Application of Altman Modified Z-Score to Predict Financial Distress in the Indonesian Telecommunications Industry

Bankruptcy prediction is needed to assess the prospect of going concern and sustainability of the corporations in the future. This study aims to predict the bankruptcy of corporates with the Altman Z-Score Modification model in the telecommunications industry in Indonesia. The data used are the financial statements of the telecommunications industry that listing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2011-2015. Samples for this study uses purposive sampling according to company criteria. The results of the study using the Altman Z-score modification method found two potentially bankrupt companies, namely Bakrie Telecom, Tbk, and Smartfren, Tbk. While Indosat, Tbk, and XL Axiata, Tbk have high financial distress potential due to liquidity and profitability problems that tend to weaken. Meanwhile, Telkom Indonesia, Tbk, and Infracom Inovisi financial concessions are relatively healthy and have the right business expectations

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PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN MODEL SPRINGATE PADA INDUSTRI TELEKOMUNIKASI

JEBA (Journal of Economics and Business Aseanomics) ◽

10.33476/jeba.v3i1.740 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Riani Fifrianti ◽

Perdana Wahyu Santosa

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Financial Risk ◽

Sampling Method ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Telecommunications Industry ◽

Bankruptcy Prediction ◽

Bankruptcy Problem ◽

Financial Condition

This study purposes to analyze of corporate bankruptcy prediction of telecommunication industry in Indonesia with Springate model. The data used in the form of financial statements published by the telecommunications industry at Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2009-2013 period. The sampling technique of this study was determined by purposive sampling method for six samples from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The results using Springate model shows that two companies, PT Bakrie Telecom, Tbk and PT Smartfren, Tbk could potentially bankrupt in the future and three companies For PT Indosat, Tbk, PT XL Axiata, Tbk and PT Inovisi Infracom, Tbk are classified have financial distress problem. The company that very good results is PT Telekom Indonesia, Tbk and categorized has no bankruptcy problem. In general analysis telecommunication caompany have no good financial condition because business risk and financial risk are higher relatively than other industry.

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ANALISIS ALTMAN Z-SCORE, GROVER SCORE, SPRINGATE, DAN ZMIJEWSKI SEBAGAI SIGNALING FINANCIAL DISTRESS (Studi Empiris Industri Barang-Barang Konsumsi di Indonesia)

Accounting and Management Journal ◽

10.33086/amj.v1i1.70 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Niken Savitri Primasari

Keyword(s):

Prediction Model ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Bankruptcy Prediction ◽

T Test ◽

Z Score ◽

F Test ◽

Company Sector ◽

Altman Model

This study purpose to determine whether there are differences among Altman model, Springate model and Zmijewski model to predict financial distress, and to find out which the Financial Distress prediction model has the most excellent implementation in Indonesia manufacture industry. Comparison of those six models were made by analyzing the accuracy of each model, by using the real condition of a company’s net income. The data used in the form of annual financial statements published by the company on the Indonesia Stock Exchange website. The sample in this study consisted of 116 financial data from 29 companies in Consumer Goods Industry. All companies are listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange Market at period 2012 - 2015. The company does not conclude yet, whether there is a prediction model that best suit the measurement. This cause by: (1) every model have its own superiority and weakness, (2) the company sample characteristic differences (company sector, company size) also influence the choice of prediction model being used, (3) the company financial ratio as independent variable used in bankruptcy prediction. Since the financial statements are reflecting the company’s financial ability of the signaling, the researchers limited the industry with the highest value of EPS and PER. This is done to avoid confounders in the proof of the accuracy of the model, Springate model, Ohlson model and Zmijewski model to predict financial distress. The data obtained from the Annual Financial Statements, IDX Fact Book and the Indonesian Capital Market Directory. In this study will be used t test, additional testing is done to see the feasibility of the model by observing the F test results and test the coefficient of determination (R2), R2 value used to examine differences among Altman, Grover, Springate and Zmijewski models in predicting financial distress. The analytical tool used is the One Way ANOVA with level of significance 5 %. The results from this research showed that any prediction model used in this study can be used to predict Financial Distress, particularly the Altman Z-Scores, which have the greater R2 analysis. Only Grover G-Score models have insignificant value t test and F-test is greater than the probability cannot be used to predict corporate Financial Distress. The results also showed that the most accurate model is the model Altman Z-Score. At the end of the study was to try predict 29 firms sample used listed on the Stock Exchange with Altman model. Predicted results showed that five companies are expected to experience Financial Distress in the future.

