surveys based on a teaching case titled “Optical Distortion, Inc.” The authors tested hypotheses by correlation and regression analysis. The results show that the perception towards risk associated with new venture plays an important role in decision-making. Moreover, they find that overconfidence and illusion of control reduce risk perception associated to the decision to start a venture. While overconfidence directly affects the decision to start a venture and indirectly through its effect on reducing the risk perception, illusion of control has neither a direct nor an indirect impact on that. These results partially confirm those of Simon show that the mediation exists but partially.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Distress and Risk Perception Associated with COVID-19 in Vulnerable Groups

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9207
Author(s):  
Carmen Orte ◽  
Lidia Sánchez-Prieto ◽  
David Caldevilla Domínguez ◽  
Almudena Barrientos-Báez
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Brief Symptom Inventory ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Preventive Behavior ◽  
The Face ◽  
Coronavirus Infection

Preventive behavior developed by the population is essential in the face of the risk of coronavirus infection (COVID-19). However, preventive measures will depend on the risk perception acquired. In addition, lockdown can directly affect mental health, provoking distress. Distress could affect risk perception. This study’s objective was to analyze whether experiencing distress had an influence on risk perception with respect to vulnerable groups. The sample consisted of 806 participants. The study was conducted during the first week of lockdown declared by the Spanish Government. The Brief Symptom Inventory BSI-18 and a risk perception questionnaire about vulnerable groups was administered. The study revealed the appearance of distress in 9.6% of the sample (85.7% women). Experiencing distress influenced risk perception. This study’s main contribution is the link between experiencing distress and the risk perception with respect to vulnerable groups. Risk perception is relevant since it can influence how the population faces the pandemic. Transmission of accurate information could help to minimize the effect of certain cognitive biases that affect risk perception and foster preventive behavior.

The Effect of Risk Perception and Cognitive Biases on the Evaluation of Opportunity in Family and Non-Family Entrepreneurs: The Case of Tunisian Entrepreneurs

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (03) ◽  
pp. 281-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najoua Dali ◽  
Sana Harbi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Test Hypothesis ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Structural Regression ◽  
Opportunity Evaluation ◽  
The Law

This study uses cognitive biases to examine opportunity evaluation among family and non-family entrepreneurs, and investigated the effect of risk perception in this type of entrepreneurs. The aim of this paper is to examine empirically if family entrepreneurs differ in terms of risk perception and opportunity evaluation from non-family entrepreneurs. We use a sample of 144 established businesses to run both test hypothesis and regression analysis. Our results indicate that there is no significant difference between the two categories of entrepreneurs. The structural regression analysis suggests that risk perception mediates opportunity evaluation and that (i) the belief in the law of small numbers and (ii) the illusion of control decreases risk perception among entrepreneurs when evaluating an opportunity.

Cognitive biases, risk perception, and venture formation

2000 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Simon ◽  
Susan M. Houghton ◽  
Karl Aquino
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases

scholarly journals Risk Perceptions during COVID-19 Pandemic: Applying Knowledge on Public Compliance to Protective Measures during SARS to Understand Risk Communication

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. p1
Author(s):  
Xingrui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Pharmaceutical Treatment ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Public Risk

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has caused significant environmental and economic loss across the globe. The government’s promotion of non-pharmaceutical treatment such as social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing can be equally important in disease control compared to the conventional use of pharmaceutical treatment. Risk perception is often used as an important mechanism to understand an individual's compliance with these protective measures. The present article examines the application of previous knowledge about public risk perception, decision making, and behavioral change to the current global pandemic and evaluates the most effective way of governmental messaging. The article analyzes empirical research conducted during COVID-19 across the globe where risk perception is found to be a strong determinant of people’s adoption of public health behavior. Demographic factors can significantly alter people’s understanding of risk due to the variation of individualistic view and prosociality of each nation. Cognitive biases can also affect people’s efficacy beliefs and confidence levels in government which can shape their risk perception to a great extent as well. Combining studies on both SARS and COVID-19, we are able to employ past knowledge to draw conclusions on risk communication and governmental promotion of protective measures during the current global pandemic.

scholarly journals The Mediating Role of Risk Perception among Cognitive Biases towards Decision to Start a New Venture

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 88-95
Author(s):  
Maheen Butt ◽  
Nadia Jamil ◽  
Rabia Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
New Venture ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
The Relationship

