Export Trend of Ready Made Garments (RMG) Sector of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
M. S. Hossain ◽  
M. T. Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Significant Upward Trend ◽  
The Government

Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector has greater importance than any other sector in Bangladesh in terms of growth, employment, foreign exchange earnings and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The objective of this study is to determine the export trend of the RMG sector in Bangladesh by using different trend models. To serve the objectives of the study, time-series data of RMG sectors has been used for the period 1985-2018. Among several trend models, the Semi-log Parabolic Trend model is found to be the best-fitted model for determining the trend of RMG exports. From the empirical results of the study, it is observed that RMG exports have a significant upward trend for the period 1985-2018 with a growth rate of 8.76 % in 2018. The forecasted RMG export will be nearly 31712.82 million USD in the financial year 2022-23. The findings of the study will help the government, NGO’s and policymakers to undertake necessary steps for the progress of this sector.

scholarly journals Aquaculture Production and Consumption of Fish in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Dhanya Sai Das ◽  
R Govindasamy
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Food Protein ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Total Fish ◽  
The Government

Aquaculture and fisheries emerged as an important source of food, protein, nutrition, livelihood and employment for the majority of the rural population. The fisheries sector has registered a sustainable and astounding growth rate over the last decade. The sector offers an attractive and promising future for employment, livelihood and food security. The study is based on the available secondary data from different aspects of fishery statistics published in Handbook on Fisheries Statistics 2020 by the Government of India and other related articles. Data for the time series analysis was taken from 2001-02 to 2017-18. It is found that the world per capita apparent consumption of fish has been increased by 10.4 kg from the 1960s (i.e., 9.9 kg) to 2016 (i.e., 20.30 kg). By analysing the time-series data, it is evident that the total fish production, including both marines and inland, has shown an astounding growth with a Compound Growth Rate of 4.58. The regression equation was Y = 5.182X – 12267, R2 value was 0.9414 where Y is the total fish production (dependent variable) and X is the total fish seed production (independent variable). There exists a positive relationship between fish seed and fish production in the country. It can be concluded that aquaculture plays a significant role in the country’s GDP rate and food security.

scholarly journals Declining Proportion of Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism to Gross Domestic Product in Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
Deo Narayan Sutihar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Interdisciplinary Studies ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data

This article attempts to estimate annual declining trend of proportion of foreign exchange earnings from tourism to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nepal and test the significance of declining trend of this ratio using time series data of 20 years from FY 1991/92 to FY 2010/11l. It has been that the declining trend of foreign exchange earnings from tourism to GDP ratio is significant. The inequality in the distribution of foreign exchange earnings from tourism to GDP ratio is tolerable. Janapriya Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Vol. 2, No.1 (December 2013), page: 45-50

scholarly journals The Effect of IJ-EPA to Indonesia Export: Interupted Time Series (ITS) Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-145
Author(s):  
Yuafanda Kholfi Hartono ◽  
Sumarto Eka Putra
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) is a bilateral free-trade agreement between Indonesia and Japan that has been started from July 1st, 2008. After more than a decade of its implementation, there is a question that we need to be addressed: Does liberalization of IJ-EPA make Indonesia’s export to Japan increase? This question is important since the government gives a trade-off by giving lower tariff for certain commodities agreed in agreement to increase export. Using Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis based on time-series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), this article found that the impact of IJ-EPA decreased for Indonesia export to Japan. Furthermore, this paper proposed some potential commodities that can increase the effectiveness of this FTA. The importance of this topic is that Indonesia will maximize the benefit in implementing of agreement that they made from the third biggest destination export of their total export value, so it will be in line with the government's goal to expand export market to solve current account deficit. In addition, the method that used in this paper can be implemented to other countries so that they can maximize the effect of Free Trade Agreement, especially for their export.

scholarly journals PERAMALAN EKSPOR NONMIGAS DENGAN VARIASI KALENDER ISLAM MENGGUNAKAN X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (Studi Kasus: Ekspor Nonmigas Periode Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2017)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-247
Author(s):  
Eka Lestari ◽  
Tatik Widiharih ◽  
Rita Rahmawati
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Decomposition Method ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Holiday Effect ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Loading And Unloading

