scholarly journals Impact of Horizontal Grid Resolutions for Thunderstorms Simulation over Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
Md Joshem Uddin ◽  
MA Samad ◽  
MAK Mallik
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Pressure Area ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Strong Convection ◽  
Horizontal Grid

In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the physical and dynamical characteristics of three thunderstorms that occurred on 06 May 2017 over Mymensingh, Chuadanga, and Sylhet in Bangladesh by the WRF-ARW model of 5 and 10 km horizontal resolutions, and to find out the impacts of horizontal grid resolution for simulating thunderstorm events. The model was run for 48 h using global Final Analysis (FNL) data. Various meteorological parameters such as Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), wind pattern at several pressure levels, relative humidity, and radar reflectivity along with the atmospheric instability index are analyzed and compared with the observed data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The model has captured the low pressure area, the conjugation of easterly and westerly wind, the presence of strong convection, high magnitude of vertical wind shear, marked dry-line, updraft, and downdraft reasonably well for the finest grid resolution. But the convective available potential energy (CAPE) value is found almost similar near the places of occurrence for both resolutions. The model performance is found precisely well for the finest than that of coarse horizontal grid resolution. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 69(1): 43-51, 2021 (January)

scholarly journals Simulation of Thermodynamic Features of a Thunderstorm Event over Dhaka using WRF-ARW Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 131-145
Author(s):  
Md Mijanur Rahman ◽  
Md Abdus Samad ◽  
SM Quamrul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model

An attempt has been made to simulate the thermodynamic features of the thunderstorm (TS) event over Dhaka (23.81°N, 90.41°E) occurred from 1300 UTC to 1320 UTC of 4 April 2015 using Advanced Research dynamics solver of Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The model was run to conduct a simulation for 48 hours on a single domain of 5 km horizontal resolution utilizing six hourly Global Final Analysis (FNL) datasets from 0600 UTC of 3 April 2015 to 0600 UTC of 5 April 2015 as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Kessler schemes for microphysics, Yonsei University (YSU) scheme for planetary boundary layer (PBL) parametrization, Revised MM5 scheme for surface layer physics, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) for longwave radiation, Dudhia scheme for shortwave radiation and Kain–Fritsch (KF) scheme for cumulus parameterization were used. Hourly outputs produced by the model have been analyzed numerically and graphically using Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Deep analyses were carried out by examining several thermodynamic parameters such as mean sea level pressure (MSLP), wind pattern, vertical wind shear, vorticity, temperature, convective available potential energy (CAPE), relative humidity (RH) and rainfall. To validate the model performance, simulated values of MSLP, maximum and minimum temperature and RH were compared with observational data obtained from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Rainfall values were compared with that of BMD and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Based on the comparisons and validations, the present study advocates that the model captured the TS event reasonably well.GANIT J. Bangladesh Math. Soc.Vol. 37 (2017) 131-145

scholarly journals Numerical Simulation of Extreme Temperature (Heat Wave) in Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 44-54
Author(s):  
Md. Abdul Aziz ◽  
M. A. Samad ◽  
M. R. Hasan ◽  
M. N. U. Bhuiyan ◽  
M. A. K. Mallik
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Heat Wave Event ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Wave Event

Every year Bangladesh experiences different types of natural hazards and heat wave is one of them. In the present study, an advanced high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) numerical mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe heat wave event occurred during April over Bangladesh and eastern part of India. The model is integrated for 6 days starting from UTC of 19 April to UTC of 24 April 2016, on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution. For validation of the model performance, the model simulated results of temperature at 2 m height, relative humidity (RH), mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at UTC of 6 days are compared with the BMD observed data. And the results indicate that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the heat wave event with 6 days over Bangladesh.

scholarly journals The Climatology of Significant Tornadoes in the Czech Republic

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Rudolf Brázdil ◽  
Kateřina Chromá ◽  
Tomáš Púčik ◽  
Zbyněk Černoch ◽  
Petr Dobrovolný ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Daily Variation ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Severe Damage ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Individual Trees ◽  
Common Era

In the Czech Republic, tornadoes may reach an intensity of F2 and F3 on the Fujita scale, causing “considerable” to “severe” damage. Documentary evidence is sufficient to allow the creation of a chronology of such events, from the earliest recorded occurrence in 1119 CE (Common Era) to 2019, including a total of 108 proven or probable significant tornadoes on 90 separate days. Since only 11 significant tornadoes were documented before 1800, this basic analysis centers around the 1811–2019 period, during which 97 tornadoes were recorded. Their frequency of occurrence was at its highest in the 1921–1930, 1931–1940, and 2001–2010 decades. In terms of annual variations, they took place most frequently in July, June, and August (in order of frequency), while daily variation favored the afternoon and early evening hours. Conservative estimates of human casualties mention 8 fatalities and over 95 people injured. The most frequent types of damage were related to buildings, individual trees, and forests. Tornadoes of F2–F3 intensity were particularly associated with synoptic types characterized by airflow from the western quadrant together with troughs of low pressure extending or advancing over central Europe. Based on parameters calculated from the ERA-5 re-analysis for the period of 1979–2018, most of these tornadoes occurred over a wide range of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. The discussion herein also addresses uncertainties in tornado selection from documentary data, the broader context of Czech significant tornadoes, and the environmental conditions surrounding their origins.