The Objective of the study is to investigate the relationship of overconfidence bias and illusion of control bias towards the start of new venture, with the mediating role of risk perception in context of Pakistan. To understand the relationship, this study developed and tested hypothesis by correlation and regression analysis. This study’s sample consisted of 170 students pursuing a Masters of Business Administration. The students’ responses to a survey based on a case study regarding a decision to start a venture were examined. This study found illusion of control and risk perceptions have significant effect on decision to start new venture. Conversely, overconfidence bias has insignificant relationship with decision to start new venture. The positive and negative impact of biases and perceiving low levels of risk suggest the importance of exploring the area of venture formation. As this study has incorporated two biases but many other biases should also be considered that effect human decision making process like self-efficacy, availability heuristics, law of small numbers and escalation of commitment.

scholarly journals The role of media in community resilience: Hindsight bias in media narratives after the 2014 Genoa flood

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-151
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Bracco ◽  
Cinzia Modafferi ◽  
Luca Ferraris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Linear Chain ◽  
Hindsight Bias ◽  
Community Resilience ◽  
Chain Reactions ◽  
Cognitive Frames ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Media Narratives

Abstract Aim: A massive flood due to exceptional rainfalls devastated the town of Genoa on 9 October 2014. Media reports focused on the disaster, its causes and the political accountabilities. Reading facts after the event is commonly biased by the hindsight perspective and the aim of the paper is to investigate the amount and the potential effects of hindsight bias in terms of citizens risk perception and community resilience. Method: We performed a qualitative analysis of the narratives in the national and local news reports during the aftermath to investigate occurrences of a blaming attitude and cognitive biases. Results: The results showed a considerable amount of sentences that were focused on blaming the forecasters, the Civil Protection System, and the local administration. Many narratives were affected by hindsight bias and described the events as simple and linear chain reactions. This led to counterfactual biases, assuming that a simple intervention on a single factor could have prevented the tragic outcome. Conclusion: We claim that the biased nature of the media narratives could affect the citizens’ risk perception and their attitude towards the institutions, increasing their exposure to future flood-related threats. We propose the appropriate language would generate correct cognitive frames and, therefore, safer behaviour.

scholarly journals Behaviour change: insights for environmental policy making from social psychology and behavioural economics

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alana Cornforth
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Environmental Policy ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Behaviour Change ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Behavioural Economics ◽  
The Public

This paper surveys research on behaviour change and identifies ways that social psychology and behavioural economics can assist with environmental policy making. By understanding why and how people make decisions – and how decisions are affected by framing, habits, cognitive biases, and risk perception and interpretation – we can design policies that are more effective, less costly and more acceptable to the public. 

scholarly journals Behavioral Cost of Managerial Decisions Under Risk Perception and Culture: A Comparative Study Between the United States and Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110278
Author(s):  
Nishwa Iqbal Dar ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Zeeshan Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New York ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Overconfidence Bias

The study is an attempt to find the reasons for biased behavior of overconfident managers while making financial decisions on behalf of shareholders. The study further seeks the ways to resolve the problems faced by firms due to such biased decision-making. For this purpose, quantitative research method is used to uncover the new information for better understanding of study. The comparative analysis has been done through survey-based data collected from executives/managers of firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange. The results indicate that overconfidence bias plays a significant role in managerial decisions for Pakistan compared with U.S. managers. This study applied mediation and moderation tests and found the significant mediating role of risk perception for overconfidence bias and manager decisions. The study further checked moderating role of cultural value, that is, the role of uncertainty avoidance between overconfidence bias of managers and risk perception. Hence, the role of cognitive biases and bounded rationality is undeniable for managerial decision-making and ultimate behavioral cost that firms have to pay due to undesired outcomes of situations. Consequently, this study has reached to extract the hidden facts and solutions to the observed issues for developed and emerging economy’s firms through cultural differences.

scholarly journals Predictors of Social Distancing and Mask-Wearing Behavior: Panel Survey in Seven U.S. States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Plamen Nikolov ◽  
Andreas Pape ◽  
Ozlem Tonguc ◽  
Charlotte Williams
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Social Preferences ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Economic Preference ◽  
Transmission Speed

This paper presents preliminary summary results from a longitudinal study of participants in seven U.S. states during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to standard socio-economic characteristics, we collect data on various economic preference parameters: time, risk, and social preferences, and risk perception biases. We pay special attention to predictors that are both important drivers of social distancing and are potentially malleable and susceptible to policy levers. We note three important findings: (1) demographic characteristics exert the largest influence on social distancing measures and mask-wearing, (2) we show that individual risk perception and cognitive biases exert a critical role in influencing the decision to adopt social distancing measures, (3) we identify important demographic groups that are most susceptible to changing their social distancing behaviors. These findings can help inform the design of policy interventions regarding targeting specific demographic groups, which can help reduce the transmission speed of the COVID-19 virus.

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