Fine-Tuning Climate Resilience in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems: The Need for Accurate Space-Time Representativeness to Identify Relevant Consequences and Responses

Climate change triggers a wide mosaic of regional and local responses, often different to the large-scale variability in magnitude and direction. Because of the psychological connections (cognitive and emotional) with the frequency, intensity and age of a climatic event, people may have the capacity to recognize key variations at lower scales, especially those from which they perceive risk. Yet, the anticipatory actions and social engagement to respond or adapt to climate change are difficult to achieve, mostly when there exists a long psychological distance to climatic phenomena. Research about climate change communication provides clues about the relevance of place-based discussion to gauge risk perception and improve response protocols, their design and prioritization. It argues that strategies and actions required to face climate risks may widely differ depending on the scale and accuracy of the local representations displayed during discussions of climate impacts. This work examines how local attributes (from climate to social) operate and control place-specific risks and priorities, by comparing coastal communities in two locations, Cabo Pulmo, Mexico and Zanzibar, Tanzania, which are subject to different climate dynamics. This paper discusses the need to identify relevant climate risks/responses at the local level and how psycho-social factors (e.g., psychological distance, collective memory, and social engagement) may operate positively for building climate resilience. We also illustrate a workflow to increase and enhance collaboration between researchers and local people by promoting dialogue, participation and narratives that rigorously consider the local knowledge.

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Informing UK governance of resilience to climate risks: improving the local evidence-base

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-020-02821-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 163 (1) ◽

pp. 499-520

Author(s):

Candice Howarth ◽

Sian Morse-Jones ◽

Andrew Kythreotis ◽

Katya Brooks ◽

Matt Lane

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Local Level ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Climate Change Risk ◽

Local Climate ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Local Evidence

AbstractInternational assessments of evidence on climate change (e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) or national climate change risk assessments (e.g. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, CCRA) do not offer a sufficiently granular perspective on climate impacts to adequately inform governance of resilience to climate risks at the local level. Using an analysis of UK decision-makers managing and responding to heatwaves and flood risks, this paper argues how more robust local evidence is needed to inform decision-making regarding adaptation options for enhancing local resilience. We identify evidence gaps and issues relating to local climate change impacts, including sources and quality of evidence used, adequacy and accessibility of evidence available, ill-communicated evidence and conflicting or misused evidence. A lack of appreciation regarding how scientific evidence and personal judgement can mutually enhance the quality of decision-making underpins all of these gaps. Additionally, we find that the majority of evidence currently used is reductively based upon socio-economic and physical characteristics of climate risks. We argue that a step change is needed in local climate resilience that moves beyond current physical and socio-economic risk characterisation to a more inclusive co-constitution of social and politically defined climate risks at the local scale that are better aligned with the local impacts felt and needs of stakeholders.

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Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

Journal of Tropical Medicine ◽

10.1155/2012/601242 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Oscar Daniel Salomón ◽

María Gabriela Quintana ◽

Andrea Verónica Mastrángelo ◽

María Soledad Fernández

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Local Level ◽

Point Of View ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Scale Models ◽

Vector Borne

Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

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Make Markets Work for Resilience

Building a Resilient Tomorrow ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190909345.003.0004 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 56-76

Author(s):

Hill and

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Large Scale ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Climate Risk ◽

Insurance Markets ◽

Risk Disclosure ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Systemic Level ◽

Bond Property

This chapter looks at how more transparent disclosure of climate risks can make markets work for resilience. In a world in which climate risk is reflected in the prices of assets traded in the market, everyone will be pressured to manage the risk and protect the value of their holdings. This chapter looks at four markets where we might expect climate risk disclosure to cause prices to change most readily: equities (company stocks), debt (bonds issued by companies and governments), property (real estate), and insurance. It argues that disclosure and better risk information can propel climate resilience at a systemic level, but it can also prove highly disruptive. Fear of disruption and its consequences has led different groups to throw sand into the gears to delay a day of reckoning, but that day is coming. If communities are unprepared, investors, banks, and insurance companies could panic and pull back indiscriminately from parts of the stock, bond, property, and insurance markets. The insights learned from these markets can illustrate how each could drive resilience on a large scale.

