A Framework for Simulating Ecosystem Effects in Data-Poor Small-Scale Fisheries Using Science-Based and Local Ecological Knowledge-Based Models

The constant demand for seafood products and the undeniable effects of fishing on marine ecosystems make it urgent to implement an ecosystem approach, even in data-poor scenarios such as small-scale fisheries. Understanding the impacts of fishing is essential for promoting management strategies that prevent irreversible damage to marine ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem quantitative science-based models have been frequently used to evaluate the effects of fishing, although fishers’ local ecological knowledge (LEK) can aid the implementation of qualitative models, particularly in data-poor conditions. Here, we present a framework for simulating and assessing the effects of fishing following two strategies: (1) for both types of models, we simulated species removal scenarios, and (2) for quantitative science-based models, we fitted time series to dynamically assessed impacts. The impacts were analyzed through ecological indicators commonly used for quantitative models, and because these indicators cannot be easily estimated for qualitative models, we propose the use of topological indicators in both types of models. The approach was applied to three case studies of small-scale finfish fisheries in northwestern Mexico. We found that the ecosystem response to species removal was different in each case study and that the target species can play an important role in ecosystems, but their removal does not generate abrupt changes in the ecosystem structure. The quantitative science-based models were able to reproduce the historical catch trends, which allowed us to reveal that changes in ecosystems are indeed influenced by fishing effort but also by underlying primary productivity. Furthermore, topological and ecological indicators showed similar trends in the quantitative models, which suggests that the former could be useful when data-poor conditions allow only qualitative models. This result confirms the relevance of the participation of fishers in generating qualitative models and their decisive role in the discussion of co-management strategies and risk scenarios in a better-informed manner.

Emergence of Protests During The COVID-19 Pandemic: Quantitative Models To Explore The Contributions of Societal Conditions

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a resurgence of protests. Various societal conditions of social systems, such as economic stability, demographic ageing, and political elites, are often associated to the emergence of civil resistance movements. Several qualitative and quantitative models have been developed to analyse the relationship between societal conditions and the emergence of protests. The existing models use the underlying assumptions that these conditions operate in similar time-scales. However, the analysis of social systems also shows the importance of considering explicitly the inherent time-scales particularly slow-fast dynamics. The sudden and dramatic disruptive force of the pandemic has yield fine-grained data sets that can be used to better grasp the different dynamics of this social phenom. This paper proposes an integrated approach to explore the relationship between societal conditions and the emergence of protests in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, a literature based causal-loop-diagram is constructed to conceptualise the emergence of civil resistance as a result of intertwined dynamics. Based on the derived factors in the literature study, a data set is constructed to enable this analysis. Furthermore, by means of statistical and computational modelling we conduct a quantitative analysis in which we compare the emergence of protests for 27 countries during the pandemic. Also based on the factors found in literature we have constructed a system dynamics model that explicitly models the development of societal strains and social mobilisation in order to provide a better quantitative explanation of the emergence of protests. We found that while fast-changing factors are better estimators for ‘when’ civil resistance emerges, slow-changing factors are better estimators of ‘how’ civil resistance manifests itself in terms of the relative intensity of the protests in specific countries.

Mapping dynamical ejecta and disk masses from numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers

We present fitting formulae for the dynamical ejecta properties and remnant disk masses from the largest to date sample of numerical relativity simulations. The considered data include some of the latest simulations with microphysical nuclear equations of state (EOS) and neutrino transport as well as other results with polytropic EOS available in the literature. Our analysis indicates that the broad features of the dynamical ejecta and disk properties can be captured by fitting expressions, that depend on mass ratio and reduced tidal parameter. The comparative analysis of literature data shows that microphysics and neutrino absorption have a significant impact on the dynamical ejecta properties. Microphysical nuclear EOS lead to average velocities smaller than polytropic EOS, while including neutrino absorption results in larger average ejecta masses and electron fractions. Hence, microphysics and neutrino transport are necessary to obtain quantitative models of the ejecta in terms of the binary parameters.