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ANALISIS FINANCIAL DISTRESS DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS PADA EMITEN ROKOK PERIODE 2014-2018

J-MACC : Journal of Management and Accounting ◽

10.52166/j-macc.v4i1.2401 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 16-27

Author(s):

Ani Wahyuningsih ◽

Hartono Hartono ◽

Rini Armin

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Bankruptcy Prediction ◽

Correct Prediction ◽

Financial Health ◽

Z Score ◽

Financial Difficulties

ABSTRACT Financial Distress is a condition of financial difficulties where if this happens to the company foa along period of time, the company is in the initial stages before bankruptcy. Bankruptcy is a state of being or a situation in which company failed to or not able to meet obligations because firm experienced lack of. If the company goes bankrupt there will be many parties who are harmed. Therefore it is necessary to conduct financial distress analysis for early warning. The research aims to determine the financial health of the cigarette sub-sector companies by analyzing financial distress using three bankruptcy prediction models with Altman Z-Score, Springate, Grover and to determine which of these three models has the highest level of accuracy. The data used in this research is the company’s financial statements published on the Indonesia Stock Exchange website. The population in this research is the cigarette sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2014-2018 period. Based on the result of research shows that in the calculation Altman and Springate models, PT. Bentoel International Investama in the category of the company experiencing symptoms of bankruptcy. While in the Grover model calculation, all companies fall into category healthy companies. Of the three models that have the highest level of accuracy are Altman and Springate models by one hundred percent. This shows that Altman and Springate models have the correct prediction of the company correctly.

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Analisis Perbandingan Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Rokok Periode 2015-2019

Business Innovation and Entrepreneurship Journal ◽

10.35899/biej.v3i3.304 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 157-163

Author(s):

Anang Makruf ◽

Deni Ramdani

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Market Value ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

Z Score ◽

Book Value ◽

Purposive Sampling ◽

Quantitative Models ◽

A Company ◽

Analyze Data

Abstract – The aim of the study was to analyze financial distress in cigarette companies list in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019 using 3 methods, Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate. Purposive sampling is used in this study to determine the sampling technique. The sample used in this study released 4 cigarette companies. Descriptive asalysis with quantitative models was used to analyze data in this research. Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate in 2015-2019 PT. HM Sampoerna Tbk, PT. Gudang Garam Tbk, and PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk is related to safe, but it is needed a company that is estimated to be grey in the Altman Z-Score calculation in 2018, PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. The Z-score is at the limit because the companie has a ratio with a lower value in market value of equity to book value of liabilities Abstrak – Penelitian ini memiliki bertujuan untuk menganalisis perbandingan kesulitan keuangan dalam perusahaan sun sektor rokok di Indonesia Stock Exchange periode 2015-2019 menggunakan tiga metode. Metode yang digunakan yaitu Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, dan Springate. Purposive sampling digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk menentukan teknik pengambilan sampel. Sampel yang digunakan berjumlah 4 perusahaan rokok. Analisis deskriptif dengan pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan sebagai teknik analisis data. Dalam penelitian ini menjelaskan financial distress yang dihitung menggunakan metode Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski , dan Springate pada tahun 2015-2019 PT. HM Sampoerna Tbk, PT. Gudang Garam Tbk, dan PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk mengalami dalam kondisi keuangan yang sehat, namun terdapat perusahaan yang diestimasi rawan kebangkrutan pada perhitungan Altman Z-Score pada tahun 2018 yaitu PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. hal ini dapat terjadi karena nilai Z-Score PT. Wismilak Inti MakmurTbk berada pada Z < 1,81 salah satu penyebabnya ialah rendahnya rasio market value of equity terhadap liabilities.

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ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEPAILITAN PADA BANK UMUM SWASTA NASIONAL DEVISA YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2010 – 2013

Jurnal REKSA Rekayasa Keuangan Syariah dan Audit ◽

10.12928/j.reksa.v4i1.42 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 93

Author(s):

Sumaniyatun Fadhilah ◽

Indah Kurniawati

Keyword(s):

Commercial Bank ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Bankruptcy Prediction ◽