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Assessing the effects of climate change on US West Coast sablefish productivity and on the performance of alternative management strategies

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsz029 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 76 (6) ◽

pp. 1524-1542

Author(s):

Melissa A Haltuch ◽

Z Teresa A’mar ◽

Nicholas A Bond ◽

Juan L Valero

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

West Coast ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Impact ◽

Us West

Abstract US West Coast sablefish are economically valuable, with landings of 11.8 million pounds valued at over $31 million during 2016, making assessing and understanding the impact of climate change on the California Current (CC) stock a priority for (1) forecasting future stock productivity, and (2) testing the robustness of management strategies to climate impacts. Sablefish recruitment is related to large-scale climate forcing indexed by regionally correlated sea level (SL) and zooplankton communities that pelagic young-of-the-year sablefish feed upon. This study forecasts trends in future sablefish productivity using SL from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and explores the robustness of harvest control rules (HCRs) to climate driven changes in recruitment using management strategy evaluation (MSE). Future sablefish recruitment is likely to be similar to historical recruitment but may be less variable. Most GCMs suggest that decadal SL trends result in recruitments persisting at lower levels through about 2040 followed by higher levels that are more favorable for sablefish recruitment through 2060. Although this MSE suggests that spawning biomass and catches will decline, and then stabilize, into the future under both HCRs, the sablefish stock does not fall below the stock size that leads to fishery closures.

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A Moral Analysis of Carbon Majors' Role in Climate Change

Environmental Values ◽

10.3197/096327119x15579936382626 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 29 (2) ◽

pp. 175-195 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Marco Grasso ◽

Katia Vladimirova

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Business Model ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Vulnerable Groups ◽

Scale Transformation ◽

The Past ◽

Socially Vulnerable Groups ◽

Practical Implications

Two-thirds of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions over the past two centuries can be traced to the activities of a handful of companies ('carbon majors'). Based on their direct contribution to climate change in terms of carbon emissions and on a number of morally relevant facts, this article proposes a normative framework to establish the responsibilities that carbon majors have in relation to climate change. Then, the analysis articulates these responsibilities in the form of two duties: a duty of decarbonisation and a duty of reparation. The duty of decarbonisation entails a large-scale transformation that carbon majors ought to undergo in order to reduce and eventually eliminate carbon emissions from their entire business model. The duty of reparation implies rectification through disgorgement of funds for the wrongful actions of carbon majors, which resulted in negative climate impacts, starting from the most socially vulnerable groups affected by climate change. Finally, the article indicates possible practical implications of these duties.

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Introduction

Building a Resilient Tomorrow ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190909345.003.0001 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-14

Author(s):

Hill and

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

The United States ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Distant Future ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Building Resilience ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Once regarded as a threat in the distant future, the impacts of climate change are now daily new stories. The introduction defines resilience and argues that resilience is urgently needed in the United States and other places to enable communities to cope with the climate impacts they are already experiencing, as well as with future impacts. Building resilience is not a substitute for reducing greenhouse gas emissons, but it can blunt some of the worst impacts, save lives, and protect the most vulnerable in society. Insufficient progress in cutting emissions has made the resilience imperative all the more urgent. The introduction, lastly, explains the authors’ motivations for writing the book and provides an overview of ten lessons essential for advancing climate resilience.

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ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

10.5194/esd-2020-16 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Seaver Wang ◽

Zeke Hausfather

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Large Scale ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Feedbacks ◽

Positive Feedbacks ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Earth Systems ◽

Current Century ◽

Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Developing greater understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable climate tipping elements. We also evaluate which tipping elements are more imminent and whether shifts will likely manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements are significant to future global climate and will likely affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the current century. However, assessments under different emissions scenarios indicate a strong potential to reduce or avoid impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. Most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some tipping elements are perhaps more accurately termed climate feedbacks. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

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Enhancing Climate Resilience at NASA Centers: A Collaboration between Science and Stewardship