scholarly journals Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part II: The Influence of a Strongly Warming Climate on Convective Environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3848-3868 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Allen ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Kevin J. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Eastern Australia

Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia was explored using two global climate models: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6), and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). These models have previously been evaluated and found to be capable of reproducing a useful climatology for the twentieth-century period (1980–2000). Analyzing the changes between the historical period and high warming climate scenarios for the period 2079–99 has allowed estimation of the potential convective future for the continent. Based on these simulations, significant increases to the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments will likely occur for northern and eastern Australia in a warmed climate. This change is a response to increasing convective available potential energy from higher continental moisture, particularly in proximity to warm sea surface temperatures. Despite decreases to the frequency of environments with high vertical wind shear, it appears unlikely that this will offset increases to thermodynamic energy. The change is most pronounced during the peak of the convective season, increasing its length and the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments therein, particularly over the eastern parts of the continent. The implications of this potential increase are significant, with the overall frequency of potential severe thunderstorm days per year likely to rise over the major population centers of the east coast by 14% for Brisbane, 22% for Melbourne, and 30% for Sydney. The limitations of this approach are then discussed in the context of ways to increase the confidence of predictions of future severe convection.

scholarly journals A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 914
Author(s):  
Tao Chen ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
South China ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Atmospheric Parameter ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Warm Sector

In view of the limited predictability of heavy rainfall (HR) events and the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the initiation and organization of the associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a composite analysis of 58 HR events over the warm sector (i.e., far ahead of the surface cold front), referred to as WSHR events, over South China during the months of April to June 2008~2014 is performed in terms of precipitation, large-scale circulations, pre-storm environmental conditions, and MCS types. Results show that the large-scale circulations of the WSHR events can be categorized into pre-frontal, southwesterly warm and moist ascending airflow, and low-level vortex types, with higher frequency occurrences of the former two types. Their pre-storm environments are characterized by a deep moist layer with >50 mm column-integrated precipitable water, high convective available potential energy with the equivalent potential temperature of ≥340 K at 850 hPa, weak vertical wind shear below 400 hPa, and a low-level jet near 925 hPa with weak warm advection, based on atmospheric parameter composite. Three classes of the corresponding MCSs, exhibiting peak convective activity in the afternoon and the early morning hours, can be identified as linear-shaped, a leading convective line adjoined with trailing stratiform rainfall, and comma-shaped, respectively. It is found that many linear-shaped MCSs in coastal regions are triggered by local topography, enhanced by sea breezes, whereas the latter two classes of MCSs experience isentropic lifting in the southwesterly warm and moist flows. They all develop in large-scale environments with favorable quasi-geostrophic forcing, albeit weak. Conceptual models are finally developed to facilitate our understanding and prediction of the WSHR events over South China.

scholarly journals A comparison of the performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
Daniel Goldberg ◽  
William H. Lipscomb
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Stability ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Fast Solvers ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Hybrid Solver ◽  
Constant Viscosity

Abstract. In the last decade, the number of ice-sheet models has increased substantially, in line with the growth of the glaciological community. These models use solvers based on different approximations of ice dynamics. In particular, several depth-integrated dynamics approximations have emerged as fast solvers capable of resolving the relevant physics of ice sheets at the continen- tal scale. However, the numerical stability of these schemes has not been studied systematically to evaluate their effectiveness in practice. Here we focus on three such solvers, the so-called Hybrid, L1L2-SIA and DIVA solvers, as well as the well-known SIA and SSA solvers as boundary cases. We investigate the numerical stability of these solvers as a function of grid resolution and the state of the ice sheet. Under simplified conditions with constant viscosity, the maximum stable timestep of the Hybrid solver, like the SIA solver, has a quadratic dependence on grid resolution. In contrast, the DIVA solver has a maximum timestep that is independent of resolution, like the SSA solver. Analysis indicates that the L1L2-SIA solver should behave similarly, but in practice, the complexity of its implementation can make it difficult to maintain stability. In realistic simulations of the Greenland ice sheet with a non-linear rheology, the DIVA and SSA solvers maintain superior numerical stability, while the SIA, Hybrid and L1L2-SIA solvers show markedly poorer performance. At a grid resolution of ∆x = 4 km, the DIVA solver runs approximately 15 times faster than the Hybrid and L1L2-SIA solvers. Our analysis shows that as resolution increases, the ice-dynamics solver can act as a bottleneck to model performance. The DIVA solver emerges as a clear outlier in terms of both model performance and its representation of the ice-flow physics itself.