Z Score ◽

Working Capital ◽

Purposive Sampling ◽

Gray Area ◽

Private Banks

The purpose of this study is to assess bankruptcy prediction in the National Private Banks Foreign Exchange listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange. This study uses the size of liquidity ratio of working capital to total assets. This study uses the find were the purposive sampling. The population in this study is the National Private Commercial Bank Foreign Exchange listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of the study, namely between 2010 until 2013. The sample amounted to 21 banks during the 4 years that have been selected based on specific criteria. Based on the results of the analysis carried out stating that the National Private Commercial Bank Foreign Exchange listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2010 there were 29 % of banks that are insolvent, 71 % of banks that are in the gray area, and no banks that are in not bankruptcy predictions. In 2011 29 % of banks that are insolvent, 67 % of banks that are in the gray area and 5 % are located on the banks not bankruptcy prediction. In 2012 29 % of banks that are insolvent, 67 % of banks that are in the gray area, and 5 % of banks that are in the prediction of the bank is not bankrup. In 2013 29 % of banks that are in bankruptcy prediction, 71 % of banks that are in the gray area, and there are no banks that are in not bankruptcy predictions. There is no difference in Z-score on bankruptcy prediction National Private Banks Foreign Exchange Listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange between 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

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PENGARUH KINERJA KEUANGAN, RISK BASED CAPITAL, UKURAN PERUSAHAAN DAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP FINANCIAL DISTRESS

Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan ◽

10.26418/jebik.v10i1.44793 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 55

Author(s):

Agustina Nilasari

Keyword(s):

Firm Size ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Annual Report ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Insurance Company ◽

Z Score ◽

Research Information ◽

Purposive Sampling

ABSTRACTThis research intends to examine the effect of insurance company financial ratios, namely solvency margin ratio, risk based capital, firm size, inflation and exchange rate on the estimated financial distress of life insurance companies. As well as general public listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2015 to 2019. This research is important considering that there have been cases of default by insurance companies. The research information in this research is secondary data obtained in the annual report which is sourced from BEI website and insurance company websites. The sample technique in this research is a purposive sampling technique, there are 35 samples that meet the standards to become samples. Insurance companies experiencing financial distress are determined based on the non-manufacturing Altman Z-score method. Multiple linear regression is the research technique chosen by researchers. This research results in the conclusion that only the firm size variable has an influence on financial distress estimates. The independent variables are able to explain the financial distress variable as much as 32.8%, the deficiency as much as 67.2%, which illustrates the variables that cannot be taken into account in the analysis of this study. ABSTRAKRiset ini bermaksud untuk menelaah pengaruh rasio keuangan perusahaan asuransi yakni solvency margin ratio (SMR), risk based capital (RBC), ukuran perusahaan (UK), inflasi (INF) serta nilai tukar (NT) terhadap perkiraan timbulnya keadaan financial distress perusahaan asuransi jiwa serta umum yang tercatat pada Bursa Efek Indonesia dari rentang waktu 2015 sampai 2019. Penelitian ini penting mengingat adanya kasus gagal bayar perusahaan asuransi. Informasi penelitian di dalam riset ini merupakan data sekunder yang didapatkan pada annual report yang bersumber dari website BEI serta website perusahaan asuransi. Teknik sampel di dalam riset ini merupakan teknik purposive sampling, terdapat 35 sampel yang memenuhi standar untuk menjadi sampel. Perusahaan asuransi yang mengalami financial distress ditentukan berdasarkan metode Altman Z-score non manufaktur. Regresi linier berganda menjadi teknik penelitian yang dipilih oleh peneliti. Riset ini menghasilkan kesimpulan bahwa hanya variabel ukuran perusahaan (UK) yang ada pengaruh terhadap perkiraan financial distress. Variabel bebas mampu memaparkan variabel financial distress sebanyak 32,8%, kekurangan sebanyak 67,2% digambarkan variabel yang tidak dapat diperhitungkan di dalam analisis penelitian ini.

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PREDIKSI MODEL FINANCIAL DISTRESS (KEBANGKRUTAN) PADA PERUSAHAAN RITEL BURSA EFEK DENGAN MODEL ALTMAN DAN SPRINGATE INDONESIA PERIODE 2012-2016

account ◽

10.32722/acc.v6i1.1376 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Husnil Barry

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Retail Industry ◽

Z Score ◽

The Future

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi model kebangkuratn yang paling powerfulluntuk perusahaan ritel di Indonesia dan memprediksi kondisi perusahaan yang akan mengalamikebangkrutan masa yang akan datang. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu Altman ZScoredan Springate. Hasil dari model tersebut adalah dapat diketahui kondisi-kondisi perusahaantersebut sehat atau diambang kebangkrutan. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berjumlah 25perusahaan yang termasuk dalam industri ritel yang sudah listing di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun2012-2016. Kata kunci: Altman, Springate, Financial Distress. ABSTRACT This study aims to identify the most powerful disaster models for retail companies inIndonesia and to predict the condition of companies that will experience bankruptcy in the future. Themodel used in this study is Altman Z-Score and Springate. The results of the model are the conditionsof the company, the health or whether they are on the verge of bankruptcy are identified. The dataused in this was 25 companies retail industry that had been listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in2012-2016. Kata kunci: Altman, Springate, Financial Distress.