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-12-00169.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 95 (9) ◽

pp. 1351-1363 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽

Radley M. Horton ◽

Daniel A. Bader ◽

Molly E. Brown ◽

Russell DeYoung ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Local Level ◽

Natural Habitat ◽

The United States ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Kennedy Space

A partnership between Earth scientists and institutional stewards is helping the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepare for a changing climate and growing climate-related vulnerabilities. An important part of this partnership is an agency-wide Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) Workgroup. CASI has thus far initiated 1) local workshops to introduce and improve planning for climate risks, 2) analysis of climate data and projections for each NASA Center, 3) climate impact and adaptation toolsets, and 4) Center-specific research and engagement. Partnering scientists with managers aligns climate expertise with operations, leveraging research capabilities to improve decision-making and to tailor risk assessment at the local level. NASA has begun to institutionalize this ongoing process for climate risk management across the entire agency, and specific adaptation strategies are already being implemented. A case study from Kennedy Space Center illustrates the CASI and workshop process, highlighting the need to protect launch infrastructure of strategic importance to the United States, as well as critical natural habitat. Unique research capabilities and a culture of risk management at NASA may offer a pathway for other organizations facing climate risks, promoting their resilience as part of community, regional, and national strategies.

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Making the climate crisis personal through a focus on human health

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-03107-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 166 (3-4) ◽

Author(s):

Vijay S. Limaye

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Human Health ◽

Climate Science ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Health Impacts ◽

Specific Information ◽

Local Health ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Climate Crisis

AbstractClimate change–driven health impacts are serious, widespread, and costly. Importantly, such damages are largely absent from policy debates around the costs of delay and inaction on this crisis. While climate change is a global problem, its impacts are localized and personal, and there is growing demand for specific information on how climate change affects human health in different places. Existing research indicates that climate-fueled health problems are growing, and that investments in reducing carbon pollution and improving community resilience could help to avoid tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in climate-sensitive health impacts across the USA each year, including those stemming from extreme heat, air pollution, hurricanes, and wildfires. Science that explores the underappreciated local health impacts and health-related costs of climate change can enhance advocacy by demonstrating the need to both address the root causes of climate change and enhance climate resilience in vulnerable communities. The climate crisis has historically been predominantly conceived as a global environmental challenge; examination of climate impacts on public health enables researchers to localize this urgent problem for members of the public and policymakers. In turn, approaches to climate science that focus on health can make dangerous climate impacts and the need for cost-effective solutions more salient and tangible.

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Cassava Farmers’ Perception on Climate Change: A Case Study in Van Yen District, Yen Bai Province

Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences ◽

10.31817/vjas.2020.3.3.04 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 700-711

Author(s):

Nguyen Hai Nui ◽

Vu Thanh Bien ◽

Nguyen Duc Trung ◽

Trieu Hong Lua ◽

Nguyen Tuan Cuong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Governments ◽

Structural Equation ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Partial Least Square ◽

Least Square ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Support Programs ◽

Independent Variables ◽

Climate Risks

Situated in the Northern Mountain Region, one of the most climate-vulnerable regions of Vietnam, Yen Bai province is exposed to many climate risks. This study investigated how well Yen Bai farmers were aware of the impacts of the changing climate on production and their livelihoods and how they referred support programs from the central and local governments to make decisions on adaptation and resilience strategies. Data were collected through direct interviews of 488 cassava households in six communes of Van Yen district. Descriptive statistics, One-way ANOVA, and Chi-square test were used to statistically analyze the data. In addition, we employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to study the relationships of three identified independent variables: (i) understanding of support programs/policies; (ii) access to weather information; and (iii) experience of climate risks and impacts, and farmers’ perceptions of climate impacts. Results from the PLS-SEM model showed that farmers with higher positive scores in the three independent variables above had better perceptions of climate change and its possible impacts, from which better adaptation decisions and strategies could be derived. These research findings emphasized the need for improving the understanding of climate change that could impact farmers’ livelihoods, farmers’ access to accurate near-time and medium-term weather forecasts, and thoroughly using local knowledge on climate risks and effective native adaptation measures for better adaptation and mitigation strategies and actions in rural climate-vulnerable communities in Vietnam.

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