scholarly journals The Experimental HWRF System: A Study on the Influence of Horizontal Resolution on the Structure and Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using an Idealized Framework

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762-1784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan ◽  
Frank Marks ◽  
Xuejin Zhang ◽  
Jian-Wen Bao ◽  
Kao-San Yeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Weather Research

Abstract Forecasting intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a complex and challenging multiscale problem. While cloud-resolving numerical models using a horizontal grid resolution of 1–3 km are starting to show some skill in predicting the intensity changes in individual cases, it is not clear at this time what may be a reasonable horizontal resolution for forecasting TC intensity changes on a day-to-day-basis. The Experimental Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System (HWRFX) was used within an idealized framework to gain a fundamental understanding of the influence of horizontal grid resolution on the dynamics of TC vortex intensification in three dimensions. HWFRX is a version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model specifically adopted and developed jointly at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) for studying the intensity change problem at a model grid resolution of about 3 km. Based on a series of numerical experiments at the current operating resolution of about 9 km and at a finer resolution of about 3 km, it was found that improved resolution had very little impact on the initial spinup of the vortex. An initial axisymmetric vortex with a maximum wind speed of 20 m s−1 rapidly intensified to 50 m s−1 within about 24 h in either case. During the spinup process, buoyancy appears to have had a pivotal influence on the formation of the warm core and the subsequent rapid intensification of the modeled vortex. The high-resolution simulation at 3 km produced updrafts as large as 48 m s−1. However, these extreme events were rare, and this study indicated that these events may not contribute significantly to rapid deepening. Additionally, although the structure of the buoyant plumes may differ at 9- and 3-km resolution, interestingly, the axisymmetric structure of the simulated TCs exhibited major similarities. Specifically, the similarities included a deep inflow layer extending up to about 2 km in height with a tangentially averaged maximum inflow velocity of about 12–15 m s−1, vertical updrafts with an average velocity of about 2 m s−1, and a very strong outflow produced at both resolutions for a mature storm. It was also found in either case that the spinup of the primary circulation occurred not only due to the weak inflow above the boundary layer but also due to the convergence of vorticity within the boundary layer. Nevertheless, the mature phase of the storm’s evolution exhibited significantly different patterns of behavior at 9 and 3 km. While the minimum pressure at the end of 96 h was 934 hPa for the 9-km simulation, it was about 910 hPa for the 3-km run. The maximum tangential wind at that time showed a difference of about 10 m s−1. Several sensitivity experiments related to the initial vortex intensity, initial radius of the maximum wind, and physics were performed. Based on ensembles of simulations, it appears that radial advection of the tangential wind and, consequently, radial flux of vorticity become important forcing terms in the momentum budget of the mature storm. Stronger convergence in the boundary layer leads to a larger transport of moisture fluxes and, subsequently, a stronger storm at higher resolution.

Extreme convection in the Lofoten Basin of the Norwegian Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandr M. Fedorov ◽  
Roshin P. Raj ◽  
Tatyana V. Belonenko ◽  
Elena V. Novoselova ◽  
Igor L. Bashmachnikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Convection Current ◽  
Mixing Depth ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Strong Convection ◽  
Composite Maps

<p>One of the factors affecting the variability of the global climate is strong oceanic convection. Current research declares the results of the investigation on the extreme convection in the Lofoten Basin (LB) using the Argo profilers data. The most common parameter reflecting the convection intensity is Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). In the frames of the understudied period, MLD exceeds 1000 m in March-April and December 2010 in the Lofoten Basin Eddy (LBE), whereas the average MLD is about 200 m and rarely exceeds 400 m in the basin. Water volume formed at mid-depth of the central LB, between 1000 m depth and the isosteric surface s07 is connected with the extreme convection events. We analytically assess the final mixing depth that corresponds well to measured values of the MLD. Such a correspondence indicates the variations in the buoyancy flux and stratification as the main reasons for MLD variability in the LB. We easily explain this variability due to heat release in the basin. Atmospheric patterns during the extreme convection are described. It occurs that northerly winds are as common as dominating south-westerly winds during the months with extreme convection. 32 cases of extreme convective events with MLD exceeding 350 m were analyzed and we reveal that correspondent composite maps of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and surface heat flux match well NAO-/EAP- atmospheric pattern in the Northern Atlantic, while negative NAO pattern prevails in climate during winter-spring. We define the heat release as the major trigger of strong convection. Heat release associated with extreme convection events in the LB is twice stronger than usual.</p>

scholarly journals Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3827-3847 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Allen ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Kevin J. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980–2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0–6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.

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