Quantitative analysis of Cenozoic faults and fractures and their impact on groundwater flow in the bedrock aquifers of Ireland

Faults and fractures are a critical store and pathway for groundwater in Ireland’s limestone bedrock aquifers either directly as conductive structures or indirectly as the locus for the development of karst conduits. From the quantitative analysis of post-Devonian faults and fractures in a range of lithological sequences, this report describes the principal characteristics of Cenozoic strike-slip faults and joints, the youngest and the most intrinsically conductive fractures within Irish bedrock. Analysis of these structures in more than 120 outcrop, quarry, mine and cave locations in a range of bedrock types, provides a basis for: (1) definition of quantitative models for their depth dependency, lithological control, scaling systematics and links to preexisting structure, (2) conceptualisation of their impact on groundwater behaviour, and (3) estimation of groundwater flow parameters. The quantitative models provide constraints on fracture-controlled flow connectivity. Commonly observed decreases in sustainable flows and water strike interceptions with depth are attributed to increasing confinement and decreasing fracture connectivity and dissolution. Faults and joints have quite different end member geometries, with faults having strongly heterogeneous scale-independent properties and joints more often showing scale-dependent stratabound properties. The highest and most sustainable groundwater flows are usually associated with the complexity of structure of Cenozoic faults and of preexisting Carboniferous structures (on which conductive fracturing localises), enhanced by karstification and strongly jointed limestone bedrock particularly in the near-surface. Increased groundwater flow is promoted within bedded, rather than massive (i.e. unbedded), limestone sequences, characterised by bedding-parallel fractures and karst connecting otherwise subvertical fractures and subvertical wells.

Analisis Perbandingan Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Rokok Periode 2015-2019

– The aim of the study was to analyze financial distress in cigarette companies list in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019 using 3 methods, Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate. Purposive sampling is used in this study to determine the sampling technique. The sample used in this study released 4 cigarette companies. Descriptive asalysis with quantitative models was used to analyze data in this research. Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Springate in 2015-2019 PT. HM Sampoerna Tbk, PT. Gudang Garam Tbk, and PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk is related to safe, but it is needed a company that is estimated to be grey in the Altman Z-Score calculation in 2018, PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. The Z-score is at the limit because the companie has a ratio with a lower value in market value of equity to book value of liabilities Abstrak – Penelitian ini memiliki bertujuan untuk menganalisis perbandingan kesulitan keuangan dalam perusahaan sun sektor rokok di Indonesia Stock Exchange periode 2015-2019 menggunakan tiga metode. Metode yang digunakan yaitu Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, dan Springate. Purposive sampling digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk menentukan teknik pengambilan sampel. Sampel yang digunakan berjumlah 4 perusahaan rokok. Analisis deskriptif dengan pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan sebagai teknik analisis data. Dalam penelitian ini menjelaskan financial distress yang dihitung menggunakan metode Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski , dan Springate pada tahun 2015-2019 PT. HM Sampoerna Tbk, PT. Gudang Garam Tbk, dan PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk mengalami dalam kondisi keuangan yang sehat, namun terdapat perusahaan yang diestimasi rawan kebangkrutan pada perhitungan Altman Z-Score pada tahun 2018 yaitu PT. Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. hal ini dapat terjadi karena nilai Z-Score PT. Wismilak Inti MakmurTbk berada pada Z < 1,81 salah satu penyebabnya ialah rendahnya rasio market value of equity terhadap liabilities.

Plasticity Autowave Characteristics of Metals and the Periodic Table of Elements

In this paper, the general laws of localized plastic flow development are described for the linear work hardening stages of nineteen metals. The correlations are established and discussed between their element position in the periodic table of elements and the parameters of the autowave process of localized plastic flow in these elements. Patterns of plastic flow are considered for nineteen metals from the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th periods of the periodic table of elements. A conditional characteristic of plasticity is introduced and its relationship with the position of the metals in the periodic table of elements is established. Correlations between the plastic properties and other metal characteristics were analyzed. Some quantitative models are proposed for explaining the observed dependency origin by the drag of moving dislocation by electron gas in metal crystals. Observed correlations indicate the existence of a close bond between localized plastic flow in deforming medium with the lattice characteristics of the elements and their electron structures.