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FINANCIAL DISTRESS PREDICTION AND SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE ALTMAN RATIO ON COMPANY FINANCIAL DISTRESS

Journal of Business Economics ◽

10.35760/eb.2018.v23i3.1832 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 236-243

Author(s):

Hadhi Dharmaputra Juliyan ◽

Bertilia Lina Kusrina

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Bankruptcy Prediction ◽

Z Score ◽

Large Role ◽

Corporate Bankruptcy ◽

Mining Companies ◽

Financial Distress Prediction ◽

Distress Prediction ◽

Score Model

This research aims to determine the level of the bankruptcy of the company and to see if the Altman ratio can predict the condition of corporate bankruptcy in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange because mining companies have a large role in the Indonesian economy. This study uses the Altman Z-Score model analysis to see how much the company's bankruptcy prediction and uses logistic regression to see how much the influence of the Altman ratio in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Keywords: financial distress, the Altman z–score, bankruptcy prediction

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ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN BERDASARKAN METODE ALTMAN Z-SCORE (STUDI KASUS PADA BANK BUMN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI)

Buletin Studi Ekonomi ◽

10.24843/bse.2019.v24.i02.p03 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 191

Author(s):

I Komang Try Satriawan Korry ◽

Made Pratiwi Dewi ◽

Ni Luh Anik Puspa Ningsih

Keyword(s):

Financial Distress ◽

Deposit Insurance ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Bankruptcy Prediction ◽

Z Score ◽

Gray Area ◽

Analysis Technique ◽

Score Method

Abstract: Bankruptcy Prediction Analysis Based on the Altman Z-Score Method (Case Study ofState-Owned Banks Registered on the IDX). Bankruptcy phenomena can occur in every company.Based on data from the Deposit Insurance Agency (LPS), there were 90 banks liquidated since 2005 until mid-2018. Based on the phenomenon of bankruptcy that occurred, it was important for banks to be no exception for state-owned banks to recognize the symptoms of financial distress thatled to bankruptcy. The purpose of this study was to determine the prediction of bankruptcy basedon the Altman Z-Score method on state-owned banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).The data analysis technique used in this study is descriptive analysis techniques. The sample inthis study used four state-owned banks, namely Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia,Bank Tabungan Nasional, and Bank Mandiri with the technique of determining saturated samplingsamples and the data used were financial statements for the 2014-2017 period obtained throughofficial IDX sites (www.idx.co.id). The results of the study show that all state-owned banks are inthe gray area for the period of 2014-2017 because the value of the Z-score obtained is between 1.1and 2.6.

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Using Beneish M-Score and Altman Z-Score models to detect financial fraud and company failure

Tekstilna industrija ◽

10.5937/tekstind2104020k ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 69 (4) ◽

pp. 20-29

Author(s):

Snežana Knežević ◽

Marko Špiler ◽

Marko Milašinović ◽

Aleksandra Mitrović ◽

Stefan Milojević ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Financial Reporting ◽

Financial Distress ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Z Score ◽

Fraudulent Financial Reporting ◽

Financial Decisions ◽

Score Model ◽

A Company

Bankruptcy is a risk that any company can face, regardless of its size. The importance of predicting a company's bankruptcy for years before its development is enormous, and it is important for financial sustainability. Financial reporting is an important platform for making financial decisions of investors and creditors. In recent years, the frequency of false financial reporting by firms has increased and there are concerns about investors' confidence in capital market. Academics and industry experts adopt a variety of risk management techniques to detect fraudulent financial reporting. A case study was applied in this paper. Based on publicly available financial data (disclosed financial statements) of a domestic textile company for the period 2017-2020, whose shares are listed on the stock exchange, a survey was conducted based on the application of Altman's Z-Score model and Beneish M-Score model. Financial distress is an important criterion to monitor when assessing the likelihood of fraud reporting. When a company is operating poorly, there is a greater motivation to engage in fraudulent financial reporting. The findings show that the results differ according to the applied method in terms of identifying the possibility of bankruptcy and the possibility of fraud in the financial statements of the observed company. The results of the study can be important to investors, auditors, regulators, bankers, tax and other government bodies.

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