Non-oil and gas exports are one of the largest foreign exchange earners for Indonesia. Non-oil and gas exports always experience a decline in the month of Eid Al-Fitr due to delays in the delivery of export goods because the loading and unloading of goods at the port is reduced during Eid Al-Fitr. The shift of the Eid Al-Fitr month on the data will form a pattern or season with an unequal period called the moving holiday effect. The time series forecasting method that usually used the ARIMA method. Because the ARIMA method only suitable for time series data with the same seasonal period and can’t handle the moving holiday effect, the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS method used two steps. First, regARIMA modeling is a linear regression between time series data and the weight of Eid Al-Fitr and the residuals follow the ARIMA process. The weighting is based on three conditions, namely pre_holiday, post_holiday, and multiple. Second, X-12-ARIMA decomposition method for seasonal adjustments that produces trend-cycle components, seasonal, and irregular. Based on the analysis carried out on the monthly non-oil and gas export data for the period January 2013 to December 2017, the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (1,1,0) model was obtained in the post_holiday condition as the best model. The forecasting results in 2018 show the largest decline in non-oil and gas exports in June 2018 which coincided with the Eid Al-Fitr holiday. MAPE value of 10.90% is obtained which shows that the forecasting ability is good.Keywords:  time series, non-oil and gas, X-13-ARIMA-SEATS, moving holiday

scholarly journals CAN REMITTANCES BOOST TAX REVENUES IN ZIMBABWE? A SECONDARY QUARTERLY TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-144
Author(s):  
Michael Takudzwa Pasara ◽  
◽  
Michael Zuze ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
The Government

The study applied the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique on quarterly time-series data to analyze if remittances can boost tax revenue in Zimbabwe. The main challenge faced in Zimbabwe is the insufficient tax revenues to finance growing public spending needs. Results indicate that the share of remittances both in the current and lagged period significantly influenced income tax revenue and the volume of manufacturing. Trade openness was found to be insignificant. Similar results were also observed for the variables when value-added tax to total revenue was the dependent variable. When lagged variables were taken into account, results showedthat only remittances were significant. Thus, increased remittance inflows have significant potential to generate more taxes for the government through income and consumption taxes. The study recommends the creation of platforms, which stimulate and attract more remittances, such as reducing costs of sending remittances through formal channels. Secondly, good governance and quality institutions provide appropriate economic environment and growth policies. Economic growth fosters increased and sustainable tax due to an increased tax base.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO (PDB), DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP TABUNGAN MUDHARABAH PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH (PERIODE 2013-2017)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 138
Author(s):  
Rita Nur Wahyuningrum ◽  
Aan Zainul Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Central Statistics

<p>This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) and rupiah exchange rate on Mudharabah savings in Islamic banking in Indonesia. The data used is time series data for the period March 2013 to September 2017, which was published by Bank Indonesia from the Islamic Banking Statistics Report and the Central Statistics Agency. The technique of analyzing the research is qualitative with the method of Multiple Linear Regression. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously the Inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Exchange Rate variables together have a significant effect on Mudharabah Savings. While partially only the Exchange Rate variable has a significant effect on Mudharabah Savings. Inflation Variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have no significant effect on Mudharabah Savings.</p><p> </p><p>Keyword: inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, mudharabah saving</p>

scholarly journals PERAMALAN GARIS KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN PURBALINGGA TAHUN 2021-2023 DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING LINIER SATU PARAMETER DARI BROWN

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Dwi Anggraeni ◽  
Sri Maryani ◽  
Suseno Ariadhy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Poverty Line ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trend Coefficient

Poverty is a major problem in a country. The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty. The main problem faced in poverty alleviation is the large number of people living below the poverty line. Therefore, this study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the next three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation. The method used in this study is a one-parameter linear double exponential smoothing from Brown. The software used in this research is Zaitun Time Series and Microsoft Excel. The steps taken are determining the forecasting objectives, plotting time series data, determining the appropriate method, determining the optimum parameter value, calculating the single exponential smoothing value, calculating double exponential smoothing value, calculate the smoothing constant value, calculate the trend coefficient value and perform forecasting. Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with MAPE value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance. The forecast value of the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for 2021 is Rp. 396,516, in 2022 it is Rp. 417,818, and in 2023 it is Rp. 439,120.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUBSIDI BBM TERHADAP IMPOR MINYAK BUMI PERIODE 1980 – 2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Riwi Sumantyo ◽  
Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Data Use ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

The study on the effect of fuel subsidies toward oil import is a controversial topicdiscussions. This study will explore the effect of fuel subsidies on oil import by addingseveral independent variables, consist of; the number of vehichles, the exchange rateand inflation. Data use time series data from 1980-2013. The tool of analyze is OrdinaryLeast Squares Method (OLS).Based on the results show that the simultaneous testexplains that the fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, the exchange rate, and inflationhave a significant effect on oil import. However partially, the variables of fuel subsidies,the number of vehichles, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effecton oil import. Inflation does not affect on oil import. The coefficient of determinationuses Adjusted R-square test is about 98%. The implication of this study is governmentscan increase oil production Indonesia. The government should facilitate the licensing ofinvestment and rejuvenate the old oil wells. It aims to reduce Indonesia dependence onoil import so that it can save foreign exchange reserves.

Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

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